DemosAU has published one of its quarterly multilevel regression and post-stratification polls for Capital Brief, which estimates results at seat level based on demographic and geographic modelling and a large-sample survey. It rates Labor the more likely winner in 84 seats, although its randomised simulations of 20,000 potential scenarios suggests this flatters them, the probable range of outcomes being from 73 to 85. This would nonetheless seem encouraging for Labor given the poll credits them with only 27% of the primary vote.
By contrast, One Nation’s 26% vote gets them rated favourites in only 24 seats (range 22 to 35), whereas the Coalition’s 22% gets them 34 (range 25 to 44). The Greens are credited with 13% of the vote but no seats, a Liberal National win being rated the most likely outcome in their remaining seat of Ryan, although this is projected as a close three-way result. The pollster’s full release features primary vote, two-candidate preferred and win probability estimates for every seat. The survey was conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9740.
The latest result from a Roy Morgan series that has moved from weekly to fortnightly has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one-and-a-half to 24%, the Coalition down one to 21.5% and the Greens unchanged on 15%. Labor holds two-party leads of 53-47 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52.5-47.5; 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences; and 54.5-45.5 on a respondent-allocated measure against One Nation, out from 53.5-46.5. The pollster’s full report features primary vote breakdowns by state. The poll was conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2655.
Sorry, to clarify I think its reasonable that he take leave, not resign from his position. I agree that an expectation of resignation on receipt of a contested allegation is not needed or appropriate.
Charlie:
Gotcha, fair enough!
3 possible poltical reasons the story possibly came to a head now.
1. Steele-John did not vote for Shoebridge and this is payback
2. Steele-John did vote for Shoebridge and this is payback
3. Shoebridge has some ethics and is cleaning house which should have been done years ago.
We’ll see.
From a Greens insider close to me: He’s been doing that for years btw. Everyone turned a blind eye because of his disability.
Circuit breaker activated for South Korea’s KOSPI stock index after it plunges by 8%.
Carlton defender Lachie Cowan is set to receive a two-match suspension for Saturday night’s wild night which saw him taken to hospital. The Herald Sun understands the AFL will announce a two-match ban for the 21-year-old who suffered a seizure and required emergency medical assistance after a house party at teammate Will Hayward’s house in South Yarra. Hayward, who denied any drug use before hitting his head in the shower, is expected to dodge a sanction after hosting a house party for friends at the weekend.
Circuit breakers are communist bs
@Mostly Interested:
or, you know, it’s not a political hitjob and it’s
4. This is the timing when the women involved got up the courage to send a letter and got the letter together. It’s vaguely possible the impetus was the leadership change (for example, if Shoebridge was seen as more likely to take action than Waters, though this seems hard to believe) but much more likely it’s completely independent. I would say that as a group letter involving a number of different women and which others will probably have been invited to join, this isn’t something that would have been put together quickly and more than likely would have been in the works since long before Shoebridge became leader.
The one thing it isn’t is 3, since the letter was sent to Shoebridge, he didn’t initiate this.
Besides, he’s too busy threatening Ukrainian-Australians isn’t he?
Mostly Interestedsays:
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 3:12 pm
Shoebridge has some ethics and is cleaning house which should have been done years ago.
*********
This would seem a mite unlikely.
FUBAR
Her publishers have withdrawn her books from sale due to fear of legal action against them. That’s close enough, IMO.
I wasn’t aware of it. It doesn’t surprise me: Palestine Action are the dregs.
The point of my post wasn’t so much to decry the withdraw of Rooney’s books from sale, but more to express dismay that a writer of her ability would tie herself publicly to such a dreadful outfit.
4. Shoebridge is using 3 as an excuse but really just finds him irritating.
Asha – that site you are thinking of was actually “True News Weekly” (now “True News Weekly”) rather than Independent Australia, and its pretty dodgy so I won’t be sharing the old links, but yes in 2017 it was the first and only place to do a story on what was allegedly an open secret in the WA Greens about the Senator. The site is a one man band political news/gossip thing, like a few others around the place.
meher baba says:
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 3:29 pm
They could still give the books away for free. They are not banned.
Arky, I recognise there are any number of possibilities which are not poltical in nature. I was just gaming that aspect out.
