A two-month Victorian state polling drought has ended with a bang, with Freshwater Strategy reporting earlier in the week, DemosAU doing so today, and Resolve Strategic presumably set to follow next week. All of which would seem to be an unwelcome development for Jacinta Allan, with DemosAU joining Freshwater Strategy in showing Labor running third behind One Nation. The Coalition is up a point on the last DemosAU poll in February to 30%, with Labor down two to 21% and One Nation up two to 23%, and the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45.
Jacinta Allan’s positive rating is up two to 18%, but her negative rating is up four to 57% with neutral down six to 25%. Jess Wilson is up five on positive to 32%, down three on neutral to 46% and down two on negative to 22%. The poll was conducted Sunday to Thursday from a sample of 1056. A full report including extensive demographic breakdowns will presumably be available on the pollster’s website shortly – Freshwater Strategy has now published its equivalent from the poll earlier in the week.
JA needs to go to save furniture at this point.
Allan has to go.
Get some blokes in, get fighting and the population will move back.
It’s looking increasingly so that the Resolve pollish looking thing in March/April was perhaps a bit of an outlier in terms of Greens vote. I suppose, if they go back to their normal methods, we’ll find that out soon enough.
As for the polls at hand well, on Monday I would have said that a hung parliament was likely but now…
If it is hung then government formation could be very difficult indeed, especially if One Nation gains more than 3 or so off of the L/NC.
Back on the Greens, despite the higher polling, we might start to struggle with our above the Yarra seats soon if this keeps up, as whilst we’ll make any tcp, conservative preference flows may well be enough to defy us, even in places like Brunswick, a la Melbourne 2025. As for the below the Yarra seats, the conservative vote is so strong now that losing to the Liberals should not be cast off as an impossibility, especially in Prahran with Westaway being very popular.
One thing that could be interesting if ON stays high and Labor low is that the Greens may start to enter into tcp contests which we would not usually find ourselves in. There may be a Greens member in a surprising electorate by December.
https://yapms.com/app/aus/vic_lower/2022330/blank?m=1rz9p3j0or8381a
It’s looking like a minority Coalition government right now according to AEForecasts (I mapped out the percentage leader in each seat based on their nowcast model).
It will be interesting to see what the map looks like after the campaign period.
Freshwater and DemosAU polls are more lib/nats leaning , doubt Labor primary vote is below 25%.
And contradicts the One Nation narrative
@Thomas Brian Mutter
Keep in mind that the AEForecasts page hasn’t been updated for this poll yet, so it could yet be worse for Labor.
Maybe JA should consider 50 cent fares like Miles & co in Q. This one stroke saved the furniture and then some!!
I agree with Scott. That 21% doesn’t sound right to me.
I think Jess Wilson avoid discussing the topic regarding multiculturalism and immigration, and even avoided using the term ever since the rise of One Nation in the polls might be politically smart way for her to avoid scrutiny and make it more like for moderates/Teals Voters that she isn’t moving reactionary while also trying to avoid bleeding as much support for One Nation as much as possible.
From north of the Murray, I’m mystified why Jacinta Allan hasn’t been moved on. I’d expect the ALP would lose pretty heavily anyway, given the government is 12 years old, scandal-ridden and drowning in debt. But surely ditching a premier who is clearly so very deeply unpopular gives them a chance to reset and at least save some of the furniture? The only positive for the ALP might be a chaotic ON/LNP coalition in Victoria giving voters elsewhere pause for thought.
“Maybe JA should consider 50 cent fares like Miles & co in Q. This one stroke saved the furniture and then some!!”
They already did free public transport until the end of last month and it’s now half price until the end of the year.
Well this is grim!
Not wanting to sound too much like the Black Knight, I’m still struggling to see how this is maintained:
1) Neither the Libs nor the orange ones have undergone any scrutiny.
2) Neither have any candidates.
3) The Orange ones don’t have candidates, a leader or any actual policies.
The World has truly gone mad.
And why are we no long reporting on the Green’s vote?
Further we really did need separate tallies for the Liberal Party and the Nationals.
We need the full story.
People have stopped listening to JA long time ago. No 50cent fares will save her. She is toxic.
