With nearly every pollster in the game having pitched in last week, a quiet period looms. The weekly Roy Morgan should be along later today as always, and DemosAU is about due for one of its big-sample MRP projections. On the broader electoral front, there is the following to report:
• The Weekend Australian had the quarterly Newspoll detailed breakdowns from its four polls conducted in April, May and June. The state results show movement towards One Nation and away from Labor clearly evident in Victoria and South Australia, less evident in New South Wales, and not at all evident in Queensland and Western Australia, with Labor gaining three points in the former case. Breakdowns by education are distinctive in that One Nation is up six among those with technical qualifications, but effectively unchanged for everyone else. Voting intention is barely changed among 18-to-34s, whereas One Nation are up significantly among the older cohorts. Presumably inspired by the budget tax measures, the breakdowns now include housing tenure, as commonly featured by other pollsters. To commemorate the occasion, I have added tabs for these results to the BludgerTrack poll data features (keep clicking the “more” tab until you see them).
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published an interim report from its routine inquiry into the last election, which notably focuses on aggressive behaviour at polling booths. The majority report cites data on public complaints received by the AEC, and recommended that “election participants” be required to register and observe a code of conduct. The AEC, whose bailiwick currently ends six metres from the entrance, would enforce this code within a “campaign zone” around the polling place, in which signage limits would also apply. The report argued that much of the offending behaviour “seemed to involve third parties”, and while it didn’t name names, committee chair Jerome Laxale told parliament while tabling the report of “an assault by third parties identified in submissions like the Plymouth Brethren and Advance”.
• Certainly the Plymouth Brethren angle had been divined by the committee’s Coalition members, who headlined their dissenting report “less inquiry, more hyperpartisan witch hunt” – the latter having been directed against “Australians based on their religious faith”. While acknowledging aggressive behaviour was an issue, their own volunteers having been “targets for intimidation by unions and other third party organisations on polling booths for many elections”, the Coalition members forcefully rejected the recommendations as burdensome, open to abuse and possibly unconstitutional. Also in the Coalition report was a call for the early voting period, already truncated from three weeks to two before the 2022 election, to be reduced to one week, and for the AEC to be “more strident on ensuring that people accessing pre-poll are doing so for one of the reasons prescribed in the Act”.
• The official determination of how many seats each state and territory will be entitled to at the next election, which is calculated a year into each parliamentary term, will be made later this month. Antony Green has done their work for them based on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics population data, and concludes there will be no change from the status quo, Queensland having recorded not quite enough growth to get it over the line for a thirty-first seat. Queensland will nonetheless get a redistribution under the seven-year rule, which is now overdue after being twice delayed: first because of the election, and then because there was no point commencing the process until it was clear how many seats the state would have. Proposed boundaries were published in March for South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, final boundaries for which are expected later this month.
• Wendy Askew has brought forward the retirement she recently announced for the end of her term in mid-2028, now to take effect in a “few weeks”. This means two vacancies are now available for Tasmanian Liberal Senate seats, together with that created by Jonathan Duniam’s surprise retirement announcement last month.
The good news on the Telstra issue is probably won’t happen again for another 1024 weeks (19.6 years). The error seems to be in the counter for “Weeks” in the GPS signal being held as 10 bit number in the past. It has happened elsewhere in the world….
Russia is no longer the ‘petrol station to the world’, at least for diesel:
“Ukraine war briefing: Russia bans diesel exports as refinery attacks trigger gas shortages and price spikes:
Moscow moves to support domestic fuel market as drivers face hours-long lines amid intensifying Ukrainian strikes. What we know on day 1,597”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/09/ukraine-war-briefing-russia-bans-diesel-exports-as-refinery-attacks-trigger-gas-shortages-and-price-spikes
Antisemitism envoy Jillian Segal has told the royal commission that complaints of bias against the ABC and SBS could be better handled by an independent oversight committee.
Segal suggests an “independent group of people” examining the ABC’s reporting on Israel and Palestine would be a better structure than relying on the broadcaster’s ombudsman.
