The weekly Roy Morgan series joins Newspoll, YouGov, RedBridge Group and DemosAU in having One Nation leading on the primary vote, surging two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with Labor down a point to 26% and the Coalition down two-and-a-half to 17.5%. The latter result is half-a-point off the record worst poll result the Coalition recorded in a RedBridge Group poll in March, and puts them barely ahead of the Greens, up two to 15.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1631. A Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 – I’m unclear if this is respondent-allocated or based on speculative estimates. Conventional two-party results have Labor leading the Coalition 56-44 on respondent-allocated (out from 55.5-44.5) and 54-46 using previous election preference flows (out from 53.5-46.5).
The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised results from the Farrer by-election, so we now have the preference distribution and preference-flow-by-candidate data. The latter reveals that Liberal preferences recorded a surprisingly evenly 59.0-41.0 split in favour of One Nation winner David Farley over independent Michelle Milthorpe, compared with 69.1-30.9 among Nationals voters. The split among Greens voters was fully 91.8-8.2 in favour of Milthorpe.
Nadia – He knows his lines but if he is asked about anything else he is caught off guard.
Carroll only got the gig as deputy because he attempted to put his hand up for the leadership after Andrews resigned. He didn’t really have much support in the caucus, but it would have caused a formal election campaign which would have taken months. Andrews got him to withdraw on the condition he got the deputyship.
Victoria says:
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 7:02 pm
And Ben Carroll does not have a low profile.
================
Doesn’t he?
He comes across to me as another politician who’se parliamentary achievements you could list on the back of a stamp – and still have room spare.
No presence on stage.
nadia honestly Hanson might not be that clever here there’s going to be a point where people are just sick of hearing politics constantly and then demand her answer to show her policies endless and I understand when people say one nation don’t care about policies you don’t have to get all of her support you just have to pinch off a couple of her support seriously I know people saying Labor has soft support but wouldn’t that be the same for one nation
Jolly Jumbuck at 6.44 pm
Your view is inconsistent with the results of the 2025 election, which occurred 16 months after Labor had changed its full support for the stage 3 tax cuts. Politics is rather dynamic.
A basic hurdle for any opposition that is challenging Labor is to have some policies that are not obviously going to be unpalatable (e.g. No Work from Home) or unsustainable (nuke power).
Currently the LNP and the Hanson cult have one main theme (agitation against “mass migration”), but no details. Mr Farley commented during the Farrer campaign that the current level of migration is about right. He knows much more than Ms Hanson.
Mavis
I am gobsmacked at how trusting people are of the advice served up to them when they ask ChatGPT, or other “AI” algorithms, for “Give me advice about this contract, considering “issue x” ?
As Frednk has suggested / shown with a good reference, AI is just really good indexing of the web, which returns results relative to what we are interested in, summarising what would otherwise have taken us days and even weeks to discover.
But with the AI that we “talk” to, there is an extra layer of said AI wanting to please us. Why? Totally outside the scope of this discussion, but needs to be considered by anyone wanting to use the output of AI. Would you trust the advice of a flunkey?
So, for 80% of the population, yes, sure, we are happy to take the document written by a flunkey and send it into the ether as our work.
For anyone paying attention, we realise that AI is a super Google search, with extra (non-magic) capabilities to generate stuff from that search base, that we would have generated anyway, given time. But only because it has been trained on the stuff we did and do generate.
nadiasays:
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 6:31 pm
Bit of a diabolical situation in Victoria for the Federal ALP.
My guess is that the Federal ALP will plough more money into Victoria to try and avert a wipeout come November.
_______________________
What a mess.
Non Victorians must be so pissed off Federal Funds are being used to prop up Victoria after the waste and mismanagement of the Andrews/Allan govt.
Victoria @ #692 Sunday, June 14th, 2026 – 7:06 pm
If it were a pox on both houses type anti-major party backlash the Greens would be benefiting from the sentiment. But the Greens vote is going nowhere. I don’t think it’s entirely racism, though.
@Taylormade at 7:20pm
Just as well you have a face to the person who called you a fucking loser and walks the dark streets of Freo without a care in the world, eh?
Hanson overtakes Albanese as preferred PM, Coalition crashes to record low
James MassolaJune 14, 2026 — 6:00pm
Pauline Hanson has rocketed past Anthony Albanese as Australians’ first choice to be prime minister, while One Nation has edged out Labor and now leads both major parties on primary vote.
