Live Commentary
9:01pm 88% of booths have been counted. The last 12% are probably bigger booths, so they could have a larger impact on the result than you would think. The right has 66 of 129 seats currently. Opportunity is at 5.9%, and will clear the 5% threshold.
8:48pm Lab is starting to climb again, up to 29.06% after falling to 28.95%. Nat has lost leads in two electorates, and now lead electorates by 41-22 over Lab with five TPM. The right overall has 66 of 129 seats, one above the 65 required for a majority with 83% overall counted.
8:36pm Nat now winning electorates by 43-20 over Labour with five TPM, two Greens and one ACT. With 79% overall counted, the right has 68 of 131 seats, two above the 66 needed for a majority.
8:16pm Nat loses the lead in an electorate seat, now winning electorates by 41-21 over Lab. With 70% overall counted, the right has 66 out of 129 total seats.
8:08pm With 66% overall counted, Lab’s drop continues as they now trail Nat by 0.36%. The right is winning 67 of 130 seats.
7:54pm Lab continues to drop as the election day vote comes in, now trailing Nat by 0.1%, with Opportunity at 5.7%. With 56.6% counted overall, Nat leads the 71 electorates by 42-20 over Lab, with five for TPM, three Greens and one ACT. Right-wing parties have an overall 67 out of 131 seats on current counting, a majority.
7:44pm As the election day vote has started to come in, Lab and Nat are back to a virtual tie (Lab by 0.03) with 51% overall counted. On the advance votes, Lab led by 0.7%. Right-wing parties are just above a majority with 67 of the 131 total seats.
7:23pm There are now about 75,000 election day votes counted out of nearly 1.6 million total. So far Lab is doing a little worse and Nat a little better on these votes, which are probably unrepresentative. With 40% overall counted, the overhang is up to 11 seats, with Nat winning the electorates over Lab by 42-20 despite losing the party vote by 0.34%. The right has 66 of these 131 current seats.
7:10pm Greens are helping Nat win some seats under FPTP. Eg in Nelson, Nat lead Lab by 406 with the Greens on over 2,200 votes, though ACT has 978.
6:57pm With 31.9% counted, Lab leads Nat by 0.44% on party votes, but Nat is leading on electorates by 41-21, with TPM still winning five electorates. This is producing a 10-seat overhang, with the right having 65 of 130 seats, one short of a majority. There are not many election day votes counted yet.
6:35pm Despite trailing Lab by 0.5% on party votes, Nat leads Lab by 42-20 in the electorates. That’s currently giving the right 66 of 130 seats.
6:24pm Nat’s seat lead over Lab is down to 40-22 with 26% in, with the right no longer having an overall majority, currently they’re at 64 of 128 seats.
6:18pm Labour overtakes Nat on party votes by 0.1% with 24.9% counted, but they’re still losing the electorate count by 41-21.
6:12pm With 23.5% counted overall, Nat is just 0.1% ahead of Labour on party votes, and the overall right is down to a bare majority 65 seats out of 129. Opportunity is at 5.4%, above the 5% threshold. Nat leads Lab on electorate seats by 41-21.
5:48pm With 17.5% overall counted, National has lost a lead in an electorate, so they’re down to 42 electorate seats out of 71. The right-wing parties have 67 of 129 seats. The gap between National and Labour’s party vote has been narrowing.
5:42pm In the Maori electorate of Waiariki, TPM is so far getting nearly 5,000 electorate votes but just 735 party votes. This explains why TPM is only getting 0.4% of the national party vote while winning five electorates.
5:30pm With 9.7% in, there’s a nine-seat overhang (129 seats). Nat, ACT and NZF have a combined 68 seats on current counting, enough for a right majority without needing Opportunity.
5:22pm With 5.4% of booths in, National is winning 41 electorate seats, three higher than its entitlement, and TPM is winning five electorates, five higher than entitled given its party vote of just 0.3%. If this holds, parliament will have 128 seats, an eight-seat overhang.
