The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.
As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).
Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.
C@tmomma says:
Not ‘Alternative Facts’. The Truth.
______
What Truth? Who’s Truth? Isn’t Trump’s social media platform called Truth? Did you read the Truth newspaper?
There’s a lot of Alan Bond about Elon Musk imho.
Too may Kooyong posts on here tonight, not enough North Sydney. The 5 main candidates speak at Meet the Candidates in the socialist stronghold of Hunters Hill.
https://www.aphh.com.au/all-saints-live/
One of The Truth newspaper’s truer truths:
https://twitter.com/latrioli/status/843953053069795328
Here, the text is too blurred to make out. But there is a direct quote from a police
officer involved in the discovery of Snedden’s body.
“The condom was loaded.”
Greensborough Growler @ #853 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 9:52 pm
Let’s see – two eyes, two ears …
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:52 pm
There’s a lot of Alan Bond about Elon Musk imho.
_________
Except that Alan Bond used Junk Bonds to buy businesses while Elon Musk actually uses the revenue his businesses creates.
Tesla has almost zero debt while VW has US $454 Billion in debt. Who’s in a better position?
https://mobile.twitter.com/aaronsmith333/status/1518367043653091329/photo/1
nath @ #852 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 9:50 pm
And that’s a couple of red herrings you’ve thrown on the table. Though, to that point, why do you think Trump chose the name ‘Truth Social’? Because up is down and down is up in Trumpworld and ‘Truths’ are lies.
Anyway, what I mean by truth is this:
Truth is the property of being in accord with fact or reality. In everyday language, truth is typically ascribed to things that aim to represent reality or otherwise correspond to it, such as beliefs, propositions, and declarative sentences. Truth is usually held to be the opposite of falsehood.
C@tmomma says:
Anyway, what I mean by truth is this:
Truth is the property of being in accord with fact or reality. In everyday language, truth is typically ascribed to things that aim to represent reality or otherwise correspond to it, such as beliefs, propositions, and declarative sentences. Truth is usually held to be the opposite of falsehood.
______________
And if you could decipher what the truth is each day then you would be a billionaire quite easily.
C@tmomma
The problem is the exact opposite one. The Populist Authoritarian Right concept of speech is not state controlled, it’s corporate controlled. Almost the entirety of state level announcements are disseminated by multi-national media corporations. This is most obvious with Covid, official state policy was constantly undermined by media produced by or targeted at Right Populists. This is also very obvious in academia, grants and degrees themselves (the intellectual production version of “free speech”) are controlled by what is commercially viable in the short term. The state should be guaranteeing these things and not leaving them up to the ever benevolent whims of billionaires or corporations who have escaped the ethical and legal confines of the nation-state that the rest of us have to deal with.
I thought the sTruths most famous headline was:
Shocking Stripshow: Police Commissioner to Act!
“All the truth in the world adds up to one big lie.”
Hard to beat this one:
What would they know anyway? They should be out there talking to the working families of Australian like we are. If they really want to know what the people are thinking they should get off the bloody twips or whatever they’re called and head to their local Labor branch meeting, they’ll set the whippersnappers straight with the truth quick smart.
nath @ #860 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 9:57 pm
If I was a billionaire I’d buy Snopes and get them to do it for me.
nath @ #848 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 9:18 pm
Apropos of nothing (i.e. not getting involved in any disagreements between people on here), there is something psychologically pleasing about someone who uses confident terms like ‘the truth’. If they’re so confident of knowing the truth, then they have to be onto something, right? Or at least that’s what our very deceptive brains are telling us. I think a similar effect happens when you can get people to believe all kinds of incorrect bullshit if it is classified confidently as a ‘fact’ (such as being featured in a book/website called “1001 Amazing Facts” or something similar.)
nath,
You go on believing whatever you like.
Victoria
“ Peter Van Onselen
The Coalition can gloat about low unemployment. BUT you’re counted in employment numbers if you work less than half a day a fortnight, wages growth is painfully anaemic, inflation is at a 20 year high and interest rates are about to rise. Oh, and we’re a trillion dollars in debt”
Charlie Pickering had a skit tonight pointing out this exact gap between the unemployment theory and reality. Suffice to say, the Coalition can say what they want (regardless of it being accepted internationally) but to many their numbers and words are just BS.