Time for pollsters to pack up and go home… mission accomplished
AI
Yes, political polling can influence election results by shaping voter perceptions and behaviors, often leading to phenomena like the “bandwagon effect,” where people support candidates they believe are likely to win. However, the accuracy of polls can vary, and they should be interpreted with caution..
Sweet Jebus.
What is it with people making false statements and spewing them as facts.
———-
Victoria consistently receives the lowest per capita funding from the Australian Federal Government. Due to the nation’s horizontal fiscal equalisation policies, it contributes more in tax revenue per person than it receives back in federal transfers, making it the largest long-term net subsidiser of the “poorer” states.
Holdenhillbilly at 6.41 pm
Yes it’s a silly satirical rag, but that headline is misguided. Gallipolli is actually in Turkey or the Ottoman Empire as it was. The real authors of Australian and New Zealand disaster at Gallipoli were W. Churchill et. al.
My mother’s father was wounded on the second day at Gallipoli. He lived but had to walk with two sticks for the rest of his life, including as captain of Kintail in the first Sydney-Hobart race.
Funny, anti ALP stooges in NSW say the exact same thing about people outside of NSW with respect to the Minns government.
Also
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Infrastructure Funding: Over the past decade, Victoria has received roughly half its fair share of federal infrastructure funding in per capita terms. If funding were strictly commensurate with its population (which sits at roughly 25.8% of the nation), the state would receive an estimated additional $3.5 billion over five years.
Call It What It Is: Foreign Interference
If a hostile state ran this sort of operation to swing our vote, we’d call it foreign interference. It’s time we did.
https://redbridgeintel.substack.com/p/call-it-what-it-is-foreign-interference
And this
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Health and Preschools: Victoria receives around 23.9% of Commonwealth health funding, falling below its population share, which leaves a $3.4 billion funding shortfall. Similarly, its massive investments into the state’s free kindergarten program fall beyond the national preschool reform agreement, forcing the state to shoulder the bulk of the cost.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hanson-overtakes-albanese-as-preferred-pm-coalition-crashes-to-record-low-20260614-p606lg.html
Perhaps they need to start throwing in Tony Abbott, the co-opposition leader?
Seriously though, perhaps the succession of appalling polling numbers for the Coalition might finally force Tony into silence? One can hope.
And this
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GST Distribution: Historically and recently, Victoria has received less than its exact population share of Commonwealth grants. There is a consensus that Victoria’s extensive debt is largely compounded by the need to self-fund large-scale projects like the Metro Tunnel and Suburban Rail Loop without the level of federal backing seen in states like NSW.
The Victorian branch of the ALP was fairly cash rich after the last 12 years. The donation register showed that before it was taken down after the High Court ruling. There won’t need to be a lot federal cash needed for this year’s campaign.
The Victorian Liberals were close to broke until they sold their Russell street HQ and that cash in the bank has been bankrolling them since then. (I used to go to the SpecSavers underneath at one stage).
BW:
Yeah, that headline is enough for me to know that article probably isn’t worth reading. The words “never” are rarely applicable to such statements.
The leader of a party currently polling around or a bit under 30% of the primary vote can absolutely become PM. That doesn’t mean they will do so, but they definitely can. Nobody, not even Hanson, is unelectable if people want a change of government badly enough.
I’m not sure we can keep relying on traditional assumptions of voter behaviour from back when One Nation were lucky to get near 10% and both Labor and the Coalition got well over 30% in the current circumstances. Something has clearly radically changed in the last year and particularly since the budget, and while I’m sure this shift is most pronounced in the regions, its difficult to look at the present numbers and be assured that metropolitan Australia will reject Hanson as strongly as it has in the past.
I personally do think it is more likely than not she will collapse under the pressure of a traditional election campaign and be exposed (well, exposed further) as totally unqualified for the office she is seeking. The question is… will anybody still be listening at that point, and will they even hear about it in the places they are getting their news? Abbott spent his nearly four years as opposition leader repeatedly demonstrating how unfit he was for high office, and won in a landslide.
nadia at 6.35 pm
Having visited Victoria in the past decade largely as (to borrow a quip from Dame Edna about London) a “good stepping off point” for Tasmania, I defer to B.S. Fairman and the locals.
The problem with changing Ms Allan now as leader is that it might well be widely perceived as too late, apart from the obscurity of her replacement.
Confessions at 7.38 pm
Isn’t that the same poll that had Taylor leading as preferred PM last time?
