Three days out from the state’s highly anticipated Secret Harbour by-election, The West Australian reports on a DemosAU poll that has One Nation up three points since June to 21%, with Labor steady on 33%, the Liberals down two to 21% and the Nationals up one to 4%, and the Greens steady on on 12%. A two-party preferred measure based on previous election preference flows has Labor’s lead over the Coalition out from 53-47 to 54-46. Roger Cook’s positive rating is down one to 34%, with neutral up three to 39% and negative down two to 27%; Basil Zempilas is down one to 30%, up two to 37% and down one to 33%; and Cook’s lead as preferred premier is out from 44-33 to 46-32. The poll was published August 6 to 25 from a sample of 658. Extensive breakdowns are featured in the full release that will shortly be published on the pollster’s website.
Nothing in the way of a poll has emerged from Secret Harbour, the closest thing being a straw poll of 120 voters conducted on the first day of early voting by The West Australian, which found 50% voting for One Nation, 27.5% for Labor and 12% for Liberal (and The Australian reported that “more than half” of those it asked there said they had voted One Nation). A similar exercise by The West Australian during last year’s state campaign overstated Liberal support over multiple seats by not less than 10 points and in some cases by more than 20.
How-to-vote cards are available on the Electoral Commission site. Ten out of 16 candidates offer preference recommendations: Libertarians, Australian Christians and independent Paul Howard all have One Nation second and Liberal higher than Labor; the Liberals have One Nation third behind Australian Christians; and only the Greens, Animal Justice and independent Peter D. Dunne are favourable to Labor.
It’s going to be a fascinating by-election on Saturday
I’m wondering if some Liberal voters will vote for One Nation, not because they want them to win but because they want to trigger a leadership challenge and Hastie to take over?
Yes HBG, it will be a very interesting by-election, if anything to give us all an indication of how the ON vote is going in metro Australia.
In S.A. they polled well in some Labor held metro electorates, but not enough to pick them up.
They polled well in Nepean (outer southern area of Melb), but Labor didn’t stand.
They didn’t put up a candidate in Stafford (QLD), and Labor didn’t put up a candidate in Farrer (although that’s regional not metro).
Difficult to assess who will win this seat.
I’m guessing both Labor & ON getting a primary in the 30’s, but from there onwards – who knows.
Regardless, looking fwd to Sat evening. 8PM kickoff PB time with the time zones.
Yes definitely an interesting by-election with national and state implications. Feel like it is a toss up – if it were a general election I’d be fairly confident of a Labor hold but voters may be sufficiently fed up to elect One Nation as a warning shot to the government.
Agreed, it’s set up for a protest vote. I’m dubious about reading too much into any result.
“They polled well in Nepean (outer southern area of Melb), but Labor didn’t stand.”
Therefore the important metric is the Liberal versus ON vote. Which was for primaries here 39% Liberal to 25% ON. Which is obviously much better then they historically get but much worse than they expected to get here. ON didn’t even make the 2CP here which was between the Liberals and a Teal type Independent.
ONP had a very good first few days on pre-poll but the PPVC is in the northern part of the seat which is probably a better area for them, the day vote from the southern mortgage belt area could be much better for Labor. Sounds like the Liberals are happy to sit on the sidelines, they might poll below 15%
I still don’t get why the Libs don’t want to fight. They exist to fight elections. Since 1944 and before that in other guises.
They have fought elections when they were bound to lose. And fought in by-elections because if nothing else the voters see you missing, may never return. And this is the case here.
I always think of the likes of the old Ted Mack or the modern teals, if you cede the seat once the locals will never be welded to you again.