RedBridge Group: Labor 29, One Nation 31, Coalition 22 (open thread)

739 thoughts on “RedBridge Group: Labor 29, One Nation 31, Coalition 22 (open thread)”

1. Of course there is massive amounts of rooftop solar in Postcodes 3029 & 3030. The building code requires a certain green rating for new homes and the easiest way to do that is rooftop solar. And as the vast majority of homes in those areas are new builds – last 20 years – then is going to be a lot of solar generation.

   Same thing with the other Victorian postcodes.

   I would assume the same thing for the others but I haven’t had to study the build regs in other states.

2. Jones’s trial was closed to all but accredited news organisations:

   ‘The virtual line between J and Jones’ barrister, Gabrielle Bashir, SC, slackens and pulls taut as she advances towards each of the inconsistencies she seeks to prove in his evidence. J is tense, eager and blinks often under the bright lights of the room where he is annexed. In the back corner of his room a court officer scrolls on a laptop.

   Bashir and J run through numbers and dates and events. She questions him about incidents and what he has said about incidents. As each line of questioning leads to a crescendo, the tapping of keyboards becomes more frenzied. Jones pulls his notebook and phone towards his chest, fusses with the bottom of his jacket, frowns and runs a finger across his brow. He settles his hands on top of his walking stick.

   The Crown interjects. The screens are made mute. J disappears from view.

   The lawyers argue over the questions. They argue over the follow-up questions. They argue over which answer refers to which question. They argue over whether the questions are unfair and they argue over whether the objections to the questions are unfair. The judge demurs. “In any event …”

   The trial is taking place in a small courtroom usually reserved for procedural matters where, in ordinary times, dozens of lawyers pile in and out to have their matters dealt with quickly, and more spill into the corridor.

   This trial is closed to all but accredited news , and during the breaks the hall is only filled with journalists grumbling that they cannot report on the content of the day’s proceedings due to the non-publication order.

   As the evidence rolls into the afternoon, Jones settles back in his chair. He screws shut his eyes, grazes his hand over his pate and pauses to inspect his finger before returning it to his lap.
   Perhaps he feels the day went well. After court he meets his legal team in the foyer, makes a remark and then rolls back on his heels in laughter.’

   – SMH

3. I think Jones knows that he’ll get the Pell treatment on appeal no matter what happens. That’s why he’s laughing.

4. New Texas polling

   In the Texas U.S. Senate election, Democrat James Talarico (47%) leads Republican Ken Paxton
   (45%) by 2 percentage points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 6% undecided.

   Talarico is viewed favorably by 46% of likely voters and unfavorably by 47%, and Paxton is viewed
   favorably by 39% of likely voters and unfavorably by 57%. Only 7% and 4% of likely voters don’t
   know enough about Talarico and Paxton to have an opinion of them, respectively.

   https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas+Statewide+August2026.pdf

   And you can see Talarico being interviewed here https://youtu.be/lvKJRNP31K8?si=cXI5oiAV6Solb5Mu

5. 

6. I’m guessing the Democrats can now finally have a decent chance at winning statewide in Texas for the first time in over 30 years.

7. The last time the Democrats won a Senate seat in Texas was in 1988.
   When the crunch comes in November, it’s doubtful that a two-point lead now will be enough, even though Paxton is worse than Cruz.

8. Yeah, while I’m optimistic for Talarico, I doubt he’ll get over the line. It’s Red Republican Texas after all.

   Plus Jasmine Crockett’s refusing to endorse him or let her apparatus help his campaign, so whatever he has now can be screwed over by Greg Abbott and lets Paxton win.

9. While IBAC found no evidence of blackmail, the extensive investigation identified that in 2016 a ‘back-room’ deal with Mr Marshall was authorised by the then-Premier to be negotiated by then-Special Minister of State Mr Gavin Jennings with assistance from then-Deputy Secretary at the Department of Premier and Cabinet Mr Tony Bates, to the exclusion of other key stakeholders including the CFA and then-Emergency Services Minister Ms Jane Garrett.

