Two federal polls this evening show improved results for Labor, with The Australian reporting its primary vote at 33%, up three points on three weeks ago, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down one to an all-time low of 17%, and the Greens up two to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor takes a solid hit, down four on approval to 31% and up six on disapproval to 51%. The question was posed of Pauline Hanson for the first time, with results of 46% approval and 49% disapproval. Albanese’s lead over preferred Taylor on prime minister is out from 44-38 to 47-36, while a three-way result has Albanese on 49%, Hanson on 31% and Taylor on 20%. When those favouring Taylor were then asked to choose between Albanese and Hanson, and the uncommitted excluded, Albanese records a lead of 57-43.
Respondents were asked which of three considerations loomed largest in their vote choice, with One Nation supporter being distinctive in breaking 38% for “they understand people like me”, compared with 13% or 14% for the other parties, and being less likely to choose “they have clear and realistic policies” (42% compared with 54% to 61%) and “the leader’s character and values” (19% compared with 23% to 31%). The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1235.
The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll is the first poll in a while that doesn’t have One Nation leading on the primary vote, although the gap between them and Labor is well inside the margin of error. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 30%, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens up two to 14%, their best result from this pollster for the term. Labor’s two-party leads are substantially increased: 56-44 over One Nation and 54-46 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, in both cases out from 51-49; and 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows, out from 52-48.
The three-way preferred prime minister question also records movement favourable to Labor, with Anthony Albanese up two to 33%, Pauline Hanson down two to 23% and Angus Taylor down three to 11%. Albanese’s favourable rating is up two to 31%, with neutral down two to 16% and unfavourable down one to 49%; Taylor is down four on favourable to 17%, up five on neutral to 28% and up one on unfavourable to 26%; and Hanson is down three on favourable to 37%, down three on neutral to 11% and up seven on unfavourable to 47%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1006.
Griff
Yep!
@Confessions
Yeah, agreed on that. If something like that had been done to Trump, as much has his brain has been turned to soup, he’d at least have enough showbiz experience to recover and make it part of the act for his MAGA cult audience.
Pauline’s mistake was to just ignore it and continue on as her bovver boys ripped up the poster as she continued regardless.
Also unhelpful to her was that the so-called elite media tried to cover it up for her and blatantly act on her side for the past couple of weeks, that seems to have set off a lot of peoples’ bullshit sensors.
I think one of the reasons the GetUp banner didn’t do as much harm as people fretted it would is that we’re used to such activist stunts focusing on left-wing causes or using “activist-speak”, whereas that one went straight for the hip pocket in basic terms anyone can understand.
When I heard about it before learning what it said, my fear was it was going to say that “Hanson is a racist” (or wtte) or just be a wall of text. So, I am pleasantly surprised.
I don’t know how much of an effect it had at the end of the day but I don’t think it’s bad optics.
Asha
I think they were lucky. The stunt (which I personally laughed along with, while disagreeing with) could easily have backfired.
Wat:
Yeah, I thought the same thing when I first heard about it. The original description of the stunt that I read was something like “GetUp protesters interrupt speech”, which made me imagine several caricatures of inner-city lefties climbing up on stage to yell at Hanson rather than a funny banner being unfurled.
Hanson is down ten to net -10 in Redbridge/Accent, not steady, she was previously net 0 (43-43).
I think the problem with Hanson was why do the press conference you just gave labour attack material for them literally you gave them material to attack you with also kos said one nation does have have a base level of support but that’s around 17 to 15% the rest of them well the true believers
That GetUp! stunt has to be one of if not the biggest political own goal in history.
For One Nation to go from being on the cusp of forming minority government to Labor being back in landslide territory in just a week is just an extraordinary fall from grace for the party.
It’s always hard to tell how much traction this sort of thing is getting given the extent to which social media algorithms ensconce us in our own political bubbles, but I have noticed more than a few clips of Hanson’s more embarrassing moments during the NPC address making the rounds, a few of which were messaged to me by relatively apolitical friends.
Of course, it is very possible the clips of that speech being seen on other corners of the internet present a much more flattering picture of Hanson. But I do think that regardless of how it has been taken by her base, she has now provided Labor with some remarkable fodder for attack ads closer to the election.
I see four factors influencing these two polls:
1. Hanson’s claim that paid maternity leave is a crock; later retracted, but it was too late;
2. The Get-Up banner at her NPC appearance, which was succinct & powerful;
3. Being bosom buddies with Australia’s richest person, not the type of mate
for the so-called workers’ friend; and
4. Albanse didn’t panic; instead, he gave her enough rope.
I predict that polls due out this week will be similar. She peaked too early.