Try telling a single parent who can’t get daycare for their child therefore they have to forgo work that they’re not unemployed. Try telling a full time carer who is restricted to looking after their loved one that they’re not considered as unemployed. Or try telling the person working 1hr weekly that they are considered in the same manner as someone working 40hrs. These statistics are meaningless to real people dealing with real day-to-day issues. Morrison and Frydenburg can try to hide behind these figures but they’ll be found out on election night.
Rant over.
Commentariat Uprising says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 8:57 pm
Bludging
None of that answers any of my questions, especially the one on entitlement to those disaffected voters. If you don’t feel entitled to those voters allegiance just because they’re part of the “historical plurality”, please explain how and why.
I have no sense of “entitlement” to anything, least of all to the votes of other citizens. None. I simply lament the destruction of the electoral cohorts that have voted for reform over the last century or so.
It has been very, very difficult for Labor to win from Opposition at all since 1917. This has happened just 4 times since WW1. There was a very long spell – from 1929 until 1972 – when Labor were unable to win from Opposition. During much of this time the plurality – even though it was substantial – was deeply divided and that division helped keep the Lying Reactionaries in power.
Reactionary rule has been to the very great disadvantage of ordinary Australians. This was so during the last century. It continues into this one. The only political forces that have stood effectively against Reactionary privilege have been the Labor movement and the plurality that have voted for Labor. The Greens have set out to dismember that plurality. They have aligned themselves with the Reactionaries to do that. This is a matter of profound regret. It is not a matter of entitlement. It is a matter of sorrow.
Commentariat Uprising,
That’s why I said this:
It’s State Sanctioned Speech, where the State and their proxies control the Means of Production of ‘Free Speech’.
By ‘their proxies’ I meant the media controlling oligarchs like Murdoch. If you couldn’t figure it out. However, I am also referring to Putin and Berlusconi and Orban, who have appropriated the MSM but kept it at arm’s length and controlled it via legislation and coercion. Like Morrison and the Coalition try to do to the ABC and SBS.
Wat Tyler
That’s exactly why “fact-checking” is almost as dangerous as “alternative facts”. In the end it’s a tautology in which we’ve decided that these facts are officially true and so anything that refers to them as facts is officially true. If nothing else it will never persuade anyone and simply offer unreasonable levels of confidence in things that we have no experience on. Literally propaganda as that term is meant.
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 10:04 pm
nath,
You go on believing whatever you like.
_________
It’s just a matter of looking at the information that publicly traded companies are required to disclose.
“Meanwhile, the best that the Greens can hope for is to have leverage over the Government of the day. They have no common ground with or leverage over the Coalition, so rationally they need to help Labor into power.”
And there you have a bleeding obvious and entirely correct statement of the basic political dynamic of Center Left > Left Australian politics.
Sportsbet update:
Labor 1.48
Coalition 2.60
Greensborough Growler
“ There’s a lot of Alan Bond about Elon Musk imho.”
A bit harsh I think. I’m with nath on Musk. Bond was just a conman whereas self-marketer though he may be, Musk really has produced something that is changing the world. He’s weird, he has Aspergers and it shows as he has no filter and he really is a stream of consciousness but he really has changed the world and has little or no debt. I wish he hadn’t bought twitter though.
Commentariat Uprising says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 10:07 pm
Wat Tyler
That’s exactly why “fact-checking” is almost as dangerous as “alternative facts”. In the end it’s a tautology in which we’ve decided that these facts are officially true and so anything that refers to them as facts is officially true. If nothing else it will never persuade anyone and simply offer unreasonable levels of confidence in things that we have no experience on. Literally propaganda as that term is meant.
__________________
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/why-isnt-the-coalitions-election-campaign-being-called-a-disaster/ar-AAWDbqK?ocid=mailsignout&li=AAgfYrC
Commentariat Uprising @ #872 Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 – 10:07 pm
This just means that you are giving yourself a license to believe anything. You are the problem.
C@tmomma says:
This just means that you are giving yourself a license to believe anything. You are the problem.
__________
Yeah but you are giving yourself a license to believe anything too. As long as you think it’s the Truth.
Why isn’t Socrates getting in on this discussion about Truth. It’s all his namesake ever did, day after day.
C@tmomma
“This just means that you are giving yourself a license to believe anything. You are the problem.”