   IBAC found that the actions of the Premier, Minister Jennings and Mr Bates over this period were contrary to government policy, procedures, convention and their respective codes of conduct.

   IBAC’s special report details how during the course of the EBA negotiations, the government placed itself in a position where Mr Marshall was able to extract concessions from government, gain privileged access to ministers and exert extraordinary influence over government under the threat of industrial action and public exposure of the undisclosed deal.
   ________________________________
   Isn’t that just Politics?

10. And the last time that they won statewide ever before now was in the 1994 gubernatorial election.

11. Good to see the left stepping up in the US, the country needs a dose of democratic socialism to get it on the right track

    Ven re the right being united, see how that holds up if Tucker Carlson runs as he is suggesting he will

    Looking at the preference flows on Tally Room, as mentioned here earlier, in Croydon 38% of One Nation preferences went to the Greens. Or flowed through to the Greens at least

    I’m guessing some of that is “a pox on both your houses” vote

    I’ll be putting One Nation last where they belong

12. IBAC found conduct that enabled the politicisation of public appointment processes, undermined the effectiveness of accountability frameworks that exist to maintain the integrity of government processes and increased the risk of improper influence. In addition to the conduct identified above, further examples of concerning conduct identified include:
    ____________________
    Wow. They didn’t meet accountability frameworks.

    I suppose it’s good to have organizations like IBAC but if they can’t actually find corruption then their opinions aren’t worth shit.

    Provided there was no actual corruption it’s up to the People to decide if the government behaved appropriately.

13. The Age
    The corruption watchdog found Marshall had sought to secure the support of a crossbench MP by hiring their relative days before it was due for a vote in the upper house.
    In an intercepted phone call from June 2019, Marshall told a friend the MP was “100 per cent behind us … just to make sure we just employed their relative
    _______________________
    I think most of us who follow Victorian politics know who that Crossbench MP was.
    Don’t we Rex.

14. Taylormadesays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 6:39 pm
    The Age
    The corruption watchdog found Marshall had sought to secure the support of a crossbench MP by hiring their relative days before it was due for a vote in the upper house.
    In an intercepted phone call from June 2019, Marshall told a friend the MP was “100 per cent behind us … just to make sure we just employed their relative
    __________________________________
    Sounds like corruption to me. Why did IBAC then claim there was none?

15. nathsays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 6:27 pm
    ============================================

    While I think Marshall is nasty bit of work. I can’t see this as anything but Marshall going all the way to get the deal he wanted for his union and lobbying as much as possible to do so. We have rules to mark the boundaries of what is acceptable. I can’t see any evidence he went beyond that in his union deal.

    His treatment of Jane Garrett was terrible though.

16. Trump demands contractors rip out weeks worth of work on his helipad

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/8/4/800079632/community/trump-orders-his/

    Trump is again billing taxpayers for something he said others would pay for. It isn’t the only similarity to his botched reflecting pool reno. The administration agreed to a no-bid contract for the helipad because it was a rush job. Trump wanted the thing finished by September 24th. The day Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit starts.

    It is not going well.

    The Washington Post reports that weeks’ worth of work is being ripped out. The project looked like it was heading for completion. But then, what was once is now no more. The paper writes:

    ”
    They were starting to add the finishing touches in granite, laying out the lettering of the presidential seal along the edge of the pad. But then, on Sunday, photos showed that some of the lettering had been removed.

    Where it had said “Seal of the President of the United States,” only “eal of the” was left in place. By Tuesday, photos of the helipad showed all the granite letters were gone: It was back to what appeared to be bare concrete.”

    The problem? The site slants downward. However, it isn’t an operational issue. Helicopters can land on a slope. In fact, helipads often have a slight pitch to shed water. It turns out that Trump looked at his latest unapproved ‘improvement’ to the White House and pitched a fit that the helipad didn’t line up with the horizon.

    This error raises the question: Where were the renderings? Did no one present an elevation of the finished project? If they did, did Trump bother to look at them? And last, why does this keep happening? None of Trump’s DC projects have come close to the marketing.

