Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

An emerging consensus from pollsters that Labor’s primary vote is descending from the high to the mid-twenties, as Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings deteriorate further.

The fortnightly News24 Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor steady on 26% (after dropping three points last time), One Nation down three to 27%, the Coalition up three to 21% and the Greens up two to 14%. Labor remains ahead on two-party preferred, with leads of 55-45 over One Nation (out from 53-47) and 52-48 over the Coalition (unchanged). Anthony Albanese’s leadership ratings are similar to those recorded by Newspoll, with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up three to 62%, while Angus Taylor is unchanged at 36% and 48%. Albanese retains preferred prime minister leads of 41-37 over Taylor (43-39 a fortnight ago) and 50-38 (51-40). The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1471; extensive demographic breakdowns on voting intention can be found in the News24 report.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll records unusually little change, with Labor steady on 25%, One Nation up half a point to 25.5%, the Coalition steady on 21.5% and the Greens down half a point to 15.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead against One Nation is in from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46; against the Coalition, Labor’s lead is in from 55-45 to 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 53-47 to 52-48 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1561.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,110 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. “There would be a fair few people on here who could be in trouble if it was decided that ‘offending’ a politician was a crime.”
    It already is, if it was a politician that was harassed, menaced or had a communication made to them that was found offensive based on “the standards of morality, decency and propriety generally accepted by reasonable adults”.

  2. We do have a free speech right in the Commonwealth Constitution. It applies to State laws too. Essentially, if the relevant speech is a political communication, a law restricting that speech is invalid, subject to rather vague exceptions. The High Court found this protection implied by section 7 and 24 of the Constitution.
    The question of the validity of section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act will be tested in, I think, a suit by Pauline Hanson.

  3. Rafiki,

    If I understand correctly, that right to free speech isn’t explicitly stated. It was found by the High Court in a particular case brought against the NSW government, on the basis of what sounded suspiciously like ‘it’s the vibe of the thing’.

  4. Will One Nation have a plan post the american mid terms?

    Assume that the GOP is virtually nullified with the dems taking both houses and making Trump a lame duck. A slow return to rules based order, a relative global stablity that should drive down the price of commodities, interest rates and broad cost of living relief etc reaching most corners of the planet.

    Would Barnaby and co be reduced to explaning how it would be a wonderful thing for ‘fair dinkum, dinky di aussies’ to get out of bed at 5:30am on a sunday morning as part of a rotating, national patriotic roster to cook your $15 bacon and egg roll and coffee at the local cafe ?, or do a couple of tuesday night shifts a month after your 9-5 gig at the local chicken processing plant to preserve the $12 woolies hot chook?.

    I look forward to seeing how One Nation re pivot to accomodate any sort of disasterous cost of living recovery !

  5. Am I missing something? Why on earth is everyone talking about the US midterms in the context of Australian elections? What do they have to do with, well, anything happening here?

  6. Ante Meridian
    In essence you’re right. The freedom of political communication was found to be implicit in the notion of representative government established by sections 7 and 24. It is reasoned (although asserted might be a better way to put it) that electors cannot vote sensibly unless communication (talk) about who they might vote for, and why, is free.
    But the High Court created doctrine also allows that restrictions may be placed on this freedom, according to a very complicated schema. In the end, a judge must resort to their own perception of what’s appropriate.
    At least one current High Court judge would like to overule the precedent cases, and there’s no reason why this can’t be done by a majority of the Court.
    I could bore on at more length, but some here might be be severely discombobulated. Wikipedia will provide detail.

  7. Landlord of the Yearsays:
    Friday, September 25, 2026 at 9:14 pm
    US Midterms won’t have any impact on the Victorian election.
    ======================================
    Yep. Unlike the frequenters of PB, the vast majority of Victorian voters will be oblivious of the outcome of the American mid-terms.

  8. Bystandersays:
    Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:58 pm
    nathsays:
    Friday, September 25, 2026 at 10:08 pm
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, September 25, 2026 at 9:24 pm
    Sydney man Nathan Ballesty has been sentenced to three years’ imprisonment for performing a Nazi salute

    Seems a bit excessive. I would have thought twelve months would have been a sufficient wake up call.
    =======================================================
    Wow: three years for a non-violent hand gesture.
    What would you recommend for someone materially supporting the slaughter of tens of thousands of innocent children, the murder of hundreds of journalists, the killing of doctors, nurses, paramedics and aid workers; none of whom have committed a single act of violence?

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