Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

Turnbull down on approval, but steady on voting intention.

The first Newspoll result from The Australian in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up one). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 42-31 to 41-33, and he has taken a knock on his personal ratings, with approval down three to 32% and disapproval up four to 56%. Bill Shorten is respectively steady on 33%, and up two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1583.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

594 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Confessions @ #541 Monday, October 16th, 2017 – 10:33 pm

    Kayjay:

    I never said Jimmy Barnes’ story was sad. Not sure where you got that from.

    Ides:

    Remember that George Christenson is in the House. Surely that’s got to be the best reason for looking to the Senate for possible Nats leaders!! 😀

    One of the other panellists made the sad comment.

  5. IoM

    I havent played the card yet though .If the Libs would go nuts over a female leader imagine the Nats.

    I thought that’s where you were heading but if the Nats suddenly are minus 2 or 3 members I think the would cope with it.

    The Deputy PM while ‘acting’ generally only says and does what is approved by the PMO.

    It’s not a ‘powerful’ job … the biggest upside for the occupant is that it looks good on their resume.

  7. kayjay:

    I missed that remark from a panel member. Personally I was cheering his brutal honesty about his life and obviously understanding why he is often approached to be the face of men’s health campaigns.

  10. ‘fess

    Wilkinson about 6 times more useful than ‘Karl’.

    If she’s reached at point where she’s not going to put up any more with the patent clown getting paid more than her then, I think, she’s well past the point when she should have walked.

    Good on her. Management won’t admit it but I think they’ll understand very quickly that they should have coughed up the money.

  12. kayjay:

    I know a few people with Barnes’ experiences, yet none of them have the ability or willingness to speak openly and honestly about them.

  14. [Confessions
    Ides:

    Why does the Nats leader have to be in the HoR? Unless it’s a specific line item in the coalition agreement, I don’t see why the party leader couldn’t sit in the Senate.]

    My take on the Nats leader needing to be in the House of Reps.

    The Government is based around the Member who has the majority support of the Members of the House of Representatives.

    The Deputy would require the same support.

    That support is measured by having the confidence of the House.

    A no confidence motion in the House may only be moved against a Member of the House.

    So to be able to test the confidence of the House in the Government by the PM and their Deputy need to be Members.

    Remember Barnaby switched from the Senate to the House so he could be the next Nats leader.

  15. CTar:

    Karl is a total lightweight. I don’t watch the show so have no clue what may have motivated Wilkinson to stay under such conditions and can only compare and contrast with her then Ch7 counterpart Melissa someone who was ditched leaving her ageing male equivalent in the chair even though he was arguably worse than she was.

    But isn’t it interesting that women anchors being treated as 2nd rate performers has come up in the wake of the Weinstein revelations? Women in the media and on film have a long history of degradation, discrimination and abuse and here we are in 2017 and it would seem nothing really has changed.

  17. GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes 18m18 minutes ago
    More
    #Newspoll QLD State Primary Votes: ALP 37 (0) LNP 34 (0) ON 16 (+1) GRN 8 (0) #qldpol #auspol

  18. GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes 19m19 minutes ago
    More
    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (-1) LNP 48 (+1) #qldpol #auspol

  19. Barney:

    Yes it’s convention but nothing more. There isn’t to my knowledge a constitutional requirement that the PM sits in the House, therefore one can assume there is similarly no requirement the DPM does either.

  20. prettyone
    When it comes out take a look at the SSM result. It should make it obvious as to what lies ahead for the Liberal party.

  21. DiGD

    A no confidence motion in the House may only be moved against a Member of the House.

    So to be able to test the confidence of the House in the Government by the PM and their Deputy need to be Members.

    If the parliament is not sitting no ‘motions’ can be launched.

    An election is just around the corner so avoiding having the Nat acting when Parliament is sitting is no big deal and leaves no time at which a confidence motion could be launched.