17. Chris Bowen had a message for the Qld and NT govts today wrt their recalcitrance in cooperating with the feds and other states to mandate sensible data centre standards:

    Let me blunt though, it was not unanimous at the energy ministers’ council.

    Let me be equally frank. While I always prefer to work with my state and territory colleagues, the Commonwealth will not be standing by and letting a race to the bottom of states falling over themselves to attract data centres, at the cost to household bills, reliability or emissions.

    We will use all the powers available to the Commonwealth, including Commonwealth legislation, to ensure that Australian households and Australian energy reliability is put first: even if some states have different ideas.

    https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/speeches/speech-national-press-club-canberra
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6ngbNfcZ-w

18. Hard Being Greensays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 6:29 pm
    Good to see the left stepping up in the US, the country needs a dose of democratic socialism to get it on the right track

    Ven re the right being united, see how that holds up if Tucker Carlson runs as he is suggesting he will

    HBG
    Americans and MAGA don’t care about personalities like Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Alex Jones etc, who made money using Trump’s name once they are out of his orbit.

19. Andrews should sue Jess Wilson for defamation. He was the leader in the period that Wilson is saying Labor had “corruption in their DNA”, while providing zero evidence of it.

    “Isn’t that just Politics?”
    I look forward to the IBAC report on Gina Reinhart getting privileged access to One Nation, and The Murdoch rags co-operating with the Liberal Party. I’m sure there are loads of IPA stooges and Opus Dei cultists being employed across the Party and their propaganda outlets.

    “Sounds like corruption to me. Why did IBAC then claim there was none?”
    Did IBAC prove any of the following:
    * That the relative was ever hired to begin with?
    * That the MP knew the relative was hired?
    * That the MP asked for their relative to be hired?
    * That Marshall hired the relative because the MP asked for it?
    * That Marshall had informed the MP that they were going to hire the relative in order to secure the support of the MP?
    * That the MP, even if they did know, had changed or modified their support because of it?

    Hypothetically if you were an MP (or any kind of Government worker), under this presumed standard of yours I could make you corrupt simply by hiring someone you know or are related to.

20. nathsays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 6:45 pm
    Taylormadesays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 6:39 pm
    The Age
    The corruption watchdog found Marshall had sought to secure the support of a crossbench MP by hiring their relative days before it was due for a vote in the upper house.
    In an intercepted phone call from June 2019, Marshall told a friend the MP was “100 per cent behind us … just to make sure we just employed their relative
    __________________________________
    Sounds like corruption to me. Why did IBAC then claim there was none?
    =============================================

    Not sure what the 2019 phone intercept was about as UFU firefighting deal was in 2016. Possibly Marshall was spinning a BS story which didn’t fit the facts. So when IBAC investigated they could find no evidence that the relative was hired as claimed by Marshall. It is not illegal to tell a mate a BS story on the phone.

21. I do hold IBAC in higher regard than I do Stooges, so I will accept that the government behaved poorly. But that doesn’t mean much.

22. nathsays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 7:19 pm
    I do hold IBAC in higher regard than I do Stooges, so I will accept that the government behaved poorly. But that doesn’t mean much.
    ============================================

    Fair enough, besides the phone intercept claim by Marshall about the relative. Did IBAC find evidence that relative had in fact been hired? As newspaper article only quotes phone intercept but says nothing about if it actually happened. I would assume this is not something that IBAC would find hard to determine though.

23. Why has it taken so long for the police services to decide that an arson attack on a defence manufacturer is a potential terrorist attack? There was vandalism about Isreal and the Gaza war. That would make it politically motivated and an act of violence – the definition of a terrorist attack.

24. The Age
    The pattern that emerges in Richmond, one repeated throughout the life of the Andrews government, is how Andrews’ centralised decision-making at the expense of ministerial responsibility, silenced dissenting voices, blurred the distinction between public servants and political operatives, stacked public sector boards and ran his government with unabashed deceit.
    _______________________
    Chip coming in off the long run.
    I don’t think Andrews deserves a statue after all this.
    He is a very diminished figure. Still got the Chinese in his corner I suppose. He will no doubt try and make a buck out of them.