5:11pm There’s already some results from Advance voting. With 1.2% counted, National 31.0%, Labour 29.8%, Greens 12.2%, ACT 11.0%, NZ First 9.4%, Opportunity 5.7% and TPM 0.3%.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 5pm AEDT today for the New Zealand election. Advance (pre-poll) votes will be counted quickly after polls close, with election day votes taking longer. NZ media don’t use booth-matched swings. The final election night count is still preliminary, with no further updates until final results are reported on November 27. In past elections, left-wing parties have gained one or two seats from the preliminary results to the final results.
NZ uses the Mixed Member Proportional system with a nominal 120 seats in parliament. To qualify, parties must either win at least 5% of the party list vote or at least one of the 71 single-member electorates. However, if a party wins more electorates than their entitlement from the party vote, they keep their extra seats and parliament is expanded (an “overhang”).
I wrote about the final three pre-election polls for The Conversation on Friday. If the polls are accurate, right-wing governing parties (National, ACT and NZ First) will have a 2—5 point lead over left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori (TPM)). But the centrist Opportunity has between 5.1% and 6.2%. If they clear the 5% threshold, they are likely to gain the balance of power between the left and right.
There are seven electorates reserved for those on the Māori roll. In Monday’s Conversation article, I said if TPM wins at least three of these electorates, they would get an overhang, as they’re at 2% or less in national polls. Other possibilities of overhangs involve one of Labour or National overperforming in electorates (as both traditional major parties’ votes are low).
US mid-term election updates
Democrats are increasingly likely to win the Senate by 56—44 over Republicans, a nine-seat gain for Democrats. In the Mississippi Senate contest, Democrat Scott Colom has kept extending his lead since election night over Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. Colon now leads by 0.27 points or nearly 2,600 votes. I previously wrote that late counting in Alaska will strongly favour Democrat Mary Peltola.
In the House, Democrats lead Republicans by 254—162 in called races with 19 still uncalled. Most uncalled seats have Republican leads, including two Louisiana seats that had “jungle primaries” on Tuesday and will go to runoffs on December 12. If uncalled seats are assigned to current leaders, Democrats are leading by 259—176. Republican Lauren Boebert is currently losing her Colorado fourth seat by 0.83 points.
The Cook Political Report now has a popular vote tracker, with Democrats leading by 55.7—42.9, a 12.8-point margin. This lead will expand further as Democratic strongholds like California are slow to count their votes. The swing to the Democrats from a 2.6-point Republican margin in 2024 has enabled them to overcome Republican gerrymanders in some states to make gains, with only Louisiana’s gerrymander likely to be successful (pending the runoffs).
I mentioned before that Democrats had taken full control in Pennsylvania and Michigan (governor and both chambers of the state legislature). Democrats also took full control in Arizona for the first time in 60 years, and in Wisconsin for the first time since 2010.
Israeli and Spanish election updates
At the October 27 Israeli election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition won 53 of the 120 seats, Jewish opposition parties 48 and Arab parties 19. On Thursday, Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the largest opposition party, secured endorsements from 67 MPs (the opposition bloc plus the Arab parties), while Netanyahu only had endorsements from 46, with the ultra-Orthodox UTJ, which is part of Netanyahu’s bloc, abstaining. President Isaac Herzog will announce his decision Sunday on who gets the first opportunity to form a government. That candidate will have six weeks to form a government.
I previously wrote on October 20 about the snap November 29 Spanish election. Polls still mostly have the conservative People’s Party (PP) ahead of the governing Socialists, with 19—20% for the populist right Vox, indicating a combined majority of seats for PP and Vox. However, the most recent poll has the Socialists leading the PP, although the combined vote for national right-wing parties is still ahead of the combined left vote.
If ABC did what RNZ’s coverage is doing they’d end up in senate estimates over it for a year.
Spectic – There are only 71 electorates (64 Normal and 7 Maori).
I think at the moment the electorate count is:
42 National
20 Labour
3 Green
5 Maori
1 ACT
I think with late vote counting the Left should get a majority if Opportunity backs them which is the Big Question ?
A NZ friend years ago told me (from memory) that they had a two stage referendum between the 1993 and 1996 elections (or plebiscite – I think they don’t really have referenda) for the electoral system. The first was ‘do you want to change the system?’ – when the answer was ‘yes’ they were then presented with various alternatives, not including what they had just come from, and people chose MMP.