Douglas and milko
Are there dodgy deals and favourable quid pro quo deals going on in the construction industry. Of course, this has been a feature not a bug from day dot. Is it only happening in Victoria. Of course not.
Builders subcontractors union delegates, smoothing out deals and the like. But 15 billion dollars lost due to corruption.
Nothing to date has shown anything approximating this level of financial skullduggery.
Tonight’s 60 minutes was talking about thousands of dollars being paid to Gatto, he has been a fixer for decades. Everyone knows what his role is and how he makes his matter negotiating deals.
It’s all getting stupid.
Thanks Kevin. I’ve rewritten that whole section now I’ve got the full results:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rOOiOYRu3EH5BsnlsCOKShS-Ma5DPE_S/view
Asha honestly I still think it was stupid of her to do that conference like you literally give labour info of what you going to do and they have two years to make some brutal attack ads like what was she thinking like honestly I think Labor would still do well in polling because the budget probably people looked at it again when it’s not as bad as it is
Evening all. Very promising poll results for Labor confirming their ability to stick to and deliver the budget reforms.
After two weeks of lies, division, and resentment, and Hanson’s woeful NPC performance, these polls are nothing less than what Angus and Pauline deserve.
I am relieved at these numbers. Only two polls but the trends are significant. We might have seen peak One Nation.
I think the Liberals could just about implode on these PVs. Nervous Liberal MPs might soon start talking to ON about switching brand.
Pauline Hanson burst into the spotlight about a month or so before the March 1996 Federal election, over 30 years ago, when she was disendorsed as the Liberal candidate for blue ribbon Labor seat once held by Bill Hayden. She’s been a public figure ever since, with waxing and waning levels of attention. Definitely not shiny and new.
As for the GetUp banner, I said at the time I thought it was a bullseye.
It was painful for Hanson because it was true.
Sorry to bring it back to Nazi Germany, but can you imagine the effect it would have if Hitler was barking on about bringing prosperity to the German People while a banner slowly descended behind him saying “I brought back Slavery on you so I can enrich myself like a Kaiser”?
Obviously he’d have his Gestapo execute everyone involved, but to those that saw it, well, depending on the time of his rise to absolute power, that could have been pretty problematic for him, well, assuming it was broadcasted live anyway.
Re Bill Hayden, he died less than three years ago at the age of 90.
Here’s something I found while fact-checking:
https://catholicleader.com.au/news/former-atheist-and-political-leader-bill-hayden-baptised-at-age-85-at-st-marys-church-ipswich/
Thomas:
Yeah, I wouldn’t go that far.
These are encouraging numbers, sure, but still just two individual polls years out from an election, with most of the movement (at least on voting intention) within the margin of error.
The economy is still in a perilous state, inflation and interest rates remain an albatross on the government’s back, none of us know how all the chaos in the Middle East is going to play out, and there’s all manner of potential scandals and black swans and general “events” likely to come in the next two years.
It’s much too early to celebrate.
My earlier prediction for the next election still stands: Labor to win somewhere between 10 and 100+ seats.
You know, Albo’s personal ratings may not be very good, but managing near 50% on PPM in a three-way contest actually seems pretty impressive to me in the present circumstances.
Oh, another reason, her view of multiculturalism. Ditto Taylor. Pretty dumb, given we’re a nation of migrants.
Bill may have been having an each way bet there.
Yes, I thought that was just outright ridiculous.
I missed this one earlier. Okay, small sample size and all, should taken with a pretty big grain of salt, but still, that is an… interesting figure.
On his own admission, Albanese has always been underrated.
UK Labour unable or unwilling to argue the case for migration has gone some way to fu&$ the UKs future .. ON wants to do the same here
Lates Patrick Boyle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mogiYAtfn7w
One issue that has come out of Hanson clearly is limiting abortion rights. I am a high school teacher and it is the one thing that a few soon to vote teenage women have highlighted. They were outraged. I know it’s not a sample but this is an issue that could be significant for this cohort.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/06/28/with-time-running-out-trump-digs-changing-midterm-election-rules/
From WB’s lead-in:
Similar trend in Britain. At this rate, the Greens could surpass the Coalition. You’d better work those phones asap, Andrew, H., and please don’t have as your deputy “High Taxing” Hume. I wonder what Ley’s thinking right now?