___________________
Right, Jillian. Then the government’s response should be to bring the ABC and SBS under the umbrella of an expanded, demonstrably independent commission which would encompass ALL media organisations – including the likes of News Ltd, Seven, Sky News, etc. ACMA would be disbanded.
Any takers?
But Iranian, North Korean and Chinese military aid to Russia, combined with Russia itself tripling its own military budget from about 2.5% of GDP pre-2022 to about 7.5% today (more than any NATO country) is A-OK and not belligerent at all:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/09/ukraine-war-briefing-russia-bans-diesel-exports-as-refinery-attacks-trigger-gas-shortages-and-price-spikes
Plus do I detect a hint of nuclear sabre-rattling there? Is Russia saying that NATO merely giving arms to Ukraine means Russia feels itself to be entitled to launch a nuclear first strike? What bunkum. This is pure BS designed to frighten the gullible in the West into turning their backs on Ukraine.
newy boysays:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:54 pm
TM – can you please clarify whether Rebecca Thistleton lives in Armstrong Creek, all of which is in the Victorian state district of South Barwon, or not? This is central to the credibility of your post.
_______________________
Probably a rental on a short term lease.
A bit like Nardella’s caravan.
I know nothing about the candidate in question, but it is fairly common for people in urban areas to move from suburb to suburb and therefore find themseves living in a different electorate to the one they were in four whole years ago.
WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 1:08 pm
You need to differentiate between AI’s physical presence & requirements & how AI functions.. at a physical level they aren’t “rouge scum”, Australian, State & local government planning laws control them.. loop holes for fast tracking exist for all development over a certain value..
If the AI bubble bursts once the smoke clears Australia will still have the investment in renewable energy.. whatever happens the country appears to be a winner.. if AI doesn’t kill us
Taylormade
Given unsubstantiated insinuations are all good with you I’d have to suppose you are the admin of that FB group, and control a bunch of bots to make comment on your posts
So, you don’t know, then?
For all we know, she’s been living in Geelong for years and its the inner Melbourne seat she was parachuted into four years ago.
Our daughter is year to year in her position as a primary school teacher in the public system in Sydney.
Lack of certainty is another thing to worry about along with parents.
I did once stand for a seat I didn’t live in – but all of the services our town relied on were located in the electorate I was running for, so they were far more important to me than the ones in my ‘own’ seat.
A couple of boundary changes later, and we’re in the seat I ran for…
(Absolutely no one picked it up at the time, but technically I was only 500 metres out, in an area which did switch between the two electorates fairly regularly…)
TM – so that’s a “Yes, she lives in the electorate she’s running in”, contrary to what you said.
I think the data centres are partly for sovereignty because quite a few laws don’t like data going overseas, like health data.
It’s not like we have cheap power.
Jillian Segal problem is she is trying to stop criticism of an apartheid state trying to eject the owners, and there is a limit to what chants of antisemitism will cover.
I don’t think Russia’s windy threats about NATO are convincing anyone of anything other than Russia being worried about its position. It’s only the tankies that buy into the story of poor put upon Russia and evil NATO and Ukraine, or that the world will end if NATO keeps supporting Ukraine.
The boy who cried wolf found his lies stopped working after he did it twice, Russia has been crying wolf for years on end at this point and hasn’t yet come up with a new story
BBC trying to be serious interviewing count binface.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XO3FwWfPLc
Arky, Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 2:32 pm:
Arky – spot on. Yet, neither the US nor any European country has launched conventional missiles against Russian military positions in Ukraine. Nor have they enforced a strict no fly zone for Russian aricraft, missiles and drones across Ukraine. If they had done so, Ukrainian units would definitely have pushed those decimated Russian units out of Ukrainian territory by now, and many Ukrainian civilian (and military) lives would have been saved.
So why, if the US and Europe sincerely want Russia’s invasion and occupation to be stopped and Ukraine’s territorial integrity restored, and as many Ukrainian lives as possible to be saved, has the US and NATO not launched such conventional strikes, if not out of fear of a nuclear first strike response by Russia? In my view, it is this overestimation of the likelihood of such a nuclear first strike by Russia which has caused the West to be so timid in its confrontation with Russia.
