YouGov: Labor 29, One Nation 26, Coalition 21 (open thread)

YouGov’s fortnightly poll widens the gap between One Nation and the Coalition, against the recent trend.

The fortnightly YouGov News24 Pulse poll has Labor up a point to 29%, One Nation up two to 26%, the Coalition down one to 21%, the Greens steady on 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures have Labor’s lead over One Nation unchanged at 56-44, and out from 52-48 to 53-47 against the Coalition. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 35% and up two on disapproval to 59%, while Angus Taylor is down two to 33% and up three to 49%. Albanese holds preferred prime minister leads of 44-37 over Angus Taylor, out from 42-38, and 52-37 over Pauline Hanson, out from 51-38.

The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Monday from a sample of 1510; extensive breakdowns on voting intention are available in the accompanying report. We are also about due for the monthly Essential Research poll – if so, that’s likely to be live by the time you read this, either through The Guardian or the pollster’s website. (UPDATE: Apparently not.)

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,659 thoughts on “YouGov: Labor 29, One Nation 26, Coalition 21 (open thread)”

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  1. Entropy
    The economic data would be okay, not great for a Liberal Government because many in its base are still spending. What about the people not in work and Labor has to pay more attention to it.

  2. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 7:37 pm

    Stephen Koukoulas: Interesting that since the budget:

    ASX up 5%
    Consumer confidence up 21%
    Business confidence up 18 points
    Household spending up 1% or more every month
    New dwelling building approvals up
    Business expect to increase capex by 15% in FY2026-27

    I find those numbers amazing. I have been led to believe by the doomsters and fudsters that we are all going to hell in a handbasket.

  3. nadiasays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 7:58 pm
    Hard Being Green says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 7:52 pm
    So is Newspoll 9pm or 9.30pm these days?
    I remember the old days of Ghost Who Votes on Twitter but they are long gone.
    _______________________
    Or the PVO Wow !

  4. nadiasays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 8:03 pm
    Thanks K.
    So another 15 minutes to wait.
    Anyone up for a sing song.
    ==========================================

    For poll pessimists my suggestion is:
    “Misery’s coming around” from Showboat

    For poll optimists:
    “We Are the Champions” by Queen

    or

    “Ain’t No Mountain High Enough” by Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell
    with “Mountain” in song replaced by “poll numbers”.

  5. Saturday 31 October, 12pm. I am going to book Harry’s Hotel, preferably the outdoor area…

    You want to make sure shelter from rain is available if you go for outdoors. Sydney’s 2020’s climate has been pretty fickle.

  9. BW cherry picking stats timing that were significantly down due to ME crisis but which have recovered much of what was lost. I doubt that was due to the budget.

  10. I agree with BK that Victoria should take one for the team, after having had the luxury of a Labor government for 12 years. The only way to rid the polity of Hanson is if she governs somewhere – a state or territory – where she can’t do too much damage. It’s fairly simple to be a party of protest, but not so simple to govern effectively. If Vic won’t have her, then it will have to be NSW in March ’27.

  13. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 8:17 pm
    Poll songs while we wait:
    Gloomy Sunday—Billie Holiday or
    Good Vibrations – Beach Boys
    =======================================

    Got a feeling Strange Fruit might like the first selection here.

  15. dwh

    Thanks. You are right. I never believe anything good anymore.

    The following are either lies or don’t count. Take your pick. Or pick your whinge. Whatever.

    Australians have the highest housing space per capita in the world, the third highest wealth, five of the 20 most liveable cities, one of the highest minimum wages, one of the most generous parental leave systems, one of the best systems for aged care, one of the best health systems, tap water we can drink, plentiful food that we can eat without getting sick, a system for getting rid of sewage, one of the highest percentage conservation estates in the world, commercial fisheries fished on a sustainable basis, one of the lowest murder rates per capita and, for that matter, clean air to breathe.

  16. nadiasays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 8:20 pm
    Entropy – one for you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CS9OO0S5w2k

    By the way, you owe me.
    =====================================

    What exactly do I owe you, I admitted you got it right about a certain person who I think lived in the electorate of Spence but may now live in Leichardt?

    How many posts acknowledging the righteousness of your prediction here are required?

  18. Sprocket_says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 6:08 pm
    Heroic projection for LNP on 22 primary getting to 52 on 2PP

    No, Sprocket
    Redbridge gave orange colour to L-NP. Hence it is 48 2PP to L-NP and 52 2PP to ON.

  20. The Skipper/Wilson Victorian government is going to get rid of the Voice and the Treaty. The latter are now just a few more examples that the white man speaks with forked tongue. As it were.

    It also scuppers the argument of those who were putting it about during the No Referendum that the Federal Treaty and Voice could and/or should be legislated rather than enshrined in the Constitution.

  21. Reminded of a saying that sets apart the fascists and non-fascists.

    “If you are elected to power, you will not harm us because it is not in your principles to do so, so we will still exist.

    However, if we are elected to power, we will destroy you, because it is in our principles to do so. So what will happen when we triumph over you will be fair.”

  23. procket_says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 6:08 pm
    Heroic projection for LNP on 22 primary getting to 52 on 2PP

    Serves you right.
    Remember, If ALP goes, Greens go down even further and they won’t have any leverage with LNP-ON government.
    Keep bagging ALP to your hearts content. Greens will be collateral damage. I think you don’t care if Greens go down as long as ALP goes down.

  25. ‘It’s High Time to Expel the Israeli Ambassador to Australia

    Calls to expel Israeli ambassador to Australia Hillel Newman are again rising. This is in relation to his recent comments around the Israeli Defence Force having absolved itself of the murder of Australian aid worker Zomi Frankcom, along with his pompous op-ed suggesting “Jew-hatred” is out of control locally and his denials of the claims of Australian women alleging sexual assault at IDF hands.

    Foreign minister Penny Wong announced on 20 August 2026 that Israel had announced it would not be prosecuting IDF personnel over Frankcom’s 2024 death or that of the rest of her World Central Kitchen convoy, killed alongside her. Wong deemed this “outrageous”, which is a strong word to use against Israel. Newman, however, then appeared to urinate all over local sensibilities.

    Before the press, the ambassador threw his support behind the IDF findings, suggesting that the military had considered the convoy Hamas. He fell short of any apology, and instead, absolved Israel of any “criminal responsibility”. And on being questioned as to whether this would sully Israel’s reputation, the official then launched into a diatribe about the many of “haters of Israel” in Australia.

    Newman, a career diplomat, who was only appointed as ambassador to Australia in February this year, has twice been called in to speak with the foreign affairs minister about the brazen manner in which his nation has been harming Australians. And the condescending nature of the ambassador’s repeated public pronouncements has been taken as a quintessential example of Israeli belligerence.

    Calls to expel the Israeli ambassador from Australia began within weeks of Israel launching the Gaza genocide in October 2023. But the calls have become more pronounced over 2026, as Newman has repeatedly chimed in on the local narrative to assert Israel’s position in an insensitive manner, that’s not only lacked diplomacy but has further been devoid of any respect towards local authority.

    Diplomacy or just plain belligerence

    “Circumstances, conditional aspects led the soldiers at the time to believe this convoy had been taken over and controlled by Hamas, and they opened fire,” Newman told reporters in Canberra. “Now it was a mistake in retrospect. But the findings of the court are that there was no criminal intention, no intention to hit at aid workers, and therefore, there is no criminal responsibility.”

    “We are really sorry for the family. We express deep sorrow and grief with the family of Zomi Frankcom,” the ambassador continued. “We care. But in the end, one must also understand that not every case where someone dies, a casualty, means that there’s criminal liability. One cannot attack the findings of the court, if the findings are not suitable to one’s political agenda.”

