Morgan: 55-45 to Labor; Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 46

Labor maintains a commanding but narrowing lead from Roy Morgan, while Essential Research finds little in it.

The weekly poll from Roy Morgan finds Labor’s two-party preferred lead at 55-45, in from 57-43 last week and the narrowest the heavily Labor-leaning series has had it since October. Its distinction with Newspoll is now down to preferences, since the major party primary votes are similar to those of Newspoll and indeed Resolve Strategic: 35.5% for the Coalition, up three, and 35% for Labor, down one. However, it’s already strong reading for the Greens has become even more pronounced, with a one-and-a-half point increase to 14%, while One Nation is down half a point to 4.5% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1.5%. I calculate that this would pan out to 53.7-46.3 on 2019 preference flows, but Roy Morgan’s respondent-allocated preferences have been consistently more favourable to Labor.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (in from 55-45 for a swing of about 6%), 58-42 in Victoria (steady, a swing of about 5%), 51.5-48.5 in Queensland (out from 50.5-49.5, a swing of around 10%), 58-42 in South Australia (out from 53-47, a swing of about 7%) and 61-39 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll unusually credits the Coalition with a lead in Western Australia of 51-49, after Labor led by fully 63.5-36.5 last time, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday through to Sunday from a sample of 1382.

The Guardian also has the latest voting intention results from Essential Research, which may already be available in full here by the time you read this. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure, based on respondent-allocated preferences and inclusive of an undecided component, suggests the Coalition have all but closed the gap, with Labor down three to 47% and the Coalition up one to 46%. However, the primary votes are all but unchanged, with the Coalition steady on 37%, Labor down one to 35%, the Greens down one to 9%, One Nation down one to 3% and the United Australia Party up one to 4%.

Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 41% and up five on disapproval to 41%, whereas Scott Morrison’s ratings are all but unchanged, his approval down one to 44% and disapproval steady at 48%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is little changed at 40-36, compared with 39-36 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1020.

UPDATE: The poll also offers personal ratings for Adam Bandt (33% approval and 27% disapproval) and Barnaby Joyce (33% approval and 45% disapproval), and finds a 55-45 split in favour of Labor on a forced response question for party expected to win the election. A semi-regular question on “views towards re-electing the federal Coalition government” recorded little change on May, with a steady 48% rating it was “time to give someone else a go” compared with 34% who went for the alternative option that the government deserves to be re-elected, up two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,295 comments on “Morgan: 55-45 to Labor; Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 47, Coalition 46”

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  1. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/04/20/morgan-55-45-to-labor/comment-page-25/#comment-3872564

    (Though I’ll probably use positions on governance (transparency, integrity, accountability, campaign finance reform, useful FoI, mandatory and binding referendums for more direct and less liberal extreme disaster capitalism democracy, with bonus points for removing the colonial Union Jack from the flag), Wuflu quarantine/ vax/ testing, climate, social support after corporate welfare, powershift … before Nbnco.)

    Nbnco Conroy, the Libs lite architected it, the Fibs/ Nats build a sooner, cheaper, fast enough by …
    Now we’re on Nbnco we have about 57/ 17 Mbps, before on Telstra for same dollars it was 117/ 7 Mbps.
    ‘New’ are the scheduled monthly outages, and fortnightly unscheduled outages, though the logs show more, despite the same wiring from premise to end of the street, from there to the exchange/ PoI, where it goes through our services provider’s network…
    Overdue, overpriced and still no reliable Gbps doesn’t begin to cover it.
    I’d like to see it benchmarked (strategic review mk …), broken up, competition returned to extended metro (zone 1/ 2), a holistic regional (zone) development approach, after all the OECD talking of regulatory reform, competition for infrastructure and services, besides neutrality of technology goes back a while.
    I guess minor parties/ independents it is this election.

  3. Well, i think everyone would acknowledge that if there is any influence to the debates, rightly or wrongly, it is mainly how they are reported after the event.

    Looked up the blog (thanks ST) and if some of whats in there gets a run in the media over the next couple of days, then the result will have to be re-evaluated as a rather damaging episode for Morrison.

    By definition a victory for Albo, but the real damage seems to have been substantially self harm by Morrison, adroitly abetted by Ablo.

    LibNats rusted on twits are going to have a hard time spinning this in a way thats not inherently hilarious. 🙂

    I know….lets get Graham Morris on to comment!!!!! 🙂

  4. I just googled ‘scott morrison blessed’.

    Phew!

    Spinning his way out of this should be a sight to behold!

    Has the Empathy Trainer been sacked?

