RedBridge Group: Labor 29, One Nation 31, Coalition 22 (open thread)

One Nation records its best poll result in six weeks, as Labor slumps on various two-party preferred measures.

The Financial Review has its monthly poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research, which is somewhat at odds with recent trends in recording a two-point rise for One Nation to 31%, equalling their best-ever result the month before last, and the Greens slumping four points to 10%. Less unusual is a four-point rise for the Coalition to 22%, but it’s typically been accompanied by softer results for One Nation. Labor meanwhile is down a point to 29%.

Labor’s respondent-allocated two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 56-44 to 53-47, and it records what may be its worst result of the term in trailing the Coalition 52-48, after leading 54-46 last month. Using preference flows from the previous election (which involves extrapolating the 6.4% who voted One Nation to the 31% recorded in the current poll), a Labor lead of 55-45 last month becomes a 50-50 tie.

For leadership ratings, only net favourability is provided – I will hopefully be able to break this out into favourable and unfavourable later today. Anthony Albanese is down a point to minus 19; Angus Taylor is up three to minus six and Pauline Hanson is steady on minus 10. The three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese down a point to 32%, Pauline Hanson up one to 24% and Angus Taylor up four to 15%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1001.

UPDATE: Leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese down a point on favourable to 30%, up three on neutral to 19% and steady on 49% unfavourable; Angus Taylor is up three to 20%, up three to 31% and steady on 26%; and Pauline Hanson down one to 36%, up four to 15% and down one to 46%. Also featured in the poll are one off personal ratings for Gina Rinehart (27% favourable, 27% neutral, 36% unfavourable) and John Howard (43%, 28% and 21%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

739 thoughts on “RedBridge Group: Labor 29, One Nation 31, Coalition 22 (open thread)”

Comments Page 15 of 15
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  1. How did IBAC determine that this fake and I’m guessing anonymous tip was legitimate and worth wasting 8 years and millions of dollars investigating?

    What’s stopping me calling IBAC an claiming that Jess Wilson has been blackmailed and compromised by Victorian “Reformers” or the IPA or Gina or Pauline to change her positions?

  2. Taylormade,

    I don’t think Andrews deserves a statue after all this.
    He is a very diminished figure.

    Despite your insistence, the stature will be erected, probably at three times the size, pigeons will be assigned to the stature and that Andrews smirk will remain to cause havoc to his detractors well after “lights out”.

  3. nathsays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 7:19 pm
    I do hold IBAC in higher regard than I do Stooges, so I will accept that the government behaved poorly. But that doesn’t mean much.

    Fancy a politician behaving poorly!

    The queues to see the pigeons on the statue will be significant in their own right.

    And the queues watching the tossers watching the stooges and vice versa, will be worth the watch.

    Dan Andrews and that dismissive smirk will remain.

  4. nathsays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 9:32 pm
    Goll, your job is to keep the Andrews statue well polished. You may kiss it and fondle it.

    And particular attention to the oversized ears.

  5. Griffsays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 8:42 pm
    Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 8:21 pm
    It causes one or more of the following:
    * death, serious harm or endangerment to the life of a person
    * serious damage to property
    * a serious risk to the health or safety of the public
    * serious interference with, disruption to, or destruction of critical infrastructure such as a telecommunications or electricity network.
    =================================================

    While I think Arky has a point. Damage to three cars by fire and a bit of political graffiti could possibly considered “serious damage to property”? Depending where you set that bar.

    _________

    Judging what is terrorism is somewhat analogous to judging what is news.
    =================================================

    So would vandalism of windfarms by the anti-wind farm movement be terrorism? It is obviously a politically motivated movement.

    An example of that:
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/police-called-in-as-latrobe-valley-wind-farm-site-vandalised-56880/

    If it is would this be considered a call to terrorism?

    “Bolt: Time to tear down those ugly turbines”
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fnews%2Fopinion%2Fandrew-bolt-free-our-beautiful-countryside-from-these-metal-monstrosities%2Fnews-story%2F50a93cb06b2da76367f13fe2f6fcac24&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=LOW-Segment-2-SCORE

  6. A Melbourne version of the Statue of Liberty just with Dan Andrews holding the flame, a brilliant monument in his triumph over the Cookers.

  7. Terrorism is an innately political and deeply subjective term that tells you a lot about the scared pathetic speaker and less than nothing about the alleged terrorist.

    It means someone the speaker/s is terrified of and wishes to deny a range of basic human rights to and / or impose significantly disproportionate sentences, based not on the offence but the level of fear and ignorance of those using the term.