The ALP brand is in taters. The federal ALP will be very happy about this poll.
I can’t see any good news for vic Labor coming anytime soon.
I’d be suprised if Ben Carrol would even want to challenge for leadership with numbers this bad, better to wait it out then risk losing his career over a near unwinnable situation.
As much as I would expect ONP vote to slowly decline as they are starting to face more scrutiny, most of this isn’t going the ALPs way.
I’m not even sure if a hung parliament is on the cards anymore. This is looking increasingly like it’ll be a majority for the Coalition.
Just lazily eyeballing the pendulum:
Start with 56-28-4-0. A 10% 2pp swing flips that to 26-58-4-0, basically a reversal of the 2022 result. If One Nation make it anywhere near a hung parliament, they’d need a dozen seats from that 58.
From Labor: Bass, Ripon, Melton, Sunbury, Eureka, Macedon, South Barwon. From the Libs / Nats: Morwell, Polwarth, Eildon, Euroa, Narracan, Murray Plains, Gippsland East. Maybe Shepparton and Mildura (recently held by independents). And for a bonus Labor seat the Libs would never win: let’s say Lara. (Ignoring the Greens here: assume they get Prahran back but no new ones.)
So now that’s Lib/Nat 42, ALP 25, ON 17, Grn 4. There’d be a Lib premier, but it’d be pretty shaky.
MABWMsays:
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 5:46 pm
Well this is grim!
Not wanting to sound too much like the Black Knight, I’m still struggling to see how this is maintained:
1) Neither the Libs nor the orange ones have undergone any scrutiny.
2) Neither have any candidates.
3) The Orange ones don’t have candidates, a leader or any actual policies.
The World has truly gone mad.
_______________________
There’s an old political saying you may not be aware of.
‘Oppositions don’t win elections – governments lose them’
Asha says:
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 6:27 pm
I’m not even sure if a hung parliament is on the cards anymore. This is looking increasingly like it’ll be a majority for the Coalition.
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I agree with you Asha. Lib gov’t in majority is my take, on these two polls this week.
We should get the Resolve Poll next Tues/Weds on Vic State intentions too.
Allan should have gone 6 months ago but now will do. It’s also the best she can do for her own reputation rather than selfishly cling on until she’s either pushed or presides over a shellacking in which she will lose her own seat.
She had a very good run as a minister in a long running government, inherited an It’s Time factor and difficult financial headwinds, and couldn’t win the confidence of voters. There’s no shame there if she gets out now.
I had a discussion the other day with someone who was saying it’s too late now but Bracks didn’t have hugely longer before taking on Kennett and that was from opposition.
My disappointment with Allan is it just doesn’t feel like she’s done a damn thing in 18 months to try and connect with the electorate and turn around her polling. There was plenty of time, there’s been positive policies to use along the way, instead it’s just been 18 months of high vis and blustering defiance and sinking numbers. There’s no time to lose to give someone else a shot. They probably can’t do worse at this point.
This is an electorate that gave Labor two landslides just recently. It’s not implacably anti Labor. The furniture can be saved. The VicLibs will do their best to throw the campaign, but it’s for nothing if the voters are going to vote for them no matter what in order to get rid of Allan.
@Taylormade
Taylormade is actually right for once.
Which on the flip side is an issue for Jess Wilson if Labor changes leader and the new person catches on with the public. These numbers don’t reflect any kind of increased confidence in the Libs, it’s all about the government.
Kind of like when Shorten was getting the better of Abbott and later Turnbull. It reflected a loss of confidence in the then PM but not a gain of public liking of Shorten, and both times the leadership change saved the government for the Coalition.
MABWM @ 5.46pm
The Green vote is sitting at 15%
Link: https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/06/12/morgan-labor-26-one-nation-29-5-coalition-17-5-open-thread/comment-page-3/#comment-4732151
The green’s pulled 15.5% on the Morgan poll earlier this week (Fed Poll, not vic state), but the green’s are holding in.
Trent will probably drop by at some stage over the weekend. I sort of agree with the Green seat count he posted on the previous thread. Maybe drop Footscray, but add Hawthorn. I think time might be up for Pesutto in Hawthorn. Hopefully we might get a Redbridge Poll on Vic polling too – they usually break down the vote along geographic and demographic lines which will provide some clarity about where the Green vote is consolidating.
