Newspoll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor in Victoria

Four polls now concur that Labor is set to be returned in Victoria with a favourable swing of 1% to 2%.

As the big day dawns, a gentle reminder for those who have enjoyed by election guide and general campaign coverage that you can show your appreciation by throwing a few pennies into the PressPatron donation facility along the top of the page. Hopefully I’ll find time to say more about the election later this evening, but if I don’t, it’s because I’m furiously busy trying to get my election night results reporting facility ready to go for tomorrow. Suffice to say for now that if you enjoyed by the Wentworth by-election results feature, you ain’t seen nothing yet (assuming of course that it all ends up working okay).

With The Australian bringing us a Newspoll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1077, here is a run through each of the late polls, all of which say much the same thing:

• Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 53.5-46.5, compared with 54-46 at the start of the campaign. The primary votes are Labor 41% (steady, and up from 38.1% in 2014), Coalition 40% (up one, down from 42.0% in 2014) and the Greens 11% (steady, down from 11.5%). Daniel Andrews’ personal ratings are unchanged at 45% approval and 40% disapproval, while Matthew Guy is up three to 34% and steady on 46%, and Andrews’ lead as preferred premier narrows slightly from 45-29 to 45-33. The Liberals have improved on the issue polling since the start of the campaign, going from 39-38 ahead to 45-37 ahead on law and order, and from 45-37 behind to 43-42 behind on the economy, but apparently it hasn’t translated into votes.

• Yesterday’s uComms/ReachTEL poll for The Age had Labor leading 54-46, with primary votes (after removal of the 5.1% undecided) of Labor 40.8%, Coalition 37.8% and Greens 11.0%. The poll was conducted Wednesday from a sample of 1239.

• Yesterday’s YouGov Galaxy poll in the Herald Sun conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1061, had it at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 40%, Coalition 40% and Greens 11%, with Andrews leading Guy 47-35 as preferred premier. I observe that the Herald Sun’s front page headline accompanying the report was “Dan’s to lose”, meaning “the election is Dan’s to lose”, anod not “Dan is to lose the election”.

• Roy Morgan has also turned out an SMS poll, conducted yesterday from a sample of 1469, the selling point of which is that separate results are published for those who have voted already and those who have not. The poll gives Labor a lead of 53-47 among the former and 55-45 among the latter.

I’ve run all that through my poll tracker, the trend results of which are featured below the fold, and the full detail of which can be found on my election guide. The final result, would you believe it, is 53.5-46.5 in favour of Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

157 comments on “Newspoll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor in Victoria”

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  1. @ Grime
    Who will lead the Liberals after today?
    For a moment I thought you were referring to the Federals. No matter, if things go badly for the Vic. Liberals, Morrison is so on the nose in Victoria that Fed Libs will be thinking the same up there in Canberra. The Jewel of the Liberal Party is lost . Chris Uhlmann summed it up pretty well.
    Morrison’s Muppets really screwed themselves. Neither Morrison or Dutton can prevent an election trainwreck. Who else to call on?
    As for Guy, his call on the Richmond facility is testament to the reality that the Libs are so enslaved to conservative ideology that they will deny judicial and medical advice , put users’ lives at even further risk and ignore the reality that majority community opinion supports safe, supervised facilities rather than public shooting galleries.

  2. Interesting observation – After voting I came home, grabbed the dog and walked back up to the pet shop past where I had just voted 15 minutes earlier. On my way up, Matthew Guy pulled up outside the polling place in his “Get Back in Control” bus.

    It was only 15 minutes later that I left the pet shop, walked back, and the bus was already gone. I wonder if in a seat like Prahran where Guy’s policies are poison and they are trying to sell a more “small l” candidate from the medical profession, they really don’t want Matthew Guy’s face anywhere in the vicinity?

    I noticed that no Liberal posters at all had his face on them, only Katie Allen’s. By the same token, I thought it was a missed opportunity by Labor to NOT have any attack posters with Guy’s face up – just to remind voters that a vote for Katie Allen is a vote for a Guy government.

  3. Good luck and thanks to all staffing the voting booths. Not a nice day for it.
    I am heading out shortly to see hubby in hospital. Hope to settle in to a good evening with the count.

  4. Good news on the polling , good luck to all, and many thanks again to William for his coverage. Hope your thingy works, but if it doesn’t, chillax…..all will be well and appreciated.