  8. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 9:17 pm
    Describing it as a terrorist act might be an attempt to flush out the suspects. Perhaps they have some phones bugged or are monitoring people and seeing if they are communicating about the change in status.
    Or it might have been linked to the Sydney events which were orchestrated from overseas. Something has set the police/Intelligence community off about it.
    ===================================================

    Alternatively the Trump corrupt empire would slap 10% more tariffs on us if we didn’t look to be taking left-wing terrorism seriously. So we took some vandalism possibly done by drunk hippy’s and elevated to left-wing terrorist status to keep them happy.

  9. A Melbourne version of the Statue of Liberty just with Dan Andrews holding the flame, a brilliant monument in his triumph over the Cookers.

    Or maybe something like the Colossus of Rhodes… surely a suitable location could be found in Port Philip Bay or the mouth of the Yarra River…

  10. WeWantPaul says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 9:50 pm
    Terrorism is an innately political and deeply subjective term that tells you a lot about the scared pathetic speaker and less than nothing about the alleged terrorist.

    It means someone the speaker/s is terrified of and wishes to deny a range of basic human rights to and / or impose significantly disproportionate sentences, based not on the offence but the level of fear and ignorance of those using the term.

    ________

    That is just a little unhinged. Bad day at the office?

  11. Steve777says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 10:04 pm
    A Melbourne version of the Statue of Liberty just with Dan Andrews holding the flame, a brilliant monument in his triumph over the Cookers.
    ====================================

    Or maybe something like the Colossus of Rhodes… surely a suitable location could be found in Port Philip Bay or the mouth of the Yarra River…

    ==============================================

    If it was for Jeff Kennett I would of suggested Mud Island.

  12. @Steve777 at 10:04pm

    Or maybe something like the Colossus of Rhodes… surely a suitable location could be found in Port Philip Bay or the mouth of the Yarra River…

    Something like the Titan of Braavos in Song of Ice and Fire.

  13. You know even if Jess Wilson wins the election in November, I think there’s a non-zero chance that Jeff Kennett would try to take over from her in order to stake out the remaining days of himself as Premier to qualify for that statue.

  14. “If it was for Jeff Kennett I would of suggested Mud Island.”

    On second thoughts that would be little unfair on the sea birds. So possibly a better site for Jeff would be Coode Island between the acrylonitrile and benzene storage tanks.

  15. I met a traveller from a progressive land
    Who said: Two vast and redshirt-less arms of stone
    Stand in the St Kilda dunes. Near them, on the sand,
    Half raised, a smug visage lies, whose smile,
    And wrinkled lip, and sneer of bike boy cover ups,
    Tell that its taxpayer funded sculptor, well those passions read
    Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
    The media that mocked them and the landslides that fed:
    And on the pedestal these words appear:
    “My name is Danmandias, premier of premiers:
    Look on my level crossing removals, ye Mighty, and despair!”
    Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
    Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
    The lone and level sands stretch to the Port Melbourne container terminal.

  16. @Mavis

    Now the question remains, what does Haley Stevens do now for the General election against the Republican Mike Rogers? Support Abdul El-Sayed or Sabotage him?

    I reckon it’s the latter.

  17. That is just a little unhinged. Bad day at the office?

    Lol great day at the office, the bar by the pool is pumping, the staff are excellent and there is a lovely breeze as we wait for dusk.

    It is a long considered postion expressed strongly so even the stupidest reader can understand. Not at all surprising you don’t.

    Edit: the beer is excellent, the nachos tasty.

  18. Kirsdarkesays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 10:17 pm
    You know even if Jess Wilson wins the election in November, I think there’s a non-zero chance that Jeff Kennett would try to take over from her in order to stake out the remaining days of himself as Premier to qualify for that statue.
    ======================================

    More likely a Jess Wilson Government will amend the legislation so Jeff now qualifies and possibly putting in an exclusion clause for Dan.

  19. WeWantPaul says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 10:29 pm

    That is just a little unhinged. Bad day at the office?

    Lol great day at the office, the bar by the pool is pumping, the staff are excellent and there is a lovely breeze as we wait for dusk.

    It is a long considered postion expressed strongly so even the stupidest reader can understand. Not at all surprising you don’t.

    __________

    As it is apparent I touched a nerve, go forth and enjoy your position. Looks comfortable 😉

  20. nathsays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 10:33 pm
    I wish a group of citizens would gather together and gather up all those statues and dump them in the Bay where they belong.
    ===============================================

    Including Bob Rose and Lou Richards?

