A two-month Victorian state polling drought has ended with a bang, with Freshwater Strategy reporting earlier in the week, DemosAU doing so today, and Resolve Strategic presumably set to follow next week. All of which would seem to be an unwelcome development for Jacinta Allan, with DemosAU joining Freshwater Strategy in showing Labor running third behind One Nation. The Coalition is up a point on the last DemosAU poll in February to 30%, with Labor down two to 21% and One Nation up two to 23%, and the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45.
Jacinta Allan’s positive rating is up two to 18%, but her negative rating is up four to 57% with neutral down six to 25%. Jess Wilson is up five on positive to 32%, down three on neutral to 46% and down two on negative to 22%. The poll was conducted Sunday to Thursday from a sample of 1056. A full report including extensive demographic breakdowns will presumably be available on the pollster’s website shortly – Freshwater Strategy has now published its equivalent from the poll earlier in the week.
nadia,
It looks like you deleted your post. That worries me, but I’ll leave it there.
The firefighters union / Peter Marshall got labelled as the party trying to block the IBAC report.
I think when this washes through, it will only drop the Labor vote further.
There may also be a tipping point in people’s mind that they would rather the Libs over ONP, so the chances of a minority government are very minimal.
Occasionally there is something that no one expects to happen.
Swing against Jess Wilson ,could likely lose her seat ,
not knowing who will be the victorian liberal party leader , may be a factor , Matthew Guy ?
could turn voters off but who knows
Allen should resign as leader on these numbers. She is doing a lot worse than Federal Labor.
All good A.M. It’s been a week of terrible political news, here and overseas.
Looking at that O.N. counter ticking over isn’t ideal either.
The full DemosAU report is here:
Link: https://demosau.com/news/coalition-lead-widens-in-victoria-as-labor-slips-to-third-place/
Labor & Greens very strong in the inner city, but the LNP & O.N. very strong in outer suburban and regional areas.
Greens vote very good for 18-34 year olds, sitting at 33% (overtaking Labor).
Most other demographic and sociographic profiles lean very heavily to a combined O.N.+ LNP vote.
(refer pages 7 & 8)
No seperate Upper House vote (sometimes DemosAU put this in, but not in this report)
Thanks Nadia.
The outer Metro figures are a complete disaster.
Overall falling into third for the ALP will lose a ton of seats. On those figures, you’d think 10 seats would be optimistic.
It looks like being a bit of a wipeout for Labor, but burning a future leader “to save the furniture” is a stupid idea IMO.
It’s a proposition that isn’t falsifiable. Would Labor have done worse if they had stuck with Gillard in 2013? Who knows?
(Anyway, my mail is that quite a few MPs and Senators switched to Rudd in 2013 in the hope that he would be trounced and they would thereby be rid of him for good. And some would suggest that at least one individual saw the exercise as an opportunity to clear both Gillard and Rudd out of the way.)
Anyway, I think they’d do better to stick with Allan and then make a fresh start after the election. But increasingly nervous MPs in marginal seats are certainly going to have their say in the matter.
Ben Carroll would probably prefer to let Allan carry the can for a defeat in November, and then become Opposition Leader and hope the Liberal/National/One Nation government implodes after one term.
And one other thing I always notice about the Premier, at every news conference she’s surrounded by Labor women – deliberate tactic, appealing to the sisterhood?
I can’t help thinking that the orange lady from Ipswich will fairly close to election day pull a leadership rabbit out of her hat. And that rabbit will be named Moira.
Where are the supposed boundaries between inner metro and outer metro?
People keep saying Ben Carroll wants to wait until Jacinta loses but one problem is that Carroll holds a seat that isn’t particularly safe (6.7%)
That’s true. On these numbers it’s likely both Carroll and Allan will lose their seats, and if they do then the Labor leader (assuming they even have enough to be the opposition) would likely be Gabrielle Williams, her seat of Dandenong is at least one of Labor’s safest.
The moment you give up and accept defeat you are cooked. Labor should dump toxic Allan, get behind Carroll and work day and night to avert defeat.
Might not work but can’t be a serious political outfit if you are waiting for the sword with pee running down your legs.
I saw someone on a Discord mention that apparently Steve Dimopolous is a “consensus choice” between the left & right flanks but I have no idea where they heard it, or how reliable that is.
Either way I think he could be a surprisingly good choice.
