The weekly Roy Morgan series joins Newspoll, YouGov, RedBridge Group and DemosAU in having One Nation leading on the primary vote, surging two-and-a-half points to 29.5%, with Labor down a point to 26% and the Coalition down two-and-a-half to 17.5%. The latter result is half-a-point off the record worst poll result the Coalition recorded in a RedBridge Group poll in March, and puts them barely ahead of the Greens, up two to 15.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1631. A Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result has Labor leading 53.5-46.5 – I’m unclear if this is respondent-allocated or based on speculative estimates. Conventional two-party results have Labor leading the Coalition 56-44 on respondent-allocated (out from 55.5-44.5) and 54-46 using previous election preference flows (out from 53.5-46.5).
The Australian Electoral Commission has published finalised results from the Farrer by-election, so we now have the preference distribution and preference-flow-by-candidate data. The latter reveals that Liberal preferences recorded a surprisingly evenly 59.0-41.0 split in favour of One Nation winner David Farley over independent Michelle Milthorpe, compared with 69.1-30.9 among Nationals voters. The split among Greens voters was fully 91.8-8.2 in favour of Milthorpe.
The trend is One Nation’s friend. I’m still of the view their vote is largely a soft “none of the above” protest vote I guess this is what happens when voters feel neglected by major parties for many years – trust is lost and it becomes hard to win back once people reach the point where they’d rather just vote to burn it all down. There is a growing sense nothing works like it should work and responsibility for that lies with the duopoly.
Thanks WB
Good to see Labor holding firm in the face of relentless duopoly/uniparty narration.
Don’t know how the federal lib/nats are going to regain ground , without political attacking One Nation , who is taking the lib/nats and other aligned minor parties voter base.
The UK in AUKUS looking quite ucky today…
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/uk-defence-minister-quits-hours-before-meeting-with-marles-20260611-p6064j.html
With that pv no one can doubt that Labor is in trouble.
According to a review of CNN reporting of Trump’s announcements of ‘a deal’ on the Gulf War, there has been 37 such announcements over the last 15 weeks.
We now have #38…
WSJ
MI, the pollster, in projecting an election winning lead for the ALP over each of the deplorable baskets, seems to show at least some doubt.
@mj
I don’t much sympathy for these kind of voters if they had voted against Gillard in 2010, Rudd in 2013 and a Shorten in 2019. They voted against polices that would have curtailed a lot of the economic difficulties we faced today but fell for propaganda form the self interested Mining and Property lobby.
Those losses made Labor the party it is today where to save the country they’re going to fight every lesson the electorate have taught them for a decade.
Yes it still seems like the One Nation vote is now cemented in – no longer sure if it’s a protest vote as such. I think it is clearly hurting the Coalition more than Labor. Question is: can the Liberals do anything to regain ground? Embracing One Nation just seems to be scoring constant own goals.
Congrats to Mexico on winning game 1 of the World Cup, 103 to go. Hopefully it goes as smoothly and safely as possible
Disappointed the Greens 15.5 didn’t make the headline, maybe it’ll happen when we pass the LNP rather than just the LP
At this point it looks like One Nation will replace the Liberals as the official opposition. I wonder if that will require a rewriting of the ABC Charter? It probably should happen either way, the political landscape has changed dramatically
Labour lost 8 % in PV since election. At the same time L-NP lost 14% in PV. The 2PP looks dubious.
Sprocket
Sorry to say I told you so but the fact is that in choosing the UK to build nuclear submarines the RAN chose a partner that was not capable of doing the job.
The UK does not have the money or industrial capacity to deliver and maintain enough nuclear submarines for the Royal Navy. They will have the same problem delivering to the RAN.
BAE and UK are desperate for our money so they will never admit this.
Ignoring politics, from a technical viewpoint the only realistic options are French nuclear or German or Korean diesel submarines.
Marles might have thought that he is on a nice holiday in the name of AUKUS.(Quite a few Australian People usually get away to UK during our winter).
Now Marles has nowhere to hide and has to comeback. Otherwise we know and pretty obvious that he is on Holiday at tax payers expense.
AUKUS is dead, waiting to be buried.
