Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

An emerging consensus from pollsters that Labor’s primary vote is descending from the high to the mid-twenties, as Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings deteriorate further.

The fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor steady on 26% (after dropping three points last time), One Nation down three to 27%, the Coalition up three to 21% and the Greens up two to 14%. Labor remains ahead on two-party preferred, with leads of 55-45 over One Nation (out from 53-47) and 52-48 over the Coalition (unchanged). Anthony Albanese’s leadership ratings are similar to those recorded by Newspoll, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up three to 62%, while Angus Taylor is unchanged at 36% and 48%. Albanese retains preferred prime minister leads of 41-37 over Taylor (43-39 a fortnight ago) and 50-38 (51-40). The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1471; extensive demographic breakdowns on voting intention can be found in the News24 report.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll records unusually little change, with Labor steady on 25%, One Nation up half a point to 25.5%, the Coalition steady on 21.5% and the Greens down half a point to 15.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead against One Nation is in from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46; against the Coalition, Labor’s lead is in from 55-45 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 53-47 to 52-48 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1561.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

20 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

  1. Mr Joyce said. “We would want there to be clear acknowledgement that they are our policy outcomes and we’d have a regimen then of looking at legislation that came forward and we would expect the same deal if we had greater numbers than the Coalition.”
    …………………………………………………………………………………………
    Election 2028 Poster and theme –

    “A vote for the Liberals is a vote for Hanson” endorsed by the KKK

    It will be the death of the Libs.

  2. Ah bugger it, I’ll just start repeating it.

    Sadly time for Albo to go.

    I’ve watched locally what happens to Labor, or any party really, once they get below 30%, nothing good is the answer.

  3. It’s great to see a little movement towards the Greens, numbers in the teens are appearing more frequently and across various pollsters. Building off a solid base as well

    I’m hoping we see the One Nation vote falling more frequently. Are we headed for sub 25 Labor? It’s not all that long folks were worried about sub 30. LNP bouncing around 20. Which of course means the combined “majors” well south of 50

    We live in interesting times

    #PlentyIn28

  4. What has always struck me about the long term move from one income households to two income households is that we never became twice as wealthy.

    Raising kids to expensive, we’ve now got 4 year old twins. Our household income is much higher than the median, but we barely keep our heads above water.

    Childcare being the same cost as public school would be a game changer for Australia.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/23/cost-of-raising-two-children-in-australia-has-risen-134-in-two-decades-study-says

  5. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Donald Trump has said he must decide whether to make a deal with Iran or “annihilate the Islamic Republic” during a speech to world leaders at the UN: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-23/donald-trump-addresses-united-nations-general-assembly/107179392

    Trump’s Crazed U.N. Speech Met With Silence and Walkouts: https://newrepublic.com/post/215711/trump-un-speech-silence-walkouts

    Trump stared down as he threatens to ‘drive Iran into hell with no chance of survival’: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-iran-2677915283/

    Putin is using Trump to stall for time in Ukraine, Estonia foreign minister says: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/09/22/trump-putin-ukraine-war-estonia-margus-tsahkna/91888307007/

    Burnham refuses to rule out rejoining EU: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/09/22/andy-burnham-refuses-rule-out-rejoining-eu-brussels/?accesscontrol=facebookchannel_open

    Türkiye’s Erdoğan proposes stripping permanent UN Security Council members of veto power: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/09/22/8054571/

    Support for Reform UK plummets to lowest level in two years: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-uk-polling-yougov-nigel-farage-b3054158.html

    British Columbia sues OpenAI and Sam Altman over Tumbler Ridge mass school shooting: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/sep/22/british-columbia-sues-openai-sam-altman-tumbler-ridge-school-shooting

    ‘Incredible Story of Corruption’: Bombshell Report Puts Susan Collins at Center of Massive Bribery Scheme: https://www.commondreams.org/news/incredible-story-of-corruption-bombshell-report-puts-susan-collins-at-center-of-massive-bribery-scheme

    Trump’s FBI Killed Bombshell Bribery Investigation Into Susan Collins: https://newrepublic.com/post/215704/fbi-targeting-susan-collins-bombshell-bribery-probe-until-trump

    ‘North Korea Type S**t’: New Trump TV Slammed As Instant ‘Global Embarrassment: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-tv-feed-reaction_n_6ab1ef76e4b043d6b5683fb1/amp

    Mamdani again calls for Israel’s Netanyahu to be arrested when he comes to NY this week: ‘A war criminal’: https://nypost.com/2026/09/22/us-news/mamdani-again-calls-for-israels-netanyahu-to-be-arrested-when-he-comes-to-ny-this-week-a-war-criminal/

    Trump snaps at CNN at United Nations: ‘You should not be here covering me’: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/22/trump-cnn-un-white-house-media-ban.html

    Hurricane Polo is still strengthening after undergoing extreme rapid intensification and becoming a rare Category 5 on Tuesday morning in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/22/weather/hurricane-polo-category-5-mexico-climate

    ‘Looksmaxxing’ influencer Clavicular charged with rape of teen girl: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/clavicular-looksmaxxing-charged-rape-massachusetts-rcna599130

  6. The Liberal Party are rolling out the policies – by trawling the back catalog.

    This from the LOTO-in-Waiting, Dan Tehan.

    EXCLUSIVE
    Coalition unveils eight-point plan to end Bowen’s green revolution

    Reigniting the climate wars, the Coalition wants to abolish net zero, kill offshore wind zones and revive nuclear.

    Bibi Bugle

  7. Mostly Interested, Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 6:08 am:

    Ah bugger it, I’ll just start repeating it.