@Arky at 6:40pm
I’m pretty much in agreement with this. Allan’s had her chance but has done very little to turn things around.
Whatever it is she did this time last year to get out of the polling doldrums (maybe it was simply the shine of Labor’s federal election victory?) has clearly worn off by now, and Labor’s primary vote is lower than it was in the NSW 2011 election disaster.
“My disappointment with Allan is it just doesn’t feel like she’s done a damn thing in 18 months to try and connect with the electorate and turn around her polling. There was plenty of time, there’s been positive policies to use along the way, instead it’s just been 18 months of high vis and blustering defiance and sinking numbers. There’s no time to lose to give someone else a shot.”
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Fully agree with you Arky.
About 20 weeks to go. I think this is all at “saving the furniture” level now.
I think she’ll be replaced within a week.
BT Victoria is now recording a 7.7% swing against the gov’t. Very difficult to turn this sort of number around. We’ll see what happens over the next 7 to 10 days
I think Fed election gave a mid 2025 temporary bounce and there was actually no real recovery.
To be fair, I would probably be more happy with a majority Coalition government than a minority government with One Nation. Then at least there will be at least some sensible policies that won’t completely ruin the lives of a huge amount of Victorians, especially people who live in Melbourne which by the way along with Adelaide and Brisbane is one of the most progressive cities in Australia.
I wouldn’t call Brisbane a “progressive city” T.B.M., at the moment.
The last Brisbane City Council election elected 18 LNP members, 5 Labor & 2 Greens.
The recent Stafford by-election showed a swing to the LNP of 4%.
The DemosAU poll posted on the below thread has some grim figures for Labor in Brisbane.
https://www.afr.com/politics/insurgent-labor-must-be-the-disruptive-force-carroll-warns-20260612-p606bv
This article suggests that the “leadership” hinges on a poll which will be published on Monday.
To quote…
“.. some Labor figures pushing for a change say the chance of a spill remains 50-50 and hinges on the findings of a poll to be published on Monday”
I believe they’re referring to the SMH/Age Resolve poll, unless a Redbridge is on the horizon.
Redbridge is usually linked to the AFR.
The article also states that both Labor & Liberal operatives believe the Lib vote in Victoria has been inflated by Freshwater.
Getting a but murky.
Of more importance in Victoria is the “Group Ticket Voting” bulldust in the Upper House.
That has got to go.
A combined right vote of 53% primary, and with about 94% of Victorian’s filling in just “1” above the line, will result in a very strong right wing Legislative Council, if these numbers hold through to November. The Premier had a report last November recommending a change, but she’s sat on that and done nothing.
Even Kennett is recommending the Libs and O.N. work together.
Under the current GTV arrangements, Labor voters who might be thinking of parking a vote for O.N. in the Upper House will find their vote preferences out to the Libs.
Allan has got to get rid of GTV in the next 19 weeks.
Actually she has less time to do this as writs will be issued about 4 weeks prior.
Yeah, I’m deeply disappointed that Labor hasn’t abolished group ticket voting in Victoria, and they deserve the bollocking they’re going to get if they leave it there.
I think Ben Carroll is doing a similar situation with Scott Morrison where he only puts his hand up when Turnbull lost the leadership challenge although for Carroll’s situation it also includes if Allan choose to resign.
The AGE:
“When asked by this masthead why he had come to the event, neo-Nazi Michael “Mickle” Nelson said: “I’m here supporting One Nation, yes. Australia for the white man!”
Nelson and two other members of the now-outlawed National Socialist Network were quickly rounded up and marched away by police as protesters rushed at them, screaming for police to arrest the “Nazi scum”.”
Well the Nazis themselves seem to think Pauline is in their corner.
I now think Labor has left it too late to dump JA, which is bizarre as her horrific popularity ratings should have been a clear indicator to dump her at a minimum 6 months ago. At least with those results the Libs get in with a majority rather than the nightmare scenario of ON being anywhere near power.
