Israeli election live

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEDT Wednesday for today’s Israeli election. From previous experience, it will take all day Wednesday to count most of the votes. There will be further counting over the next seven days before the result is finalized.

Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect a total of 120 MPs. At the 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition of Likud (32 seats), Religious Zionists (14), Shas (11) and UTJ (seven) won a combined 64 seats, above the 61 needed for a majority.

Only polls for the right-wing Channel 14 continue to show a majority for the current governing coalition, with all other recent polls giving the government about 50 seats. There are two Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, which have a combined 13–15 seats in the polls. This is a problem for formation of a non-Netanyahu government, as the leaders of the main Jewish parties have vowed not to form government with Arab support. Publication of polls has been banned since last Friday.

While Netanyahu is likely to lose, this October 18 article in The Guardian said that Israel is becoming more right-wing. While young people in other countries are more left-wing than older people, it’s the reverse in Israel. The only left-wing Jewish party is the Democrats, a merger of Labor and Meretz.

Labor used to form governments in Israel. They won 44 seats on 34.7% of the vote in 1992, but have plummeted since, winning just four seats on 3.7% in 2022. Meretz was to the left of Labor, but fell below the 3.25% threshold in 2022. In current polls, the Democrats are winning 8–10 seats.

Other elections: the US, Serbia and the Czech Republic

The US midterm elections are next Tuesday, with polls closing from late Wednesday morning AEDT. I wrote for The Conversation on Monday that there hasn’t been much change in Nate Silver’s midterm election forecast during October. Democrats have a 75% chance to gain control of the Senate and a 95% chance in the House of Representatives. They lead Republicans in the generic ballot by 9.5 points. Donald Trump’s net approval is -23.3.

Serbia elects its 250 MPs by national proportional representation with a 3% threshold that is waived for ethnic minority parties. With 97.6% reporting for Sunday’s election, the new Student List won 53.4% of the vote and 140 seats, while the governing populist right Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won 39.7% and 103 seats (down 26 since the December 2023 election), with no other party clearing the threshold. The remaining seats went to ethnic minority parties. This ended the SNS’ period of government that had lasted since 2012. The Czech Senate has 81 members, with 27 up for election every two years using single-member electorates with a two-round system. At October 9—10 and 16—17 elections, the governing populist right ANO 2011 won zero seats (down one), the first time a government has not won a seat. The centre-left Mayors and Independents won nine seats (down one) and two conservative parties a combined ten seats (up two). Overall, the two conservative parties combined hold 32 of the 81 seats, Mayors and Independents 14 and ANO 11.