Given the absolutely unpopularity of this government, people who are closely associated with Allan & Andrews are probably not the best choice even if they are senior. Ben Carroll being education minister probably doesn’t help so soon after teacher strikes either.
Steve Dimopolous is pretty unknown. His portfolio is lower profile but it’s something where Melbourne in particular excels (major events) and is a positive. He has a very safe seat in Oakleigh that’s likely to have a below average swing so unlike Carroll & Allan he doesn’t need to spend as much time defending his own turf, and being Greek will probably help win back some of that cohort of Greek & other European migrant communities who Kos Samaras talks about as having shifted to ON. That may help Labor in some outer north seats too, as well as having a positive effect on neighbouring key seats like Bentleigh and Ashwood. He also seems very likeable (Ben Carroll doesn’t, and Gabrielle Williams absolutely won’t win over the type of voter flocking to ON).
I think someone who is very fresh & unknown would be Labor’s best chance to be competitive.
@Trent
Yeah, I could see Dimopoulos do okay. He’d have a heck of a job to do until November, but if he becomes Premier he could at least potentially bring Labor back in the game and at least get a primary vote that begins with ‘3’.
Sticking with Allan risks that vote beginning with ‘1’.
Interestingly, the regional breakdowns (link above, courtesy of Nadia) show the primary votes for the Victorian Coalition and Victorian Labor are relatively consistent across the state. The Coalition is around 30% everywhere (strongest in the outer suburbs at 32%) and Labor is around 20% everywhere (strongest in the inner suburbs at 23%).
The big regional differences are with the primary votes for the Greens and One Nation. The Greens (19%) are close behind Labor in the inner suburbs (L/NP 30%, ALP 23%), with One Nation a distant fourth (15%). In the outer suburbs, One Nation (25%) is second to the Coalition (32%), with Labor a distant third (19%). In regional Victoria, One Nation (27%) is almost tied with the Coalition (28%), with Labor third (20%).
Labor will likely lose some seats to the Liberals in the inner suburbs, but should be able to hold their safer seats here with strong preference flows from the Greens. The Greens may also pick up some seats around inner Melbourne, especially at the expense of Labor.
There will likely be a bloodbath for Labor in the outer suburbs, with the Coalition the main beneficiary. One Nation will struggle to win seats if they come second to the Coalition in these seats, as Labor preferences will only increase any Coalition lead.
With a similar primary vote to the Coalition in the regions, One Nation may have some wins at the expense of both major parties here. Labor preferences should save the Coalition in most of their current seats. Labor’s handful of existing regional seats might be One Nation’s best chances, especially as these are the regional seats where Labor is more likely to make the top two (as mentioned by Bird of paradox earlier). Jacinta Allan should lose Bendigo East.
The biggest change will likely be the Coalition sweeping the outer suburbs, with more modest changes elsewhere in the state. If an election were held today, the regional breakdowns of this poll strongly suggest there would be a Coalition majority government and a Labor opposition, with preferences likely denying One Nation opposition status even if they come second on primary votes (like in South Australia). One Nation would need to poll much better against the Coalition in the outer suburbs and regions to overcome unfavourable preference flows against them.
Trent
I have been hearing about Steve Dimopoulos as a possible candidate.
He is often on social media spruiking events around the place.
He is quite personable, so it could work.
I have made a calculation comparing the last election with swings outlined by Demos. Using an even swing for each party (admittedly crude but it is a start) – there seem to be only 5 seats in what I defined as Outer Metro where the combined Labor + Greens primary vote exceeds 40% – Carrum, Dandenong, Kalkallo, Mill Park and Thomastown. However, in Carrum and Thomastown the combined Lib + ON vote is over 50%. Admittedly the swing won’t be even, but it shows that Labor are in a world of pain (they could end up behind the Greens in Outer Metro seats) but it would seem to suggest that any outer suburban Labor seat could be won by One Nation – I would put Carrum, Frankston, Pakenham, Hastings, Yan Yean, Sunbury, Melton at the top of that list. In seats that the Libs hold now, it is quite possible that Labor can’t get above third place and would the Libs over the top with any sort of ON surge.
RE: Labor leadership, I think any change will be an improvement because JA is actively dragging their vote down as much as any incumbent leader possibly could.
But replacing her with someone who seems like a natural successor probably minimises the benefit.
