Unconnected electoral developments of the last fortnight or so:
• Paul Starick of The Advertiser reports the top end of Labor’s South Australian Senate ticket has been confirmed, with Penny Wong and Don Farrell unopposed for first and second position respectively. Starick notes that Farrell will be 80 by the end of a prospective six-year term beginning from mid-2028.
• Sarah Elks of The Australian reports a challenge to Liberal MP Angie Bell’s preselection in the Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff has fallen through, prospective nominee Trent Belling telling the Liberal National Party’s federal division council he had “taken the advice of many” in deciding to withdraw. Belling is a disability housing developer and the party’s metropolitan vice-president.
• DemosAU this week published a Tasmanian state poll showing that recorded little change on its last result in June/July, with the Liberals steady on 28%, Labor up one to 22%, One Nation steady on 21% and the Greens up one to 14%. Jeremy Rockliff was rated positively by 35% (steady), neutrally by 30% (up three) and negatively by 35% (down three), while Labor’s Josh Willie was respectively at 21% (down two), 50% (up two) and 29% (steady). Rockliff led over Willie on preferred premier was 42-34, compared with 41-32 last time. The poll was conducted September 1 to 20 from a sample of 1097.
• The Northern Territory’s Mulka by-election of September 12, arising from the retirement of independent member Yingiya Mark Guyula, ended with Labor’s Yiwarr McGrath polling 1960 votes to independent Andrew Blamey’s 574. This is Labor’s second by-election gain from the cross-bench since the August 2024 election, which reduced Labor to four seats, the first being when the Darwin seat of Nightcliff was won from the Greens in March. The governing Country Liberal Party continues to hold 17 seats, with Labor on six and two independents.
The world leader of the Exclusive Brethren church, which ran a covert campaign supporting the Coalition at the last federal election, has described Jews as evil, malicious infidels who are unable to ever atone for the sin of killing Jesus. Leaked church records spanning more than two decades reveal Bruce Hales, the church’s leader and “Elect Vessel”, repeatedly preaching to his 56,000-stong global flock that Jews are beyond redemption.
“The poor Jew, still in the darkness of Judaism, trying to atone for the things they’ve done wrong; their lies and their iniquity, and their wickedness,” Hales, the Brethren’s “Man of God”, said in 2009.
The Jews’ sin, Hales insists, is not recognising Jesus as the son of God, then “murdering” Him. He refers to Yom Kippur, the holiest day on the Jewish calendar, as when Jews “go on in their darkness trying to atone”. “They fell into evil … It’s not something they can eliminate,” he said in a separate 2009 ministry, adding in 2010 that this was a “terrible thing. What a void.”
https://archive.li/oOauL
In the EPL: Manchester City found guilty of 114 charges: Fifty-four were for failing to provide accurate financial information from 2009-10 to 2017-18
Fourteen were for failing to provide accurate details for player and manager payments from the same period
Five were for failing to comply with Uefa’s rules from 2013-14 to 2017-18
Seven were for breaching Premier League profitability and sustainability rules from 2015-16 to 2017-18
Thirty-five were for failing to co-operate with the investigation from 2018-23. Punishment yet to be announced City face a range of sanctions from a fine to points deductions and even expulsion from the Premier League. Or a combination of all.
Austin Peterson: GOP state Senate candidate in Minnesota. During a debate
Moderator: What have you done to ensure clean water in our community?
Peterson: Yeah, you know, it’s not that—I’m trying to think of one, I’m just trying to think of a good answer here. Clean water is really important. Looking at it from where I live, near Rollo, we live near lakes country, right? So, environmentally, we canoe a lot on our lake, and when we put gasoline in our boats, right—we’re putting that gasoline in on the shore and not in the lake. So, I mean, it’s small things, but when we look at clean water—Minnesota, when I think of Minnesota, I think clean water, I think trees, I think outdoors—and so it’s important for us to all live by high standards to protect our resources.
William the Greens are on 15 in the Tassie Poll
Hoping the Dockers get it done today
Politics & Poll Tracker
@PollTracker2024
#TexasSenate
New York Times focus group of a dozen Trump 2024 voters from Texas weigh in on Ken Paxton:
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2103109068453753113?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2103119217817960699%7Ctwgr%5E29f2be7de2474d3de0f5c815c32b537521b813b3%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F9%2F25%2F800103079%2Fcommunity%2Fabbreviated-pundit-roundup%2F
Silver Bulletin:
The blue wave is mostly in red states. That’s a little weird.
Still Counting EP3. Plus some quick thoughts on that NYT poll in Maine.
The NYT is a very honest (and highly-rated) pollster that doesn’t herd. So a variety of interpretations are possible:
1. Noise/sampling error;
Collins being particularly tough to beat;
2. Democrats’ polling strength being concentrated in red states, not blue states.
3. The third interpretation is the one I want to briefly explore here.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-blue-wave-is-mostly-in-red-states
Supreme Court looking to do their bit to screw the midterms approving the use of SAVE to verify voters
It’s going to be very messy
Shout out to the Socceroos who came within a whisker of beating Brazil
There is a chart.
@Redistrict
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
New @CookPolitical: with less than 40 days to go, the most critical voters are the “doubly disenchanted” – the ~17% of Trump disapprovers who aren’t (yet) in the Dem column. The critical pain point for them? Energy/gas prices. My full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…
12:49 AM · Sep 25, 2026
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https://x.com/Redistrict/status/2103134694711976183?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2103134694711976183%7Ctwgr%5Ea40d3de36dbdf6a7875e3d42a8745575b4e65cd6%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F9%2F25%2F800103079%2Fcommunity%2Fabbreviated-pundit-roundup%2F
Bill Scher
@billscher
Updating again as several polls dropped today. Sept. Senate polls avgs no internals:
NC: D+8.6
GA : D+7
NH: D+5.3
TX: D+3.4
AK: D+3.3
OH: D+3.1
MI: D+2.6
ME: D+2.1
MN: D+1.75
IA: D+1.3
NE: Tie
KS: R+1.8
SC: R+2
FL: R+6.5
MT: R+13.5
No polls in SD/MS/ID (not counting ATR poll)
@billscher
Bill Scher
@billscher
Sep 24
Updated Sept. Senate polls avgs, no internals. MI inches ahead of ME.
7:05 AM · Sep 25, 2026
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https://x.com/billscher/status/2103229369430786062?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2103229369430786062%7Ctwgr%5E60cacd1b15f7bd3be3bdb1178c51c980e2cdb896%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F9%2F25%2F800103079%2Fcommunity%2Fabbreviated-pundit-roundup%2F
UK Survation poll covering 22-23 September (compared to their last on 9-10 September)
Labour: 27% (-1)
Reform: 24% (+1)
Conservative: 21% (=)
Lib Dems: 11% (+1)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Restore: 2% (=)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (-1)
Others: 4% (=)
Leadership Approval:
Andy Burnham: Approve 45% (+2), Disapprove 29% (+1), net +16 (+1)
Kemi Badenoch: Approve 39% (+2), Disapprove 31% (+2), net +8 (=)
Nigel Farage: Approve 32% (=), Disapprove 50% (+1), net -18 (-1)
Ed Davey: Approve 28% (+1), Disapprove 27% (-1), net +1 (+2)
Zack Polanski: Approve 19% (-2), Disapprove 45% (+4), net -26 (-6)
It seems the UK Greens have dropped the ball for the moment.
UK Greens will get a big boost when Zack Polanski wins the by-election on the 8th (from memory)