Newspoll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor in Victoria

Four polls now concur that Labor is set to be returned in Victoria with a favourable swing of 1% to 2%.

As the big day dawns, a gentle reminder for those who have enjoyed by election guide and general campaign coverage that you can show your appreciation by throwing a few pennies into the PressPatron donation facility along the top of the page. Hopefully I’ll find time to say more about the election later this evening, but if I don’t, it’s because I’m furiously busy trying to get my election night results reporting facility ready to go for tomorrow. Suffice to say for now that if you enjoyed by the Wentworth by-election results feature, you ain’t seen nothing yet (assuming of course that it all ends up working okay).

With The Australian bringing us a Newspoll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1077, here is a run through each of the late polls, all of which say much the same thing:

• Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54-46 at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 41% (steady, and up from 38.1% in 2014), Coalition 40% (up one, down from 42.0% in 2014) and the Greens 11% (steady, down from 11.5%). Daniel Andrews’ personal ratings are unchanged at 45% approval and 40% disapproval, while Matthew Guy is up three to 34% and steady on 46%, and Andrews’ lead as preferred premier narrows slightly from 45-29 to 45-33. The Liberals have improved on the issue polling since the start of the campaign, going from 39-38 ahead to 45-37 ahead on law and order, and from 45-37 behind to 43-42 behind on the economy, but apparently it hasn’t translated into votes.

• Yesterday’s uComms/ReachTEL poll for The Age had Labor leading 54-46, with primary votes (after removal of the 5.1% undecided) of Labor 40.8%, Coalition 37.8% and Greens 11.0%. The poll was conducted Wednesday from a sample of 1239.

• Yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll in the Herald Sun conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1061, had it at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 40%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%, with Andrews leading Guy 47-35 as preferred premier. I observe that the Herald Sun’s front page headline accompanying the report was “Dan’s to lose”, meaning “the election is Dan’s to lose”, anod not “Dan is to lose the election”.

• Roy Morgan has also turned out an SMS poll, conducted yesterday from a sample of 1469, the selling point of which is that separate results are published for those who have voted already and those who have not. The poll gives Labor a lead of 53-47 among the former and 55-45 among the latter.

I’ve run all that through my poll tracker, the trend results of which are featured below the fold, and the full detail of which can be found on my election guide. The final result, would you believe it, is 53.5-46.5 in favour of Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

157 comments on “Newspoll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor in Victoria”

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  2. Thanks William.

    Last thoughts tonight –

    Many have noticed the Herald-Sun being less feral this last week. They don’t like looking like complete idiots when the Victorian people clearly vote in the government they don’t want, and this sort of ‘easing off’ has been seen before. They don’t really want to run post election headlines criticising the voters.

    The TPP curve over the last year is fascinating – around a year ago Labor looked in trouble, given that they could well lose even with a 51-49 lead. I find it hard to really pinpoint what changed. Large projects coming on line helped, with the reality of say Skyrail being quite different to the scaremongers’ version. And the steady rollout of level crossing removals, which has really made a big difference on the Ringwood line that I see every day.

    But I think that the Federal Liberals knifing Turnbull really was the nail in the coffin for Matthew Guy. It so highlighted the dysfunction in their party, and the “muppet show” we’ve been treated to since by Morrison and co has just been embarrassing. The absence of Federal government ministers and members spoke volumes for the Victorian Coalition campaign directors’ realisation of just how toxic Morrison, Dutton, Sukkar etc have become.

    They probably wish they could keep them all in hiding for the forthcoming Federal election also. Though given the rumours of a March election so that Parliament doesn’t even sit next year before the election, maybe this helps hide all these Muppet Ministers through a summer break.

  3. Thanks William, your election night feature should be excellent.

    Is there a typo towards the end of your article?

    53-5.46.5 in favour of Labor.