    To the ALP boots on the ground in Vic today, be happy and crush teh bastards like the bugs they are. 🙂

  5. Long queues at Merri Creek Primary this morning. No Libs handing out at all, the first time this has ever happened.

    Everyone’s been pretty amiable at this very Green booth in an affluent part of the electorate of Brunswick. Hoping for a good result for Cindy O’Connor and Labor generally.

  6. The Liberal candidate was at the polling place where I voted. He is extremely young and extremely Aryan. For I moment I thought I had walked into a Leni Riefenstahl movie. Apparently he’s a rising star of the Liberal Right.

    Another observation: except for the mobile phones that people were holding, the whole voting scene could have been set in the 1970s or earlier. Party volunteers handing out paper how to votes; name crossed off out of a book; paper ballot papers; pencils to write down the numbers.

    It’s strange that when there’s been so much advance in technology, nothing has changed in the way we vote.

  7. “It’s strange that when there’s been so much advance in technology, nothing has changed in the way we vote.”

    I like it that way. Voting machines that have no physical paper trail are to easy to screw with. Democracy is important enough that we employ enough people to do the count by hand, and recount several times if needed.

  8. Are voting machines easy to screw with? We trust machines to keep track of our bank accountst, to detect cancerous tumours and to keep airplanes flying. I find it difficult to believe that there is no reliable technology to record votes.

  9. Heidi Victoria?

    Again, what is her real name?

    Mind you I am told she is on husband number 4 and has a choice selection of language including in parliament

  10. There should be machine printed ballots, that way the machines could keep a tally (as well), and printed ballots could be more easily counted than hand written ones, and easier for the voter to avoid mistakes like duplicate numbers.

  11. They say people get out early to vote for change and there seems no sign of that. All indications point to Labor re-election. Does Guy’s career sleep with the fishes? Or will the Liberals rediscover their compassionate side and give him another go?

    The bigger question may be how the Greens go in inner Melbourne.

  12. @George

    Remember the last census? 🙂

    Short answer is yes, of course, we have the technology to do it. But no one wants to risk having a computer meltdown on the level of the census debacle. Especially as the stakes are much higher in elections.

    It’ll probably happen at some point in the not-too-distant future, but in the meantime, pencil and paper still works.

  13. Of course paper and pencil works. (No doubt there were people saying that when the typewriter was invented.)

    But it means ballots are counted by hand, scrutineers waste everyone’s time with faux arguments (“that doesn’took like a three”) and it takes two to three weeks to declare the result waiting for postal votes to trickle in.

  14. Ali Cupper ads bottom of page 1, all page 2, all of back two pages in Sunraysia Daily. Lots of comparison to Shepparton and how well they have done since electing an independent.

    Even a cartoon of a man looking at a very happy Sheed/Shepparton saying “I’ll have what’s she’s having”

  15. Observer

    Her real name is Heidi New South Wales. 🙂

    It’s not relevant if she is the Zsa Zsa Gabor of Victorian politics. Or if she uses salty language. She’s not another boring white guy in a suit (read: Michael O’Brian) which is why the Victorian Liberal Party will choose her.

  16. I’m ok with machine voting that prints out the vote as well. A copy instantly to the voter, and a copy that can be reviewed by the voter but retained by the machine / AEC. That way the voter can check that their vote has been recorded properly in durable fashion on the day, AND there is a reliable record archived for any recount if the result is disputed. Make it easy for people to use. Actually, set up along the lines of an ATM?? Could maybe even set it up so that people get told in the booth if they have somehow managed to vote informal and can correct that at the time??

  17. So what if it takes two or three weeks to get an election result. Better than a fraudulent result after two or three days.

    But be honest. How many times has it happened? A few recently to be sure but I would wager most elections we know who has won on the night, it’s just a matter of the margin.

  18. Voting machines and electronic voting have never worked reliably anywhere, ever. Some countries have tried to introduce it only to withdraw it (Netherlands and Germany), and the USA continues to give us good ongoing real life state-by-state examples of what can go wrong with all kinds of once state of the art machines that are now on the verge of collapse because no one wants to spend the money on continuous updates. DON’T DO IT.

  19. ‘laughtong says:
    Saturday, November 24, 2018 at 10:59 am

    Good luck and thanks to all staffing the voting booths. Not a nice day for it.
    I am heading out shortly to see hubby in hospital. Hope to settle in to a good evening with the count.’

    Best wishes for you hubby.

  20. Heidi Victoria could be lucky to be back in parliament. Bayswater needs a 4.2 per cent swing and its those eastern suburbs heartland seats that will be affected by the RW take over of the liberal party.