You’re dancing on a pinhead there FUBAR. If you could be subject to legal action for distributing the books, it wouldn’t matter if they were sold or given away
To clarify: Shoebridge reckons that the Ukrainians can leave it to the Russians to burn their bridges for them. Shoebridge reckons that depriving Ukraine of Australian weapons is horrorsho for his pal Putin because it shows that his Party of Peace sticks with its principles – except when it come to voting with Hanson for more private health insurance subsidies.
https://web.archive.org/web/20180727182524/https://truecrimenewsweekly.com/exclusive-greens-likened-to-catholic-church-as-star-incoming-senator-jordon-steele-john-accused-of-persistent-sexual-harassment/
I assume that FIGJAM will order that the Greens will be applying their principles for ICAC to the J S-J investigation. All interrogations must be held open to the public.
Hoe many exes with an axe to grind does J S-J actually have?
“Beatie did so well in Qld because half the state thought Wally Lewis was premier.”
@Asha
Peter Beattie got the building the new stadium (Suncorp stadium) decision right, sticking with tradition building it at Lane Park. The then National/Liberal parties wanted to screw it all up building it at the old Brisbane show grounds. Even the QRL thought this was stupid to the point asking rugby league supporters to vote Labor at 2001 Queensland state election. They didn’t need to, Beattie bolted through that election with 66 seats. And the National party never recovered from that election being shuffled out of the Gold Coast which prompted Lawrence Springborg to push ahead with a merger.
I see that Shoebridge has put a private members Bill into the Senate calling on the Albanese Government to stop sending weapons and munitions to Ukraine. In an explatory note Shoebridge slammed Albanese for being complicit in the murder of Russian children.
@Ven
Susan Collins wouldn’t be out of place in One Nation, maybe she would sit on the centre-right of ON.
On the other hand maybe being anti-abortion, pro-gun, anti-healthcare and pro-corruption passes for moderate in the USA.
subgeometer
Actually, FUBAR might have a point. I made the mistake of taking at face value a MSM report, which said that she and her publisher faced prosecution if the books continued to be sold.
Having now looked at a number of news reports, I find that some are suggesting that her books could still possibly be sold in the UK, but that no royalties on them would be payable to her for fear that she might pass some of them onto Palestine Action. So it would appear possibly to be a voluntary decision to withdraw the books on her part and on the part of her publisher.
Perhaps it will all become clearer when the British Government issues some sort of a statement on the matter.
The Greens women are lucky. Only three men in the Senate… but such men!
MB
fair enough
@subgeometer:
It would because the legal issue is that, due to Rooney’s stated intention to donate royalties to Palestine Action, the publisher is concerned that the sale of the books could be deemed to be funding terrorism.
If they give the books away there’s no money and no funding terrorism.
For my part I’m wondering if they had laws like this in the IRA days. But I guess back then it would have been rare to find an author openly saying something like “the money from my book will go to the IRA” even if they were a sympathiser.
I should know not to comment on legal matters
I think South Australia is due for another poll very soon since DemosAU is starting back up their quarterly state polls beginning with Victoria.
Had not heard the stuff about the injury to the police officer by the Palestine Action member. But looking up reports about it, its hard to reconcile the actions of one person in those circumstances, with their designation as a terrorist group?? But who trusts the news these days. 🙁 Speaking of which….
Saw a post on Bluesky that referenced a report from a national security think tank in Israel and thought …… nah ….. this is fringe stuff. So, googled “Israels foremost natsec” and quickly found this:
https://www.inss.org.il/publication/new-concept/
From this mob at Tel Aviv University.
https://www.inss.org.il/history/
Which all seems somewhat less than fringe to me. 🙁
For the “quiet part out loud” …… Fwark thats disturbing stuff. 🙁
Corner got 8 years for the sledgehammer hits.
From the guardian blog – https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/oct/15/anthony-albanese-labor-pauline-hanson-monoculture-victorian-election-coalition-angus-taylor-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-6ad0580f8f080d5da2f479ca#block-6ad0580f8f080d5da2f479ca
Lol did anyone ask him about SHY’s interview the other day? In the light of the anti-Ukraine motion he’s just proposed. The US and Russia becoming allies is going to do his head in, IMO
And not just him. The cognitive dissonance must something else for eg Marles as well
Subgeo I think BW might have imagined that bit
Leroy:
Ah, yes, right you are.
imacca
It’s not unusual for politically motivated, violent attacks on private property to be deemed “terrorism.” I’ll flirt with Godwin’s Law and suggest that the attacks on Jewish businesses, synagogues, etc on Kristallnacht were a form of terrorism.
imacca
As sketched out in the link, this post Oct 7 conceptualisation of Israeli national identity is a death wish, framing the other 99.9% of humanity as dupes and enemies to be tricked and attacked. I don’t see how that ends well
The Greens are well on the way to becoming a fully fledged political party when they start getting harassment allegations aired publicly.