@Diogenes
Yes, this is becoming a big deal. I have a project in an African country at the moment where we’ve hit a stumbling block because they want all data kept in country and my org uses AWS and there’s no AWS in Africa (aside from South Africa, which is not an improvement).
Most of the local reporting on data centres is poor and is not improved once regurgitated by Claude. This article is one of the better ones:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/green-energy-giants-see-155b-data-centre-boom-as-win-for-net-zero-20260708-p60dmz.html or https://archive.is/dh4Ff
Not necessarily the part about clean energy investors welcoming new demand, that is obviously self-serving. However, Mr Merzian is correct that if done right new data centres could hasten the energy transition and lower electricity bills for all.
As touched on by Mr Toscano, for this to happen we need the states to cooperate so that the federal expectations on electricity (secure new and additional renewable generation and/or storage, cover their share of network costs, enhance grid flexibility and not make electricity more expensive) can be inserted into the National Electricity Law. For constitutional reasons, this occurs via the SA parliament and requires the agreement of all the states.
As you would expect, Qld are being difficult. If we had public interest journalists, they would be reporting on this and asking the Qld premier and energy minister difficult questions. Similarly, journalists should stop the catastrophising and ask their state water ministers about their plans to legislate closed loop cooling systems.
It’s a crazy notion, I know, but if the media practiced public interest journalism maybe they could win back the trust of the public.
Get caught making shit up again Taylormade?
Our electricity prices compare pretty well with other OECD countries:
https://energycouncil.com.au/oecd-price-comparison-how-do-we-stack-up/
Since this was published, business prices have dropped by >25% in some distribution areas.
Not much change last month in New Zealand according to the monthly Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll.
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/july26_pollnztu
Labour: 31.5% (-0.7) for 41 seats.
National: 30.5% (+0.4) for 39 seats.
NZ First: 10.8% (-0.6) for 14 seats.
Greens: 10.4% (-1.1) for 13 seats.
ACT: 6.9% (-0.9) for 9 seats.
Maori: 3.4% (+0.3) for 4 seats.
Others: 6.5% (+2.5).
A NAT-ACT-NZF Coalition would win an estimated narrow majority with 62 seats, with LAB-GRN-TPM getting 58 seats.
Also that “Others” vote is getting fairly significant. The Centrist “Opportunities” party might be approaching the 5% threshold of qualifying for List seats.
Oh, there’s also Preferred Prime Minister figures reported in the poll.
Chris Hipkins (Labour): 19.2% (+2.1)
Christopher Luxon (National): 19.1% (+0.2)
Winston Peters (NZ First): 11.8% (-1.0)
David Seymour (ACT): 5.1% (-1.2)
Chloe Swarbrick (Greens): 4.6% (-3.5)
Country going in the…
Right direction: 39.2% (+5.5)
Wrong direction: 45.5% (-7.0)
It seems the Luxon government’s popularity has got something of a boost going into the election in November.
Segal gives the distinct impression that she has it in for Aunty & the SBS. One off her complaints is that both have not covered other (or covered enough) comparable world hot spots. The ABC especially has heard this song many, many, many times before; it will survive intact.
I think Segal would like an independent oversight body of Israelis for the ABC.
This report from over a year ago suggests otherwise.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/31/why-are-so-many-sea-changers-moving-to-geelong
BK:
Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 3:02 pm
Or a panel from Sky after Dark
Australia needs a Count Binface to run against Hanson just as he is running against Farage in the UK..
LotY : the reason we didn’t see a fall during covid because of government spending and central bank’s loose monetary policies and banks going easy.
So… the same as everywhere since forever? And now that banks are being more restrictive on lending, because of the negative gearing and capital gains discount changes, it will have less government spending on investment housing, and so therefore house prices and rents decrease? Which is exactly what everyone has been saying will happen and has absolutely nothing to do with immigration.
When your mind is sucked in to the whinge-vortex, it really makes it difficult to think straight, huh?