    Not manageable for a full term however …

  23. Looking at those Qld numbers: ALP 37, LNP 34, ON 16, GRN 8, leaving Others (OTH) on 5.

    Assuming 6.5 from GRN and 2.5 OTH Preference ALP, that gives ALP 46 plus whatever share of ON preferences. To get to 52 they must be getting 6/16 from One Nation. This must mean there are a lot if Queenslanders who want Labor policies plus the White Australia Policy.

    Since the last election, the Qld Parliament has amended the voting system to full preferential, whereas last time it was optional. There might be a high informal vote. Don’t know how that will affect the result.

  25. ‘fess – It’s hard to understand why Wilkinson stayed as long as she did.

    I think she’d have been offered other jobs but for some reason she’s stuck it out for now.

    Maybe she’s become real estate ambitious in a big way and simply wants to be sure she’s got it covered by herself.

    Who knows …

    On a female Nat being deputy PM, both Nash and Mackenzie are brash enough to hold their ground.

  26. The Prime Minister is not mentioned in the Constitution, just Ministers, who need to be either members of the House, members of the Senate, or get themselves into one or other chamber within 90 days of appointment. In the context of the Constitution, the PM is just a minister. The requirement that he/she be in the House rather than the Senate is a convention, and probably a practicality since Governments are formed there.

  27. CTar:

    It’s the same old same old. Underperforming men will always trump competent women. We need to move beyond this to realise true equality.

  28. @Steve777

    I think ALP would be happy with those numbers. I’m trying to find an article on the poll, will probably be on tomorrow’s Australian. One thing is for sure Reachtel state polls seem to skew against ALP.

    Would like to see a Newspoll for Victoria and NSW but non-Reachtel polling of those states have been very scarce.

  29. Steve777:

    Yes, as I said to Ides, it won’t matter if a Joyce HC disqualification eventuates that a Senator from the Nats is elected Nats leader even if temporary. Bottom line there is no Constitutional requirement for the PM to come from the HoR therefore same can be said for DPM.

  31. The Constitution only requires that ministers are MPs or Senators (except for no more than 3 months). The Constitution does not even mention any specific minister, such as the PM. The PM coming from the lower house is from the UK where it is a Lords versus Commons issue (and a Lord PM was not unheard of over 100 years ago).

    Indian PM 2004-2014 Manmohan Singh was a member of the Rajya Sabha (the Council of States), not the Lok Sabha (House of the People).

  33. Wilkinson was only offered $1,800,000 to do what? then Karl or Carl or whatever the fek his name is is paid $2. something or other million. The world has gone absolutely bonkers, so can someone please stop it……I want to get off

  36. Steve777
    Looking at those Qld numbers: ALP 37, LNP 34, ON 16, GRN 8, leaving Others (OTH) on 5.

    Assuming 6.5 from GRN and 2.5 OTH Preference ALP, that gives ALP 46 plus whatever share of ON preferences. To get to 52 they must be getting 6/16 from One Nation. This must mean there are a lot if Queenslanders who want Labor policies plus the White Australia Policy.

    I think it’s useful to see ON-attraction as an expression of hostility towards the status quo rather than support “for” any particular program. ON voters are basically angry. They are particularly angry with the LNP, who they feel have betrayed their economic interests.

    Earlier this evening grimace and I were exchanging a few texts. This reminded me that the last time the Right were so divided in Australia was in the period from the late 1920s through to the war years. This era included Labor’s best two election wins and culminated in the dissolution of the UAP.

    The same pop-Right tendencies that we see in contemporary politics – tendencies that are responses to intractable economic and social pressures – were also present in even more pronounced forms through the 1930s. At the same time tensions between big business and small enterprise also fed disaffection with the UAP.

    We can recognise similar conflicts of interest in both the current Liberal and National Parties. We can also see that the dalliance of “mainstream” Right politicians with the Crazy Right ended badly for them all by 1943. Competition from the Crazies – in our context, ON, Bernardi, Abbott and his allies, the Shooters, X and others – can destroy the LNP as we know it.

  44. Bill Shorten
    Bill Shorten
    @billshortenmp
    ·
    2h
    If you need to know anything about what Turnbull’s announcing today, this says it all.

    RE Tony Abbott

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