  4. Given the abovementioned polls, plus the Morgan SMS one which credits Labor with a similar advantage, the possibility of a 2PP of 54% or greater is quite high. However, a 2% swing would only result in a gain of three seats if the swing is uniform (Ripon, Morwell and Prahran). Compare this to the second Brackslide in 2006, when a 2PP of 54.5% resulted in 55 seats to Labor. No one is predicting 55 seats this time and it’s not going to happen unless the 2PP gets well above 55%. This shows that a lot of the ALP’s votes are wasted in over-populated electorates with high levels of growth, and the redistribution due in the next term will likely see Labor going into 2022 with a notional seat count of 52 or 53 seats (assuming the result tonight is what we are all expecting). A 54% 2PP is really quite a drubbing, but if you read the commentary, you’d think that Andrews and co will only just scrape home. Yes, he’s a dull character, but he deserves more credit if the polling is correct.

    For those voting or handing out HTVs, don’t forget to grab a sausage to support your local community today!!

  6. One other note regards the “Dan’s to Lose” headline in the Hun… Peter Hitchener used the identical line for the Ch9 News. Sounds even more ambiguous said out loud, seems Team Murdoch and Team Stokes are pretty peeved.

  7. There is clearly a brand Liberal issue – starting before Dutton’s shot at his boss, bu cemented since. A
    Maybe worth 5 per cent in a State election.

  8. Would you be willing to kill people to win a state election, to be Premier of Victoria? Such a large price to pay for such a small prize.

    In my opinion, that’s what Matthew Guy’s promise to immediately close Victoria’s only safe injecting room amounts to. We know injecting rooms save lives, prevent deaths.

    We know closing the only safe injecting facility will result in deaths – it will kill people. That’s the promise.

    There are three aspects of this miserable election policy to consider: the performance of safe injecting rooms; the bigger question of the hideously expensive and failed “war on drugs”; and why a state Liberal leader would bother making an issue out of a single trial facility in a seat in which his party isn’t even offering a candidate.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2018/11/23/victorian-election-injecting-room/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%20News%20-%2020181124

  9. Well, that’s pretty much it then. So close to an election Newspoll may not get the exact percentage right, but they almost always get the winner right, and I don’t see in this election any strange and unpredictable effect of minor parties that could swing the result against the ALP. If anything, many minors would prefer the ALP ahead of that Guy’s Coalition.

    Pizza and beer/wine will be ready at about 6pm today in the Alpo household to watch the actual result from our great national asset, the ABC….. 🙂

  10. Alpo

    I’m still worried about the upper house. Me and me friends are taking care to vote so that none of the Druery mob get in, but not every voter cares that much.

  11. “One other note regards the “Dan’s to Lose” headline in the Hun”….

    …. and that’s exactly the devious propagandistic/manipulative power of the Murdoch press: We all know what “This election is Dan’s to Lose” means, and the meaning is uncontroversial…. but trick is just that of writing “Dan” and “Lose” close together and the effect becomes completely different….

    Pathetic rabble of Neoliberal losers….. they run out of dead cats, manipulative wording….they have run out of votes…. and they have run out of time!

  12. Hope the weather in Victoria is nicer today. All my best to the Labor warriors going in to bat for the team today. I wish you all the best of success. Lord knows that Matthew Guy is a malignant force for no good at all.

  14. “I’m still worried about the upper house.”….. True lizzie, at both State and Federal levels the Upper House is hard to predict. I can only hope that the majority of voters vote below the line…. I can only hope.

  15. Pizza and beer/wine will be ready at about 6pm today in the Alpo household to watch the actual result from our great national asset, the ABC…..

    I hope it’s a RED meat pizza, Alpo!

  18. C@t & Alpo

    Vote for 5 below the line will do it! It’s not that hard.

    Not hard for those who can be bothered. It’s the others I worry about. The “same-same” lot.

  20. Good luck to all citizens who are engaged enough to be working at the booths today, and enjoy your democracy sausage (conventional or vegan) whoever you’re supporting – unless it’s the Australian Liberty Allowance or other similar RWNJs of course. Looks like we might need an umbrella. Long may Victoria continue to be the progressive heartland of the nation.