Had a very stoned American dude try to convert me to Christianity a couple of months back by introducing me to the concept of Pascal’s Wager.
I find the very idea of hedging ones bets on the afterlife rather strange. Either you believe or you don’t. Surely, if God exists, he would be able to tell if one is legitimate in their faith or just faking it to avoid going to hell. It’s a pretty crappy supreme being that can get tricked by a mortal.
The Age 27/06
Business records leaked to this masthead and 60 Minutes by Gatto network insiders confirm several Big Build subcontractors are still paying Gatto, a self-styled “mediator and arbitrator”, large sums two years after Allan publicly vowed to stop such conduct.
_______________________
Shows how useless Allan is.
OZmikey:
Being overtly anti-abortion is never a vote winner for the right. Katter the Younger’s interventions in the last Queensland election may not have stopped Crisafulli from becoming Premier, but likely played a part in denying him a landslide victory.
And like with paid parental leave, this isn’t just something woman care about. There’s many a guy out there not super keen on the idea of being saddled with a child for the rest of the life after a drunken hook-up.
Shades of the ’80s “Joh for Canberra” farce:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/pauline-and-joh-for-pm-a-new-story-from-an-old-tale-in-fantasyland-20260616-p607c2.html
If Gatto (or his ‘network insiders’) is bignoting himself like that maybe he wants to see a liberal government elected. (Mmm lobster). Is any of that corroborated cause I see it as self-interested and untrustworthy without it?
Mavis:
Joh for Canberra was before my time. (In fact, I would not even be born until the following year.) Did he and the Nationals ever actually end up polling at levels that suggested he could have any hope of winning government? I always got the impression it was much more of flash-in-the-pan kind of thing that imploded pretty quickly and mostly just had the result of fucking over Howard’s chances in the ’87 election.
Asha
To my knowledge no. Joh was popular at the time in Qld (the corruption had not yet been exposed). He imagined this would translate to national popularity, and was very wrong.
Part of his appeal in Qld was to bash “the southerners” while demanding more money from Canberra. He was blind to how this made him look outside of Qld.
But yes, it did seem to derail Howard in the 1987 election.
From the previous thread.
Douglas and Milko @ #530 Sunday, June 28th, 2026 – 9:01 pm
I could be flippant and say that they might have been taught something, just not how to think. But that would be unfair. I have a lot of respect for lawyers and accountants. They’ve helped me, they work hard, and often with thankless clients. Perhaps lawyers and accountants are taught an established set of rules, and how to wield them to get to a ‘solution’. Mostly they work. I still get confused when an accountant tries to explain something that I think ought to be simple.
One thing that learning physics (and engineering) teaches you is to first understand the underlying mechanics and magnitude of a new problem. Perturbations come later. (Like the spherical cow.)
Well, according to Newspoll from back then, there was this big change.
21 September 1986
Coalition: 50%
Labor: 40%
Democrats: 9%
Others: 1%
Then the Joh for PM campaign started in January 1987.
3 May 1987
Coalition: 48% (-2)
Labor: 46% (+6)
Democrats: 4% (-5)
Others: 2% (+1)
That campaign accelerated into June.
7 June 1987
Labor: 53% (+7)
Coalition: 41% (-7)
Democrats: 4% (=)
Others: 2% (=)
With those numbers Bob Hawke called an early Double Dissolution election for 11 July and the results were:
Labor: 45.9% (-1.6 from 1984)
Coalition: 45.9% (+0.9)
Democrats: 6.0% (+0.5)
Others: 2.2% (+0.2)
Still, the main damage to the Coalition was done in Queensland. They lost Fisher, Forde, Hinkler and Petrie to Labor there, as well as Northern Territory (when it was just the one seat) and Denison in Tasmania.
In return, Chisholm in Victoria and Lowe in NSW flipped from Labor to the Liberals.
The Double Dissolution also weakened Labor in the Senate, losing a seat each to the Nationals and the “Vallentine Peace Group” in WA.
But, Hawke seemed to strike while the iron was hot. Those September 1986 numbers would have been a landslide loss, but a 13% recovery in less than a year when Howard and Joh were fighting each other, those were numbers to make a good gamble on.
OZmikey
I think you are a first time poster here, and if so, a hearty welcome from me.
I can remember being a soon to vote young woman, years 11 and 12 in high school, eons ago, but the idea of becoming pregnant scared the shit out of all of us. And we weren’t even having sex!