  21. Ever since the COVID shutdown I have been getting email from a Victorian cooker named Monica Smit who runs an outfit called Reunite Democracy.

    Lately she has been registering political parties and recruiting members to make them viable. Parties so far have been “Climate Action Now”, Save the Environment Party”, Muslim Votes Matter”, and “Free Palestine”

    The intent is opposite to what the name suggests.

    Today there is another party, “I am Voting To Avoid The Fine”

    This paragraph is pasted from the email;

    “Three out of the four parties are scheduled to get registered, but there’s one more that needs more members. It’s called I’M VOTING TO AVOID THE FINE. It might seem like a strange name, but it’s actually a genius way to get votes from people who vote simply to avoid the fine. When they see that name on the ballot paper, I bet they’ll vote for it. Then we can send those votes to One Nation.”

    It just goes to show the degree to which right wing loons will go to take over the country. They are as bad as Chump.

  22. Lately she has been registering political parties and recruiting members to make them viable. Parties so far have been “Climate Action Now”, Save the Environment Party”, Muslim Votes Matter”, and “Free Palestine”

    It’s probably an operation to harvest preferences and direct them to the right-wing parties. Alternatively, an operation to flood ballot papers to increase the informal vote.

  23. It’s called I’M VOTING TO AVOID THE FINE. It might seem like a strange name, but it’s actually a genius way to get votes from people who vote simply to avoid the fine. When they see that name on the ballot paper, I bet they’ll vote for it. Then we can send those votes to One Nation.”
    ================================================

    This is getting very close to fraud. Is Pauline/ON in on doing it with her?

    “From AI
    Yes, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) enforces explicit rules to prevent misleading party names, which were significantly tightened under the 2026 Electoral Act amendments.”

    I can’t see how some of those party names listed would pass this rule.

  24. Labor should adjust the laws to ban a person or their proxies from registering more than one party, or being member of more than one party for the purposes of the 750 person minimum membership eligibility, along with conspiracy to circumvent those laws in order to create multiple parties. I would also suggest making the 750 person minimum also require a significant financial outlay as a “founding” member.

  25. “I can’t see how some of those party names listed would pass this rule.”

    From what i just read it seems they can currently. This really needs changing as totally misleading though.

    “The Victorian Electoral Commission said there was no provision in the state’s electoral law to prevent parties from adopting misleading names.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-30/avi-yemini-free-palestine-political-party-concerns-experts/106618082?fbclid=IwY2xjawTgFJJwZG9mAWV4dG4DYWVtAjEwAGJyaWQRMXpYWVphemFaSmpKY1FOUGNzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeOnpBCe3dcD4pe-RlSzdR8TKZyKV0KigWUbV4UUV3Pfb1BLJIEaqIIy3E0rE_aem_ygbACItAiCd4pQppSFsgnA

  26. Entropy says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 10:12 pm

    Steve777says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 10:04 pm
    A Melbourne version of the Statue of Liberty just with Dan Andrews holding the flame, a brilliant monument in his triumph over the Cookers.
    ====================================

    Or maybe something like the Colossus of Rhodes… surely a suitable location could be found in Port Philip Bay or the mouth of the Yarra River…

    ==============================================

    If it was for Jeff Kennett I would of suggested Mud Island.
    ______________________

    Better still, Easter Island

  27. Parties so far have been “Climate Action Now”, Save the Environment Party”, Muslim Votes Matter”, and “Free Palestine”

    Any party with those names that preferences One Nation, the Liberals or Nationals above Labor and the Greens is fraudulent, whether or not it is doing something that is actually illegal.

  28. Entropy at 11.10pm.

    “The Victorian Electoral Commission said there was no provision in the state’s electoral law to prevent parties from adopting misleading names.”

    That’s right, after the first lot I emailed the Victorian Electoral Commission and that’s what they told me as well.

  29. Bit of West Aussie late night bludging here: AC Milan vs Inter Milan just pulled 52k people on a Wednesday night in boring old Perth. Both the West and Ch9 were playing along with the Lib “oooh they won’t say how many tickets they’ve sold! It must be a failure” scare story. Gonna have to rejig tomorrow’s front page now – that stock photo of Rita Saffioti looking sulky will have to wait for another day. Maybe put Harley Reid on there for the second time this week? (Not an exaggeration, sadly.)

Comments Page 15 of 15
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