    I hope this leads to something positive for people dealing with the challenges of disability. How about a change of govt?

  5. ScroteMo was just referencing that you’re not blessed to have autistic kids because you won’t be able to access the NDIS to help look after them if they win the election.

  6. Channel 7 late news goes after border control and running the economy as what to talk about after the debate … then they go to Scotty’s disability gaffe and the Solomon Islands screw up. They had to go to Scotty’s wedgies first didn’t they.

  9. Grasping at straws. If you think the “blessed” comment will make one iota of a difference to the election outcome.
    Labor supporters have the sound of desperation about them, they can feel it slipping and they don’t know what to do and are grasping at anything.
    The ALP campaign has had to go with the basics card for all seniors card lie this also reeks of desperation and so early in the campaign. Morrison won’t just let it roll along like Turnbull will, he will call it out, the media are not having a bar of it either. This is more than they feel they have lost momentum. Still Labor’s to lose. Interesting few weeks ahead.

  10. Sandman at 10.43pm

    ANY lamestream media coverage of Morrison’s clear debate stuff ups is a pure bonus!

    I think his ‘blessed’ thing is a stick of dynamite.

    His Solomons stuff up is just that: his. His govt, for the last 9 years. On his watch.

    The China card trumped (delicious irony that that is the right word) by “Solomons.”

  11. Steelydan at 10.49pm

    Fixed it for you…

    “LIBERAL supporters have the sound of desperation about them, they can feel it slipping and they don’t know what to do and are grasping at anything.”

  13. Thanks everyone for the running commentary. Interesting that ICAC came up twice. And Coalition foreign policy has been an abject failure under Morrison. China, Oceania and France being the most egregious examples.

  14. Steelydan
    The problem for Morrison is when the political cycle turns the little things that were once nothings all of a sudden become big things.

  16. So, the Project has Graham Morris. PB has an Steam Powered Stimulation Appliance.

    Hmmmm…….Can we have some comment from Graham to raise the tone?? 🙂

  17. Amy Remeikis

    Telling someone who is asking about a policy decision for her child with autism that you’ve been ‘blessed’ not to have a child with a disability is…something

    Still reeling from that one.

    The counter factual to that comment is beyond awful. All children are blessings

  18. “Morrison criticised after saying he’s been “blessed” not to have disabled children
    (Latika Bourke)”

    Surely ScoMo wasn’t saying disabled children are a curse and resultant from parental sin?

    Surely he is familiar with the Good Book?

    John 9
    1
    As he went along, he saw a man blind from birth.
    2
    His disciples asked him, “Rabbi, who sinned, this man or his parents, that he was born blind?”
    3
    “Neither this man nor his parents sinned,” said Jesus, “but this happened so that the work of God might be displayed in his life.
    4
    As long as it is day, we must do the work of him who sent me. Night is coming, when no one can work.
    5
    While I am in the world, I am the light of the world.”

  19. Scanning this Oz and Courier-Mail both say Independent voters say Albo won the debate. So I reckon he won hands down.

    Can’t open it but the Courier-Mail also says “One word from Morrison sparks fury”. I guess it’s the horrible disability comment.

    Also in the “Curious-Snail” experts revealed what was really happening to Albo and SfM because of the body language. Shows Morrison with a clenched jaw next to a relaxed Albo.

    Barnaby Joyce is in Central Queensland throwing another $200m at the region. Maybe the Nats sense they is on the nose.

    I can just sense a subtle but perceptible shift with the Murdochracy

    Unkie Rupert will call the attack dogs off Labor and unload on the Tories big time if he senses they are going to lose.

  20. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/20/josh-frydenberg-pulls-election-ads-after-guide-dogs-victoria-complaint

    Hadn’t really seen much about this one. I’d say the charity will not get pinged for breaking the advocacy rules that i think the Libs actually worked to impose since their Chair seems ot have been pretty quick off the mark in wanting those adds stopped.

    Reckon their idiot CEO is toast though. What, did she expect that because they are NOT an environmental based charity the rules (which a CEO should really be expected to know) didn’t apply to her or the treasurer??

    Not good for Josh, but may not get much attention as his boss fwarked up so badly tonight.

  21. Steelydan ,
    Starting the scare campaign early is good, because it gives it time to sink in, like the fantasy of better liberal economic management.

  23. Been on a road trip on the campaign. All worth it when watching tonight knowing the person in the lead role is a human that you could sit and have a serious conversation with about the challenges that Australia is facing.

    Yeah he’s not polished, yeah he might not have every last number of every document in his head but he’s human. Yeah he’s been pushed into places his hearts not fully in at times but he’s human.