No, the problem is propaganda. What I’m saying is that fact checking is not a coherent solution to propaganda, it IS propaganda. It is not education and it’s not persuasion, it is pure integration propaganda.
“Better economic managers”
Been out of range for a few days. Has any commentary occurred on SA Legislative Council result?
Antony Green reporting good summary of result and preferences https://antonygreen.com.au/sa-2022-legislative-council-result-finalised/
As previously predicted Labor and PHON got the last 2 spots with about 0.7 quotas after c. 70% of votes that could have been distributed exhausted. Family First got fairly close to Labor for last spot – c 8300 votes. Labor kept ahead by a very good run of preferences from Greens and less so AJP and Cannabis.
All this talk about truth. If you want truth, seek it out your self, don’t settle for anyone else’s truth. Else you will have no true understanding and lose the ability to reason. Once that happens, the next step is;
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
v
You end up as an idiot savant and vote for the coalition.
Someone mentioned Edward St John upthread. I recall his name growing up. Thought I’d look him up. Here’s an obituary by Kirby.
St John was a very interesting chap.
https://oa.anu.edu.au/obituary/st-john-edward-henry-ted-13362
Tesla’s share price has tanked since the Twitter acquisition was announced and there is plenty of speculation he will walk away from the deal.
That’s the beauty of having something fact checked by Labor, there’s no need to think, we just know it’s the truth. With so much Fake News out there you need to go to a reputable source these days.
Evan at 10.13pm
Why isn’t the Coalition’s campaign being called a disaster?
1) #2019PTSD
2) the lamestream media have a vested interest in seeing the Coalition re-relected, and, given the sundry disasters the govt is inflicting upon itself, maintain the legend of ‘Scotty the Campaigning Genius’ is about all they have left.
The Coalition campaign is a disaster, lacking focus and discipline and falling foul of economic realities like, say, inflation.
Darc,
That would be the Melbourne Truth.
GG
Is his trajectory PayPal – Tesla – SpaceX?
I can’t see why anyone would want to buy Twitter. Would it be very profitable?
I would prefer if he put people on Mars
Rocket Rocket
He’s going to use it for data mining purposes if he doesn’t get bored of the whole thing.
I’m just fucking sick of the fact that after spending most of 3 years watching the press call Gillard a liar daily, they’ll do cute explainers like “Is Labor’s policy a sneaky carbon tax?” that repeat Morrison’s lie and let him off the hook rather than just say “Morrison desperately lies again”.
Mavis says:
Wednesday, April 27, 2022 at 9:45 pm
Upnorth:
You remind me of the dearly departed Kay Jay.
======================
Sir I humbly take that as a mighty compliment
I have “surfed’ this site and posted on and off for years. I have new boost of energy. But as for Kay Jay perhaps Lincoln says it best – “The Better Angels of our Nature”.
You keep well old mate and do pull me up if my one eyed irrational nature shines through too much.
A colleague once defined our modern, scientific, definition of ‘truth’ as ‘a direct, one-to-one correlation between object and description.’
Not the only definition of ‘truth’ – and clearly problematic for Scotty.
Then there’s an eternal question placed in the mouth of Pontius Pilate: “What is truth?” (John 18:38a)
I’ve always wondered why that (rhetorical) question was included in the Fourth Gospel…
I love a bit of epistemology in the evenings 🙂
So, any relativists here?
Arky at 10.39pm
+1
Media co-conspirators. On the occasions Labor does win, it is all the sweeter for the hill that must be climbed.
Griff at 10.42pm
Do you love the smell of epistemology in the evening?
@Snappy – While I don’t like the use of ‘lamestream’… screams too much of Sarah Palin, the key point is the media distraction of Albo’s self-own in the first week. Had the CPG had to actually report what was happening, the Government would have started comparatively poorly… as opposed to better in comparison.
The combo of the CPG’s commerical imperatives for a close race and their general laziness – mean the ship is turning slowly.
Rocket,
Plenty are seeing this as an expensive indulgence that will end in tears.
Removing content constraints as he has flagged will make the platform even more toxic.
There are a number of over hyped social media platforms that have collapsed to nothingness over the years.
“2nd for Labor from us terrible horrible Greens”
Have you SEEN the rest of that how to vote? It’s antivaxxer party at 5 out of 10, with 5 people even worse! The Greens really had nobody to preference above Labor there without being ridiculous.