25. Is something automatically a terror attack because it is politically motivated?

    Genuine question.

    To me terrorism requires an attempt to terrorise the public, which is why black marketeers fire bombing tobacco shops isn’t terrorism either.

    But I daresay my internal definition isn’t followed by everyone.

26. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 7:37 pm
    Why has it taken so long for the police services to decide that an arson attack on a defence manufacturer is a potential terrorist attack? There was vandalism about Isreal and the Gaza war. That would make it politically motivated and an act of violence – the definition of a terrorist attack.
    ================================================

    Did we bring it up due to pressure by the USA to find examples of far left terror and this was the best we could find?

    “Last month US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted a summit in Washington DC calling for countries to collaborate on efforts to counter what was described as a growing threat of far-left terror.

    The summit was criticised by some as politically partisan, including by Democrats within the US, given it gave no similar regard to concerns about far-right terror.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-05/terrorism-police-investigate-arson-at-melbourne-defence-company/106997004

27. Large Fries will never accept that Dan Andrews did all that in the pursuit of a high quality Government that was returned multiple times by the people of Victoria, no matter how much mud and conspiracy theories the mainstream anti-Labor cheerleaders in the media attempted to throw at him.

    I’m sure Jess will be urged to do something about that wicked Dan Andrews if her L-Plate, lack of policy party are installed as part of a Liberal/One Nation hate coalition but if I were her, considering what the Liberals have been exposed for doing with Robodebt, Sports Rorts, Water funding, and what far-right Christian factions have done in other parts of the country, if Wilson really thinks it’s a good idea when she might be out the door after a few years of Liberal-One Nation chaos.

28. @Taylormade at 7:40pm

    I don’t think Andrews deserves a statue after all this.

    You know, it’s all coming across as a weird Freudian thing with you Liberals about the Dan Andrews statue.

    Kennett was the one who made it a thing, and it backfired on him when he lost in 1999, now with you lot it seems like something of an obsession to destroy the legacy of Dan Andrews.

29. Nobody gives a shit that Chip and his crew think that the way Andrews ran his government, which by and large looks like politics as usual from the descriptions, fails governance standards they have never applied to any Coalition government in their lifetime.

    Andrews being a strong decisive leader who took responsibility was what made him popular.

    If they had a smoking gun of corruption they would have headlined with it, so I have not been arsed to read the stories and give them their desperately desired clicks at a time I’m rather busy.

    No wonder it took so long for the report to come out if after all this time what I am getting from this thread is there’s just governance complaints and Marshall maybe hiring a relative of a crossbencher, not even a government MP.

30. Entropysays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 7:24 pm
    nathsays:
    Fair enough, besides the phone intercept claim by Marshall about the relative. Did IBAC find evidence that relative had in fact been hired? As newspaper article only quotes phone intercept but says nothing about if it actually happened. I would assume this is not something that IBAC would find hard to determine though.
    _______________________
    He was hired. Meddicks son. Animal Justice Party.
    Only for a 2 week placement, but in the weeks leading up to the vote.
    Meddick should have disclosed it according to Parliamentary rules but didn’t.
    But why he allowed it in the 1st place I have no idea. Wasn’t a good look.
    He came out with some bullshit about his son getting the job on his own merits.

31. An interesting strategic Senate move in deep red States.

    Now three, and potentially four, preselected Democrat candidates have withdrawn, leaving the race between Republican and an Independent.

    South Dakota
    Idaho
    Nebraska

    There is no primary in South Dakota on Tuesday, but there was a major development in that state’s Senate race: Julian Beaudion, the Democratic nominee, dropped out, clearing the way for an independent candidate to challenge Senator Mike Rounds, the Republican incumbent.
    …….
    Mr. Beaudion’s withdrawal from the race is the third this year by a Democratic Senate nominee in a red state, and in each case the withdrawal cleared the way for an independent candidate. The other states were Nebraska and Idaho.

