Newspoll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor in Victoria

As the big day dawns, a gentle reminder for those who have enjoyed by election guide and general campaign coverage that you can show your appreciation by throwing a few pennies into the PressPatron donation facility along the top of the page. Hopefully I’ll find time to say more about the election later this evening, but if I don’t, it’s because I’m furiously busy trying to get my election night results reporting facility ready to go for tomorrow. Suffice to say for now that if you enjoyed by the Wentworth by-election results feature, you ain’t seen nothing yet (assuming of course that it all ends up working okay).

With The Australian bringing us a Newspoll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1077, here is a run through each of the late polls, all of which say much the same thing:

• Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54-46 at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 41% (steady, and up from 38.1% in 2014), Coalition 40% (up one, down from 42.0% in 2014) and the Greens 11% (steady, down from 11.5%). Daniel Andrews’ personal ratings are unchanged at 45% approval and 40% disapproval, while Matthew Guy is up three to 34% and steady on 46%, and Andrews’ lead as preferred premier narrows slightly from 45-29 to 45-33. The Liberals have improved on the issue polling since the start of the campaign, going from 39-38 ahead to 45-37 ahead on law and order, and from 45-37 behind to 43-42 behind on the economy, but apparently it hasn’t translated into votes.

• Yesterday’s uComms/ReachTEL poll for The Age had Labor leading 54-46, with primary votes (after removal of the 5.1% undecided) of Labor 40.8%, Coalition 37.8% and Greens 11.0%. The poll was conducted Wednesday from a sample of 1239.

• Yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll in the Herald Sun conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1061, had it at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 40%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%, with Andrews leading Guy 47-35 as preferred premier. I observe that the Herald Sun’s front page headline accompanying the report was “Dan’s to lose”, meaning “the election is Dan’s to lose”, anod not “Dan is to lose the election”.

• Roy Morgan has also turned out an SMS poll, conducted yesterday from a sample of 1469, the selling point of which is that separate results are published for those who have voted already and those who have not. The poll gives Labor a lead of 53-47 among the former and 55-45 among the latter.

I’ve run all that through my poll tracker, the trend results of which are featured below the fold, and the full detail of which can be found on my election guide. The final result, would you believe it, is 53.5-46.5 in favour of Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe