The Daily Telegraph reports (though seemingly not online) that latest DemosAU poll of state voting intention in New South Wales has the Coalition bouncing back five points to 25%, mostly at the expense of One Nation who are down four from a record high to 23%. Labor and the Greens are steady on 32% and 13% respectively. The pollster provides a two-party figure with Labor leading 57-43 based on preference flows in 2023, but cautions that this “factors in a large exhaustion rate for One Nation voters” that could be lower in the event of a preference deal. The poll also features upper house voting intention results with Labor on 31%, the Coalition on 25%, One Nation on 24% and the Greens on 14%, and a seat projection showing 20 or perhaps 21 seats out of 40 going to a broadly defined right.
Leadership ratings, which did not feature in the June poll, find Chris Minns at 37% positive, 41% neutral and 22% negative, Kellie Sloane is at 25%, 55% and 20%, and Chris Minns leading 44-26 on preferred premier. Further questions find 55% support for the federal-state gun buyback scheme with 27% opposed, and 28% of a view that the state is headed in the right direction compared with 49% for wrong direction (a uniform pattern of such polling of late). The poll was conducted August 19 to 26 from a sample of 1028; the full report features demographic breakdowns and should be available on the pollster’s website over the next day or so.
Further news of relevance to the election in March:
• One Nation has announced Mike Newman as its prospective parliamentary leader and candidate for the Labor-held Hunter region seat of Cessnock. Newman served from 2022 to 2024 as one of the state’s trade and investment commissioners, a role made famous by former Nationals leader John Barilaro and abolished when Labor came to power. The party’s upper house ticket will be headed by Stuart Bonds, who has twice achieved strong results in the federal seat for Hunter.
• The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Tara Moriarty has been reduced to seventh position on Labor’s upper house ticket after leading it in 2019. Daniel Mookhey and Penny Sharpe will head the ticket, followed by newcomer Bernard Govind, incumbent Anthony D’Adam, and newcomers Mark Morey and Asren Pugh. Not featured are incumbents Mark Buttigieg, who reportedly lost the support of the Right because the Electrical Trades Union was no longer aligned with it, and Greg Donnelly, who is retiring.
• Rod Bruem of the Ballina News Daily reports Byron Shire councillor Janet Swain and former NBN News cameraman Lachlan Hall have nominated for Labor preselection in Ballina, which will be vacated at the election with the retirement of Greens member Tamara Smith.
NSW Labor are performing well in this poll overall. Significantly, Labor’s standing in the outer suburbs has improved compared to June.
I imagine the softening of the One Nation vote, which has already been seen in Victorian and Queensland state polling, accounts for the increased Coalition vote.
Regional breakdowns:
Inner metro – NSW Labor should win a lot of seats from the NSW Liberals.
Regional – One Nation should win seats from both major parties and the independents.
Outer metro – Labor up (32%) and One Nation down (24%), compared to the June DemosAU poll where both were on 29%. Labor has clearly strengthened its position here.
Blah Blah I work on the theory the best way to change Labor is to vote Greens
Noting the Feds are going after RAFFWU as well
Latest Morgan.
In a week that saw the ALP lose a State by-election in Western Australia to One Nation, ALP primary support is up 2.5% to 29.5%, ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 3.5%), the L-NP Coalition 20.5% – Liberals 18% (down 0.5%) and Nationals 2.5% (unchanged), Greens, down 0.5% to 13.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 2% to 13% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 24-30, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,585 electors.
The weekend’s One Nation victory in the Secret Harbour by-election which came as a surprise to many, was almost a foregone conclusion – Roy Morgan data showed Secret Harbour electors were ranked among the most likely to feel they ‘get a raw deal in life’ and ‘the core values of our society are under threat’.
These people are part of the more than one million disaffected Australians Roy Morgan has been tracking for more than 2 years.
Roy Morgan’s subscriber only nationwide monthly research showed One Nation’s extraordinary rise in Secret Harbour from 10% in October 2025 to 19% by January, 26% by April, 36% by July, and 40% in August.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a clear majority against either One Nation or the L-NP Coalition
In many electorates at the Election the contest is set to be between the ALP and One Nation. When preferences are allocated for Coalition, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters between the ALP and One Nation, Roy Morgan estimates the ALP 55.5% (up 2.5%) is in front of One Nation 44.5% (down 2.5%).
If the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences), the ALP is also ahead – ALP 56% (up 4%) cf. L-NP 44% (down 4%).
No Favoursays:
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 4:26 pm
NSW Labor are performing well in this poll overall. Significantly, Labor’s standing in the outer suburbs has improved compared to June.
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You might want to look at DemosAU’s polling results for the outer suburbs of Perth immediately prior to the Secret Harbour by-election before you put too much store in this result.
Outer Suburbs of Sydney is not the same as the extremely white suburbs of Secret Harbour. The only significant non-British ethnicity in Secret Harbour is white South African migrants.
“Secret Harbour electors were ranked among the most likely to feel they ‘get a raw deal in life’ ”
This would be funny if it weren’t so sad. That area has:
* A much lower unemployment rate than the rest of WA and Australia in general.
* Less long term health conditions with less multiple long term health conditions.
* 99% of them live in a 3 or 4 or more bedroom house.
* 26% of them have a car, 45% have two cars and 27% of them have THREE or more!
* Median Personal income is significantly higher than WA & the rest of Australia.
* Media Household income is massively higher than WA and Australia.
It reminds me of the puff pieces about Hay when they voted for the racist party because they aren’t hand-fed grapes & showered in even more cash and facilities and life is just so hard for them they HAVE to get rid of the migrants who are working in their hospitals and GP offices & schools.
These people are living in an alternative reality generated by social media & the murdoch rags, and are voting for racist, incompetent One Nation because of it.
@Ghost Of Whitlam, because people who voted for One Nation are focuses and vibes on cultural issues rather than the typical bread and butter issues with the currently political environment being moral panics about non-whites increasing in percentage terms thus fear of Anglo-Celtic losing relevance. Secret Harbour is literally around 95% White (with it being roughly 90% Anglo-Celtic), far from the city centre and low university attainment so people here are more likely wanting to see this a Anglo-Celtic Nation State which causes for many residents to be pretty insufferable to see any influx of non-whites moving there (Let pretend say it went from 4% non-white to 7% non-white in the past five years).
Here is Ezra Klein in the 2018 Vox Video proving this theory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbjciJvacXY&source_ve_path=MjM4NTE&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tallyroom.com.au%2F