As B.S. Fairman and Boerwar have said, voters saying they support the Hanson cult live in a policy free zone.
The lesson of 2025 is that when an election campaign starts or just before then, policy looms quite large.
@Dr Doolittle at 7:44pm
The big problem here is that the option of “do nothing” is that Jacinta Allan is so unpopular that she’d do worse than 20/88 Lower House seats and 10/40 Upper House seats to the point it’d take more than 12 years for Victorian Labor to recover from such a defeat.
That was the situation in NSW after Labor’s thrashing in 2011. And they don’t even have a majority government after all that.
nadia
I saw those numbers on Channel 9 news. Resolve poll reports to 9Fax and Channel 9 news is part of that.
Asha at 7.44 pm
Do you remember election day 2013? I was somewhere in inner east of Perth and the Libs had no photos of Abbott. Only Labor had big photos of Abbott.
Hanson is different. The cult voters treat her like a celebrity. Abbott was an omnipresence but not a celebrity.
Apart from that the obvious reason why Abbott won was Labor division. So the circumstances were different.
Renshaw fails again. He goes for duck.
Yes, It is probably too late to change Labor leader to save the day in Victoria, but a change would result in furniture being saved. And the sooner it happens the more furniture that will be saved.
Labor needs to lose less than 11 seats net to maintain majority government, less than 14 to form a minority government with the Greens. The chance of the former is close to zero, but the latter is still possible.
The problem the Liberals/Nationals have is they need to win 17 seats net to win majority government. That is going to be a tall ask as One Nation looks like it might sweep away a lot of country seats. Even a conservative estimate of One Nation winning a half dozen seats in the country is going to leave the Liberals needing to win 23 urban seats or else need to do a deal with One Nation.
I wouldn’t normally suggest watching an ABC clip – but this one shows the patriotic, near jingoistic explosion of glee at the World Cup result.
And who was doing the celebrating? A mosaic of young multi cultural Australians – just the ones Pauline Hanson and her po-faced goons hate.
https://youtu.be/BxqTSdUFNaM?si=0t1bJU4glpp74QhC
Dr Doolittle @ #721 Sunday, June 14th, 2026 – 7:51 pm
It may well have been, I haven’t been paying attention.
It is, however the same poll that had Dutton leading as PPM early last year and then, as you say, an election was called and suddenly scrutiny forced Dutton into the light, and the rest is history.
I do think Hanson is different. As we saw with Trump, the increased media scrutiny only amplified him to voters, giving him a platform which he played to nicely. Hanson voters appear to be similarly forgiving and excusing of her as Trump curious voters were.
Evening all. Firstly great job Socceroos! Turkiye are no slouches so that is a great win.
Others have already made the point that the win was achieved by a multi-cultural, multiracial team. Pauline Hanson should be asked which goal scorer she would like sent home to their country of origin.
I have no idea where Pauline Hanson and one nation will end up at the next Federal election, but the great kerfuffle and electioneering, as if an election can be forced soon, reminds me of France a year ago.
So, at this moment, in Australia, social media and the MSM (well at least the people they platform,) are screaming to the heavens that we need an election, now!!
As I patiently explain to my mother (who is convinced that her aged-care package is soon going to be taken away by Pauline Hanson, PM) it is around two years until the next Federal election.
Why Hanson and friends are demanding an election now, when it is perfectly obvious one will not be called, could either be trying it on, or part of some really amazing 4-D chess strategy. I have no idea which it is, but the same thing played out in France about a year ago.
So, a year ago, in France, everyone hated President Macron. He had an approval rating of around 7%. Prime Ministers and governments fell in regular succession. The unhappy urbanites burned cars in Saint Denis. The farmers dumped loads of manure on the autoroutes, and burned tires at the roundabouts. The country seemed on the brink of revolution – but it was still two years out from a presidential election.
Somehow, things calmed down. I noticed it myself around December last year – suddenly the French were no longer talking about how much they hated Macron, and, really, anything else politically related.
And it was not just me – my friends, when I got back to France in late March this year, independently suggested that French politics had suddenly gone very quiet.
So, in France, have the RN, Bardella and Le Pen just retreated tactically until they can maximise their campaign to get the inheritors of Pétain and Vichy into government?
And why is One Nation suddenly calling for new elections in Australia, and acting like these will happen shortly? Just as RN did in France, only to retreat?
As I said is there some 3 or 4 -D chess that I am missing here? Or are both RN (France) and ON Australia, really not understanding that just because you call stridently for an early election, does not meant it has to happen?
I’m sure I am not the only one here who sees parallels between the Pauline for PM push and the Joh for Canberra campaign.
They have so many things in common, not least being racist, inarticulate Queenslanders. We know Joh was corrupt and at this stage Hanson is only guilty of being loose with the accounting.
Joh ended up not running for the HoR. I doubt Hanson will either.
Fun times ahead.
sprocket_says:
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 8:04 pm
I wouldn’t normally suggest watching an ABC clip – but this one shows the patriotic, near jingoistic explosion of glee at the World Cup result.
And who was doing the celebrating? A mosaic of young multi cultural Australians – just the ones Pauline Hanson and her po-faced goons hate.
https://youtu.be/BxqTSdUFNaM?si=0t1bJU4glpp74QhC
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It is indeed wonderful, but I think still it’s dangerous to assume that just because ON (the party) hates multicultural Australians, they hate her back.
“Resolve pollster Jim Reed said the results made clear that support for Hanson was growing and she now had a broad appeal to voters.”
“It’s the drawbridge effect, where Australians born overseas are often the more vehemently opposed to increased immigration.”
I hope he is wrong but fear he is not.
My thesis is simple- government’s are being punishing where house prices are falling hardest (NSW and very Victoria). And women, white and non-white combined, are starting to fear for their wages growth (and cost of living) in the industries of biggest labour supply growth.
This is a typically interesting Denis Muller article from a few days ago:
https://theconversation.com/a-right-mess-how-mining-media-and-political-interests-are-combining-to-influence-public-debate-in-australia-279454
It mentions in passing (via a link to a Saturday Paper article) that Lang Hancock was behind the Joh for PM plan.
On the polls, like others, I still find One Nation’s rise staggering, given Hanson’s record of rorting every bucket of money she has ever had access to, and the emptiness and implausibility of her policies. One Nation’s rise is obviously driven by resentment.
That being said, there are reasons for resentment that are real. Last week I was in north Qld (Cairns) for work. I have lived and worked there before early in my career and it was lovely to see the area and some old work mates again.
One thing that shocked me though was the cost of food, especially fresh fruit and vegetables. Local produce like bananas and fish were reasonable but any imported produce was expensive, even simple items like apples and oranges. I normally do the household groceries shopping in Adelaide and the difference was noticeable, perhaps +20% to +25%. This must hurt families.
In my experience retailers and transport companies have always used the distance and remoteness of the far north to justify higher prices. But the Gulf war and fuel prices have evidently put them on steroids.
Around a third of Australians are in Trump and Farage territory. More women support women support Hanson/ON than Albanese/ ALP government. They know Hanson is xenophobic, racist and a grifter. And yet they are behaving like this. We know cookers exist in Australia and now they are setting the agenda like they did in US and UK. And the media is giving coverage to this nonsense. Media has lost all sense of proportion.
Douglas and Milko because I think that maybe they realized that the time to strike now is when labors in a so so position I don’t know also about Abbott honesty labour gave him the prime minister ship with Rgr stuff also I don’t think you can compare different countries elections like America concerning how different their voting is and also comparing something to the 2013 election also another comparison Point remember when we all for bill was going to be leader look how that turned
*checks notes*
Australia 2026 (Adelaide)
In my opinion, the federal government has two options at the moment.
Stay the course with Albanese, remain united and disciplined, continue to argue the merits of the budget and do all they can to fight against the scare campaigns, make a few tweaks to the more contentious aspects of the tax reforms if need be, bring in further reforms (economic and otherwise) during the next couple of years, govern as best as they can, don’t get drawn into culture war nonsense, and hope that by early 2028, the Australian economy, housing market, and energy situation are in a place that vindicates their economic management. If, as is looking increasingly likely, their main opponent in the next election will be One Nation rather than the opposition, then their best path to reelection is in looking like the safe, reliable, devil-you-know, with Albanese’s brand now being a Howard-esque “you may not like him, but he’s acting in the national interest.”
The other is replacing Albanese. I personally don’t think much good would come from that. (Ask me again in 6-12 months and I may have a different opinion.) Here’s the thing: rolling a sitting PM is effectively an admission that the government was on the wrong track and needs to do things differently. And it will look like he was rolled. Even if Albanese steps down willingly and swears on his life that it was his own decision, the narrative will be that he was pushed. If it happens anytime soon, then the narrative will also be that this happened because of the poor reaction to the budget.
