The Australian has a Victorian state Newspoll that credits the Coalition with a two-party lead over Labor of 55-45, out from 52-48 at a poll conducted in July, one week before Jacinta Allan was deposed. Labor is down four on the primary vote to 24%, with the Coalition up two to 33%, One Nation up one to 20% and the Greens up one to 14%. Ben Carroll’s debut personal ratings are 30% favourable and 58% unfavourable; Jess Wilson is up two to 49% and steady on 39%, and leads Carroll 48-34 on preferred premier, compared with her 51-32 lead over Allan in the last poll. The poll was conducted October 15 to 22 from a sample of 1017. Another Victorian state poll, from DemosAU, should be along in the coming days.
Further Victorian election news (and note also new posts below this one on a Queensland state poll and Brazil’s presidential election):
• Roy Morgan last week had region-level results of upper house voting intention drawn from polling of 2845 respondents conducted from July to September, suggesting an overall result of 12 seats for the Coalition, 10 for Labor, eight for the Greens and six for One Nation, with the remaining four in play. The results in 2022 were Labor 15, Coalition 14, Greens four and One Nation one, with various others accounting for six seats – the latter aspect assuredly not to be repeated this time due to the abolition of group voting tickets.
• As Labor sorts out its Legislative Council tickets, Left-faction incumbent Sonja Terpstra, who was elected from second on the North-Eastern Metropolitan ticket in 2022, announced a fortnight ago that she will not seek re-election. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported last week that the Right was weighing up which of the top positions out of Southern Metropolitan and North-Eastern Metropolitan to yield to an under-represented Left, to be determined by a national executive ballot if the relevant factional leaders could not reach agreement. The respective lead candidates for the two regions in 2022 were Shaun Leane, who is retiring, and John Berger, who is presumably under threat. The Left’s Ryan Batchelor, who was elected from second in Southern Metropolitan in 2022, had “covered his bases” by nominating in both regions. Kate Maxwell, an emergency department doctor at Latrobe Regional Hospital and the daughter of former Narracan MP Ian Maxfield, was to replace the retiring Gayle Tierney in Western Victoria, which presumably means taking second position behind incumbent Jacinta Ermacora.
• Marcus de Blonk Smith of The Australian reports Liberal sources saying the party will hold off preference negotiations with One Nation until after the close of nominations. An earlier report in The Australian by Anthony Galloway suggests this is because they may wish to withhold preferences from specific candidates with “unacceptable conduct or views”, and may keep simple in seats where it draws top of the ballot paper by recommending a donkey vote. The battle that long raged over whether to put One Nation last has seemingly been decided in favour of One Nation in recent years, though One Nation remained concerned enough to pressure Angus Taylor to sign a commitment to put Labor last when he appeared at the MAGA-adjacent CPAC conference earlier this month. The main beneficiary of such a decision would in fact be the Greens, who became competitive for the first time in Preston, Pascoe Vale and Footscray when the Liberals put Labor last in 2022.
• The Liberals have dumped Grant Hutchinson as their candidate for the eastern suburbs seat of Croydon, which will be vacated with the retirement of David Hodgett. The state executive moved on October 13 to replace Hutchinson with Toby Wooldridge, associate director of a geospatial analytics firm, son of Howard government Health Minister Michael Wooldridge and nephew of former state MP Mary Wooldridge. Jess Wilson told the media that “further details” had come to light concerning Hutchinson’s ongoing legal battle with current and former partners of his law firm, Hutchinson Legal. Liberal sources cited by Anthony Galloway of The Australian spoke of concern that Liberal internal affairs would be aired amid a dispute in which Hutchinson had been accused of “bullying and using the firm’s resources to further his political career”.
• Alex White of the Herald Sun reports Labor “insiders” say Frankston and Carrum are “likely to be lost”, but they remain hopeful Mordialloc might be retained and optimistic about Bentleigh. A Liberal source suggested the party considered the eastern suburbs seats of Box Hill, Ashwood, Glen Waverley and Bayswater were a higher priority.
Ghost of Whitlam
Legalise racism, sexism and bigotry in Victoria by repealing anti-discrimination laws.
==============
Good luck to Jess on getting the federal government to agree to remove the anti-discrimination laws.
If it’s indeed the case that the primary votes end up at Coalition 30%, Labor 24% and One Nation 22%, which is what my aggregate currently says, then I don’t think it’s fanciful. But they may very well not do – my feeling has always been that the campaign dynamic will favour the Coalition. Note also that whereas 30 of the 42 seats where the Coalition are favoured are “solid”, only two of One Nation’s 14 are. It would only take a drop of a point or two in their vote for that to be halved.