    That part of Melbourne does seem to be trending more left recently if you look at the make up of the local governments.

    It’s the urban fringe/ newer suburbs where it takes 60 mins to drive 5 k to work and they do have a lot of bored youths that Labor will struggle more with.

  21. Voted at a normally very Liberal booth early this morning and noticed that all the HTVs people were carrying were Labor ones… May be significant. Just about to head out to my stint there now I’ve finished work. Should be a great night, I think.

  22. Estonia has used electronic voting happily for many years, and there are few countries more aware of Russian hacking that Estonia. The ACT has taken up to a quarter of its votes by electronic voting for more than a decade, and NSW will be using internet voting for the third time in March 2019 and roll out some electronic voting.

    Electronic voting for pre-poll voting in person will be common within a decade. Pre-poll centres may also be used to take polling day electronic votes. It is doubtful there will ever be single day polling place electronic voting. There will be limited use of internet voting of some sort as a replacement for postal voting. Postal voting will be dead within a decade.

    With the census going on-line, elections are now the largest paper based event in Australia.

    The demise of large scale printing is already causing problems for electoral commissions. At the Tasmanian state election earlier this year, electronic mark-off had to be used as there were no printers in the state that could print copies of the roll with sufficient quality and quantity in time to ensure post-election roll scanning for non-voters was accurate.

    Especially if Senate ballot papers continue with their current size, there will come a time when trying to get ballot papers printed in quantity with short turn around will become a problem, especially for early voting.

    Electronic absent pre-poll is especially a priority as this is the area where quantity and security of ballot papers is the greatest problem.

  23. I’ve had my democracy sausage and eaten it too. I also purchased some chocolate bars in aid of the local school, so guess what I’ll be scoffing tonight as I watch the count.

    My electorate is Ferntree Gully.

    The queue was non-existent and I had to wait all of about 30 seconds to be directed to a table to get my papers. Hardly any posters anywhere. The bloke handing out ALP how-to-votes was wearing a blue jacket for some reason.

    The bloke who gave my my papers still said “1 above the line or 5 below the line”, which worries me that some people might be misled into thinking 5 is a maximum, not a minimum. I corrected him with, “at least 5 below the line”, but I don’t know if it sunk in.

    I voted below the line up to 12.

  24. I have just completed an extended HTV stint at my local Primary School and can report all is positive for Labor.

    Despite continuous rain for most of the morning, business was brisk.

    Only ALP and Libs handing out near the voting booth. But, there was Socialist in the car park trying to catch and walk voters to the booth. No doubt teaching pregnant mothers about false consciousness and the means of reproduction.

    One observation is that a heck of a lot of people weren’t taking HTV of any colour and the phrase ” Thanks but I know who I’m voting for” was on very high rotation.

    The absence of Greens and Independent HTVs may also be part of the explanation for this phenomenon.

    There was no animosity directed at our local Member and this is a very strong Labor booth in a strong Labor area. So, I’m taking the reaction as being pro-Labor.

    My confidence is growing from what I saw this morning.

    Will be scrutineering later on and sipping from the keg of victory after that.

  25. Can anyone recall what the Green Vote was in the last batch of polls leading into the 2014 Victorian State election? I recall the greens didn’t quite live up to their polling.
    Currently, the polling has the Greens about the same level as the last election. But, this could be masking a declining in their vote if the polls over-estimate the green vote.

  26. George says:
    Saturday, November 24, 2018 at 11:23 am

    It’s strange that when there’s been so much advance in technology, nothing has changed in the way we vote.

    Maybe that is because it works well and is very safe.

  27. Just checking the poll bludger achieve:

    The three opinion poll on the eve of the 2014 election (Newspoll, Ipsos and ReachTEL) has the greens on 12, 15 and 13.5 respectively. Their actual vote was 11.21%

    The recent polls (Newspoll, Morgan, Galaxy and RechTEL) have the greens on 11%, 13%, 11% and 10.4%.

    Looks like a small swing away from the greens is likely

  28. Good luck and strength to all those out there today working hard to ensure the return of a strong Labor government in Victoria. Will be watching with interest from Adelaide and hoping that tonight is not a repeat of our election night. Fortunately, that seems very unlikely.

  29. Voted. Had sausage for lunch. Thanked all volunteers. Made a donation to a young girl selling lollies for her nearby primary school (which unlike this one is not a polling place so misses out).

    As always I think of the millions of people around the world who would love to have the privilege of voting, and all those in the past who similarly missed out.

    Vote for King Richard!
    Get back in. Control!
    Vote for King John!
    He speaks your language!