Chalmers would have a hard time in that situation, I think. He’s the public face of the government’s economic management, one of the main people out their advocating for the tax changes, and very close to Albanese in general. It would look like desperation on the government’s part and a shallow power grab on Chalmers’ part.
To sell such a change, the new leader would need to be a relative “cleanskin.” Someone who is a frontbencher but not in the senior leadership team nor associated with more, er, controversial portfolios. Jason Clare could potentially fit the bill, assuming he’s able to take the leadership without it looking like he was involved in the machinations that made it happen.
But, I dunno, I still don’t think a change of leader is at all in the government’s interest right now, and particularly not if Albo won’t go willingly. He may not be popular right now, but Albanese has repeatedly shown he is not one to be underestimated and to have better political judgement than he’s given credit for. Now, if the present trends continue and the government are in an even worse position than they are right now by the end of the year, then it may be a different story.
Asha yeah honestly replacing a leader now when they’re doing fine is the dumbest idea to that’s what I think killed off the Labor government 2013 if they stayed the course with Kevin they would have probably had a good 2010 election results and that election campaign they ran in 2025 was also good which is I think they’re gonna run the same campaign because it works hey how do you know Hanson’s got your best interest at heart you don’t need to win them all back it’s just need to win some of them back
Why for any reason Labor not continue with the current leader?
With a huge majority, which will stay in place for the next two years, why would Labor give any thought to an “early election” – if this were possible?
The so-called “rise” of ON is illusory to the extent that even the most dimwitted would recognise that no political party with the hold that Labor has over government would blithely stand aside and not aim for two budgets from now, and at least two years before contemplating an election.
As some of us remember the Joh for Canberra push (still have a sticker that my in-laws had – who also thought he was the greatest thing since sliced bread) only showed up what a total shyster he and his lot were.
Hanson is cut out of the same cloth.
Asha nope do not replace Anthony that is the stupidest idea where the polling at the moments fine hell there were polling worse before election the seriously what they need to do and I think they’re going to do is to say hey Hanson’s not who she seems and just run campaign constantly on her track record you don’t need to win all of them over you just need to win some of them over and the thing is Momentum can change easily that’s that’s why I don’t get why people are panicking now when it seems me all she’s getting is the people who would have voted for the coalition to vote for her instead.Tricot yep I agree do not change the leader they’re doing fine I hope to God that they don’t replace their leaders like they have to learn that that’s even worse than just keeping on track with Anthony
They are not changing Albo. He is still looking like he is governing. You can be unpopular and still get elected if you are still seen as competent.
The trouble arises when there is a sense that the government doesn’t know what it is doing. That is what is happening in Victoria.
I welcome the headline about Hanson as preferred PM.
It will make people sit up and say WTF?
Why are people thinking Labor will change leaders now? Honestly, the government has a thumping majority, is using its majority to bring forward significant budgetary changes to benefit lower income households which are getting blow back from certain vested interests corners, and people are all like ‘yikes! Where’s Jim Chalmers!?”
These are the same people begging Labor to “use its majority as capital” to bring about structural change. Good to know Labor can’t rely on you folk when it really matters.
Stick to the plan on tax, prepare a massive income tax cut at the next budget. Announce migration system reforms after the 2027 budget that cuts migration numbers significantly but ensures those still arriving are all like Irankunda.
B. S. Fairman and Confessions listen I don’t know who’s saying it too like I think people are generally paranoid that we’re going to elect a Trump even know the political system in the US works like Hanson’s problem is that she now has to get Urban areas and guess what they like climate change you know progressive stuff I would like to see how she makes the argument in Urban areas have you forgot sakes liberals just lost what nine seats that they couldn’t have because they didn’t moderate. Also confessions a couple of bumpy poles and now people think that I repeat we’re going to end up with one nation dictatorship but if we do I’ll put my hands up as chief executioner
Albanese is getting the reality check he needs but it’s up to Albanese to take the right lessons.
The liberals are in free fall in the polls. A liberal front bencher, who even Tony Burke reckons is a sharp operator, quits. And people think Albanese might need to be shunted?
Is it full moon?
Every so often Aussies need a lesson the hard way and if ON is elected, they will indeed be taught yet again,that the grass is not greener on the other side. Meanwhile the LNP is in its death throes.