Well, if they hang on with Jacinta Allan, don’t be surprised if Victorian Labor ends up with less than 20 seats in the lower house and 10 seats in the upper house.
We would have lost everything just for her. And I’ll repeat again, unlike her, Joan Kirner was actually personally popular in polls leading up to the 1992 election, at least over Kennett.
On these figures, if the Victorian Coalition is competing with One Nation for regional seats, Labor preferences should flow strongly to the Coalition and deliver seats to them in close contests. Unlike in South Australia, One Nation won’t be able to rely on SA Liberal preferences to deliver them seats in contests against SA Labor (e.g. Hammond, Ngadjuri) given the collapse in the Victorian Labor vote would likely leave Labor in third place in many seats in the regions.
One Nation’s best chances may be in the outer suburbs against Labor, where Coalition preferences should flow to One Nation if the Coalition comes third in these seats. But if the Coalition’s vote is holding up in the outer suburbs, as this poll might suggest, even this may not occur.
The Greens could make inroads against Labor in the inner suburbs if their primary vote holds up against Labor.
It would be very interesting to see the regional breakdowns from this poll. I imagine the results of the Nepean by-election should reassure the Victorian Coalition, given One Nation was pushed into third place after the distribution of preferences, leaving the Coalition winning comfortably on a sizeable 2pp swing in their favour (despite their primary vote dropping). And this was a seat One Nation were talking up their chances in.
On those figures. I am betting that ON becomes the official opposition
This is an absolute disaster poll for government no matter how you slice or dice it. Ben Carroll is the man of the hour, just needs someone to bring on the spill. JA should do the right thing and resign.
No Favour:
Labor would surely stay in the top two in the western Vic seats they currently hold (Ballarat x2, Bendigo x2, Ripon, Macedon). One Nation’s lower vote in Albury at the Farrer by-election makes me doubt the first four, but Ripon is probably gone and Macedon has a retiring MP. Then there’s Morwell, which is pretty marginal for the Nats and ticks all the demographic boxes you’d expect for a One Nation win.
Polwarth will potentially be a mess. The Colac end of the seat will be Lib and ON all the way, but the Lorne / Anglesea end is really strong for the Greens, whose preferences should keep Labor in the top two. (Or the Greens could end up there themselves – who wants to see an exotic Green/One Nation 2cp?)
https://yapms.com/app/aus/vic_lower/2022330/blank?m=1rz9p3j0or8381a
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2026vic/nowcast
AEForecasts just updated their nowcast model with the DemosAU poll. The seat count didn’t change, but the Coalition now has an 81% chance of forming government with a 32.2% change of a majority government being formed. Labor meanwhile only has a 10.4% chance of forming government.
This is a shocking result. And I mean that in the literal sense of the word. Jacinta Allan’s policies are not materially different from Dan Andrews but she appears to lack his charisma. Maybe it is because she is a woman, which is a sad indictment on a seemingly progressive electorate.
I also wonder how the Greens could win any seats from Labor? Clearly Labor has governed from the left, not the centre. The only reasons Labor is unpopular is crime and union influence. Clearly those areas are not strengths for the Greens – the Greens or their adjacent supporters want to abolish prisons, and are at least as supportive of union influence as Labor. So why would anyone move from Labor to the Greens? Labor wanting to improve living conditions for public housing tenants by rebuilding their homes to higher standards wouldn’t be enough to flip seats.
Also, to whoever called Brisbane a progressive city…you’ve got to be joking. On ever measure it’s the most right wing capital city in Australia.
Perhaps, just perhaps, instead of throwing unsubstantiated allegations against the CMFEU our Liberal Party friendly media might like to chase down the real criminals
Such as Union Standard International Group the former sponsors of Sheffield United Football Club and South Sydney who have just been fined $300 Million in the Australian Courts for defrauding Investors of their money in Australia
Read the judgement
Then again, maybe not
This is the problem when media are in bed with a political party and frame their reporting accordingly
People lose their hard earned money
And there are plenty of examples across time including currently
These types break the law of the land – but they need to be caught and they are caught after the damage is done
On this, the matter of the former Ivanhoe solicitor who defrauded many then took his own life is a case in point – of many
But lets give the never ending coverage to the unsubstantiated claims of rorting by the CMEFU
Not to white collar crime robbing citizens and otherwise manipulating to pay no tax
There’s probably a reason why media outlets who hate Labor constantly use this image of Allan as the standard stock footage of her.