  21. Before the Safe Injecting Room was opened in Richmond, ambos were tied up dealing with drug overdoses.

    So that Safe Injecting Room saves lives
    – the lives of over dosing drug users
    – the lives of others requiring emergency help

    I bet Matthew Guy will slash ambos numbers, the Liebrals just can’t help themselves

    Re selling the sewerage, I bet that will be coupled with fresh water. Is that good bye to drinking fountains?
    Does Nestle or Coca Cola want to buy it?
    Who will maintain the sewer, brick pipes don’t last forever!
    I live in the highest park of my district when flats have replaced houses and the sewer can’t cope with the increased number of dwellings. The strain on the sewer in the lower lying areas must be horrible. I better visit Auckland St

    In Bolivia when everything was sold off
    the railway to Potosi was ripped up and
    it costs more than a years wages to connect to the sewer creating a terrible public health problem as people don’t have access to good drinking water and live amongst waste water

    I bitterly resent our privatised electricity

  23. billie

    Not just ambo resources. Our jails are overflowing with people with addiction and mental health problems. To quote Robert Redford’s character in “The Candidate” (movie still relevant today)

    “There must be a better way”

    On the sewerage sell off – I liked the suggestion by someone yesterday that if Labor had proposed it there would have been a massive Herald-Sun headline “SH*T DEAL!”

  24. A victory for Labor will be a victory for democracy over Murdoch, Stokes and Costello and their media – which IS the media

    Ditto at the Federal level

    Linking Dan to lose is deliberate as is the reference to minority government, linking Labor to the toxic Greens

    And will the Channel 9 “News” coverage continue as wall to wall coverage of every crime committed in Melbourne to give the impression we live in a lawless regime including Court cases regurgitating crime where the perpetrators have been before the Courts?

    So reliant on iPhone contact from whoever and Police media

    This from a Network that went broke and can not afford to continue to cover the cricket or bid for AFL coverage

    And then merges with Fairfax as the major party!!

  25. Being out of Victoria for most of election week has been strange. But it got me thinking last night how much Labor have predominated in State and Territory elections in the last 30-40 years. Most conservative state/territory governments in that time have been two or even one term.

    Once the long droughts in Victoria, Queensland and the NT were broken, Labor has dominated government.

    Someone yesterday was talking about the Overton Window – at a state level in Australia there has been a massive shift. More like federal government in Canada where the ‘left’ were in power I think for 60-70 years during the 20th century.

  26. The S#it Deal was my work.

    Perhaps Labor vollies should use “GetS#it done, Don’t Sell S#it off!” today.

    I can report a dramatic swing early this morning at my local booth. Whole bunches of people who thought they were in one electorate didn’t know where the boundary was and have turned out to be in another. This worries me as you would think that the early to vote crowd are more politically engaged, I worry for a late swing gaining momentum on this one 😉

  27. Thanks last night to this who explained so well why the 53:47 ALP:Coal TPP will not result in a landslide for Andrews.

    Also, thanks for the “ratio of the cubes of the TPP” giving a good approximation tot he proportion of seats won. I have not heard this before.

  30. ”
    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, November 24, 2018 at 7:31 am
    Hope the weather in Victoria is nicer today. All my best to the Labor warriors going in to bat for the team today. I wish you all the best of success. Lord knows that Matthew Guy is a malignant force for no good at all.
    ”
    —————————-
    C@tmomma
    More malignant than the one in Federal LNP?

  31. Just voted in the Prahran East polling place.

    I always look at what HTV pamphlets people are holding. If the 15 minutes I was there is anything to go by – a lot of people with only a Green pamphlet, a few people with only a red pamphlet, a lot of people holding both red & green but no blue pamphets. The only blue pamphlets I saw were a smaller amount of people holding all 3, and only one person with just blue in their hand.

    This booth always leans red/green as it straddles Prahran & Windsor. In 2014 it was only 55-45 vs the Liberals but in Higgins ’16 it was 61-39 vs the Liberals.

