Monday miscellany: Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and more (open thread)

Newspoll breakdowns show uneven patterns across the states; Labor and the Coalition at loggerheads over aggressive behaviour at polling booths; redistribution latest.

With nearly every pollster in the game having pitched in last week, a quiet period looms. The weekly Roy Morgan should be along later today as always, and DemosAU is about due for one of its big-sample MRP projections. On the broader electoral front, there is the following to report:

• The Weekend Australian had the quarterly Newspoll detailed breakdowns from its four polls conducted in April, May and June. The state results show movement towards One Nation and away from Labor clearly evident in Victoria and South Australia, less evident in New South Wales, and not at all evident in Queensland and Western Australia, with Labor gaining three points in the former case. Breakdowns by education are distinctive in that One Nation is up six among those with technical qualifications, but effectively unchanged for everyone else. Voting intention is barely changed among 18-to-34s, whereas One Nation are up significantly among the older cohorts. Presumably inspired by the budget tax measures, the breakdowns now include housing tenure, as commonly featured by other pollsters. To commemorate the occasion, I have added tabs for these results to the BludgerTrack poll data features (keep clicking the “more” tab until you see them).

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published an interim report from its routine inquiry into the last election, which notably focuses on aggressive behaviour at polling booths. The majority report cites data on public complaints received by the AEC, and recommended that “election participants” be required to register and observe a code of conduct. The AEC, whose bailiwick currently ends six metres from the entrance, would enforce this code within a “campaign zone” around the polling place, in which signage limits would also apply. The report argued that much of the offending behaviour “seemed to involve third parties”, and while it didn’t name names, committee chair Jerome Laxale told parliament while tabling the report of “an assault by third parties identified in submissions like the Plymouth Brethren and Advance”.

• Certainly the Plymouth Brethren angle had been divined by the committee’s Coalition members, who headlined their dissenting report “less inquiry, more hyperpartisan witch hunt” – the latter having been directed against “Australians based on their religious faith”. While acknowledging aggressive behaviour was an issue, their own volunteers having been “targets for intimidation by unions and other third party organisations on polling booths for many elections”, the Coalition members forcefully rejected the recommendations as burdensome, open to abuse and possibly unconstitutional. Also in the Coalition report was a call for the early voting period, already truncated from three weeks to two before the 2022 election, to be reduced to one week, and for the AEC to be “more strident on ensuring that people accessing pre-poll are doing so for one of the reasons prescribed in the Act”.

• The official determination of how many seats each state and territory will be entitled to at the next election, which is calculated a year into each parliamentary term, will be made later this month. Antony Green has done their work for them based on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics population data, and concludes there will be no change from the status quo, Queensland having recorded not quite enough growth to get it over the line for a thirty-first seat. Queensland will nonetheless get a redistribution under the seven-year rule, which is now overdue after being twice delayed: first because of the election, and then because there was no point commencing the process until it was clear how many seats the state would have. Proposed boundaries were published in March for South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, final boundaries for which are expected later this month.

• Wendy Askew has brought forward the retirement she recently announced for the end of her term in mid-2028, now to take effect in a “few weeks”. This means two vacancies are now available for Tasmanian Liberal Senate seats, together with that created by Jonathan Duniam’s surprise retirement announcement last month.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,489 thoughts on “Monday miscellany: Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and more (open thread)”

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  1. Open Electricity have a new feature in their Facilities section. In addition to generation, price and CO2 emissions they now have data on other pollutants. For example, the Stanwell coal generator in Qld, which is scheduled to run until 2043:


    https://openelectricity.org.au/facility/STANWELL

    This data was always available at the National Pollutant Inventory, but it wasn’t user friendly.

  2. Former prime minister Scott Morrison concedes his mistake in the Covid crisis, saying his legal campaign against the closure of the West Australian border was a political “disaster” and reveals he has changed his mind about the border policy of WA’s then Labor premier Mark McGowan. In his interviews for my book The Twilight of Exceptionalism – The Liberal and Conservative Era 2013-22, Mr Morrison said he now believed closing the WA border was a sensible move – although his opposition at the time was critical in Labor winning four seats in WA, allowing the West to underpin the Albanese majority at the 2022 federal election.
    The former PM said he had been encouraged to take action by two WA colleagues, Mathias Cormann and Christian Porter. “It was a massive mistake. But Mathias and Christian advised me to do it,” he said. “Greg (Hunt) said to exercise caution, but he was a lone voice. At the start there was no pushback from any Western Australians in our cabinet. “But I knew within a short time it was a disaster. I went to work with Mark (McGowan) to fix it. I can’t blame the Labor Party for using that against me. I mean, why wouldn’t they? And I don’t hold it against Mark either. So yes, it was a disaster. I don’t think we would have lost as many seats in WA as we did.” While Mr Morrison later withdrew, the damage had been done. It was Mr Morrison’s worst mistake in the politics of Covid because it had the most lethal direct impact – turning WA from a Liberal stronghold into a Labor on at the election that destroyed the Morrison government.