The fish-out-of-water look for someone seen as a bureaucrat dressed up as a worker with a sour expression hasn’t been helpful for her.
That and the fact that her own seat is in Bendigo when she’s been waltzing around all this time for projects in Melbourne doesn’t help her cause, especially when it seems likely she’ll lose her own seat as well.
So what about the IPA promoter of austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down, that the most effective form of regulation is self regulation and the privatisation of government (so asset sales to the Liberal Party friends in industry and commerce)?
We have been down that course before with Kennett and the reason the Liberal Party has been in opposition since except for the moderate Ted B who was ousted as an elected premier in one term
Kennett pulls IPA Wilson’s strings thru her father who is in the Kennett Group – so old male codgers from the Kennett 7 years, thru which we suffered and continue to suffer because public assets and services were sold off (and otherwise run down)
A social presence, replicating Trump and showcasing what she wears and that she has a young child plus attacking government spending on public projects (by her own words “roads, schools and hospitals”) which should be the analysis and should be the media story, not what she wears and that she has 100,000 followers on social media
Another Julie Bishop – and the damage she has inflicted on the ANU (another disappearing story)
The Age 12/06
She said her followers wanted to “get in there and clean the swamp”.
One Nation has received almost 1200 expressions of interest from people ages 19-94 who want to stand for the party in the upcoming Victorian state election.
_______________________
The 94 year old is keen.
“Scandal ridden” and “drowning in debt”
Please explain
Whatever is being spent on rail, roads, schools, hospitals will be inconsequential over future generations, generations which will benefit from the foresight
It is not the debt, it is the performance of the assets that debt is invested into – in this case public amenity
No one puts the case for investing into the future and the reasons
Instead we get these negative descriptions offered on this site by the usual
In the analysis of debt, the real story Nationwide is private debt, debt which has escalated at an alarming level over the past 3 decades due to the sell off of public assets (Telstra for a start) and the escalation of house prices (due to tax advantages attracting investors)
That private debt needs servicing from salaries and wages
The presentations on here lack analysis, merely repeating a narrative which is not the fact, a narrative presented for party political purposes
The one criticism I do have, coming from the camp that you do it once and you do it properly is that the East/West rail project should not be completed in 3 stages – it should be done now (because costs will escalate over and into the future time span)
Davidsays:
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 10:22 pm
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Any update on the $300m worth of sporting infrastructure that was supposed to transform Geelong for the Commonwealth Games ?
What about the athletes village that was earmarked for social and affordable housing post games ?
Still a paddock the last time I drove past.
I mentioned in other thread that Victoria is currently portrayed much worse than it actually should be by Right-wing media, Commentors, Activist and Influencers helped by the Coalition and One Nation (Pauline Hanson in fact hates Victoria) which is literately identical to the what is done in the US with Right-wing media, Commentors, Activist and Influencers helped by the GOP by portraying California, Chicago and NYC as ‘Liberal Hellholes’ as well as Canada with Right-wing media, Commentors, Activist and Influencers helped by the Canadian Conservatives (and even some from the US) portraying if Canada is a ‘broken’ country run by Trudeau.
nadia,
It’s great to have you on this site, and your contributions are invaluable, but for the love of puppies could you not use so many grocers’ apostrophe’s.*
(And I still say you should start your name with a capital letter, because it’s a proper noun.)
* Yes, this is irony, for those who need it pointed out.
Sunshine,
The Greens want to abolish prisons? I don’t suppose, by any wild chance, you have a source for that remarkable claim?
Nadia,
What do you mean you probably won’t be around for much longer? Is everything okay?
@Marh at 11:05pm
Yes, there’s that, but there’s also the fact that the strategy of scoffing at all these horrible numbers and subsequently ignoring them may very well lead to the worst result for Victorian Labor in the past 100 years, and that includes the time when Victoria was the “Jewel in the Liberal Party Crown” as it was in the Menzies years.