I think in NZ the unicameral Parliament can change the constitution for important things with a 75% majority. For instance they could cut ties with monarchy by a vote in Parliament!
If you want some idea of what would be happening if New Zealand hadn’t adopted MMP, National leads in 42 constituency seats, Labour in 20, the Maori Party in 5, Green in 3 and ACT NZ in 1.
ETA: So what B.S. Fairman said, except that Labour have overtaken the Maori Party in one of the Maori seats.
The Labour watch party on RNZ looks ebullient
The way I am reading things at the moment the National group is borderline able to form government without Opportunity but can with their support.
Labour group is a few seats short of a majority and with Opportunity it’s borderline.
It’s going to be a interesting period ahead.
Winston Peters sounds much more coherent than that other octogenarian Donald Trump.
Cards close to his chest
TPP up to 5.6% with 53% returned, this is all but certain they will pass the 5% threshold.
Mr Bowe – I have corrected my post now.
The Nat leads in Mt Roskill and Hamilton East are down to 84 and 30 votes, so there’s two potential overhang seats in the balance. The other close seats seem to be getting less close.
I’ve read up about this “overhang” thing.
So, under MMP, if a party wins more seats despite being behind on the overall “%” count which MMP would allocate, then they get to keep that seat which they’ve won (on FPTP).
So despite the NAT’s falling behing LAB on the primary vote, the gov’t (NAT/NZF/ACT) are maintaining/gaining their seats. So maintaining/gaining seats overrides the overall national “%” primary figure for the parties.
It appears, the NZ system doesn’t flip seats in this situation. What they do is “increase the size” of Parliament, handing extra seats to the party who comes first in electorates.
FWIW, I believe this is a mumbo jumbo way of allocating seats in Parliament.
Regardless, having read the detailed report from another poster earlier this evening, I think this election is heading to a NAT/NZF/ACT win. I think PM Luxon will hang on.
Bird of Paradox
Yes this from ‘thecount.co.nz’ site
Special votes (about 1 in 5 votes in 2023) are counted after election night. In 2020 and 2023 they moved the party vote by, on average: Green +0.6, Labour +0.5, Te Pāti Māori +0.3, Opportunity +0.2, NZ First −0.2, ACT −0.4, National −1.1 points, and flipped 3 electorates (2020) and 4 (2023), all towards Labour or Te Pāti Māori.
If 2026 specials behave like 2020/2023: Labour 35 → 36, NZ First 12 → 11
Electorates that specials could flip (lead under ~2.5 points over Labour, Green or Te Pāti Māori): Hamilton East (0.1 pts), Mt Roskill (0.4 pts), Whangārei (1.2 pts)
Special Votes are ‘declaration votes’ – mainly from people outside their electorate.
Bird of Paradox – I apologise for being a smart-alec earlier this evening.
Thanks for dropping the overhang report. You are good, honest sort here.
Greens Political Party NZ is going off.
nadia
I agree – I think Government will hold on very narrowly. Only if National lose a few electorate seats to Special votes could they be under half the seats I think, and even then it wouldn’t be over – just more like an Israel-type multi-party chaos situation where it becomes like one of those puzzles trying to get the different animals across a river using one boat but not leaving any animals who will eat each other on either bank!
Situation at 8pm AEDST with over 60% of the vote counted.
Very murky situation indeed.
It’s likely one or both of NZ First and ACT will lose a seat in late counting (meaning a couple of weeks). It’s also probable National will not win Hamilton East, and possibly Mt. Roskill.
My prognosis : The current government will fall a seat or two short of majority.
Rocket Rocket – yeah, I think they’ll hang on.
I’ll wait until AB calls it. I’m guessing he’s getting close to doing so.
I note the Nats have just overtaken Labour on the primary too.
Nats 29.5%
Labour 29.1%
We wait. The NZ TV networks haven’t called it as yet.
Surely no-one is calling anything tonight on these figures.
Arange (if you’re floating around) – what’s your read?
I’m guessing the final decision will be up to Winston Peters and NZ First.
Neither Luxon or Hipkins can govern without his support, so it’s all up in the air until he makes his move.
Remember, unlike in Australia, late counting (postals and whatever the equivalent of absents is) normally favours the left in New Zealand. I have no idea why.