    Some Democrats have also pushed for Alani Bankhead, the party’s nominee in Montana, to quit the race and clear the path for Seth Bodnar, an independent in that state.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/04/us/politics/julian-beaudion-drops-out-south-dakota.html

32. Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 7:47 pm
    Large Fries will never accept that Dan Andrews did all that in the pursuit of a high quality Government that was returned multiple times by the people of Victoria, no matter how much mud and conspiracy theories the mainstream anti-Labor cheerleaders in the media attempted to throw at him.
    ===================================================

    I assume under a Jess Wilson Government there will be no secret meetings with either unions on pay deals or companies on projects? It will all be lived streamed on the internet for everyone to watch in real time. If you believe that I have a bridge in Kerch to sell you. For this week only if you buy that bridge you get a Wildberries gift voucher too.

33. @Arky.

    I believe that Lenin said that the purpose of terrorism is to terrify.

    Terrorism is generally identified however as the use of violence for political ends, regardless of its effect on the public at large…

    After all, the public are soundly afraid of home invasions which are not political and might easily ignore criminal acts against a factory which could well be.

    The key from the perspective of counter-terrorism is whether or not the perpetrator(s) are ultimately trying to undermine the integrity of the democratic process / overall viability of the State to govern etc.

34. Taylormadesays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 7:55 pm
    Entropysays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 7:24 pm
    nathsays:
    Fair enough, besides the phone intercept claim by Marshall about the relative. Did IBAC find evidence that relative had in fact been hired? As newspaper article only quotes phone intercept but says nothing about if it actually happened. I would assume this is not something that IBAC would find hard to determine though.
    _______________________
    He was hired. Meddicks son. Animal Justice Party.
    =============================================

    So nothing to do with the Andrews Government at all.

    “Only for a 2 week placement, but in the weeks leading up to the vote.”

    Only 2 weeks, was it school work experience?

35. Does anyone know if at some point there’s going to be another federal MRP model from Redbridge?

36. Hey TM what about a running commentary on the ICAC in NSW which is uncovering real corruption?

37. Ven says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 7:00 pm
    Trump demands contractors rip out weeks worth of work on his helipad…
    This error raises the question: Where were the renderings? Did no one present an elevation of the finished project? If they did, did Trump bother to look at them?

    The reason is simple.. Liberace is President… or at least Trump has the same taste as Liberace

38. Taylormadesays:

    I don’t think Andrews deserves a statue after all this.
    He is a very diminished figure.
    ________
    How about a diminished statue. Say 3/4 of his actual height?

39. But the ears remain in full proportion.

40. According to AG department website:
    A terrorist act is an act, or a threat to act, that meets all of the following criteria:
    It is done with the intention of advancing a political, religious or ideological cause.
    It is done with the intention of intimidating the public, or coerce, or influence by intimidation, any government.
    It causes one or more of the following:
    * death, serious harm or endangerment to the life of a person
    * serious damage to property
    * a serious risk to the health or safety of the public
    * serious interference with, disruption to, or destruction of critical infrastructure such as a telecommunications or electricity network.

41. It’s seems all sorts of organizations, left, right and in between, influence governments and government policy. That is common and is just passed off as politics.
    Ordinary people only influence governments at election time and if polls go against the ruling party. I guess that is also just politics.
    Overall not particularly ethical if you believe governments are elected by and for the people. Has that ever really been the case?

42. @

    Three people I’ve known for decades who were entirely Greens aligned moved to ON in the past 12 months. Vaccine mandates was a driver for all three, and the inherent ‘overreach’ of the government is a trigger for them.

    It’s interesting the way antivax has bounced back and forth between political extremes.

    20? years ago I used to have a lot of beef with people on the left who were antivax and/or anti medicine and/or anti science to a large extent, which was coming from a place of distrusting Big Pharma and other big companies but taken way too far.

    Then that faded away as being hostile to science and medicine in favour of believing what’s convenient for you became a calling card of the right.