Their best chance IMO is a left-field option that represents a break from what most people know or associate with the 12 year old government. That’s why my preference would be someone like Dimopolous who I think ticks the most boxes to get the biggest benefit out of a leadership change.
Of course they also need to pair that with some good policy announcements that represent a bit of a change of direction too.
(I don’t mean scrapping existing ones like activity centres or SRL because they are vitally important, but focus the new policy announcements on something different)
Trent
Agree with your observations
Whats the intention? Win an election or save the furniture? Joan Kirner saved the table and chairs but lost the beds and the couch – and she had two years. At this stage, 5 months out can anyone save what has turned into a train wreck? It really is a poisoned chalice. Has anybody got examples where it has worked – Mark Carney in Canada yes – but the Canadians have had a few doozies where it was a disaster – Kim Campbell, John Turner, Paul Martin.
In Australia? Russell Cooper, Eric Willis, Kristina Keaneally, various South Australians – No, No, No and No. The one thing that may save some of the furniture is that the government is a known entity when everything else – especially because of One Nation – is so unknown. On the other hand, the Victorian electorate may just say – WTF – and go for big time change.
@blackburnpseph
Easy. Malcolm Turnbull overthrowing Tony Abbott, then Scott Morrison overthrowing Malcom Turnbull.
If they dug in stubbornly they would have easily lost the 2016 and 2019 elections, but they changed, and they won.
@ Kirsdarke, they key difference between Turnbull and Morrison is that Turnbull was very popular and optimistic when he oust Tony Abbott who was very unpopular but ended up in only winning the election narrowly whereas Scott Morrison only put his hand up if Turnbull was ousted even though he was less unpopular than Abbott ever was and was initially unpopular until closer to the election to go on to even defy the polls to win.
@Marh
At this point, “winning narrowly” is about the best option that Victorian Labor has at the moment. Sticking with Allan would lead to a worse result than NSW 2011 in my opinion, and it took them 12 years to recover from that, and even then they couldn’t even get a majority.
Unless there is some massive fluke I don’t really see a way of recovery for Vic Labor.
If Allan digs her heels in, (which based upon what she keeps saying in the media, is doing) then any challenge would lead to a month long or several month long replacement process. (I also read somewhere that during the period of a challenge Allan couldn’t be premier? Is that even true?).
This would screw any hopes of recovery over as the party would be seen as widely distracted and likely sink further regardless of who they put in.
Whereas, if they keep her, we already know how that looks to be going.
Really the problem for Vic Labor is they’ve left it too late for the new Premier to establish themselves and clean up the mess in time for the election so if they switch now I’d see it as conceding defeat and hoping the switch would minimise the scale of the loss. The warning signs have been there for over a year with Allan’s dire personal approval ratings and trailing as Better Premier, which in Australian polling history very strongly spell doom at state level (federal is different) – and this is a 12 year old federally dragged state government. But maybe because the Liberals were such a shambles those signs were ignored.
@Tomato64
The best chance for Victorian Labor is if Jacinta Allan voluntarily resigns in the next month.
She would still remain Premier if it came to a challenge, which I hope it doesn’t, since the challenger would likely lose, because it’d suck even more because she wouldn’t even claim to be head of a united party in November.
Kevin Bonham
The warning signs were ignored by many Labor people after 2022, where Labor had a 2% TPP swing against it but Labor people chose to only see Labor gaining 1 seat.
Many Labor supporters forget politics isn’t static, and took it for granted Labor would win as younger progressive voters replaced older conservative voters, and as projects were completed. After pointing out the opening of the City loop didn’t save the Liberals in 1982, someone accused me of being a Liberal, this is the problem with Labor’s mindset.
It’ll be interesting to see what way Labor chooses to go but if they are going to change leader it has to be very soon
Hanson is saying they’ll run candidates in every seat, there will be lots of duds amongst them which might mean they don’t win as many seats as expected. Although many will vote for the brand rather than the person
Will the Liberals try and do a preference deal with them? That could come back to bite in some seats plus based on what happened in South Australia, they might say no
Great to see the Greens pulling good numbers where it matters i.e. in the areas they can win
It’s going to be a fascinating election
If Victorian Labor dump Jacinta Allan, a new leader could help save the furniture, though saving the government seems unrealistic on these numbers. However, the Victorian Coalition would be able to present itself as stable under Jess Wilson against whoever takes over as premier, which is some achievement given the turnover in leaders of the Liberals.
