The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.
As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).
Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.
jt1983 at 10.45pm
I think you are too charitable to the so-called journalists. They have consistently minimised things problematic for the Coalition and maximised same for Labor. It is (and has been for a long time) beyond laziness. It is an hermeneutic priniciple.
Rough definition of ‘hermeneutic’: the colour glasses through which one looks at the world.
The vast majority of reporting this election has been through a Labor-phobic lense.
That lense may be changing in the last several days, but only because the weight of facts has become obviously overwhelming.
2019 began and ended as a ‘close race’ but the media failed to hold Morrison to account and tended to pile on into ‘Kill Bill’ stories. They weren’t lazy, they were (and are) biased.
This was absolutely not my area of maths – in fact I couldn’t really understand it at all and barely even considered it maths (applied maths like wave mechanics was my go)
Gödel’s incompleteness theorems.
To quote Wikipedia (which is actually brilliant for mathematics say compared to politics or even history!)
“ The first incompleteness theorem states that no consistent system of axioms whose theorems can be listed by an effective procedure (i.e., an algorithm) is capable of proving all truths about the arithmetic of natural numbers. For any such consistent formal system, there will always be statements about natural numbers that are true, but that are unprovable within the system.
The second incompleteness theorem, an extension of the first, shows that the system cannot demonstrate its own consistency.”
The only concept I ever took from this was that there would always be things that were ‘true but unprovable’ and I never really got further than that!
I was I think too much of a ‘concrete’ thinker for such ‘high falutin’ concepts!
If the lnp are really heading for defeat when will the wheels start to fall off the campaign…
What is the approach of the media if the next lot of polls just further reinforces a Labor lead of 6-10 percent?
The more pro Morrison elements go into pure scare campaign mode, or they start giving Team Albo more fairer coverage because the Murdochs and Kerry Stokes of this world realise Morrison is screwed?
@Woke – what do you call the last few days?
You don’t need to have a full-blown crash… I’ll be OK with a rickety jalopy.
Woke
I think Canavan trying to save the Nats’ backsides is a clear sign of panic.
I expect a few Libs to ‘go rogue’ soon also
Why yes Snappy Tom! Yes I do 🙂
”
Firefoxsays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:31 pm
Hot off the presses, the Greens preference recommendations for Richmond
”
Good onya Richmond Greens. 🙂
In 2019 Essential Poll came out weekly in the last three weeks of the campaign. I was hoping we might get one tonight.
Ven @ Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:31 pm:
Good to see Terry Sharples still in the saddle!
https://twitter.com/reardon_shaun/status/1519268790672191489?s=21&t=9Xu0yIlrGYGQume6rmQpgA
LNP candidate Stephanie Asher at #CorangamiteDebate :
“In regards to the boos & jeers, I’m not here to defend any government policies, I’m just the candidate.”
#auspol
”
nathsays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:39 pm
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:38 pm
I tweeted Elon Musk today and told him he should be less concerned with ‘Free Speech’ on Twitter and more concerned with the Truth!
_________
I’d back someone who wants Free Speech over someone who says they know the Truth! tbh.
”
Nath
Mahatma Gandhi said “Truth will set you free “.
I am really concerned about you.
… well @Woke – that’s certainly not reflecting a super road-worthy vehicle.
”
Mavissays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:45 pm
Upnorth:
You remind me of the dearly departed Kay Jay.
”
Mavis
Upnorth is very funny with his expression. He makes me laugh. He disarmed FF of all the people. Credit to him for that.
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 10:45 pm
Griff at 10.42pm
Do you love the smell of epistemology in the evening?
ชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชชช
Well this morning when I went to go Squid fishing there was a strong scent of deep fried frog near the pier when went out.
Thais’ never cease to amaze me. They party as much as Queenslanders but instead of a Chiko Roll or three day old fried saveloy from the servo after getting on the grog it’s a feed of fried frog and rice porridge. The frog coming from muddy rice paddies does give off an odious odour to we Westerners.
I can assure you it doesn’t taste like chicken.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:48 pm
nath @ #836 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 9:39 pm
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:38 pm
I tweeted Elon Musk today and told him he should be less concerned with ‘Free Speech’ on Twitter and more concerned with the Truth!
_________
I’d back someone who wants Free Speech over someone who says they know the Truth! tbh.
Not ‘Alternative Facts’. The Truth.
