Morgan: Labor 26, Coalition 23.5, One Nation 22.5 (open thread)

Roy Morgan produces the first federal poll in two months to have the Coalition ahead of One Nation.

The fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition nudging into second place with a two-point gain to 23.5%, while One Nation is down one-and-a-half to 22.5%. Labor is steady on 26% and the Greens have gained half a point to 15.5%. Labor holds respondent-allocated two-party leads of 55-45 over One Nation, out from 54.5-45.5, and 52.5-47.5 over One Nation, in from 53-47. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on previous election preference flows is in from 53.5-46.5 to 53-47. The poll was conducted October 12 to 25 from a sample of 2711. The full release features breakdowns for the five mainland states.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

120 thoughts on “Morgan: Labor 26, Coalition 23.5, One Nation 22.5 (open thread)”

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  4. “UN experts are disappointed that bills to ban shackling during childbirth and strip-searching children were blocked by the major parties.

    The independent senator Lidia Thorpe introduced the bills to the Senate, where Labor and the Coalition blocked their progress.

    The UN human rights council special procedures experts said Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women and children were disproportionately affected by the measures:

    It is disappointing that parliament was not given the opportunity to formally decide on reforms aimed at protecting the dignity, bodily integrity and rights of women and children deprived of liberty.

    The failure of these bills to proceed should not mark the end of efforts to address these longstanding human rights concerns.

    We encourage Australian authorities and parliamentarians to continue pursuing reforms.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/oct/27/one-nation-pauline-hanson-independent-jacqui-lambie-labor-anthony-albanese-coalition-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-6adfe76f8f085119a57b4976#block-6adfe76f8f085119a57b4976

  6. Department officials have rejected the prime minister’s claim that a $6 million grant promised to Marrickville Golf Club was to fix sewage issues.
    Labor MPs voted down an attempt by the Coalition to compel Anthony Albanese to explain why he told the chamber the grant’s purpose was to upgrade the club’s sewerage system.
    What’s next?
    Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie says the prime minister has misled parliament and should correct the record.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-27/pm-claim-marrickville-golf-grant-sewage-fix-rejected/107313346

  9. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 12:57 pm
    Department officials have rejected the prime minister’s claim that a $6 million grant promised to Marrickville Golf Club was to fix sewage issues.
    _______________________
    So he lied to Parliament.

  10. Good post from The Gherk on Facebook

    https://www.facebook.com/TheGherksPerspective/posts/pfbid033P2VAS6ZKEo2HJKkdPCJWUVR8vKsCXjBPzqXY3tVQSAZpHaXTmeSSHkctpSbZyxGl

    THE FIVE STAGES OF GRIEVANCE POLITICS
    Know the signs, because once you see the pattern, it becomes very difficult to unsee.

    It usually starts with something small. A council tree. A school form. A flag. A grant. A sign. Some bloke in a cardigan saying “inclusive language”. Nothing that would normally survive longer than six minutes in the national consciousness.

    Then someone strips out the boring context. The lifespan. The actual cost breakdown. The existing law. The fact the policy already existed. The part where the thing is considerably less terrifying once you read past the headline.

    Context is dangerous. Context makes people calm down, and calm people are absolutely useless for engagement.

    So then we move to motive.

    This isn’t just a council buying decorations. This is THE DEATH OF CHRISTMAS. This isn’t a policy disagreement. This is AN ATTACK ON YOUR VALUES. This isn’t some bureaucratic cock-up. This is THE GLOBALISTS.

    At this point, somewhere in outer-suburban Australia, a man is gripping the steering wheel of a Hilux so hard the leather is beginning to delaminate. Talkback radio is on. The indicator has been left on for 14 kilometres. Civilisation is apparently hanging by a thread.

    Then comes the really important bit: make it personal.

    They’re not changing a form. They’re coming for you. Your family. Your suburb. Your children. Your sausages. Your ute. Your right to stand in a Bunnings car park and explain monetary policy to strangers.

    Now we’re cooking.

    And finally: never solve the grievance.

    This is crucial, because if the problem actually gets fixed, what do we get angry about tomorrow?
    No Christmas tree? War on Christmas. Big Christmas tree? Waste of money. Immigration down? Not fast enough. Crime down? Fake statistics. Policy changed? Too little, too late.

