DemosAU has published one of its quarterly multilevel regression and post-stratification polls for Capital Brief, which estimates results at seat level based on demographic and geographic modelling and a large-sample survey. It rates Labor the more likely winner in 84 seats, although its randomised simulations of 20,000 potential scenarios suggests this flatters them, the probable range of outcomes being from 73 to 85. This would nonetheless seem encouraging for Labor given the poll credits them with only 27% of the primary vote.
By contrast, One Nation’s 26% vote gets them rated favourites in only 24 seats (range 22 to 35), whereas the Coalition’s 22% gets them 34 (range 25 to 44). The Greens are credited with 13% of the vote but no seats, a Liberal National win being rated the most likely outcome in their remaining seat of Ryan, although this is projected as a close three-way result. The pollster’s full release features primary vote, two-candidate preferred and win probability estimates for every seat. The survey was conducted August 4 to September 19 from a sample of 9740.
The latest result from a Roy Morgan series that has moved from weekly to fortnightly has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one-and-a-half to 24%, the Coalition down one to 21.5% and the Greens unchanged on 15%. Labor holds two-party leads of 53-47 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 52.5-47.5; 53.5-46.5 on previous election preferences; and 54.5-45.5 on a respondent-allocated measure against One Nation, out from 53.5-46.5. The pollster’s full report features primary vote breakdowns by state. The poll was conducted September 28 to October 11 from a sample of 2655.
Ven @10.28am
How about Narendra Modi? Are Collins, Wilson and Frydenburg to the left of him?
Ven
Godwin’s Law restrains me from making the obvious retort to this comment.
Cartoons
Rowe
Megan Herbert
Golding
Broelman
Mark David
Dionne Gain
Benke
– NEW DAILY
When the RAN officially allowed women to serve on ships in 1990, many old salts predicted this type of incident would be commonplace. But it appears that this caveat was misplaced. They’ll be the odd incident, such as one above, but by & large, it seems to have worked. WRANS, as they were called in my day, didn’t achieve pay parity with males until 1978, incrementally introduced over two years, and again there was a lot of disparaging chatter at the time. And if they got pregnant or married, they were discharged. I blame Germaine Greer.
The Wombat, Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:26 pm:
——————————-
Wombat – political party ‘leaders’ uttering political threats to whole sections of the Australian community, defined by their ethnic identity, just because they are passionately arguing a case those ‘leaders’ find uncomfortable, is completely beyond the pale.
newy boy
This seems to me to be an eminently fair point.
Apart from everything else I don’t like about him, Shoebridge is clearly none too bright. If he truly used to provide advice to people as to how to avoid paying tax, then I would suggest those people might like to seek some independent advice.
My first principal had (apparently) pretended to be living in sin for thirty years because if she’d admitted to being married she would have been sacked.
Thanks also D&M.
This is old news, and global not Australian, but I find it interesting in terms of political implications. The World Economic Forum did a Global Risks Report in 2025.
https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2025.pdf
The report looks at different national risks, and how people perceive them. The point is the perception of risk varies by age. Recessions are feared by the young, looking for jobs, and the middle aged, paying off mortgages, but not the old. Conversely plagues are feared mostly by the old. Whereas wars are feared by all aged groups. See page 14.
Soc
Thanks. That fits in well with the Sean carney SMH article about how fear is pushing our politics towards anger. I will read this when I get a chance.
The violence of imagery Shoebridge deployed to deliver his warning to the ethnic Ukrainian community in Australia – “Don’t burn your bridges” – was completely inappropriate. This is especially so, given the extent to which Ukrainian refugees, who were merely trying to flee from Russia’s genocidal military invasion and occupation of their country, have already been subjected to violence in most places around the world they have tried to find refuge. Is Shoebridge indifferent to the risk that such language might be stir up such mistreatment here against these innocent refugees?
Umm, yes. He doesn’t give a shit.
The Greens are a ununified rabble, supported by some voters with good intentions, but often left feeling “used”.
Jackie Lambie makes them appear inept and leaderless with every Senate bivouac.