And what is ‘Free Speech’ anyway, as constructed by the Populist Authoritarian Right? It’s State Sanctioned Speech, where the State and their proxies control the Means of Production of ‘Free Speech’. If they don’t like what you’re saying, they cancel you. If they’re really worried about you and you haven’t been chilled by the power that they wield and the tools that they possess, then they send in the lawyers. Like they did against Shane Bazzi. And like they will entrench in law should the Coalition win the next election. Ditto the Republicans and Trump in the USA.
THAT’S what I mean.
”
C@tmomma
I repeat Mahatma Gandhi said that”Truth will set you free “.
Incidentally, if anyone wants some light bedtime reading on political epistemology I highly recommend Jacques Ellul’s Propaganda: The Formation of Men’s Attitudes (1965). It’s much less tedious than it sounds, I promise.
Ven says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 11:19 pm
”
Mavissays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:45 pm
Upnorth:
You remind me of the dearly departed Kay Jay.
”
Mavis
Upnorth is very funny with his expression. He makes me laugh. He disarmed FF of all the people. Credit to him for that.
ไม่ต้องทำยังไงให้ไม่รักไม่ต้องไป
That’s F hypen F to all!
Upnorth,
If not chicken, what does fried frog taste like?
It brings to mind an NT Govt minister, inteviewed on radio about the burgeoning crocodile meat industry, who said to his palate, croc tasted like a cross between fairy penguin and beef.
alias says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 11:25 pm
Upnorth,
If not chicken, what does fried frog taste like?
It brings to mind an NT Govt minister, inteviewed on radio about the burgeoning crocodile meat industry, who said to his palate, croc tasted like a cross between fairy penguin and beef.
=====================
Mud
haha… Woke-pc-thug, surely that’s a joke. I mean really…
It was real…. The lnp candidates are now distancing themselves from the party.
could today be the day the lnp lost the election?
Player One @ #640 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 3:26 pm
Probably because they don’t really give a shit about global warming, but they can pretend they do.
I dare say it’s inbuilt anti-Labor bias.
Liberal #1 voters who aren’t total sociopaths but are culturally unable to vote for Labor.
I grew up in that environment, and very nearly was one of those people.
Media bias is a problem, especially in News Corp, but I think what’s worse is how superficial the overall media reporting is. There doesn’t seem to be much analysis in the reporting it’s often just recapping daily events in a sports reporting manner rather than dealing with much substance, which does nothing to actually inform. I think people on Twitter jump on the ABC too much, sure they are not perfect – who is, but much, much better than most of the commercial media which is becoming more and more tabloid and brain-numbing with every passing year. SMH/The Age, The Guardian and Schwartz media are usually good. TV commercial news is unwatchable to me now.
Ven, Firefox
One Nation in Richmond clearly had a ‘cunning plan’ to fool the Greens with their very own hyphenated surname candidate!
Rocket Rocket says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 11:44 pm
Ven, Firefox
One Nation in Richmond clearly had a ‘cunning plan’ to fool the Greens with their very own hyphenated surname candidate!
========================
Rocket-Rocket – Greens may have made a massive error in Richmond choosing the wrong named candidate. Now this will confuse some of their voters.
This should go down well with the public if the corruption in the AFP can in anyway be linked to the Government. I am amazed that the AFP could find any evidence in the first place. They certainly can’t find any evidence that could convict any Coalition members as we all know.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-27/brittany-higgins-complains-afp-unlawfully-disclosed-evidence/101019424
Up-north
What is happening to us?
Can we stop with the jokes about hyphenated surnames.
Think about what you’re doing a little bit.
You just sound mysogynistic for criticising women for not taking their husband’s name (either the candidate or their mother).
It’s not funny. It’s not acceptable. Even if you think it’s just a harmless joke, it’s not.
Stop it! All of you.
nathsays:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 10:19 pm
Why isn’t Socrates getting in on this discussion about Truth. It’s all his namesake ever did, day after day.
Socrates is (getting in on).
You just don’t believe it.
A song for progressives on the hustings this election:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFptt7Cargc
Rocket Rocket says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 11:54 pm
Up-north
What is happening to us?
===============
Well brother we can’t join the Greens or now One Nation by the looks of it. Rugby Union is out of it unless you are a “Two Dads” I guess. And I am damned sure I’m not voting for the Tories or Clive.