We murmured to each other about abortion – I remember saying to a friend of mine that if I conceived out of wedlock, I would have to have an abortion, because of the shame to my parents, but it would be such an awful thing to do, that I would never ever have another child.
And as I said, none of us were even sexually active!
But at least in 1976 we kind of got the idea that an abortion was possible. For girls even half a decade behind us, that was probably not the case.
So for Pauline Hanson to send senior high school girls back to the days of “if you get pregnant, you wear the consequences” must seem draconian.
For those following along at home, why would a 16 year old girl who is not sexually active be frightened of falling pregnant?
It was definitely a bit of a boogey man thing – be a bad girl, and bad things will happen to you.
But at the age of 16, we were definitely starting to pair off with the boys. But no sex!!
But by around 20 years of age, some of us gals were not so strict about the no sex thing. So, if pregnancy happened, then that was part of the relationship.
But we never forgot how a pregnancy in our teens could have completely derailed our lives.
The Joh for Canberra campaign was astroturfed by a coterie of wealthy Queensland businessmen, who didn’t want to pay tax and who were keen to get rid of the “socialist” Hawke Government. The campaign never gained any real traction. It collapsed in a heap after a few months, its main result being to cruel any chance of the Howard-Sinclair led Coalition winning the 1987 Federal election.
Asha:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 10:35 pm
He was pulling in about a 25% of the vote. But he got caught out by Hawke calling a DD election. He was never in with a chance, as he didn’t even have a seat in the House.
– SMH
The old bastard should’ve gone to jail, but there was a young National Party
sympathiser on the jury, resulting in a hung jury. He escaped a second trial due to his cognitive decline. And from Joh’s wretched regime came the Fitzgerald Inquiry, which probed political & police corruption, with quite a few ending up in the slammer.
@mavis yep and Joh still worshipped by so many on the right. Deep down they long for a police state where the cops are the government’s own personal hit squad, protestors are beaten up, and gerrymandering makes victory inevitable.
Thanks all, re Joh for Canberra.
Incidentally, Ian Sinclair, former leader of the National Party (1984 – 9 May 1989), has reached the ripe old age of 97.
Mavis:
I always forget that Ian Sinclair is still alive!
He’s the last surviving minister from the Menzies, Holt, Gorton, and McMahon governments, and one of the few remaining from Fraser’s.
If memory serves, “Joh for PM” bumper stickers were inserted into an edition of the then much more widely read Sunday Times newspaper in Perth. From that point a large number were posted in unstamped envelopes to the authorized address on the sticker. Sadly, Australia Post refused to play ball.
Tommy Sheridan:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 11:08 pm
I wasn’t living in Queensland at the time, though I followed Joh’s reign closely. He was a crook who got off lightly, but his brothers & a sister in crime didn’t fare so well: Austin, Muntz, Harvey & Lane, all ministers, were all sentenced to prison. The Police Commissioner, Lewis, who was the most corrupt, was sentenced to 14 years in jail, serving 10 of them, and was stripped of his knighthood, though the last time I visited Police HQ (circa 2010), his portrait was still hanging there. One of several positive things that flowed from the Fitzgerald Inquiry was the enactment of the Police Powers and Responsibilities Act 2000, which codified police behaviour. They hate it because of the paperwork, but if they fail to abide by it, they’re in trouble. And yes, the gerrymander Joh enjoyed was a disgrace. Perhaps if there were a second House in Queensland, it would’ve never eventuated.
Asha:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 11:33 pm
Yes, and he is the “last of the Right Honourables”, giving him membership of the Privy Council. Presumably, that lapsed after the enactment of the
Australia Act in 1986.
Well it looks like actually doing something has served labor well.
The press will be so disappointed.
Boerwar at 7.10 pm re Hastie
BW: “his substantive achievements since becoming an MP are less than inspiring”.
Last year I sold a car to a nice old gent in Mandurah who would most probably agree with that.
However, the people who will decide on Hastie’s immediate future are a narrow and unrepresentative group, namely Federal Lib MPs, including Senator Price, probably the second most solid Taylor vote.
What achievements count among that narrow group? 1) A media profile, which Hastie has built up. 2) A record as an effective campaigner. Hastie was the front bencher with the biggest swing to Libs in 2025 {5.4%}. There were similar swings in Durack and O’Connor in WA, and slightly bigger in Flynn and Solomon, but they are all back bench seats.
The main obstacle to Hastie becoming the next Lib leader is not his under-achieving. It is his enemies within the Lib caucus. The counter is that Taylor is very polished at failing and there is nobody else.