Federal polls: DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The latest quarterly MRP exercise from DemosAU suggests Labor could retain a majority from a very modest share of the primary vote — which is just as well for them.

DemosAU has published one of its quarterly multilevel regression and post-stratification polls for Capital Brief, which estimates results at seat level based on demographic and geographic modelling and a large-sample survey. It rates Labor the more likely winner in 84 seats, although its randomised simulations of 20,000 potential scenarios suggests this flatters them, the probable range of outcomes being from 73 to 85. This would nonetheless seem encouraging for Labor given the poll credits them with only 27% of the primary vote.

By contrast, One Nation’s 26% vote gets them rated favourites in only 24 seats (range 22 to 35), whereas the Coalition’s 22% gets them 34 (range 25 to 44). The Greens are credited with 13% of the vote but no seats, a Liberal National win being rated the most likely outcome in their remaining seat of Ryan, although this is projected as a close three-way result. The pollster’s full release features primary vote, two-candidate preferred and win probability estimates for every seat. The survey was conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9740.

The latest result from a Roy Morgan series that has moved from weekly to fortnightly has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one-and-a-half to 24%, the Coalition down one to 21.5% and the Greens unchanged on 15%. Labor holds two-party leads of 53-47 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52.5-47.5; 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences; and 54.5-45.5 on a respondent-allocated measure against One Nation, out from 53.5-46.5. The pollster’s full report features primary vote breakdowns by state. The poll was conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2655.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

978 thoughts on “Federal polls: DemosAU and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. “The Ukrainian ambassador to Australia says he will meet the Greens leader, David Shoebridge, after Shoebridge urged the government against sending Ukraine military aid.

    Vasyl Myroshnychenko said he had met Shoebridge many times and would encourage him to reconsider his view. He told the ABC:

    I kind of understand and agree with (what) the Greens said, that probably militarism is a curse on modern society. I wish we would have lived in a very peaceful time and country where our borders are intact, our sovereignty is protected by international law. Unfortunately, it’s not the case for us.

    Myroshnychenko said he understood other Greens members like Sarah Hanson-Young disagreed with Shoebridge.

    I’ve seen a lot of pushback from the members of the party. They were surprised by this position. So I think it should be revisited.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/oct/15/anthony-albanese-labor-pauline-hanson-monoculture-victorian-election-coalition-angus-taylor-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-6ad069d28f08f6efd3e7d2c2#block-6ad069d28f08f6efd3e7d2c2

  2. Confessionssays:
    Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 5:01 pm

    4. The allegations are true and the senator is a creep.

    *****

    I really want to believe the story. But he’s been in office for very close to a decade. I just struggle to believe he’d have lasted 9 years in The Greens if he’s a creep. I don’t think you’d last 9 seconds in the Greens unless you were fairly meticulous with your language towards women.

    I don’t know, I’m very suspicious of the context. And there’s also the bit where David Shoebridge makes me want to vomit.

  5. The Wombat:

    Jeremy Buckinham had been a Greens MP for roughly the same length of time as JSJ before resigning due to allegations of sexual assault.

    I think the senator standing down is the sensible approach while the accusations can be properly investigated.

  7. Kos Samaras – The thirty years that were never normal

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/10/the-thirty-years-that-were-never-normal/

    “The post-war decades created an extraordinary period of rising wages, affordable homes and economic security. Those conditions are gone. Politics must stop promising their return and start deciding how prosperity is shared in a slower-growth world.
    :::
    The established parties have spent 40 years selling the managed version. Every election they promise that home ownership will recover, that wages will outrun prices, that the next generation will do better than the last. They speak as if 1965 were a destination that better management could reach. Every term the numbers get a little worse and the delusion continues.

    Voters notice and spot this delusion from a mile away. They may not know the statistics. They know their adult children are still in the spare room. They know the house they bought for three times their income now sells for eight. They know they did what their parents did and got less for it.

    This is the slow realisation running underneath every election in the West. It does not arrive as an idea, a myth or a misinformed post online. It arrives as a feeling that someone has broken a promise. The gap between what was promised and what was lived is where trust in the major parties has gone to die.”

  9. Trump Is Teaching America the Most Terrifying Lesson Every Dictator Knows

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/10/14/800112141/community/trump-is-teaching-america-the-most-terrifying-lesson-every-dictator-knows/

    When we think of strongman dictatorships we often imagine tanks in the streets, but those usually come in the later stages of repression (think Tienanmen Square) and often are never even needed (think today’s Russia). Instead, as every dictator on Earth can tell you, you don’t have to silence the entire country; all you have to do is shut up a few strategically-selected people visibly and publicly enough and the rest of the country will get the message and back away.

    That’s the message of this week’s raid on Ilhan Omar’s home, and so many other atrocities committed by Trump’s eager fascist lickspittles over the past 21 months. He and his advisors are simply repeating a long and well-trod history.

    On the morning of March 14, 1757, King George II ordered Admiral John Byng executed by firing squad on the quarterdeck of the HMS Monarch in Portsmouth harbor. His crime? He’d just lost a battle off the coast of Minorca. Two years later, Voltaire wrote the event into his novella Candide, having the hero of his story watch the execution from the deck of a nearby ship. When a sailor standing with him asks why Byng was killed, his hero replied:

    “In this country, it is good to kill an admiral from time to time, to encourage the others. Pour encourager les autres.”

    The phrase has been foundational to the rise of every tyrant in history since. Pick a few people, make an example of them, and the fear will spread across the population in a way that’s just as effective as an army of secret police.

    The genius, as Voltaire pointed out, is that it costs almost nothing yet, when done right, can have enormous impact on public behavior.