They won’t stop this futile parade.
Still points to landslide victory for Labor at next election
Or Chinese nuclear submarines because they produce 2 or 3 every year as per BW. 🙂
It is becoming increasingly obvious that my theory, where Morrison in order to have favourable FTA with Britain (for PR purposes), he not only betrayed France with existing submarine Deal and cooked up a dud deal with US and UK which did not have any details at the time of announcements and with a lead time of 18 months to work out details. Even after that it is a dud deal.
“Bullshit, bullsh…er, quack, quack, quack.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jun/11/iran-war-news-us-strikes-donald-trump-stalled-peace-talks-middle-east-crisis
Since the Coalition ‘Opposition’ is not going to do so, and the Greens will obly do so cursorily amongst their preferred goal of critiquing the Government, the Labor Government is going to have to combat One Nation politicians in the cause of saving potential One Nation voters (and the rest ofus) from having to suffer from having those politicians elected – and those of us who agree we shouldn’t be subjected to One Nation policies ought to help as much as we can:
“Pauline Hanson is becoming a problem for Labor – now it has to respond:
Labor talking points this week concede Australians are frustrated with an economy that ‘isn’t working for them’. The goal will be to convince voters One Nation isn’t either”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jun/12/pauline-hanson-one-nation-labor-ntwnfb
Pauline Hanson opposes your pay rise.
Pauline Hanson opposes your tax cut.
I think Ed Husic’s approach to AI Data centres i.e. strong guardrails, is a better one than where the government seems to have landed. Building them all over won’t end well
The AUKUS debacle becomes even more debacley
Hopefully it’s 38th time lucky with the peace agreement between Trump and Iran although Netanyahu seems likely to derail things again
TGIF
Off to work, enjoy your day
So Donnie’s pick for permanent director of national intelligence is going to be Jay Lifton, a former Wall Street corporate lawyer. Wow! Just think of the intelligence expertise he will bring to the table.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/11/trump-jay-clayton-director-of-national-intelligence
Could the following have some bearing on being chosen? Maayybbee…
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/11/us/politics/trump-jay-clayton-intelligence-chief.html
Its Friday. Time for Trump to play the markets again.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/us-and-iran-trade-attacks-for-a-second-day-undermining-shaky-ceasefire-20260611-p60616.html
How embarrassing for Marles.
I wonder when the media and ECAJ will pick up on the unbridled antisemitism that doubtlessly festers in the ranks of One Nation.
Not the sneering, academic lefty kind, mind you — but the full fat, brown-shirted, jack-booted goose-stepping variety.
And yet both institutions seem to remain more concerned about the former. One wonders if some antisemites are tolerated, so long as they also (or more loudly) express their hatred for muslims.
Taylormade says:
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 8:11 am
How embarrassing for Marles.
_________
Why? If anything it is embarrassing for Australia.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Iran says no final decision made on deal that Trump hopes could be signed soon: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-trade-attacks-second-day-undermining-shaky-ceasefire-2026-06-11/
Trump threatens to seize Kharg Island and other Iran oil infrastructure: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/trump-says-us-will-seize-kharg-island-and-other-oil-infrastructure-points.html
Three Indian sailors dead after US attack on ship off Oman coast; MEA summons top US diplomat: https://thesouthfirst.com/beyond-south/two-indian-sailors-dead-one-missing-after-us-attack-on-ship-off-oman-coast-mea-summons-top-us-diplomat/
Crimea Isolated From Mainland Ukraine After Precision Drone Strikes Disable Strategic Bridges: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/crimea-isolated-from-mainland-ukraine-after-precision-drone-strikes-disable-strategic-bridges-19728
Swiss canton bans headscarves for female teachers: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/st-gallen-cantonal-council-decides-to-ban-headscarves-for-female-teachers/91560143
A socialite who killed a mugger by running him over to reclaim her stolen bag has been sentenced to 18 years under house arrest: https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15891763/Socialite-ran-killed-Moroccan-mugger-stole-bag-sentence-Italy.html
US producer prices rose 6.5% on higher energy prices, largest yearly jump since 2022: https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-producer-prices-rose-65-higher-energy-prices-133780472
White House Rocked as Secret Epstein Talks Come to Light: https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-rocked-as-secret-epstein-talks-come-to-light/
House Democrat: Vance part of White House Epstein ‘cover up’: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5920178-garcia-vance-investigation-epstein/
Trump opened a complaint line and got 35,000 complaints about himself: https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/trump-national-park-complaint-line-b2993261.html
El Nino is here and scientists fear it’ll be big, bad and costly with heat, floods, droughts, fires: https://apnews.com/article/el-nino-climate-change-flood-drought-damage-7eafacd2bcf04ade9d7f555dfd488178
in these circumstances is a post preference estimate mostly guess work or is there some actual maths behind in?