Man, I am glad Albanese and his government have enough smarts not to go anywhere near the “everyone is a whinger” rhetoric being pushed by some here on PB.
Whingers whinge. This, and other news, at 11.
Liberal Senator Kerrynne Liddle has hit back at criticisms of her integrity, stating she chose to “prioritise the privacy” of a grieving family after claiming an elderly South Australian died because they could not connect to triple-0 during Wednesday’s Telstra outage.
In a statement, posted to Facebook, Liberal Senator Kerrynne Liddle said her office had received news of a “tragic death” during a life-and-death emergency. The person, she claimed, had been unable to contact emergency services.
Is whinging about whingers a form of whinging?
Maybe we could have Sir Bogan WheelieBin running against Joyce?
Asha: “Is whinging about whingers a form of whinging?”
I don’t know. Ask a whinger. Now you’re whingeing about being identified as whinger. The trick is to not be one. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
Pi:
I just did. Their answer left a bit to be desired.
I might go have a whinge about it.
The Greens and ON ORTA form a single party and call it The Whingers and Whiners Party. This would reflect their shared core value: talking everything down all the time.
BW:
I think you should run for the leadership.
Pi can be your deputy.
Does Liberal Senator Kerrynne Liddle and her ‘grieving family she can’t disclose the identity of’ = Wisconsin Senator Joe McCarthy and his ‘list of 205 communists in the State Dept’?
Maybe ‘Miss Yesterdays New Fish and Chip Wrapper’ versus Pauline Hanson?
IMO there is a general lack of proportionality in pretty well he whole MSM when it comes to the middle east.
One section gets stuck into Israel on a disproportionate basis.
The other lot gets stuck into muslim middle eastern countries on a disproportionate basis.
I don’t think we can expect Segal to have a valid answer for this because it is evident that Segal is not disinterested when it comes proportionality.
Pi
Government’s tax changes will push up rents, and by government spending, I am referring to infrastructure spending. During COVID the government gave out generous welfare payments to individuals and businesses.
If the government cuts immigration, it would reduce demand for rentals.
When an economy is shrinking, there is often a fall in immigration and population size adding to downward pressure on property prices and rents, this was observed in Melbourne’s biggest property crash, both that depression and the Great Depression were made worse by government austerity.
Assuming that someone did die while trying to dial 000… and why wouldn’t that happen… Liddle’s immediate politicization of it is hardly helpful.
Speaking of, it is still true that:
Pauline Hanson opposes steelmaking jobs in Newcastle.
Pauline Hanson opposes a pay rise for Aussie workers.
Pauline Hanson opposes job security for Aussie workers.
Pauline Hanson thinks Aussie workers are lazy and don’t deserve decent pay and conditions.
Quite frankly Asha, if it’s triggering a bunch of whiny little gits like you, it’s working.
It has. By a quarter of a million migrants. And it didn’t.
LotY: “Government’s tax charges will push up rents”
Your story needs moar dragons.
LotY: “During COVID the government gave out generous welfare payments to individuals and businesses.”
So like negative gearing and the capital gains discount.
LotY: “If the government cuts immigration, it would reduce demand for rental”
It would increase the cost of construction and services, and therefore increase inflation, and therefore increase rents. Even by your own words you recognize that loose monetary policy is what causes housing to increase in cost. You’re just stuck sucking at the teat, so you want your government handouts back.
The Pauline and Larissa Whingers and Whiners Movement.
Boerwar
From a high level and in a market with low rental vacancy rates.
In terms of banning fossil fuel exports, next cab off the rank will probably be the US. It will do so in order to try and put downward pressure on gas prices going into the mid terms.
The supply chain issue is that the US exports substantial amounts of unprocessed oil. It imports processed oil products.
Australia had better hope that the gas/refined products trade offs negotiated by Albanese et al, hold for the next three months.
Because with the renewed shut down of the SoH and the diminishing capacity of russia to export oil the current graph lines showing a steep decline in terrestrial reserves will hit the bottom of various tanks some time within the next eight weeks.