    But Mr Morrison’s reassessment goes far beyond the High Court case. He now agrees with Mr McGowan’s decision on the border, an extraordinary rethink. “I have a different view now. In the first few weeks and months of the pandemic we didn’t really talk about borders,” he said. “We had closed the international border, but what did that mean internally? “We didn’t give that enough thought because, ultimately, I think the West Australian border made a lot of sense. It didn’t disrupt the national economy. The border was in a remote area. The borders between Victoria and NSW and between NSW and Queensland were a completely different issue.”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/scott-morrisons-mea-culpa-on-covid-error-that-contributed-to-election-rout/news-story/13641c97e587c203d5923c8fbbe189d2?amp

  3. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 11:05 am
    Iran launches a missile and drone attack on Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Here we go again.

    If your able to, you’d be made now not to insulate yourself from the flow on effects of this instability, by investing in household solar, battery and an EV.

  4. Meanwhile Jillian Segal continues to be the gift that keeps on giving;

    Apparantly Gaza is over reported, the reporting isnt fair, and Segal reckons their should be a group in charge determining if the coverage is fair (likely based on the usual bollocks).

    Its ok if we complain about this fuckup right?

    Or is it just whinging…

  5. Bizzcan: “rent growth is high because migration is too high”

    Then why did rent go up during covid when immigration went to zero? Perhaps your continued simplistic perpetuation of this meme is the thing that requires a bit of reflection? Seems nothing more than “muh imgrants” to me, and all you’re doing is carrying the drinks for white nation simpletons.

  6. Pisays:
    Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:08 pm
    Bizzcan: “rent growth is high because migration is too high”

    Then why did rent go up during covid when immigration went to zero? Perhaps your continued simplistic perpetuation of this meme is the thing that requires a bit of reflection? Seems nothing more than “muh imgrants” to me, and all you’re doing is carrying the drinks for white nation.
    _________________________________________
    Exactly, everyone knows immigration lower rents.

  7. It lowers the cost to build a house, yes. Because without immigration everything gets more expensive, especially construction.

  8. We get 7 million tourists a year. They have to stay somewhere.
    During Covid they were gone.
    Our outgoing tourists mainly leave empty homes while they go overseas.

  9. Socrates says:
    Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 9:03 am
    Final thoughts on Telstra and various flow on outages yesterday. The Telstra network outages were nationwide. Yet the (long distance) trains kept operating in NSW and Qld but not Victoria. What is the explanation of that?

    NSW was affected, particularly the main southern line beyond Campbelltown and the Hunter line from Newcastle to Maitland. This would have stopped long distance trains along those routes. Sydney-Canberra trains cancelled according to Canberra Times.

    According to Hun article yesterday, V/Line CEO said there is a Telstra – Australian Rail Track Corporation agreement which explains why more than one state was affected.

  10. The fun bit is that Farage and BinFace will be alone on the stage when results are announced.

    BinFace should propose a candidate’s debate.

  11. Miskalsays:
    Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:07 pm
    Meanwhile Jillian Segal continues to be the gift that keeps on giving;

    Apparantly Gaza is over reported, the reporting isnt fair, and Segal reckons their should be a group in charge determining if the coverage is fair (likely based on the usual bollocks).

    Its ok if we complain about this fuckup right?

    Or is it just whinging…

    No, as per Asha, who I think did not read what I posted and its context regarding New York poll, it is bordering on anti-Semitism.

  12. AI investment… EYE WATERING
    Australias investment compare to the US on a per capita basis

    Claude:
    Australia’s per capita data centre investment dramatically outpaces the US. Here’s the breakdown:

    Per Capita Comparison

    Country 2024-2025 Investment Population (2025) Per Capita Investment
    Australia USD 6.7 billion ~26.5 million USD 253 per person
    United States ~USD 14-20+ billion ~335 million USD 42-60 per person

    While the US still receives significantly more absolute investment dollars, Australia’s much smaller population (26.5 million vs 335 million) means the per capita concentration is extraordinarily high. For every Australian, USD 377 is flowing into data centre infrastructure, compared to roughly USD 90–150 per American.

    This underscores Australia’s strategic importance as a regional AI and cloud computing hub, despite representing only a fraction of the global population.

  13. When the Greens Government happens houses will build themselves.

    They will have to because doing the hard yakka of actually building a house can always be left to someone else.

  14. From the Guardian.

    You can tell a lot about someone from the company they keep.

    Hanson records podcast with far-right activist Tommy Robinson

    The UK far-right activist Tommy Robinson has described Pauline Hanson as one of the “bravest lady’s

    sic

    on the planet” and “hopefully the next leader” of Australia after recording a podcast with the One Nation leader.

    Robinson posted an image of himself in conversation with Hanson to his X account on Thursday, which ended with the line “podcast coming soon…”

    The sit-down comes just weeks after Nine Entertainment severed ties with its highest-paid presenter, Karl Stefanovic, after he interviewed and embraced Robinson.

  15. On Sarah Henderson’s ‘retail field test’ of 000 yesterday, Gemini AI said this:

    Q: Is it really a Shadow Minister’s job to personally oversee system reliability in their portfolio area? What about a Shadow Transport Minister? Are they obliged to ride the train network every day ‘testing’ for late or cancelled trains? Is a Shadow Health Minister obliged to go around every public hospital ED ‘testing’ triage times?

    You have hit on the exact absurdity that has made this story a massive target for satire and political pushback.
    When your hypothetical scenarios are laid out, the logical flaw in Senator Henderson’s “I was just doing my job” defense becomes painfully obvious.
    In the Australian Westminster system of government, no, it is absolutely not a Shadow Minister’s job to personally, physically conduct live-fault testing on public infrastructure.

    The analogies hold up against her defense:

    The Real Role of a Shadow Minister
    The role of a Shadow Minister is systemic oversight and policy development, not field engineering.
    a) Their job is to grill the actual Minister in Parliament, demand answers in Senate Estimates, calling for inquiries, and propose better alternative policies.
    b) They are meant to hold the government to account using data, official briefings, and whistleblower information—not by personally clogging up the very system that is failing to see if it’s broken.

    Why Her Analogy Fails Under Scrutiny
    If the public accepted Senator Henderson’s logic—that holding a portfolio gives you a unique legal pass to personally “test” public systems under stress—the entire government apparatus would collapse into chaos:
    a) The Shadow Transport Minister does not need to ride a train to “test” for delays; they look at the performance data published by the transit authority or interview impacted commuters.
    b) The Shadow Health Minister doesn’t sit in an Emergency Department triage chair pretending to have a broken arm to “test” the waiting times. They look at the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare data, consult with the Australian Medical Association, and talk to hospital staff.

    The Technical Arrogance of the “Test Call”
    The final flaw in her defense is that she is not a telecommunications engineer. Even if a Shadow Minister wanted to check if the 000 system was working, a retail “test call” from a single mobile phone tells you next to nothing about a national network failure.
    Network engineers test 000 infrastructure using complex, closed-loop diagnostic software and coordinated pings that do not require an operator to answer a phone. A politician dialing the number on an iPhone during a live blackout is not “gathering data”; it is a political stunt dressed up as an administrative duty.
    Ultimately, her colleagues are defending her because that is what political parties do during a media crisis, but your point stands: if any other citizen or shadow politician used that logic to interfere with public services, they would be rightly laughed out of the room—or handed a court date.

  16. Facebook – Geelong Name and Shame

    Shame on Labor Candidate for South Barwon who is seat jumping and not a local. At the 2022 State election she was the Labor candidate for Melbourne now she is the candidate for South Barwon. And she is a former staffer of Daniel Andrews. South Barwon deserves better than wannabe politicians wanting a seat in parliament.
    _______________________
    She’s not getting much love in the comments.
    Liberals need to get their skates on with their preselection.

  17. I thought Israel was doing a great job of creating a negative picture of itself.

    Segal has said the ABC is adding to the conflation of Jewish identity with the state of Israel by “putting stories on the record that are more negative than positive about Israel, and not covering the other side”.

    She said:
    Somebody needs to do a review of the holistic reporting of a major issue like the war, because my contention is that we are dealing with this new form of antisemitism… and if we have our trusted media, for all the reasons that I’ve described, perhaps not being as accurate as it should be about the Middle East, and putting stories on the record that are more negative than positive about Israel, and not covering the other side, we are adding to the conflation, and we should do something about that.

  18. Sceptic, are you able to explain why data centre investment in Australia is so high? I was just looking at a NSW Government statement on economic growth in the state, which also pointed to the very high data centre investment in Australia, it seems particularly in Sydney. What makes Australia so attractive? Our energy cost aren’t particularly attractive versus elsewhere in Asia.

  19. She also happens to live in Armstrong Creek, which last time I looked was in the South Barwon electorate.

    So was your post a whinge or just made up like most of them.

  20. So I’m curious what is the positive side of hostages being sexually assaulted by IDF people?

    The positive side of a young child being shot in the head?

    Perhaps the positive side of a whole lot of Palestinian doctors desparately needed, being held as hostages, without even the farcical military injustice that sometimes window dresses these acts of evil, and beaten while held as hostages.

    Just to pick a few recent reported cases, what exactly is the positive side?

    Seems to be a really stupid extension of the idiotic idea that balance in journalism is more important than accuracy. The old two sides of it is raining outside rather than a journo sticking their head out and window and just publishing the truth.

    Very unsurprising she is looking for false balance rather than truth.

  21. TM – can you please clarify whether Rebecca Thistleton lives in Armstrong Creek, all of which is in the Victorian state district of South Barwon, or not? This is central to the credibility of your post.

  22. Taylormadesays:
    Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:34 pm
    Facebook – Geelong Name and Shame

    Shame on Labor Candidate for South Barwon who is seat jumping and not a local. At the 2022 State election she was the Labor candidate for Melbourne now she is the candidate for South Barwon. And she is a former staffer of Daniel Andrews. South Barwon deserves better than wannabe politicians wanting a seat in parliament.
    _______________________
    She’s not getting much love in the comments.
    Liberals need to get their skates on with their preselection.

    I’ve never had Facebook. What am I missing ?

  23. The Wombat says:
    Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:45 pm

    I’m relying on Claude, however it appears Australias renewable energy policy is at the heart of the investment, especially with Federal gov policy requiring AI to enter into renewable energy & grid investment agreements prior to building the data centre.. everyone is a winner except QLD.

  24. WWP – Jillian Segal is showing herself to be a ‘false both sides’ merchant of the lowest order. Thank God for Ukrainian Australians that her remit doesn’t extend to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I feel very sorry for Palestinian Australians having to navigate a public discourse policed by her.

  25. I asked about Anthropics plans.. even more eye watering..

    Scale and Significance

    This is extraordinary for Australia—the 1.4 GW requirement is equivalent to almost the entire existing Australian data centre industry combined.
    investing.com
    The company issued confidential tender documents (RFPs) to major Australian operators in March 2026, with shortlisted bidders meeting Anthropic executives in Canberra in April.
    investing.com

    Anthropic opened its Australian office earlier in 2026 and is also building its internal data centre team alongside its existing cloud provider partnerships (Google, AWS, Microsoft).
    DCD

    Key Challenges

    While the industry views this as a “turning point” for Australia’s AI sector, there are practical hurdles: energy supply certainty, grid connection speed, planning approvals, and land availability will be critical to whether the investment proceeds at full scale.
    capitalbrief.com

    This announcement underscores why Australia has become the second-largest destination for data centre investment globally—even hyperscaler AI companies are now competing directly to secure capacity here.

    Paulin will be slashing her wrists…

  26. Pi
    Higher immigration increases rents unless there is more supply than demand, the reason we didn’t see a fall during covid because of government spending and central bank’s loose monetary policies and banks going easy.

  27. zoomster @ #1247 Thursday, July 9th, 2026 – 10:54 am

    ….the original ‘problem’ was that teacher placement was run by a centralised agency, so schools had no say over staffing at all.

    The NSW system would solve this – a budget for staffing which (theoretically) allows for each teacher being paid the maximum, but the decisions around filling positions being made at the local level.

    The NSW system is not, I repeat not, as you say. The school principal is allowed to make one in every six full time teacher decisions. I repeat, one in six. All others are made by the NSW Dept of Education via an opaque points system.

    Permanent teachers are also allowed to take an unlimited period of ‘leave without pay’, renewed monthly, during which time their position is held open for them.

    My younger daughter is stuck in a 3 days per week contracted position for four years because she accepted an offer before she had finished her secondary teaching masters degree, without being informed of the implications. She never knows from day to day whether she will have a ‘casual’ day to fill the remaining two days.

    The NSW teacher allocation system is a shambles. The Department communications and feedback system is completely broken, and many teachers are stuck in positions that they hate, filled with anger and frustration. Procedures for handling disruptive children vary wildly between, and even within schools. Altogether, being a public school teacher in NSW is a poor career choice.

  28. MOU with Iran is about “permanent ceasefire”.
    Now that is over. You cannot trust Trump even with a document, which he himself signed.

  29. Ven:

    Why is everyone after Platner when Trump and many other Republican politicians did much worse?

    The GOP being pieces of shit doesn’t excuse anything that Platner (allegedly) did.

  30. Given the nature of data centres surely having them is a liability more than a benefit?

    These clowns do not obey the law in the USA and they will have much much less respect for Australian law.

    Do local governments have the power to regulate these rogue scum?

  31. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:55 pm
    I’ve never had Facebook. What am I missing ?
    _______________________
    It has these Name and Shame groups. Usually people have a go at a local cafe or restaurant over bad service or overcharging.
    Someone had decided to have a crack at the new Labor candidate.
    An ex staffer to Daniel Andrews on her CV was a trigger for many of the subsequent comments.

  32. Rising anti-semitism is indeed a real problem, but how the hell does one do positive stories on Israel in this day and age?

    The problem isn’t the reporting, it’s the idiots who blame ordinary people for the contemptible actions of their government. And, in the case of Israel, a much wider global diasporia that has even less influence on what leaders on the other side of the world choose to do that is also copping this unjustified blame.

  33. So it may be then that becoming a global data centre hub may actually finally represent a way we can, in effect, sell our renewable energy to the world. I’m not sure we’ll get much more out of it, but if we can sell them lots of power, i suppose that’s got to be good for the economy.

  34. Rex:

    I’ve never had Facebook. What am I missing ?

    Nothing worthwhile.

    I’m not talking about the thing about the Labor candidate, I mean in general.

  35. Even the centrist dems being pieces of shit doesn’t justify the alleged behaviour.

    It is particularly bad of him when someone in the mainstream media ran a similar headline, but without any real substance in the story. If he knew the allegations were coming and let people wrongly conclude that story was a stitch up it is just terrible.

    Of course we should not assume those making the allegations are lying and I do not do so they allegations should be investigated and justice applied.

    It should not be forgotten that the dems put up such a bad candidate, this guy even after similar early allegations, was adjudged better. No doubt they will put up someone truly awful, but in different ways now and lose.

  36. I wonder how many Palestinian or other voices expressing support for Palestinian people and Palestinian homeland appear in media associated with Jillian Segal and the Executive Council of Australian Jewry?

  37. Taylormadesays:
    Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 1:10 pm
    Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 12:55 pm
    I’ve never had Facebook. What am I missing ?
    _______________________
    It has these Name and Shame groups. Usually people have a go at a local afe or restraurant over bad service or overcharging.
    Someone had decided to have a crack at the new Labor candidate.
    An ex staffer to Daniel Andrews on her CV was a trigger for many of the subsequent comments.

    Yeah nah not sure I need that stuff.

    No social media, except for YouTube premium and Pollbludger for as long as William puts up with me.

  38. Why am I not surprised that Taylormade is the kind of person who spends their time on “name and shame” Facebook groups.

  39. American prestige have a great discussion on anti-Semitism on YouTube.

    Also and as a surprise to me the guests on Ezra Kline talking about a form of two state solution in the last week or so were excellent also.

  40. Rex:

    Reddit is worthwhile if you find the right subs.

    In general, however, I agree that keeping a healthy distance from social media platforms is the right call.

  41. yabba

    Soz, only going by what the DP told me.

    Absolutely know your daughter’s pain – had two separate stints as a long term casual, where the teacher I was replacing was on WorkCover, so theoretically could return any day. And been stuffed around when co-teaching with a permanent who kept changing how many days a week she was going to work, which meant that I lost/gained classes with very little notice.

    But I was outlining a system which I thought would work better (for any school system) than either the centralised system which used to exist in Victoria and the purely school based one which exists now.

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