    At a 20 August afternoon press conference about the Israeli determination on the Frankcom case, Wong was hit with multiple questions regarding the continued presence of the Israeli ambassador in light of his comments, and she responded that this nation doesn’t host ambassadors to curry favour with other countries, but rather, it serves to facilitate in the advancing of Australian interests.

    Wong also noted that the IDF investigation outcome has hardly rectified all the questions surrounding the killing of Frankcom and six other aid workers, as even if the first strike upon the convoy of aid vehicles had been a mistake, there has been no proper accounting for the two further strikes that were made upon the vehicles, with two minutes delays between each of them.

    “Sadly, there are a lot of haters of Israel in Australia,” Newman said, in addressing a question, directly after he delivered his comments on the slain Australian aid worker’s death. “After Israel was attacked in an Hamas attack on 7 October, when 1,200 Israelis were killed… two days after Israel was attacked, before an Israeli soldier went into Gaza, there were demonstrations against Israel.”

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/its-high-time-to-expel-the-israeli-ambassador-to-australia/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-36

    Although Newman deserves to be expelled, with a Royal Commission still sitting, it’s arguably not good timing. If Netanyahu does get booted in October, the incoming PM should consider ratifying the Rome Statute. Apparently there’s
    a cell now available in The Hague.

  26. Entropy says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 8:25 pm
    nadia says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 8:20 pm
    Entropy – one for you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CS9OO0S5w2k

    By the way, you owe me.
    =====================================

    What exactly do I owe you, I admitted you got it right about a certain person who I think lived in the electorate of Spence but may now live in Leichardt?

    How many posts acknowledging the righteousness of your prediction here are required?
    ===============
    That will do for starters, Entropy.

    The poster who used to refer to you as a “sad clown” is active on the site tonight too.

  27. sprocket_says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 6:06 pm

    I no longer believe these polls. ON got 38% PV in a safe ALP outer suburban seat.

  28. Kirsdarke:

    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 8:23 pm

    ‘@Mavis

    And after Victorian One Nation has everyone in Victorian Labor executed, what follows that?’

    State funerals for all of them, and brass busts for the brass, situated along Treasury Place. Incidentally, I think it was petty of Carroll to deny Andrews a bust.

  29. Kirsdarkesays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 6:44 pm
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/israeli-settlers-attack-palestinians-drawing-sharp-rebukes-20260830-p60sqd.html

    Dozens of Israeli settlers burst into a Palestinian man’s home in the occupied West Bank on Saturday, trapping and attacking people inside, the Israeli military and Palestinian witnesses said. It was the latest in a series of assaults by Israeli extremists that have drawn international condemnation.

    The attack took place near the Palestinian town of Qusra in the northern West Bank, where groups of Israeli settlers recently besieged the homes of several other Palestinians, including an American citizen. Violence has snowballed in the Israeli-occupied territory over the past several months, with Palestinians saying the Israeli authorities frequently look the other way.

    But the ferocity of Saturday’s assault drew a rare condemnation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has largely played down the attacks as the actions of a small minority.

    (…)

    Israel’s right-wing, pro-settler government has frequently argued that concerns about settler violence are overblown, and officials have repeatedly signalled their support for Israelis accused of attacks.

    But on Saturday, Netanyahu said the attackers were harming Israel’s reputation abroad, causing “immense harm to the law-abiding settler community” and damaging “Israel’s standing in the world”.

    Looks like BiBi is starting to get frightened by polling, the Likudniks appear to have taken a real turn against them this month.

    I don’t care what Israelis do anymore because they like India very much. 🙂
    Let them interfere in Australian domestic matters as much as they want.
    meherbaba should learn from Israeli people. 🙂

  30. Kirsdarke says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 8:23 pm
    @Mavis

    And after Victorian One Nation has everyone in Victorian Labor executed, what follows that?
    =============
    Libs are more likely to form gov’t, than One Nation.
    ON might pick up a few seats in rural areas and possibly on the metro fringe, but are unlikely to penetrate seats along Springvale Rd (ie: Eastern suburbs). Given the Legislative Council has region based seats, it’s more likely One Nation will jag seats in the Upper House.