    (I think Richard only spoke French, not that vulgar English!)

  30. It looks like Ladbrokes has suspended betting on the Victorian election. Sportsbet is now offering 1.07 for Labor and 10.00 for the Coalition.

  31. Only ALP and Libs handing out near the voting booth. But, there was Socialist in the car park trying to catch and walk voters to the booth.

    You should have walked over to him and said, ‘How are you going, nath?’ 😆

  32. Voted early, voted often, here in Narracan

    Fat chance of change, but Motown is still a stronghold for Labor.
    Re: Antony Green says @Saturday, November 24, 2018 at 12:52 pm

    Before I voted (early and often), I filled up at the local servo; the guy there reckoned he voted online!!??

    Said he got the info from the local Post Office.

    He’s not usually full of BS, and I have no reason to disbelieve him, but . . . wot! I hope he didn’t have the wool pulled over his eyes, whoever he votes for.
    Looking forward to the count tonight.

    One of my kids votes in Bayswater, so will be looking out for that area, too. I think he voted Greens, with Labor at 2.

  33. Just voted in Niddrie. Very short queue, no sausages (the primary school even cancelled their fete, as they didn’t have enough interested parents.
    Only volunteers were one Labor and two Hinch! No advertising except one Hinch sign and one Liberal sign. I’m glad there were no fences wrapped in plastic.

  34. Dropped into the Inverloch voting booth just after lunch.The vibe was pretty relaxed(the sun was out),no snags to be smelt so perhaps already sold out.
    There was a line waiting to vote but it moved steadily.I liked the card that the unions presented to me,vote Liberal last of the eight candidates.
    After voting I had a quite word with the red shirt volunteer and she was very happy with the mood (read change is in the air)She spoke eloquently of the local Inverloch/Wonthaggi country end of the seat grass roots campaign run by the Labor candidate Former Bass Coast mayor Jordan Crugnale .The ALP feels they are close to taking the seat from the Libs and more so with the the suburban end of the seat based around Pakenham suffering a huge growth spurt in recent years putting immense pressure on infrastructure.

  35. no snags to be smelt

    Keerist, you guys must have good teeth if you have to smelt ya snags. 😁 (Sorry)

    Seems like the Vic election is where PB is today. Very upbeat. 🙂

  36. Hi there C@t

    How are you doing?

    Things are going okay for me. Missing Ginnie like hell; still wake up feeling round the bed for her to make sure she’s okay.

    I’ve been flat out recently. Got another part-time job; takes up all my spare time, what with the other full-time one. So barely any time to catch up here. Although I browse occasionally, and have a bit of a chuckle at the ongoing bash-bash.

    And bloody Christmas just round the corner.

    Still, I earmarked today as the day I wasn’t to be interrupted. Wanted to make sure I could watch it all come together in Vic – and bloody the Evangelist’s nose at the same time.

    Hope you’re well. And kids are okay. Cheers.

  37. I found that cartoon that was in independent Ali Cupper’s ad in the Sunraysia Daily.

    Can’t understand why it won’t post. Pasting the url shows it.

    Anyway its on her facebook page in ‘photos’ about 78 photos in.

  38. Electronic voting is a bloody daft idea – electronic voting being done badly is a significant part of why US elections are so dysfunctional they really need international observers in many places. There are so many ways in which, given either shonky or incompetent people in charge, it opens up possibilities for everything from depressing voter turnout in targeted areas to outright electoral fraud. We have an unimpeachable electoral process as it is – messing with one thing we actually do just fine so we can copy countries where voting is very much not fine because “technology” is unwise.

  39. I just finished a five hour shift at the largest booth in Bayswater. Queues were way down on previous elections, even further down than I would normally expect given the increased prepoll. The RO came out more than once to check to see where all the voters had gone.

    There was no great enthusiasm for any party, and at least a third didn’t take a HTV at all, but on the percentages of how to vote cards taken it felt to me like a status quo election with Heidi Victoria under no particular threat. This was a real contrast to other elections where I’ve seen a mood to punish one party or another and people aggressively seek out the HTV of the party that goes on to win comfortably.

    I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the participation rate ends up coming in well under the average. The near complete absence of bunting may go some way to explain this – much less noise on school fences reminding people that it’s polling day. (C@tmomma- bunting is now banned at Victoria elections so nobody has fence wraparounds, it’s not a cashflow issue.)

    The Greens vote feels noticeably down, as one would expect given that we currently have the most progressive ALP government Victoria has seen for many years.

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