For me brother I guess it’s Labor 1 and Rugby League in the football season and Cricket in the Cricket Season and shall it will always be. Never to live the high falutin hyphenated lifestyle.
Good song Griff, for those who are particularly annoyed I recommend:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8KQmps-Sog
high-falutin hyphenated life-style
I’ll let myself out.
Voice
I don’t think people should change their surnames (though in certain professions it can be useful to have two different surnames which is completely legal and can help prevent stalking). I realise then there still has to be a decision about children surnames – for which there is no ideal solution. The problem with double-barrelling them is what happens in the subsequent generations? Four names – eight? A person who was expert on coats of arms told me that this used to happen where the ‘shield’ got halved, then quartered – don’t know if it went further – and the process sometimes ended because some ‘Brave Sir Robin’ type came along and was essentially given a whole new ‘shield’ because of their exploits (he had nearly fought the Dragon of Agnor, and had nearly stood up to the vicious Chicken of Bristol)
Someone a few days ago talked about the family surnames being used as middle names – this has happened in the past in my family and spouse’s – I think sometimes especially for names that otherwise would have ‘died out’ if using the ‘male surname’ tradition. We have done a bit of that, as have some siblings.
Tom at 11.53pm
Another ‘fail’ by our esteemed police services.
Notice how the ‘fails’ tend to be in the same direction: favourable to the Right.
Total coincidence, of course. Definitely no hint of systemic bias. Whatsoever.
“Someone a few days ago talked about the family surnames being used as middle names”
I am afflicted by this. Have a last name as a middle name and a double barrelled surname to boot :‑|
And no I’m not an aristocrat – from a solidly working class family.
If people go the double barrelled route probably best just to follow the Spaniards and have one of the names passed on to the next gen…maybe whichever parent they prefer lol.
Voice endeavour
Musk bought Twitter specifically to enable bullying of the double hyphenated. This is our sad new reality.
Pi says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 12:09 am
high-falutin hyphenated life-style
I’ll let myself out.
================
Touché old man Touché
Commentariat Uprising says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 12:18 am
Voice endeavour
Musk bought Twitter specifically to enable bullying of the double hyphenated. This is our sad new reality.
====================
Well it’s better than bullying we who carry a few extra pounds………
@ Nath what’s Krogs saying cobber. You must have some sausage.
Damn Mexicans – gone to bed. Still think it’s daylight saving.
You’re 3 hours behind aren’t you? Do they have daylight saving in Thailand in their summer?
This is the season for bad colds in Melbourne – similar to UK’s experience last winter. It may be due to so little exposure to many respiratory viruses for the last two years due to all the travel restrictions, masks, social distancing and lockdowns.
Even thought I might have had Covid a few days ago after managing to avoid it despite being surrounded by it on and off at work for two years. Negative RAT, and negative PCR just to be sure when I was still feeling a bit off. Some RATs only pick up 80% of cases, the good ones more like 95% – but we have also had a fair few (weakly) false positives with some brands (and negativity confirmed by PCR).
Rocket Rocket says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 1:05 am
You’re 3 hours behind aren’t you? Do they have daylight saving in Thailand in their summer?
===========
Yes digger. Three hours behind up here. An hour behind the west.
None of the odious daylight saving here. Just like Queensland. By afternoon we are not really awaiting another hour of sun. We just want it to bugger off. Night matey.
New thread.
The desperation of the Lie-berals in Robertson can be seen by the carpet bombing of every available pole and public space with multiple corflutes of Lady Lucy from Lindfield.
I’ll keep you updated as to how my business friend fared with getting Lucy’s illegal corflutes removed from directly in front of her business entrance.
Not to mention the many secretive, media only presentations from her Ladyship with Scummo from Marketing.
robertsons looking good for Labor wicks is part of te morrisonwicks is part of Alex hawke group pm must be unpopular as he does not regularly events with the public very concerning about AFP there needs to be a royal comisio in to A Fp curuption n remeber in 2017 michaelia cash refused to provide a witness statement over afp raids on what she new about her staffers tip off and a f p just let it go but persued Annika smethurst for 2 years
on the government ran security think tank aspi is justin Bassi marise paynes chief of staffs appointment as its new director confermed hopefuly Labor can cansil it as it is important to have a respected independent not a liberal party oficial given the handling of solamons hopefuly the libs stacking of the aps with mates such a s gaetjens can be reversed