Every Greens leader attempting a busing to Qld in whatever guise, lands “flat on their back” dusting off their political “arse”.
The polling then completes the task for their efforts.
Shoebridge needs to consider his “inner souls” before showing off his new shoes!
Sally Rooney books withdrawn in UK over Palestine Action support
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmx23q4g307vo
I really don’t like the concept of authors being banned in democratic societies. But, IMO there’s also nothing to like about an organisation that breaks into buildings and systematically destroys equipment. Rooney could quite easily express strong support for the Palestinian cause without tying herself to the extremist wing of its Western supporters.
As with everything else about the Millennial/Gen Z obsession with the Palestinian issue in western countries, to the exclusion of any concern about Ukraine, the Uighurs, etc, I simply don’t get it. But I won’t say any more for fear of annoying William. Rooney is a fine writer, and this is a damn shame.
Stephen Koukoulas:
The September labour force data were horrible.
Unemployment rate has risen 0.6 ppts in just 8 months and shows no signs of consolidating.
What’s more, wages growth is consistent with considerable slack in the labour market & there’s still the lagged effects of 100bps of hikes since February.
Throw in the fact that the fall in house prices is poised to reach record levels which will cruel consumer demand & threaten bank bad debts & it is frankly impossible to see how the RBA can hike again.
Unless it is inept or incompetent, of course.
Modi is to the left of all the above.
Peformative outrage from labor stooges. Shocker.
Shoebridge is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko
Leaders from three Ukrainian-Australian groups – challenged Shoebridge on his position in an online meeting on Friday.
The community leaders said they valued their relationship with the Greens, but they believed advocating for military aid to Ukraine was essential.
Shoebridge reported as saying The Greens have a long-standing commitment to working with the Australian-Ukrainian community against Russia.
Shoebridge said the Greens had received support from the Ukrainian-Australian community for its call to close albanese’s imports of Russian oil.
The Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organisations said following the meeting with Shoebridge that they had “a frank and constructive exchange about the Greens’ policy, its impact on the Ukrainian community and how Australia can best support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s full-scale invasion” and “We urge Senator Shoebridge and the Greens to reconsider their opposition to military aid and ensure Ukraine receives all the practical support it needs to survive and win its fight for freedom,” on their facey.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/don-t-burn-your-bridges-shoebridge-warns-ukrainian-community-over-military-aid-20261014-p615kk.html
Claims of inflammatory language are from unattributed sources. Seems like it was reasonably straightforward if not constructive.
Getting cross at the use of a common idiom is peak labor.
Any right-wing politician of Christin faith in the world is to the right of Modi because Modi has implemented lots of welfare for poor, farmers and workers. He is to the left of Starmer based Starmer record as PM
zoomster:
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:34 pm
Surely it would have been better to be married than to live in sin. But I guess the prevailing view was that if the principal married, she would not be able to do her job & maintain a home and children. We’ve certainly come a long way in a relatively short time.
As usual spun so tight it breaks.
Shoebridge said Ukraine shouldn’t burn its bridges.
Shoebridge said Australia shouldn’t support Ukraine against its invaders.
Shoebridge said Ukraine should stop making such a fuss about being invaded.
Shoebridge said Ukraine should seek a peaceful accommodation with the tanks currently occupying its territory.
Shoebridge said military aid only encourages Ukraine to continue defending itself.
Shoebridge said the quickest path to peace is for Ukraine to stop resisting the people invading it.
Shoebridge said Australia should stand with Ukraine, just not in any way that might help Ukraine win.
Shoebridge said the Greens strongly support Ukraine’s right to self defence, provided nobody gives it the means to defend itself.
Shoebridge said Russia’s invasion would be much easier to resolve if Ukraine stopped treating it like an invasion.
Shoebridge said Australia must send a clear message to Moscow by doing absolutely nothing that Moscow would object to.
Shoebridge said the Greens remain committed to supporting Ukraine through meaningless words of support.
Shoebridge said Ukraine needs friends, not ammunition.
Shoebridge said Australia should support Ukraine right up until that support becomes useful.