    Trump has been running this play since the day he took office, and this week he ran it again, this time on a member of Congress just three weeks before an election.

    Reports suggest that Homeland Security Investigations — a division of ICE — raided Ilhan Omar’s house in Washington looking for paperwork her late father filled out when she was a child refugee. She has not been charged with a crime and, as is so common, ICE isn’t explaining what they’re up to here.

    As former Homeland Security Chief of Staff Miles Taylor told me on my radio/TV program when Trump went after him, Comey, and others, the raid itself is the punishment.

    To destroy a person financially, to traumatize them emotionally, and to scare the hell out of their colleagues in a way that will make them shut up you don’t need a conviction. Hell, you don’t even need a trial. Just a subpoena, a lawyer letter filled with threats, or a raid can lead to hundreds of thousands in lawyer bills and months of sleepless nights.

    This has now — like in Russia — become standard operating practice. And it reaches all the way down to a single mother of two in New Jersey; Joanne Carducci, who posts as JoJoFromJerz on Substack, revealed last month that lawyers for the president and first lady spent the first half of this year sending her letters demanding a retraction, an apology, and money over her online criticism of Melania Trump. She bravely describes in detail how threats left her worrying about her children, her home, and her livelihood.

    And that’s one of the most low-profile of the cases; we never would have known if she hadn’t spoken up. How many other authors and commentators have been similarly threatened? Odds are 99% will never write about it, particularly if the threats also contain demands for confidentiality like hers apparently did.

    There are many more cases like this

  10. I apologise to anyone who believed in good faith my jape about Shoebridge slamming Albanese for being complicit in the murder of Russian chikdren.

  11. Trouble at Mill:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jordon-steele-john-takes-leave-after-letter-raises-allegations-of-inappropriate-comments-to-women-20261015-p614vu.html

    At first blush this saga appears to resonate strongly with the 2018 episode with the NSW Parliamentary Greens involved in factional warfare. It even has some of the same ‘players’ – and the same hard left faction running the show trial. A recap:

    “In late 2018, the NSW Greens factionally imploded over sexual harassment and inappropriate behavior allegations leveled against their own Upper House MP, Jeremy Buckingham.

    The situation culminated in November 2018 when Greens MP Jenny Leong used parliamentary privilege to deliver an extraordinary speech in the NSW Parliament, calling Buckingham’s actions an “act of sexual violence” and demanding his immediate resignation.

    The primary sequence of events and outcomes of the scandal included:

    The Core Allegation

    The controversy stemmed from a formal complaint made by former Greens staffer Ella Buckland. She alleged that during a dark walk home in Newtown in 2011, Buckingham had touched her inappropriately and kissed her neck. Buckingham strenuously denied the allegations, calling them part of a factional smear campaign designed to destroy his career.

    The Independent Investigation

    The Greens commissioned an outside firm, Workdynamic Australia, to investigate. Before the final report was formally released by the party, Buckingham pre-emptively announced he had been “cleared”. The investigation eventually concluded that there was insufficient evidence to legally substantiate the complaint.

    The Internal Party Revolt

    Despite the lack of adverse findings, a deep fracture opened within the party:

    • The Calls to Resign: Following Jenny Leong’s speech in parliament, federal Greens leader Richard Di Natale, NSW Senator Mehreen Faruqi, and former Senator Lee Rhiannon publicly turned on Buckingham, demanding he step aside or withdraw from the upcoming election ticket.

    • The Backlash & Defenders: Other Greens MPs openly defended Buckingham. MLC Cate Faehrmann publicly accused party members of weaponizing the sexual harassment complaint for internal factional warfare. Ballina MP Tamara Smith sent a text message apologizing to Buckingham, calling the public parliamentary attacks against him “claptrap”.

    The Outcome

    The intense infighting made Buckingham’s position within the party untenable. On December 19, 2018, Buckingham officially quit the NSW Greens. Upon leaving, he slammed the party as a “toxic, extreme-left basket case” and later successfully ran for the NSW upper house as an independent/alternative minor party.”

    _____

    In 2018, Jenny Leong assumed the role of Andrey Vyshinsky in State Parliament. I only wonder who the Great Comrade designate that role in the Senate this year?

    Edited to pose this question to Pegarex:

    Given that both of you have shown great devotion and admiration to both The Great Comrade AND J S-J, who do you think needs to be ‘managed out’ he?

    Supplementary question/challenge to Pegarex: we all know that Albo is to blame (as he is for everything), but your challenged is to ‘join the dots’ between the guilty party within the Greens Political Party (whoever that might be) AND Albo within six moves.

  22. https://www.news24.com.au/politics/australian-politics/greens-senator-jordon-steelejohn-takes-leave-from-partyroom-after-allegations-of-inappropriate-comments-to-women/news-story/8758507b9fbf83801bc68c36002d5f3f

    Greens are now leaking to News24 of all places.

    What a pile on.

    JSJ (in his defence) is now claiming he’s a victim of domestic violence – which doesn’t appear to have much relevence to the allegations.

    Sympathy card out now.
    Minimal support from colleagues.
    Can’t be long before he goes.

  24. Peg
    Do you have any inside goss on how many women signed the letter and how many women, if any, refused to sign the letter for fear of repercussions?

  25. Nope, just Rhiannon. The Soviets back. Everything smells like a good old fashioned Stalinist purge, complete with show trial. We’re just missing the TT-33 to the back of the head.

  26. Is he claiming that he is a DV victim or the victim of malicious fake DV claims leading to a DVO against him?

    He is quite clear that he is totally innocent.

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