Bloody hell!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/11/alabama-execution-nitrogen-hypoxia
The good news is that Taylor will not be the next prime minister.
The bad news is huge above average temperatures for Antarctica.
The bad news is that the El Nino is looking increasingly likely.
The bad news is that inflation is locked in.
The bad news is that a lot of people are going to go hungry.
The bad news is that the SoH is shut.
The bad news is that the Anthropocene Extinction Event is gaining pace.
The bad news is that the negative trends pursuant to climate change are all kicking in.
The bad news is that Prime Minister Hanson is looking increasingly likely.
Kronomex
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/11/alabama-execution-nitrogen-hypoxia
Now is probably not the time to refer to “shared values” with USA. Looking at Iran I’d drop the “rules based order” schtick as well.
I’d agree the 2PP seems a bit dubious, although i guess the ALP would still comfortably win an election on those numbers. I continue there remains a significant “quiet Tory” phenomenon (for lack of a better term) and the real One Nation vote is likely to be a bit ahead of the polling.
The Coalition will stay alive through state politics. It seems the Coalition vote remains competitive in state polling, the switch to One Nation is much stronger at a federal level than state, to be expected as immigration is a federal government issue. I figure the the Coalition will comfortably win in Victoria, I think they will dominate Queensland for at least a decade, and i think they are still a strong chance of coming back in NSW.
I think an issue the ALP is failing to recognise as driving voters moving from the ALP to One Nation is that much of this is being driven by unhappiness that immigration is undermining the place of Australians in the employment market and their industrial bargaining position. Obviously, this is very historic labour politics. I hear this discussed on a frequent basis in the healthcare workforce.
The TPP is largely meaningless now. I still firmly believe that ON is going to be more regionally skewed than the Coalition ever was. I reckon there are a fair number of Liberal voters out there, certainly amongst the ones remaining, who will put ON dead last
The Nationals are a dead party and the Liberals are a minor party who will pick up a few seats in the urban fringe in the way the Greens and Teals can pick up a few in city centres. One Nation will take all the regional seats, the ALP the remainder
Sky, I’d agree. I’m really not sure that federal polling without some kibd of regional breakdown is very useful currently. Our politics has become very closely linked to geography.
It really interesting to look at the maps of election results over the last 30 to 40 years. The older maps are a colourful patchwork, the newer maps show sharp division between red cities and blue and green country, very similar to the USA, except that our population distribution is much more strongly skewed towards the city.
And of course Gareth Evans yesterday called AUKUS “Australia’s worst foreign policy decision ever”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/11/aukus-among-australia-worst-foreign-policy-decisions-gareth-evans
Griffsays:
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 8:15 am
Why? If anything it is embarrassing for Australia.
_______________________
Resigned rather than spend time in the same room as him.
Showed a lack of respect. Treated Marles like dog shit.
Very humbling for Marles.
Taylormade says:
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:13 am
Griffsays:
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 8:15 am
Why? If anything it is embarrassing for Australia.
_______________________
Resigned rather than spend time in the same room as him.
Showed a lack of respect. Treated Marles like dog shit.
Very humbling for Marles.
____________
Oh dear! Your view on the matter is what is embarrassing. More than a touch myopic. The resignation of the British Minister of Defence doesn’t revolve around Australia and certainly not around Marles 😉
There is certainly a bandwagon effect occurring with the increasing support for ON. The MSM has constantly been portraying ON as a winner and has offered almost zero critical appraisal of their policies to date. The “$2 million fundraising in two days” has been reported as a spectacular show of support for ON – how much was contributed by Gina & co and do we believe what Pauline claims?