    Something to look at down the track, but it might be best that the Victorian Upper House is elected on a statewide vote.

  34. Vensays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 8:32 pm
    procket_says:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 6:08 pm
    Heroic projection for LNP on 22 primary getting to 52 on 2PP

    Serves you right.
    Remember, If ALP goes, Greens go down even further and they won’t have any leverage with LNP-ON government.
    Keep bagging ALP to your hearts content. Greens will be collateral damage. I think you don’t care if Greens go down as long as ALP goes down

    My sincere apologies Sprocket.
    That post was not addressed to you. It was addressed to HBG that if L-NP -ON win Victorian election, he is concerned that , Victorian treaty would be abolished.
    You can see how elitist HBG is. He is not worried about Victorian people suffering under L-NP -ON government.

  36. Thank goodness for Newspoll. We can’t keep doing this every 3 weeks.

    Can someone dig up the numbers pls – I don’t have access to the Murdoch Oz.

  37. Mavissays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 8:49 pm
    Incidentally, I think it was petty of Carroll to deny Andrews a bust.
    _______________________
    It might still go ahead.
    Carroll would know if his arse was on fire.

    “Ben Carroll has admitted he has no idea how far along the controversial statue of former premier Dan Andrews is – or how much money has already been spent on it – despite announcing on Saturday that it was being dumped.

    The Herald Sun quizzed Mr Carroll about the status of the statue on Sunday with sources claiming the taxpayer-funded statue was all-but finished and would not be destroyed.

  38. nadiasays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 9:02 pm
    Loitering Mavis.

    About 3 weeks ago, Newspoll dropped around 8.15pm.

    We’ve just hit 9pm, but no newspoll as yet

    Is ALP finished? Will it fall any time soon? I am heart broken nadia. 🙁

  43. Labor still sub 30, One Nation back in front 🙁 , LNP still sub 20, Greens still in the teens

    Combined “majors” sub 50

    Business as usual

    Edit – KB with ON in front isn’t ideal

  45. Leroysays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 9:05 pm
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-one-nation-surges-past-labor-as-anthony-albanese-vows-to-defeat-dishonest-populists/news-story/1d0a82aec5b93c4f219669693f66c02b

    Primaries: ALP 29 (0) ON 30 (+1) L/NP 19 (+1) GRN 13 (-1) OTH 9 (-1)

    No TPP provided

    ALP is finished. Albanese is finished. Albanese should dissolve the parliament and call parliamentary elections now and hand over the lodge keys to Pauline Hanson.

  49. Hard Being Greensays:
    Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 9:08 pm
    Labor still sub 30, One Nation back in front , LNP still sub 20, Greens still in the teens

    Combined “majors” sub 50

    Business as usua

    Are you happy HBG(Lars)? Your dream of ALP being smashed is about to be fulfilled. 🙁

  50. ‘The prime minister has announced he will end the injustice of indefinite jail terms in this parliament in a major victory for victims of the scandal.

    Andy Burnham said he had taken a “common sense” approach to Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences, which he said he had “long-standing concerns” about.

    The Independent has long campaigned for all IPP prisoners to have their sentences reviewed, highlighting the plight of thousands still languishing without a release date.

    The action to address IPP comes as the government overhauls plan to release other prisoners early, including two of the killers of Pc Andrew Harper.

    “I was faced with a situation where people on those sentences who have more than served their time, not being released when others who’ve committed very serious crimes being released early,” he told the BBC.

    “The judgement I’ve made is the public, in my view, would prefer a situation where people who have served their time to be considered for release before those who haven’t.”

    The government will table legislation to terminate the sentences by the “end of this Parliament”, he added.

    Mr Burnham said although he has always taken a “tough on crime” approach, he had listened to the voices of families with loved ones convicted under IPP sentences.’

    – INDEPENDENT

    Burnham is showing he has a backbone. This is probably why Labour’s doing better in the polls than when Starmer was the leader.

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