Shoebridge said the problem with military assistance is that Ukraine might use it against the Russian military.
nice
WSJ: WH Press secretary Katie Zacharia did not pass Bar exam.
“The problem is the ALP party membership and the unions still don’t want to listen to what the electorate told them. If you like, they just want to carry on yelling at the electorate, telling them they are stupid. This leadership change just demonstrates they think the solution is to yelling louder. They will need to lose another election before they move onto the listening phase.”
@Wombat
Wombat this a bunch of mindless dribble. Honestly, what would you know what the Labor membership is saying? And were you sprouting the same thing about the LNP when they were in opposition for 30 years out of the last 35 years?
I think David Crisafulli is benefiting from:
– running a tight ship with a united government
– A Labor government federally where voters like a balance. Peter Beattie benifited from this when John Howard was Prime Minister
– Steven Miles was previously premier. It’s hard to have a politcal reset after a loss remaining with the same leader. The Nationals found this out with Rob Borbidge remaining leader after being premier.
I wouldn’t get too complacent. The Labor people at Peel st know how to win state elections. The LNP hard heads are more then well aware of this. Underestimate them at you peril.
Charlie
I’m related to a Greens activist, an unashamed tankie and Putin apologist , from the same area as Shoebridge, and who highly recommends him. It seems to me that Shoebridge has let the mask slip
zoomster @ #828 Thursday, October 15th, 2026 – 10:24 am
The guardian provides some extra details.
I reckon adopting the rules at the un general assembly makes this a federal issue. If one state is failing to comply, the whole country is.
Charliesays:
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 1:09 pm
Claims of inflammatory language are from unattributed sources. Seems like it was reasonably straightforward if not constructive.
____________________
Fuck off. Your racist piece of shit party is telling Ukrainans to shut up and uncritically bend the knee to Chairman Shoebridge.
BW
Are you using MI is to post? 🙂
Not my party and not obviously what happened. Go off tho babes
Ven
Try to keep it real, Ven
Even Pauline Hanson is to the left of Modi.
She might be an appalling, contemptible racist, but at least her own bad acts towards Muslims have thus far been limited to disgusting rhetoric.
Ask the people forced at gunpoint to starve to death in slums during Covid just how nice Modi was to his nation’s poor.
“Labor has announced an independent review of a controversial algorithm aged care assessment tool which experts and advocates say had no human override function.
The government has faced sustained pressure over the issue to allow humans to review and change decisions made by the automated tool.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/oct/15/anthony-albanese-labor-pauline-hanson-monoculture-victorian-election-coalition-angus-taylor-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-6ad02ec58f080d5da2f478dc#block-6ad02ec58f080d5da2f478dc
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/jordon-steele-john-takes-leave-after-letter-raises-allegations-of-inappropriate-comments-to-women-20261015-p614vu.html
Interesting, and curious timing. One can’t help but wonder if this is a political hit, given he was negotiating with the government on the Medicare rebate for over 65’s.
“Anika Wells says the government is considering one of the key asks from the Greens, that individuals be allowed to take matters into their own hands and sue a tech company if they’ve experienced harm on their platform.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/oct/15/anthony-albanese-labor-pauline-hanson-monoculture-victorian-election-coalition-angus-taylor-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-6ad033948f087455c311c04b#block-6ad033948f087455c311c04b
As posted in Victorian thread
Warren Pickering is Pauline Hanson Lackey.
Wilson was/ is IPA apparatchik.
If she becomes Premier, she would most probably dance to the tune of
IPA
Pickering (whose supporters are atleast saying to lock Andrews and Allan up)
far-right MPs in her party.
Gina funded/funds IPA and ON.
Since Gina wants workers to work, there could be fair amount of pressure on Jess Wilson workers wages.
We do all understand that as a member of some right wing party you are on PB to conduct psyops to try and keep the left divided and infighting, we do get that.
But Shoebridge is of the left in much the same way as Stalinists were of the left.