A lot of people like to be associated with a winner and the current image of ON carefully crafted by Pauline and associates with assistance from the MSM, is that they will be electoral winners. How long before someone in the MSM breaks ranks and subjects ON to intense scrutiny is anyone’s guess. Meanwhile Pauline is treated as the Great White Hope and the Coalition are left to slowly wither away.
John Healy not only rebelled against Starmer but also humiliated him, he humiliated Australia by resigning hours before meeting Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles.
[Socrates says:
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 8:57 am
And of course Gareth Evans yesterday called AUKUS “Australia’s worst foreign policy decision ever”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/11/aukus-among-australia-worst-foreign-policy-decisions-gareth-evans%5D
Actually, I reckon ‘Britain is at war therefore Australia is at war’, going to the Vietnam War and going to the Afghanistan War were all far, far worse foreign policy decisions.
Someone pass me an ashtray.
I see that the Labor slagging brigade is in full cry. Youse guys should be more careful. You might get what you wish for.
Healy could have delayed his resignation by 24 hours and resigned straight AFTER he met with Marles.
The same slaggers would have been in full cry.
Oh, and the UK is headed for Prime Minister Farage. Enjoy!
Although liar Trump said deal has been reached, Iran firmly rejects that Trump assertion.
Boerwar
Pauline Hanson likely to be PM in 2028? There is a lot to happen between now and then.
The next UK election is due mid 2029.
Lots to happen there as well.
Hi PBers! Long time first time. From Labor’s perspective I think this poll is a bit of a ‘nothing to see here’ despite the excitement of ON continuing to pull ahead on PV. Labor -1 Greens +2, Lib -2.5 ON +2.5. Those would be some pretty efficient preference returns and from my perspective doesn’t show much bleed to the right.
BW
As you suggested, we should buy Chinese nuclear submarines because they make at least 2 or 3 nuclear submarines per year. 🙂
Good Hank Green article regarding the upcoming barrage of IPOs in the AI space (each of them individually larger than all 2025 IPOs put together), with Google getting in ahead of the IPOs with a fundraising round on the same order of magnitude.
Does the investor money even exist to plunge on all this? I wonder.
And if the bubble bursts, the losses will be, well not incalculable but pretty amazingly massive.
Ven and TM – I bet London to a brick Australia was not on Healy’s mind when he resigned as UK Defence Secretary. Funnily enough, Australia and its Defence Minister wasn’t mentioned at all in the lengthy discussion of Healy’s resignation on the latest episode of the podcast Ukraine: The Latest.
The Epstein class isn’t short of ready to spend capital, any bubble bursting will no doubt be borne not by the Epstein class but by pension and super funds destroying retirement funds for normal workers, who should really be on defined benefit schemes.
Climate scientists are predicting Godzilla El Nino pretty soon.
I hate to admit to agree with American evangelists, who predicted that Anti-Christ would come to power in US and an Israeli leader will start Armageddon leading upto rapture. But Trump and Netanyahu are trying their level best to fulfil those evangelists dreams.
Trump surely has to be Anti-Christ or atleast anti-thesis of Christ described in Christian gospels.
Ed Husic did not have a policy for “AI data centres”, whatever those are.
He announced a policy around a limited definition of “high risk AI”:
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/husic/media-releases/albanese-government-acts-make-ai-safer
Which I recall being dismissed as weak and inadequate:
https://theconversation.com/the-government-says-more-people-need-to-use-ai-heres-why-thats-wrong-238327
https://ia.acs.org.au/article/2024/govt-s-ai-regulation-proposal-is-flawed-and-incomplete.html
But then again, the former Miniser for CSIRO cuts has a bit of a habit rewriting his own history.
I trust that Ed Husic enjoys Prime Minister Hanson.
He will have contributed to her ascension.
For some reason the MSM gives him more air than any of Labor’s ministers.
And yet he is one backbencher among many.
So there are lot of One Nation voters that are so mad with the Liberals they put Labor first. And a lot of remaining Liberal voters that will not vote ON in a fit.