    Sadly time for Albo to go.

    I’ve watched locally what happens to Labor, or any party really, once they get below 30%, nothing good is the answer.

    MI, I’m not buying what you’re selling.

    1. Labor is ahead of both ON and the Coalition on TPP in both these polls. For any incumbent government, that’s an election-winning position.

    2. Every party has a PV below 30%. Should Hanson and Taylor resign too, for the good of their parties? I mean, sub-30% PV and behind on TPP is worse than sub-30% PV and ahead on TPP, isn’t it?

    3. We are still 20 months out from the next election. A lot can change in that time. Look how the polling situation has changed in the last 16 months (ie, since the last election).

  8. sprocket_says:
    Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 6:56 am
    The Liberal Party are rolling out the policies – by trawling the back catalog.

    This from the LOTO-in-Waiting, Dan Tehan.

    EXCLUSIVE
    Coalition unveils eight-point plan to end Bowen’s green revolution

    Reigniting the climate wars, the Coalition wants to abolish net zero, kill offshore wind zones and revive nuclear.

    I also noticed this 1950s announcement!
    It will appeal to the Liberal right and ON devotees.
    A return to black and white television could also be on the agenda.

  9. Omar – cheers for the link to that slimebag Rubio. One of the comments there: “Did Rubio just admit that the US is buying or facilitating the buying of Russian oil?”

  10. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 6:19 am
    What has always struck me about the long term move from one income households to two income households is that we never became twice as wealthy.

    Raising kids to expensive, we’ve now got 4 year old twins. Our household income is much higher than the median, but we barely keep our heads above water.

    Childcare being the same cost as public school would be a game changer for Australia.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/23/cost-of-raising-two-children-in-australia-has-risen-134-in-two-decades-study-says

    ___________________

    Im highly sceptical of these findings, as they are the opposite of actual academic research in this area:

    https://theconversation.com/how-much-does-it-really-cost-to-raise-a-child-an-expert-does-the-maths-266048

    And these “findings” from this advocacy group comes barely 2 months after the Gov just expanded the paid parental scheme to 6 months and added super payments:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-01/july-1-law-changes-tax-cut-paid-parental-leave/106854256

    So a “full year at replacement wage”? That would be a doubling of a doubling of a paid leave scheme in a way that overwhelmingly benefits high income households.

    Also making childcare cheaper again would help, but I’d expect countervailing whinge from other parts of the left re: benefits to the rich:

    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/taxpayers-give-2-7b-to-rich-families-in-childcare-parental-leave-20260623-p609ee

    I dont know (I do know actually) why the guardian mentions none of the above in their reporting.

    And finally, the elephant in the room that not all birthrates are equal

    https://e61.in/the-fertility-illusion-why-australias-record-low-fertility-rate-hides-a-surprising-truth/

    “Comparing fertility trends by birthplace reinforces this point. Since 2019, the TFR of Australian-born women has fallen from approximately 1.73 to 1.64. But aggregate TFR has fallen more than twice as far, from 1.69 to 1.48. The gap is driven by a small increase in the share of overseas-born women of reproductive age and a large decrease in their measured fertility, potentially reflecting shifts in migrant composition post-COVID.”

  11. This is why party processes and procedures for leadership spills became more strict.

    You do not want another merry-go-round of Prime Ministers again in Australia like you had from 2007-2022.

  12. Not sure I’d be hanging my hat on 2pp estimates at present tbh but whatever makes people feel more relaxed about a primary vote in the mid 20’s I guess

    Strong pushback from Trump and the US on the Digital Duty of Care, will Australia fold?

    Will we rename AI to SI (super intelligence)?

    I hope not on either front

  13. Massive scandal unfolding into Susan Collins bribery allegations….

    Reporting Highlights
    Probe: In 2024, the FBI sought to launch a sweeping pay-to-play investigation examining interactions between Sen. Susan Collins and a top donor, records and emails show.

    Confession: The donor, an ex-defense contractor, told agents his company won millions in federal contracts by bankrolling campaigns of powerful politicians.

    Shutdown: After Donald Trump returned to office, the investigation died, a casualty of his purge of the FBI. Its closure shut a potential window into how Washington works.

    https://www.propublica.org/article/fbi-susan-collins-navatek-campaign-donations-investigation

  14. If Andrew Earlwood is round, this is from the previous thread.

    Former Adm Peter Briggs (who oversaw completion and fixing defects on the Collins class sub build) gives a forensic dismantling of UK progress on AUKUS pillar one.
    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/09/ssn-aukus-assurances-from-the-smoking-ruins-of-the-uks-submarine-program/

    This is in response to UK officials recent visits to Australia to reassure us that our billions are not being wasted. Key points:
    – attempts to get UK SSN maintenance back on track have failed
    – HMS Agamemnon “commissioning” last year was a farce. It has yet to go to sea for trials.
    – SSN AUKUS design is NOT on track. Preliminary design review due in September 2026 has not occured.
    – SSN reactor builder Rolls Royce is far short of technical workforce recruiting targets.

    “ As former UK director of nuclear policy Rear Admiral Philip Mathias brutally observed, the UK is simply “no longer capable of managing a nuclear submarine programme”, warning that Britain’s nuclear submarine fleet is in “deep trouble” and simply lacks the industrial and human capacity to provide Australia with the support it needs.”

    At some point Albo or Marles or their successors will have to admit reality on AUKUS. Albo has presumably decided he will not deal with it before retiring.

    This US report is also relevant and detailed.
    https://www.csis.org/analysis/aukus-turns-five-real-progress-hard-challenges-ahead

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