    There is always another betrayal. Another emergency. Another thing “they” don’t want you to know. Another reason to remain permanently furious.

    That’s the business model.

    And no, this isn’t saying every grievance is fake. Governments do silly things. Councils make stupid decisions. Politicians lie. Institutions fail. People have every right to be annoyed.

    But if your local politician’s entire communication strategy is find a trigger, remove context, manufacture outrage, claim persecution, harvest engagement, you’re probably not being informed.

    You’re being farmed.

    Know the signs.

    Especially if the warning signs arrive in ALL CAPS from the front seat of a dual-cab ute.

  11. So Bolsonaro is not pursuing his feckless attempt to pursue annulling the election over the extended voting hours. Given his own campaign had argued for extending voting hours thinking it would help them, this seems like a smart move.

    The suggestion in William’s piece that the pollsters were guilty of herding to avoid showing Lula in the lead seems very likely. As Bolsonaro Sr overperformed his polls, and the general wrong headed idea also seen here that it’s always the right wing who overperform their polls, pollsters would have been shitscared of popping their heads up with a Lula lead, and then seeing Bolsonaro overperform the polls and win anyway.

    These pollsters need to start trusting themselves instead of assuming they’re going to be wrong.

    Except Freshwater. After the last election’s debacle they should definitely doubt their assumptions for the next cycle or two.

  12. Former FBI Director James Comey has been criminally charged by the Justice Department for the third time

    Reckon he regrets the circus he made of Hillary’s emails by now?

    The whole last 10 years are on that prick, the fact that Trump seems to have it in for him anyway is kind of laser guided karma.

    Never expect gratitude from Trump. He does not do gratitude.

  13. More than 2.75 million Floridians have already voted in the 2026 general election, with Democrats narrowly leading Republicans in early ballot returns despite the GOP’s registration advantage. State Division of Elections data posted October 25 shows turnout has surpassed 20% of Florida’s 13.7 million registered voters.
    Democrats have returned nearly 603,000 mail ballots, compared with roughly 500,000 from Republicans. In-person early voting has favored Republicans, with about 591,000 ballots cast versus nearly 494,000 by Democrats.
    Independent voters have submitted approximately 298,500 mail ballots and cast another 270,000 in person. Republicans hold a statewide registration advantage of about 1.5 million voters, and the early figures are likely to shift before Election Day.
    https://centralflorida.substack.com/p/florida-election-2026-early-voting-turnout-vaccine-mandate-lawsuit?open=false#%C2%A7florida-voting-turnout-tops-20-with-275m-ballots-cast-as-democrats-lead-republicans

  15. Arky, Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 1:18 pm:
    ———————–

    Yep. How’s Comey been feeling these last nearly two years, seeing his old chair filled by Kish Patel? Well done Comey, for violating normal FBI procedure to publicly acknowledge lines of investigation while they were still on foot – and turned out to be a nothingburger.

  17. The prime minister also chastised the ABC for its reporting on the grant and Mr Albanese’s undisclosed honorary membership to a club which he has a decades-long association with.

    “What it’s for — because the ABC were told information they chose not to publish appropriately — what it’s for, is at the moment because it’s on a flood area by the Cooks River, when it rains and there’s flooding, raw sewage goes into the Cooks River. That’s what it’s for, for fixing that,” Mr Albanese claimed regarding the grant.

    “And the ABC should do better.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-27/pm-claim-marrickville-golf-grant-sewage-fix-rejected/107313346

    Albo should apologise to the ABC as well.

  18. It’s a typically right wing thing to do to attack the ABC on a false premise.

    It’s also a typically right wing thing to do to suck up to Newscorp.

  19. Kirsdarke
    Sounds like victim blaming, I agree some people are never satisfied but I am hearing politicians dismissing all criticism as grievance when as the article says.

    “Governments do silly things. Councils make stupid decisions. Politicians lie. Institutions fail. People have every right to be annoyed.”

    There are people whose complaints are my side is out of government, we will see this in Victoria, when Coalition supporters will go quiet and Labor supporters will start picking on everything.

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