Labor’s very narrow win over the Liberals in the Werribee by-election last year (on less than 51% 2pp) looks like a pyrrhic victory now. If they had lost Werribee, they might have learnt something from the defeat. Now, Werribee and plenty of other similar seats would be easily falling to the Liberals if Labor’s primary vote is only 19% in the outer suburbs.
The signs were bad at the last election, when Labor’s primary dropped more than six percent, a figure that would have been considered catastrophic at any other time in history.
Sadly (and predictably), because our electoral system doesn’t value the number of votes you get as highly as where you get ’em, just about every Labor supporter ignored the warnings.
And now it’s probably too late to head off a disaster of epic proportions.
The Lib vote is holding up, which means that most Melbourne metro contests will be traditional Lib v Lab when it comes down to the 2CP stage. The 20% (thereabouts) O.N. vote will mainly distribute to the Libs.
In rural/regional area’s, it may be a Lib/Nat v ON final 2PP with Labor voter’s determining who wins the seat. I’m pretty sure Labor voters will preference the Libs ahead of O.N.
So, based on these two recent polls in Victoria, I would suggest a fairly solid Lib Lower House win, well in majority.
The Upper House – well JA has 19 weeks to fix this. On current trends, it look’s like a fairly right wing Legislative Council, meaning Jess Wilson will be able to get all her legislation through.
Remember, in Vic, the Upper House vote is not statewide. Via electoral amendments in 2002, the Bracks gov’t created seperate Upper House divisions (roughly 3 in rural area’s and 5 in metro areas).
This will help to consolidate the “right wing” vote in rural area’s – electing more members.
Moving forward:
It’s too late to do it now, but it would be better if Victoria had a statewide vote for the 40 Upper House members, and preferably split the terms of members (ie: 20 up one election, 20 up the next election).
nadia, nadia, nadia… *heavy sigh*
“area’s”, “voter’s”, and “look’s like” all in one post? What did I tell you?
Remarkably, “gov’t” is actually correct (a contraction), so that’s on the plus side.
Herald Sun 13/06
The depths of the CFMEU’s influence over the former Labor Government has been revealed in shocking detail this week – and Queenslanders can’t be blamed for being left appalled and angry.
Just days after allegations were aired at an inquiry into the CFMEU that ex-minister Mick de Brenni pressured the building regulator to take action against contractors the union targeted, further concerning evidence has emerged in a separate case.
Workplace Health and Safety director Helen Burgess this week lost her appeal to overturn her suspension from the Office of Industrial Relations, and the decision was damning in its detail.
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God knows what the the Royal Commission (if the Liberals win) is going to uncover.
This would take up a fair portion of their 1st term so I wouldn’t be predicting them to crash and burn like some are.
Re Blackburnpseph @3:35 PM.
Eric Willis – he went in after ten years of corrupt Coalition rule in NSW under Bob Askin, who got to retire at a time of his own choosing. He was followed by a year of bumbling under Tom Lewis, who seemed to fancy himself a Southern Jo Bjelke Petersen or a Northern Henry Bolte. Then as now the Liberals don’t tolerate losers or likely losers, so in January 1976 with about 10 months to go to the next election, they shoved Lewis and installed Eric Willis, a cleanskin and moderate, who might have proved a good Premier given time. However, he called an early election after a just a few months in office and lost – by one seat. And the rest is history.
Taylormade says:
Saturday, June 13, 2026 at 10:15 pm
God knows what the the Royal Commission (if the Liberals win) is going to uncover.
This would take up a fair portion of their 1st term so I wouldn’t be predicting them to crash and burn like some are.
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Lol Taylormade
While we’re talking about dumping unpopular leaders, or better yet having them retire, can I add Albo to the list. You know it makes sense
MOU due to be signed between the US and Iran tomorrow, I hope it works out although Israel isn’t happy so there’s a fair chance it won’t. Unfortunately. I wonder if Trump will be willing to walk away from Netanyahu?