“Good luck to Jess on getting the federal government to agree to remove the anti-discrimination laws.”
Equal Opportunity Act 2010 is a Victorian state act and will be shredded and torn apart to enable the worst of society to once again discriminate lawfully.
“I travelled from central Melbourne to East Gippsland. Over 300 km of road.
The roads were more than good.”
Not sure about East Gippsland but I travel to South Gippsland a lot. Some of both the Princes Freeway and South Gippsland Highway have stretches that are not good and there have been some monster potholes that have needed urgent repair. Some parts of road that are only 10 – 12 years old are in dire need of major repairs.
I recently did a road trip through Western Victoria – parts of the Sunraysia Highway not far from Ballarat are downright dangerous and the Princes Highway between Portland and Port Fairy is not good either. East of Warrnambool they are fixing the road. The Western Highway west of Horsham was very good.
What I have noticed is that there now regular large potholes in the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne that have gone unfixed for months. The other road issue that the government has not address is that there are huge numbers of signs that need replacement. Many are unreadable and others have been vandalised and left for months and years.
Often with the potholes it seems the condition is much worse on one side of a road or a dual carriageway.
It cannot be said that the roads are “more than good”
Who is proposing repealing anti discrimination laws?
The IPA, who L-Plate Jess gets her orders from.
Victoriasays:
Monday, October 26, 2026 at 1:56 pm
bbph
I travelled from central Melbourne to East Gippsland. Over 300 km of road.
The roads were more than good.
_______________________
Yeah right.
Herald Sun 26/10
Victoria’s pothole crisis has struck again, this time on the Princes Highway southeast of Melbourne where 30 vehicles were damaged and left stranded on Monday morning — repeating a near-identical disaster in August.
Not even Scott could put a pro Labor spin on this poll – disasterous really for Ben Carroll, and Victorian Labor ranting day after day about the dangers of a Liberal/One Nation Government is starting to look desperate and silly.
Taylormade says:
Monday, October 26, 2026 at 4:09 pm
This is due to the same idiots we have in New South wales.
Moron.
Oh it looks like its old news.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-10/princes-freeway-pothole-damage-bunyip-drivers-damaged-cars/107016002
“”The highway has just fallen apart. I reckon there was probably 30 cars pulled over.””
Taylormade
We travelled on that exact road on Saturday.
It was perfectly fine then.
Of course, we had lots of rain yesterday which caused the cancellation of the moto GP, so I guess the road got damaged.
One thing that was very noticeable in my travels this week..
There are heaps of 4×4 ranger like vehicles on these roads.
These vehicles really don’t help.
There was actually nearly 30 mm of rain yesterday in that area
I recently spent weeks driving around rural NSW and Victoria: about a week in NSW and 2 weeks in Vic. There was no question in my mind that most of the main highways in Victoria are in considerably worse condition than those in NSW. However, the bitumen backroads in Victoria were generally in better condition than those in NSW.
I seemed to encounter roadwork gangs more frequently in NSW than Vic.
Of course, that was just my impression. Perhaps if I’d travelled in different parts of each state, I might have drawn a different conclusion. But boy did the people I met along the way in Victoria like to complain about the state of their roads! So the impression that the Victorian roads are bad is widespread, whatever the reality might be.
Has anyone tried this?
https://x.com/NoContextBrits/status/2114638783887151313?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Victoria says:
Monday, October 26, 2026 at 6:45 pm
I seen a shit tone of them (get it) in Western Sydney ….
Destroying all our local roads. With 1 person in it.
From the AFR today:
“Victorian Liberal staff and volunteers have been told not to get complacent about polls showing the Coalition is on track to win a ruling majority at next month’s election, with internal numbers suggesting the opposition could fall just one or two seats short, even after the expected big swings against Labor.”
“Director of analytics at RedBridge Group, Kos Samaras, a former Labor campaign director, said the current polling suggests the Coalition was on track to win 14 to 20 seats – and could win potentially “well over 20” – and to lose one.”
“Meanwhile, Labor MPs are becoming more pessimistic. One source said on condition of anonymity that insiders had lost hope that Premier Ben Carroll could win a historic fourth term outright.”
@William Bowe
Absolutely people try them. There one near me in Melbourne’s east. Doesn’t fill the pothole any faster.
The only good thing about the impending and likely (but not guaranteed) change of government in Victoria is how all reports of potholes and crime and corruption will disappear the minute the IPA, sorry, the LNP take control.
I will say this however, this is the election to lose. Whoever wins this one will be ousted at the next election in a landslide. We have entered an era of electoral volatility.