Wombat is totally correct that Queensland Labor’s save the furniture strategy in 2024 did alienate a lot of Queenslanders in the bush, and I imagine there is still quite a bit of lingering anger in places. I disagree, however, that this is going to inevitably damage Labor’s standing in those parts to the point of making them unelectable for the immediate future. Consider that just six months after the state election, Federal Labor managed to perform surprisingly well in regional Queensland, picking up a bunch of provincial seats they haven’t held in ages.
I reckon Political Nightwatchmen has it right re the present situation in QLD state politics:
A change of leader on Labor’s part, more of a focus on the bush on their part, and more time for the Crisafulli government to piss people off (he is only halfway through his first term right now), and we could be looking at a very different contest in a few years. Or not. None of us really know.
The Wombat @ #882 Thursday, October 15th, 2026 – 12:52 pm
Interesting timing or not, it’s good that he’s taking leave, hopefully from the senate and not just the party room, while it’s investigated. I’m not sure it’s fair that he says he’s only aware of the details of one of several allegations made, but I’m sure he’ll be filled in on the details during the process. If the complaints are upheld I’d hope he resigns from the senate.
Political Nightwatchmansays:
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 1:26 pm
Honestly, what would you know what the Labor membership is saying? And were you sprouting the same thing about the LNP when they were in opposition for 30 years out of the last 35 years?
*******
What was i doing? I was talking to people in government, including the Premier and the Unions, in my Union capacity, telling them that they failing people in regional Queensland, who were paying their bills and that they were about to be murdered.
Then I quit, joined the LNP, and helped murder them. Because they wouldn’t listen and needed to be removed. And i really, really enjoyed it. That’s what i was doing.
Beatie did so well in Qld because half the state thought Wally Lewis was premier.
there’s none so radical as a turncoat
The Wombat
I am also interested in the timing. The allegations were made in a letter sent to Shoebridge last night by seven Greens party members. The allegations spanned the years 2017 to 2025.
Why now is an interesting question. It is of course possible that everything fell into line yesterday, but more likely that it was a difficult decision by the party member involved on whether to possibly blow up the Greens.
Perhaps Shoebridge threatening the Ukraine community was a step too far. Who knows.
But no one is denying that Shoebridge actually used the phrase to the Ukrainian representative. Such a phrase would normally be used by someone who perceives that they have some power with respect to the group.
I am still wondering what “don’t burn your bridges means”.
“I will not help you when I am PM unless you back off?”
“The Greens have a blocking majority in the Federal Senate, so we will block any bill that facilitates armed help going to Ukraine, in budget bills or however?”
Wombat quits union and joins LNP, Ilya Repin, oil on canvas
The Australian
I remember reading similar allegations about Steele-John not long after he entered parliament during the citizenship crisis, but as they had been published in that worthless rag Independent Australia, I just wrote them off as bullshit being spread by someone with an axe to grind.
Asha, That seems to be Steel-John’s claim (someone with an axe to grind) in the SMH article. Says that he believes a complainant is an ex who he alleges he was the victim of DV by. Not worth speculating on beyond its good that he’s out of the party room during the process – again, would prefer he were out of the senate for the duration
Not a good couple weeks for Greens, first selling out Ukraine and becoming a mouthpiece for Kremlin, now having to kick their own out of party room for being a creep.
MaccaRB
Responding to your post from around midday.
Yes, I did also say at the time that there may a defection from the Greens to Labor.
Charlie:
I admit I’m not really up on the details of these current allegations (just finished work and undercaffeinated and engaging the terrible habit I have sometimes of following current affairs through skim-reading Poll Bludger posts), but I don’t think politicians should be made to leave parliament based on these kinds of allegations or even charges until they actually get convicted of something.
Stepping down from ministerial positions, away from the party room, from committees, etc, while it is being investigated, sure, that’s definitely appropriate, but think forcing people to resign from posts that they were elected to on the basis of allegations that may or may not be legitimate establishes a very dangerous precedent that bad actors can use to manipulate the political process.
My only allegiance is to the bogans. I’m politically agnostic and pragmatic.
meher baba says:
Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:54 pm
She’s not banned.
You missed the bit about them breaking the spine of a Police Officer with a sledgehammer.