DemosAU has published one of its quarterly multilevel regression and post-stratification polls for Capital Brief, which estimates results at seat level based on demographic and geographic modelling and a large-sample survey. It rates Labor the more likely winner in 84 seats, although its randomised simulations of 20,000 potential scenarios suggests this flatters them, the probable range of outcomes being from 73 to 85. This would nonetheless seem encouraging for Labor given the poll credits them with only 27% of the primary vote.
By contrast, One Nation’s 26% vote gets them rated favourites in only 24 seats (range 22 to 35), whereas the Coalition’s 22% gets them 34 (range 25 to 44). The Greens are credited with 13% of the vote but no seats, a Liberal National win being rated the most likely outcome in their remaining seat of Ryan, although this is projected as a close three-way result. The pollster’s full release features primary vote, two-candidate preferred and win probability estimates for every seat. The survey was conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9740.
The latest result from a Roy Morgan series that has moved from weekly to fortnightly has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one-and-a-half to 24%, the Coalition down one to 21.5% and the Greens unchanged on 15%. Labor holds two-party leads of 53-47 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52.5-47.5; 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences; and 54.5-45.5 on a respondent-allocated measure against One Nation, out from 53.5-46.5. The pollster’s full report features primary vote breakdowns by state. The poll was conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2655.
“The Ukrainian ambassador to Australia says he will meet the Greens leader, David Shoebridge, after Shoebridge urged the government against sending Ukraine military aid.
Vasyl Myroshnychenko said he had met Shoebridge many times and would encourage him to reconsider his view. He told the ABC:
I kind of understand and agree with (what) the Greens said, that probably militarism is a curse on modern society. I wish we would have lived in a very peaceful time and country where our borders are intact, our sovereignty is protected by international law. Unfortunately, it’s not the case for us.
Myroshnychenko said he understood other Greens members like Sarah Hanson-Young disagreed with Shoebridge.
I’ve seen a lot of pushback from the members of the party. They were surprised by this position. So I think it should be revisited.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/oct/15/anthony-albanese-labor-pauline-hanson-monoculture-victorian-election-coalition-angus-taylor-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-6ad069d28f08f6efd3e7d2c2#block-6ad069d28f08f6efd3e7d2c2
Confessionssays:
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 5:01 pm
4. The allegations are true and the senator is a creep.
*****
I really want to believe the story. But he’s been in office for very close to a decade. I just struggle to believe he’d have lasted 9 years in The Greens if he’s a creep. I don’t think you’d last 9 seconds in the Greens unless you were fairly meticulous with your language towards women.
I don’t know, I’m very suspicious of the context. And there’s also the bit where David Shoebridge makes me want to vomit.
subgeometer says:
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 3:36 pm
The issue is not the books.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10/14/sally-rooney-books-pulled-from-uk-shelves-palestine-action/
“Butler won’t rule out pensioner exemptions for private health cuts”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/oct/15/anthony-albanese-labor-pauline-hanson-monoculture-victorian-election-coalition-angus-taylor-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-6ad060918f08f6efd3e7d27f#block-6ad060918f08f6efd3e7d27f
The Wombat:
Jeremy Buckinham had been a Greens MP for roughly the same length of time as JSJ before resigning due to allegations of sexual assault.
I think the senator standing down is the sensible approach while the accusations can be properly investigated.
The Greens are such a model of transparency how could anything be hidden?
Kos Samaras – The thirty years that were never normal
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/10/the-thirty-years-that-were-never-normal/
“The post-war decades created an extraordinary period of rising wages, affordable homes and economic security. Those conditions are gone. Politics must stop promising their return and start deciding how prosperity is shared in a slower-growth world.
:::
The established parties have spent 40 years selling the managed version. Every election they promise that home ownership will recover, that wages will outrun prices, that the next generation will do better than the last. They speak as if 1965 were a destination that better management could reach. Every term the numbers get a little worse and the delusion continues.
Voters notice and spot this delusion from a mile away. They may not know the statistics. They know their adult children are still in the spare room. They know the house they bought for three times their income now sells for eight. They know they did what their parents did and got less for it.
This is the slow realisation running underneath every election in the West. It does not arrive as an idea, a myth or a misinformed post online. It arrives as a feeling that someone has broken a promise. The gap between what was promised and what was lived is where trust in the major parties has gone to die.”
Damn, Kos writes well.
Trump Is Teaching America the Most Terrifying Lesson Every Dictator Knows
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/10/14/800112141/community/trump-is-teaching-america-the-most-terrifying-lesson-every-dictator-knows/
I apologise to anyone who believed in good faith my jape about Shoebridge slamming Albanese for being complicit in the murder of Russian chikdren.
Trouble at Mill:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jordon-steele-john-takes-leave-after-letter-raises-allegations-of-inappropriate-comments-to-women-20261015-p614vu.html
At first blush this saga appears to resonate strongly with the 2018 episode with the NSW Parliamentary Greens involved in factional warfare. It even has some of the same ‘players’ – and the same hard left faction running the show trial. A recap:
“In late 2018, the NSW Greens factionally imploded over sexual harassment and inappropriate behavior allegations leveled against their own Upper House MP, Jeremy Buckingham.
The situation culminated in November 2018 when Greens MP Jenny Leong used parliamentary privilege to deliver an extraordinary speech in the NSW Parliament, calling Buckingham’s actions an “act of sexual violence” and demanding his immediate resignation.
The primary sequence of events and outcomes of the scandal included:
The Core Allegation
The controversy stemmed from a formal complaint made by former Greens staffer Ella Buckland. She alleged that during a dark walk home in Newtown in 2011, Buckingham had touched her inappropriately and kissed her neck. Buckingham strenuously denied the allegations, calling them part of a factional smear campaign designed to destroy his career.
The Independent Investigation
The Greens commissioned an outside firm, Workdynamic Australia, to investigate. Before the final report was formally released by the party, Buckingham pre-emptively announced he had been “cleared”. The investigation eventually concluded that there was insufficient evidence to legally substantiate the complaint.
The Internal Party Revolt
Despite the lack of adverse findings, a deep fracture opened within the party:
• The Calls to Resign: Following Jenny Leong’s speech in parliament, federal Greens leader Richard Di Natale, NSW Senator Mehreen Faruqi, and former Senator Lee Rhiannon publicly turned on Buckingham, demanding he step aside or withdraw from the upcoming election ticket.
• The Backlash & Defenders: Other Greens MPs openly defended Buckingham. MLC Cate Faehrmann publicly accused party members of weaponizing the sexual harassment complaint for internal factional warfare. Ballina MP Tamara Smith sent a text message apologizing to Buckingham, calling the public parliamentary attacks against him “claptrap”.
The Outcome
The intense infighting made Buckingham’s position within the party untenable. On December 19, 2018, Buckingham officially quit the NSW Greens. Upon leaving, he slammed the party as a “toxic, extreme-left basket case” and later successfully ran for the NSW upper house as an independent/alternative minor party.”
_____
In 2018, Jenny Leong assumed the role of Andrey Vyshinsky in State Parliament. I only wonder who the Great Comrade designate that role in the Senate this year?