Well done, Greens.
Mostly Interested says:
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 3:12 pm
3 possible poltical reasons the story possibly came to a head now.
1. Steele-John did not vote for Shoebridge and this is payback
2. Steele-John did vote for Shoebridge and this is payback
3. Shoebridge has some ethics and is cleaning house which should have been done years ago.
We’ll see.
===============
Acute analysis M.I., & yes I’m sure too it will be one of these three scenarios.
Given the allegations date back to 2017, it’s most likely the previous leadership would’ve known about it all. The rumour mill is amazing with this type of thing. Very unlikely it’s come from the previous leadership (as payback) as it would invite the obvious blowback question of “you lot sat on your hands and did nothing”. Can probably strike out scenario No.2
Jordan Steele-John stood as the Deputy leader in the recent spill, and amassed 2 votes. Similar number to Sen.Faruqi. Just saying.
So, is it payback or ethics.
There’s not much ethics in politics, so my rough conclusion is it’s scenario No.1.
The motivation on Sen Shoebridges behalf?
Answer – Replace him with someone from the hard left.
Why?
Answer – To solidify the numbers for the Boss (ie: Shoebridge)
{Recent Example: Albo shoehorned Ashvini Ambihaipahar into a seat in Sydney a couple of years ago)
How is this done?
Answer – The old fashioned way. If you resign, we can make these allegations disappear and we can all move on. Alternatively, the Boss can drag these allegations out for ages, claiming the “moral high” ground in the process.
Me thinks a hard-left takeover of the Greens is underway!
Omar
lol. I should have known
My bad… Sorry.
meher baba posted
I don’t get it either meher as I’ve said here on previous occasions. It IS an obsession and it seems to be getting worse rather than better.
Nadia, since when isn’t JSJ part of the hard left in the greens. Maybe its a bit like the arguments between the Peoples Front of Judea and the Judean Peoples Front
subgeo
I thought BW was joking?
President Trump’s overall approval rating hit a record low for either of his terms, according to a new Fox News survey amid growing voter dissatisfaction with his handling of key issues.
The Fox News poll found 36 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s overall handling of the presidency, while 64 percent disapproved.
The decline, Fox News noted, was most notable among likely voters aged 45 and under, people with an annual household income below $50,000, non-White voters and people without a college degree.
@The Wombat:
What do you think is likely –
1. That they no longer want to do the crazy.
or
2. That they’ve learned to hide the crazy from their web page where the wrong people will see it and make an issue of it, and just talk about it in Facebook chats with their supporters instead.
Mostly Interested @ #903 Thursday, October 15th, 2026 – 3:12 pm
4. The allegations are true and the senator is a creep.
A vigil for the dead for some. ‘Subhuman ghouls’ to Murdoch’s goons
https://michaelwest.com.au/a-vigil-for-the-dead-for-some-subhuman-ghouls-to-murdochs-goons/
“Backed by their cheerleader-in-chief, Chris Minns, when you thought Murdoch writers couldn’t stoop any lower, they did. Andrew Brown was there.
On October 7, the Daily Telegraph told Sydney that “subhuman ghouls” were gathering again to celebrate a slaughter of innocents. I was at that gathering. It was a candlelight vigil at Town Hall, organised by Jews Against the Occupation ’48. About 200 people came, mostly older Australians.
They prayed for the Jewish and Palestinian dead.”
Leaving aside my thoughts on modern Israel, really, honestly, the obsession is just old fashioned anti-semetism. It’s just such a compelling concept, people just love it. It’s a conspiracy that’s got everything to draw you down the rabbit hole. The stuff my son see in his social feed is “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion” level stuff.
Here’s the letter re JSJ:
https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/hub/media/tearout-excerpt/62096/tearout_qvjymv0a.pdf
In attacking Ukraine and forcing it to try and defend itself in any way possible, I would say it is Putin who is complicit in sacrificing Russian children (not to mention half a million or so of his own troops) not those who are trying to assist Ukraine.