    I’m driving through country NSW where one of our very substantial towns in population numbers hasn’t had an operating maternity ward at its hospital since way before the last election. Women go into labour with the thought that if it all goes wrong then they’ve been abandoned.

    That’s the reward you get from the Nationals for your loyalty. That is what you get for an actual functioning agreement between parties. Not the scare of a non actual one. People are seeing it. It’s 2022 and the traditional bibles (papers and t.v) are not what they were.

    Forget the whole boats issues of 2007. How the F does woman and babies health safety during childbirth become a deep concern in a first world country. It’s shameful the disparity between the cities and regional Australia. All good in the Pilbara eh Barnarby.

    We’ve spoken to a lot of women under 50 and they get it. They understand the sacrifice they’re expected to make when they vote. We’ve sensed perhaps not for much longer.

    Even Sky news got it when they displayed their graphs tonight. Women get it even though men don’t. Not all of course.

    So yep I’m happy to be volunteering a lot of time and effort on a very safe Nationals seat and one of the reasons is that our leader is human.

    Now all that ain’t going to make a jot of difference in the overall result but I’m getting joy after every conversation because we are getting a very good hearing.

    Apparently a trillion dollar debt when you can’t have a baby in your home town cuts deep…. Who’d have thought.

  25. ”
    Bushfire Billsays:
    Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 10:09 pm
    Heh… two headlines at the SMH right now:

    “Albanese wins first debate, live audience says.”

    “Leaders play it safe as first debate ends in a nil-all draw, says David Crowe.”

    Pundits versus The People: says it all about the state of play, actually.
    ”

    I have a suspicion that pundits on TV and print will pronounce what David Crowe pronounced. Some like Daily Toilet will say that Morrison won by considerable amount. I think No pundit will mention audience vote
    It will go against their narrative.

  26. Acerbic Conehead (great handle, BTW!) at 11.09pm

    John ch. 9 may well contain the first religious teaching that DOESN’T view illness/disability/any other misfortune as a product of sin/wrath of gods etc.

    I’m not a world religions expert, but this saying in John 9 is very unusual.

    Needless to say, Christianity doesn’t have a good track record of keeping illness/disability/misfortune and sin/wrath non-linked!

  28. They should change SfMs name to

    “Pig Iron Scott”.

    It’s an international disgrace that the Island chain, home to Guadalcanal, has swapped sides in the whole global scheme of things all while “Nero” sits in the Shire with his Ukulele and Australia and the Pacific burn.

    Albo will have to have the leadership skills of “Jack” Curtain.

    It is always left to Labor to defend Australia.

  29. ”
    Snappy Tomsays:
    Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 10:24 pm
    From the Sydney Morning Herald site…

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/election-2022-live-updates-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese-accuse-each-other-of-scare-campaigns-ahead-of-first-televised-debate-20220419-p5aekd.html

    Select 8.34pm “Morrison criticised after saying he’s been “blessed” not to have disabled children
    By Latika Bourke”

    Some excerpts…
    ‘Labor frontbencher Katy Gallagher said that she was blessed to have a child with autism.

    “I am “blessed” to have a child with autism. She teaches me things every day. Our lives are enriched by her,” Gallagher said on Twitter.’

    and…

    ‘Labor’s disabilities spokesman and architect of the National Disability Insurance Scheme Bill Shorten also weighed in.

    “ScoMo says he is ‘blessed’ to have two non-disabled children. Every child is a blessing. The NDIS is there to help people with disability live their lives to the fullest,” Shorten tweeted.

    “The Morrison Gov has slashed NDIS plans for 1000s of children around Australia. Labor will fix the NDIS,” the former Labor leader said.’
    ”

    Following is response to Shorten tweet

    Sally Johnson ✳️✳️
    @DallyStreet
    ·
    3h
    Replying to
    @billshortenmp
    Shocked that I am still continually shocked by that guy.

  30. “Can we get footage of Barnyard’s head exploding a la the fembots in Austin Powers?…”

    WEll, if we get footage of him during a Morrison concession speech maybe??? Or……ok, the doGs above are just not that good to me…..but…..any chances Barnyard will be on a tv commentary panel on election night?? 🙂

  31. ”
    Steelydansays:
    Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 10:49 pm
    Grasping at straws. If you think the “blessed” comment will make one iota of a difference to the election outcome.
    Labor supporters have the sound of desperation about them, they can feel it slipping and they don’t know what to do and are grasping at anything.
    The ALP campaign has had to go with the basics card for all seniors card lie this also reeks of desperation and so early in the campaign. Morrison won’t just let it roll along like Turnbull will, he will call it out, the media are not having a bar of it either. This is more than they feel they have lost momentum. Still Labor’s to lose. Interesting few weeks ahead.
    ”

    Way to go to own the left. After Morrison only you can do that.
    Yesterday Trans kids and today autism kids.