MABWM, exactly right, all those issues that the right wing media bangs on about constantly while Labors in power will instantly disappear if the LNP gets in just like we’re seeing in Queensland.
Three terms is long enough for most governments, they generally have run out of ideas, are infected with leeches and trying to hold on to power for powers sake. Victoria won’t die with a change of government, gives Labor a chance to regenerate while the Libs fuck some shit up for a term.
From Kos Samaras on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/kosmos.samaras/posts/pfbid02jeGRi4rUEfSaC5eCtUFfBZbzYWUCq8mYzJQirCXPQFz69BT1UGbbkJKB4Rnqyfozl
Well, shit. There really was no winning option I guess.
Victoriasays:
Monday, October 26, 2026 at 6:45 pm
One thing that was very noticeable in my travels this week..
There are heaps of 4×4 ranger like vehicles on these roads.
These vehicles really don’t help.
*************
The Ford Ranger is just under 1800kg in single cab format, about 2000kg in the most popular dual cab format. The best selling EV in Australia at the moment is the Tesla Model Y, it’s just over 2000kg. The second best selling is is the BYD Sealion 7, it comes in at 2250kg. And remember, the utes will typically run about 20 -30% lower tire pressure, have much deeper sidewalls, and have significantly lower ground pressure, so they would definitely be doing less damage to the roads than these EVs. Even the little Geely EX5 hatchback is 1800kg, so it’s actually heavier than my big ladder frame 4×4.
I’m not opposed to folks getting EVs, they are quite practical in the city. But batteries are very, very heavy. And these debates are a bit pointless, from memory a single semi trailer does between a 1000 to 10 000 as much damage to a road as a car per passage, as the relationship between weight and damage is exponential. Damage to roads us nearly always due to trucks.
Holy shit, the Zeekr 7x which I’ve recently been seeing a lot of is 2500kg. That enormous big Landcruiser troop carrier that hit Helen Haines is 2150kg.
I’ve not been able to remember a candidate to become a Premier at a State election so under exposed as the Liberal Victorian leader Jess Wilson.
It’s become very unlikely Ms.Wilson will not become Premier but a more robust election campaign may have some impact on Ms. Wilson’s image.
The under exposure appears to be a deliberate strategy and it may well be the correct one.
This election could be the crucial pivotal point for the future of the Liberal Party in its fightback against the ON phonomema.
PHON has created many “potholes” along the road of a Liberal recovery.
Jess Wilson had better make the elimination of all sorts of Victorian “potholes”, the first and most important priority if successful at the election.
Both for the sake of her transition to leadership and to ensure a Liberal revival.
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:20 pm
From Kos Samaras on Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/kosmos.samaras/posts/pfbid02jeGRi4rUEfSaC5eCtUFfBZbzYWUCq8mYzJQirCXPQFz69BT1UGbbkJKB4Rnqyfozl
What the latest Victorian Newspoll numbers mean in seats, based on a model that relies on an MRP we compiled earlier this year.
————————–
The federal MRPs were bin worthy the likes of Redbridge, the opinion polling companies do not help themselves by making assumptions with no electoral evidence to back the claim.
Jess Wilson deserves to lose her seat, if the lib/nats combined primary vote drops during the victorian state election campaign.
It’s definitely feeling like a change election but I’d be surprised if an election where so many are saying both majors are the problem ends up with only 4 seats going to someone else
The campaign will be fascinating
This would be interesting
Wonder what the lib /nats propaganda media units , would do if preferences from one nation , helped Labor to retain seats for majority. Would all of a sudden the lib/nats propaganda media units turn on one nation ?
Concern about the potholes, like that about crime and state debt, will evaporate once the Coalition is safely in office.
Darcysays:
Monday, October 26, 2026 at 9:30 pm
@William Bowe
Absolutely people try them. There one near me in Melbourne’s east. Doesn’t fill the pothole any faster.
_______________________
There was a penis outlining a big pot hole on the Portland – Heywood Road a couple of years ago. It did the rounds on the Facebook groups and local newspaper.
It became a traffic hazard. People were driving out to see it and take photos. Pulling up on the side of the road whilst the big B’Doubles thundered past.
It was more dangerous than the pothole.
It got fixed pretty quick.
Potholes has been another cleverly promoted issue which will put pressure on whatever party/parties form government after the election.
Some of the pothole problem will be deflected with allocations to local government.
Some of the pothole problem will with dealt with by allocating more money to the relevant Victorian state departments.
( bugger the noise about the budget)
And the “blame the previous government” will get a run.
Seadog
No, Victoria won’t die. But how many trans people will? I’ve been publicly assaulted by strangers twice even under the woke govt.