    But there’s definitely been elements in the far left where it never entirely faded away, and it doesn’t surprise me that they could easily cross over to the other side of the horseshoe.

43. It causes one or more of the following:
    * death, serious harm or endangerment to the life of a person
    * serious damage to property
    * a serious risk to the health or safety of the public
    * serious interference with, disruption to, or destruction of critical infrastructure such as a telecommunications or electricity network.
    =================================================

    While I think Arky has a point. Damage to three cars by fire and a bit of political graffiti could possibly considered “serious damage to property”? Depending where you set that bar.

44. I mean Arky raises a good point about the ambiguity of what counts as terrorism; at its core its about using violence and the subsequent fear of a populace to achieve your ends.

    What counts as violence, fear, what counts as enough of the populace area is where alot of governments have eroded freedoms for their own ends.

45. This survey of attitudes to all things Clean Energy is interesting, albeit the 3,151 participants were self selected.

    https://cleanenergysolutionsindex.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/2026_Clean-Energy-Solutions-Index_Report_V7_compressed.pdf

    Actually, there is a chart builder where you can filter by voting preference eg

    https://dashboard.cleanenergysolutionsindex.com.au/?_gl=1*rrjexo*_ga*MTQ0NzY4MzY2MC4xNzg1OTI1NDIx*_ga_JE45HL3690*czE3ODU5MjU0MjAkbzEkZzEkdDE3ODU5MjU5MjckajYwJGwwJGgxMjUyNzAzMDAz

    They did ask for political affiliation, though no significant detail other than this summary.

    

46. Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 8:21 pm
    It causes one or more of the following:
    * death, serious harm or endangerment to the life of a person
    * serious damage to property
    * a serious risk to the health or safety of the public
    * serious interference with, disruption to, or destruction of critical infrastructure such as a telecommunications or electricity network.
    =================================================

    While I think Arky has a point. Damage to three cars by fire and a bit of political graffiti could possibly considered “serious damage to property”? Depending where you set that bar.

    _________

    Judging what is terrorism is somewhat analogous to judging what is news. If they were your family’s/place of worship’s cars and the graffiti was about your family/place of worship, then you may feel different, perhaps? Proximity and all that.

47. This graphic from the Clean Energy Solutions Index is interesting:

    
    https://theenergy.co/articles/the-australian-diy-ethos-extends-to-energy

    All those negative stories from the media have an impact.

48. Yep as expected. A nothing burger.

    Recommend Taylormade watch proceedings in NSW where there is Bona fide corruption being exposed.
    ———+++++++++
    The Operation Richmond report said the investigation began in 2018 following a tip-off that Marshall “blackmailed or otherwise compromised” Andrews “to change his position on the CFA EBA”.

    But Ibac found no evidence of blackmail and did not substantiate the allegation, which both Andrews and Marshall denied.

    In a rare public statement on Wednesday afternoon, Andrews said the report found “no evidence whatsoever to to support the false and completely outrageous claims that I had been blackmailed to force a favourable outcome” for the UFU and its members.

    “These claims were baseless when they were made almost a decade ago, and they remain baseless today,” he said.

    Andrews said he acted in the public interest to resolve the “spiteful and dysfunctional enterprise bargaining dispute” that had “dragged on for years” between the CFA and the UFU.

    “Fire chiefs were spending more time in the Fair Work Commission than running their organisations. That was not acceptable to me or to the government when community safety was on the line,” he said.

    Andrews also defended the amalgamation of the fire services, saying it was done in the “best interest of community safety”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/05/ibac-report-daniel-andrews-victoria-government-firefighter-union-ntwnfb

49. Kirksdale,

    now with you lot it seems like something of an obsession to destroy the legacy of Dan Andrews.

    It’s become the only reason they get up in the morning.
    It’s laughably pathetic!

50. Describing it as a terrorist act might be an attempt to flush out the suspects. Perhaps they have some phones bugged or are monitoring people and seeing if they are communicating about the change in status.
    Or it might have been linked to the Sydney events which were orchestrated from overseas. Something has set the police/Intelligence community off about it.