    Based on what voters were holding, the feeling looks a lot closer to 2016.

    I numbered 1-18 below the line for the LC until I ran out of parties I would want to put a number next to.

  32. Can anybody clarify whether any federal LNP MPs, Ministers or otherwise, campaigned for Voctorian LNP other than CoalMo going with Guy alongwith press entourage to convey condolences to Sisto family? Did CoalMo Campaign at all other than above?
    Also, did Shorten & other Federal ALP MPs campaigned for Victorian ALP?

  36. Ven

    SloMo was the only one seen down here, and only because of the Bourke St incident. Had it not been for that, he presumably would have been asked to stay away entirely. Dutton made noises, but no appearances.

    They trotted out John Howard for a wander around the suburbs though. No idea why. Most people here either don’t like him or don’t remember him.

    TBH I can’t remember if any fed ALP were here.

  38. For those not aware the definition of a Pale Pull-through according to Doreys dictionary of railway titles is:
    Pale pull-through…The thing they use to clean a test tube.

  39. Ven

    AFAIK no Federal LNP ministers or MPs apart from the PM visited us Mexicans during the election campaign.

    I think Bill Shorten might have popped up now and then.

    I would imagine the instructions from the Victorian Liberal HQ was for anyone Federally connected to stay away.

  40. Just as the LNP tried their ‘Kill Bill’ strategy, there is nothing to stop the ALP having a long term and persistent ‘Brand Liberal’ strategy, setting out all the poor things the Libs stand for.

  41. The VEC has organised for 18 tables to be in operation to count pre-poll for and in the seat of Richmond tonight

    So the pre poll will be known reasonably early with a 4pm start (counting to start at 6pm

    Considering how cold it is and if it is 2 counters per table and say 40 scruitineers from all sides this could be the hottest place in Melbourne

    If this number of tables in Richmond and each seat has the same that’s a great effort

  42. Observer, amen to the media comment.

    Yesterday’s Hun’s headline was ‘Dan’s to lose’. For the semiliterate Hun reader (and I use the term reader lightly), would have interpreted the headline to mean Dan is going to lose.

    Of course (yeah right), the Hun means Dan will win and he will do something to lose.

    Get we are poorly served by our fourth estate.

  43. FWIW I used to vote Green in the Senate / Upper House and rusted on ALP in the lower.

    The Greens have had a shocker of a campaign and their Victorian leader has been less than impressive handling the issues and the media.

    Their vetting process of prospective candidates will have to improve 100% if they have any chance of regaining legitimacy at the Federal poll in 2019. It sounds a little like what happened to the Democrats which imploded spectacularly after the 2004 Federal election.

    My partner stood for the Democrats for the seat of Higgins (Vic.) in the 2004 election.

  44. I think that VicLab are doing exactly the right thing by borrowing to fund development for the future, since Vic population increase is already forecast.

  45. D&M

    I think it was here years ago I heard about that ratio of cubes rule. I am similarly just recently digesting this “cube root of population” rule for ideal national Parliament numbers which has been discussed recently.

    Interesting to apply it to a landslide – 2002 Victorian election Labor got 57.78 TPP, which gives a cubes ratio of 2.563. Closest result for 88 seats is 63-25. Actual result was Labor 62 Coalition 24 Independents 2. One of those independents was Craig Ingram, can’t remember who the other was – a ‘left leaning’ one would give the perfect split 63-25

  46. Will be interesting to see how things go tonight. You’d think that Labor would be on track to an easy majority on the numbers they’ve been polling, but it seems the vagaries of electoral distribution might make that a bit more difficult this time around. I put a small punt on Ladbrokes on a hung parliament, but that’s one bet I can’t say I’d be particularly disappointed about losing.

  48. In Mildura

    Sunraysia Daily online survey – biggest issues by far –

    Unhappiness with private management of Mildura Base Hospital

    Unhappiness with Murray-Darling basin management

    Paper gives independent Ali Cupper a good chance of winning. She got 42% TCP last time

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