NZF (aka Winston Peters) will support whichever side gives him the best ministerial position (IMHO).
He has more positions than a Hindley Street working girl.
There is still the “special” votes count. What we would call declaration and absentee votes. Due to various social-economic situations they tend to slight favour the left.
@Ante Meridian this is because overseas votes typically skew left
Rich boomers stay in NZ, the working class leave to Australia and beyond to find work.
Ah. Thanks echt and GoW.
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:18 pm
Rich boomers stay in NZ, the working class leave to Australia and beyond to find work.
=============
Do you think the “NZ working class vote in Australia” will provide a boost?
The latest YouGov “Working class vote” had One Nation at 32%
We can dispense with the other primaries.
Link: https://www.news24.com.au/politics/australian-politics/albaneses-poll-nightmare-deepens-as-voters-turn-on-labor-and-angus-taylor-takes-over-as-preferred-pm/news-story/756ce5bbfcc617e4c05a17856655861b
Don’t expect the “working class vote” to come through for Labour in NZ, if that is what you are suggesting. They don’t vote Labour/Labor these days.
Labour back in front in Hamilton East. The gap in Mt. Roskill continues to hover around 200 votes.
Nadia at 7:52 pm: no worries. 🙂
And in Hamilton East, before the metaphorical ink was dry on my previous post, National regains the lead by 34 votes. I wish they’d make up their minds.
Clearly the working class vote is very anti-incumbent right now but not locked in for any particular party
Opportunity almost at 6%, I think we can call them as making it now.
Can anyone explain to me why National is still doing so well former Labour strongholds like Mt Roskill and other seats? I’m pretty sure a former labour leader held that seat.
Why is national so popular? And if they are not why are they likely to return to government? Do New Zealanders not like kicking a government after one term?
Also yet another election where there is an anti-incumbent swing
Labour now 89 in front in Wellington Bays, potentially taking that off the Greens. The current MP will make it back on the list so it doesn’t change much.
Labor also in the mix in Wairarapa, the Nat lead down to 110. Nat by 34 in Hamilton East.
Takeaway from RNZ live.. NZ is circa 1960.. but so good natured about it all
@Daniel T at 8:36pm
NZ Nationals tend to do well in their MMP system, mainly because they still go by First Past the Post for the electoral votes in the 71 districts that go that way.
Labour/Greens usually lose out by fighting against each other and only get seats via the remaining List vote.
Daniel T, the last one term government in NZ lost in 1975.
Historically, despite the addition of the… errr… quirks of MMP, NZers do not boot out governments after one term.
From that perspective, the various left parties even getting close to a change of government is interesting.
84.7% counted, and we are waiting on the Australian diaspora vote.
Is this correct, or has it already been counted?
Labour in front in Hamilton East and Wairarapa now, so notional total seats down to 129. Labour are 474 up in Wairarapa – big shift there.
This NZ election is too confusing, what is the TPP? How are these extra seats allocated?? When do we get postals and other votes? On the plus side they vote on a Saturday.
Just shy of 85% counted…
{Comparison with the 2023 election}
* NAT 29.4 (-8.66)
* LAB 29.1 (+2.19)
* GRN 13.4 (+1.8)
* ACT 11.0 (+2.36)
* NZF 9.8 (+3.72)
* Opp 5.9 (+3.7)
nadia says:
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:47 pm
For what it’s worth AI says NZ living in Australia can’t vote
Chris Hipkins (Labour) talking now.
No concession.
You can enrol and vote from overseas if all the following statements are true:
you are 18 years or older.
you’ve lived in New Zealand for more than 12 months continuously at some time in your life
you are one of the following:
are a New Zealand citizen who has been in New Zealand within the past three years, or
are a New Zealand resident for electoral purposes who has been in New Zealand within the past 12 months.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-07/nz-election-2026-live-blog/107355448
nadia says:
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:54 pm
Chris Hipkins (Labour) talking now.
No concession.
_____________
Good stuff, obviously not a fan of the Tas ALP approach to minority negotiations.
Sceptic – I think they can vote, but I don’t think it will make a difference tonight.
The tone of Chris Hipkins’ speech is not good.