I can’t imagine Burnham shaking things up too much if he takes over, unfortunately. The UK needs a different direction, not more of the same
Big protests against hate in Belfast and Glasgow overnight, well done to all those who stepped up to support multiculturalism. Will we be doing the same here if One Nation continues to rise? They ran away from the little one in Melbourne on Friday
Hopefully the Socceroos can chalk up a surprise win today, even a draw would be a good start. The Guardian ran a video the team made in support of multiculturalism yesterday, proud of our boys for stepping up
Oops sorry about
Feel free to delete William, I’ll post it where it’s meant to be
What to believe. MSM reported that the anti one nation protest in Melbourne other night, had about 50 protestors.
I just saw this on social media. What to believe?
https://x.com/vic_socialists/status/2065411414551138809/video/1
Labor will get smashed and it will be their own fault. They have been aware for about a year that Allan is extremely unpopular – by a ratio of greater than 2 to 1 voters disapprove of her. That is almost unheard of in Australian politics. They could have replaced her but haven’t. She just has not worked out as a leader and they have failed to admit that mistake.
They still could replace her and they might actually save a lot of furniture. Heck, it might even put them in a place to scrap out a narrow win. But they are fully committed to a kamikaze charge into the election with her as leader. It is fully blown insanity from the Victorian Labor party.
B S Fairman
The next few weeks will be telling
Raf on Insiders saying that if Jacinta doesn’t agree to go it won’t happen
That’s probably sensible
Also suggested that Labor has polling showing they are in the teens
Hard Being Greensays:
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 10:27 am
Raf on Insiders saying that if Jacinta doesn’t agree to go it won’t happen
That’s probably sensible
Also suggested that Labor has polling showing they are in the teens.
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I’ll have to watch that. He is their biggest fan.
Gives Jess Wilson a grilling whenever she’s on.
Just watched it on iview
The faction leaders will have to give her a tap.
Hard Being Green says:
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 10:27 am
Raf on Insiders saying that if Jacinta doesn’t agree to go it won’t happen
That’s probably sensible
Also suggested that Labor has polling showing they are in the teens
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Not sure which poll Insiders is referring to – I’m guessing it’s Resolve although we’re well overdue for a Redbridge Vic Poll. The Resolve state poll is due soon and the article in today’s Age has Jim Reed (Resolve Director) quoted as saying it will drop on Monday.
Last state Resolve had the following figures (from 18-April)
* ALP 27
* LNP 29
* ON 21
* GRN 10
* Remainder 13
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
Getting that down to an ALP primary with a “1” in front would require an 8 point move, which is very unlikely so the ABC report must be referring to something else (may a seat or particular demographic). Resolve can bounce a bit, but it’s not that bouncy. I’d be tipping something like ALP 24, LNP 26, ON up & Greens def up.
Anyway, another poster upthread also mentioned ALP state polling possibly beginning with a “1”.
We’ll see
Jacinta Allan knows she is going to lose her own seat if she stands at November election.
She will have to decide to leave politics at the next election, and have someone else stand in that seat.
Time is of the essence.
So there is that.
Ante Meridian says:
Saturday, June 13, 2026 at 9:22 pm
nadia, nadia, nadia… *heavy sigh*
“area’s”, “voter’s”, and “look’s like” all in one post? What did I tell you?
Remarkably, “gov’t” is actually correct (a contraction), so that’s on the plus side.
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LOL A.M.
I’ll keep an eye on the apostrophes!
Ante Meridian says:
Saturday, June 13, 2026 at 9:22 pm
nadia, nadia, nadia… *heavy sigh*
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Nitpicking.
Just on today’s age article – Kos Samaras addressed an ALP meeting earlier this year. Following on from that some union bloke – Luke Hilakari – is quoted in the article stating 30 gov’t seats are in trouble.
Hmmm. Might have a Redbridge-Accent poll on Victoria looming too. (Samaras being a Director of Redbridge)
The Federal Resolve poll will drop around 6PM tonight, and this will also contain Fed figures coming out of Vic. The State Resolve poll tomorrow, possibly a Redbridge-Accent on the horizon.
I’m guessing The Oz would’ve asked Pyxis to perhaps produce a Vic Newspoll too.
Anyway, finally good to start getting some Victorian polling out.
Taylormade says:
Sunday, June 14, 2026 at 11:34 am
Ante Meridian says:
Saturday, June 13, 2026 at 9:22 pm
nadia, nadia, nadia… *heavy sigh*
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Nitpicking.
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All good Taylormade.
Thks for sticking your neck out the other day too.
Owe you one.