  32. If the blessed comment doesn’t get a 4 day run from PK and FK along with “The PM will be wanting to use Anzac days for a reset” then I will be writing a real letter to the ABC like a proper old person.

  33. So, I wasn’t able to watch the Leaders’ Debate, but if Andrew Bolt is saying Albanese did better in terms of “the battle for the future”, then Albanese must have done very, very well.

    As for the “blessed” word choice, I think Albanese should always pivot, when asked, immediately to “I’m more interested in dealing with the issues that were raised by “, or variations on that theme. All of the other Labor people can hit Morrison as hard as they want over it, but Albanese shouldn’t do it.

    It’s one of the benefits of having a team behind him – Albanese doesn’t need to get his hands dirty on the more superficial issue (Morrison being tone-deaf), when he can come across as the policy-focused leader.

  34. ”
    Themunzsays:
    Wednesday, April 20, 2022 at 11:30 pm
    Bloomberg TV (USA) running side commentary:

    “Australian Labor leader wins over audience in debate”

    I call that a “wow”.
    ”

    I call that a “stretch “.

  35. “It’s one of the benefits of having a team behind him – Albanese doesn’t need to get his hands dirty on the more superficial issue (Morrison being tone-deaf), when he can come across as the policy-focused leader.”

    GlenO..agreed. ALP team already out of the blocks on that. 🙂

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/election-2022-live-updates-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese-accuse-each-other-of-scare-campaigns-ahead-of-first-televised-debate-20220419-p5aekd.html

    “Labor frontbencher Katy Gallagher said that she was blessed to have a child with autism.

    “I am “blessed” to have a child with autism. She teaches me things every day. Our lives are enriched by her,” Gallagher said on Twitter.”

  36. Ben Page Retweeted
    Sophie Pedder
    @PedderSophie
    ·
    7h
    Ahead of tonight’s debate between Macron and Le Pen, the big-sample Ipsos poll gives him a solid 12-point lead:
    Macron 56%
    Le Pen 44%
    Macron’s victory is well within his grasp. But Le Pen is better prepared for the debate than in 2017. He can’t afford to be cocky or condescending

  37. imacca – Gallagher’s response is even better. It goes beyond the “attacking Morrison” angle and instead emphasises the issue without ever mentioning Morrison directly. There’s nothing more powerful. And I honestly doubt it was done for political purposes – which is part of why it’s so powerful.

  38. “which is part of why it’s so powerful.”

    Yup. Gallagher has always come across to me as pretty real as a pollie. She is an asset.

  39. I must say the large undecided vote showing up in some polls is a big unknown factor.

    I would say the Libs usually do better at picking this group up – in the days before an election and in the booth.

    Labor needs to chase these voters. I suppose that’s what campaigns are for, but it comes down to the little things. Albo is looking very polished and carrying himself well IMO, plus the policies Labor are putting out are very bread and basket (but need to be well communicated).

    I reckon the fact that Labor aren’t being called favourites (general media view seems to be that it’s 50/50 or Libs Coming From Behind™️) will help them. As Antony Green said, in 2019 the ALP was heavy favourite and not a party the protest voters gave their final preference to. Hopefully now, they’ll be blinded by their disdain for Scuntmo and will feel at least unthreatened by Albo.

  41. https://www.instagram.com/p/Ccks1adN_kA/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

    Interesting how Albo stated he agreed with Scotty at a few moments in the debate. It’s a small thing but I think it makes him look mature. Ignoring the unemployment “gaffe” (which does matter), I think he is projecting decency , confidence and competence. Scotty is trying to, and always convinces some but so many are turned off.

    Side note: Scotty got 40% on last PPM (vs Albo 36%), and 48% disapproval (41% approve).

    I don’t think these numbers indicate the level of dislike for him. People can strongly dislike a leader and still mark them as PPM and approve, right?

  42. Not liking the superficiality of this election campaign, it plays into the hands of cynical parasites like Morrison. My preference is a Labor minority government backed by teals. Neither of the major parties deserve majority govt.

  44. Just a heads-up: it looks like the LNP and ALP r/a figures for the Apr 14-19, 2022 Essential Research poll are transposed on the BludgerTrack 2022 Poll data page.

    Currently showing LNP 47 to ALP 46 instead of LNP 46 to ALP 47 as per the article (figures also confirmed with the Essential report).

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