A new poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research for the Financial Review is the strongest yet for One Nation from any pollster, recording a four-point increase on last month’s result to 31%. This puts them well clear of Labor, who are down three to 28%, and particularly the Coalition, who are down two to 20%, while the Greens are down a point to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures have Labor with leads of 51-49 over both One Nation and the Coalition, which are respectively in from 55-45 and 54-46 last time.
Anthony Albanese’s combined very favourable and mostly favourable rating is down five to 29%, with unfavourable and very unfavourable up five to 48%, and neither down two to 18%. Pauline Hanson is steady on 40% positive, down one to 40% negative and down one to 14% neutral. Angus Taylor is up one to 21% positive, up three to 25% negative and down four to 23% neutral. Whereas Albanese and Hanson have near total name recognition, 21% say they have never heard from Taylor, down only one on last month. Jim Chalmers’ positive rating is down five to 17% and his negative rating is up eight to 35%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down two to 31%, Pauline Hanson up two to 25% and Angus Taylor steady on 14%. Questions on the budget have 23% rating it good for the country as a whole and 53% bad, with 11% saying it would be good for them personally and 48% bad. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1005.
Also just out is a Fox & Hedgehog poll in the News Corp tabloids, which has Labor on 29% (down a point on the last such poll in late March), One Nation on 27% (up four) and the Coalition on 25% (up two), with no result provided in the report for the Greens (UPDATE: Down three to 10%). Respondent-allocated two-party preferred results have the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, reversing the result from the last poll, and Labor leading One Nation 54-46, in from 56-44. The poll also finds 40% agreeing that Pauline Hanson and One Nation are ready for government, with 45% disagreeing. The sample for the poll was 1700, with field work dates not disclosed – hopefully more detail will be provided shortly by the pollster.
UPDATE: Full report from Fox & Hedgehog here. Angus Taylor notably holds a lead on 38-36 lead over Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 39-35 in late March. Albanese is down one on approval to 29%, steady on 19% neutral and up two on disapproval to 51%; Taylor is up five on approval to 29%, down two on neutral to 32% and up five on disapproval to 29% (“never heard of” is down from 18% to 10%). A hypothetical question inclusive of a teal party had it on 6%, with Labor three points to lower at 26%, the Greens one point lower at 9% and the others essentially unchanged. Voluminous further questions on the budget include an overall finding of 19% favourable, 47% unfavourable and 25% neutral. Thirty-two per cent said they had seen the much-hyped social media memes on the budget tax policies, with 60% saying they had not.
Steve777says:
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 10:40 pm
==============================
“But we will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come,”
Then he went about doing so.
GrannyAnny says:
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 10:33 pm
I have just blogged in. I note that Jolly Jumbuck had a few posts before being challenged as to whether or not he supported the wage increase for low paid workers.
——————————————
Australia has one of the highest minimum wages anywhere in the world then there is the superannuation on top with lots of worker entitlements. Perhaps we should be asking ourselves why is this country so stupidly expensive to begin with that you struggle on $1000 a week when that amount of money in other countries means you are doing OK. Especially when Australia ranks so extremely low in important things like economic complexity.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 10:42 pm
Labor has been building support amongst younger educated middle class voters, this budget took from those groups.
===========================================
It took from the asset wealthy class. Which very few in the demographic you outlined actually are.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/12/australia-federal-budget-2026-generation-wars-boomers-gen-x-y-millennials-impacts-by-age-group-demographics-students-pensioners
Landlord of the year you do realize that arm there’s two more years to an election there’s a lot of good stuff they can do also hmm you know what I’m gonna make a news pole prediction 55 to 45 liberals and 60 to 40 to one nation might let the crazy ones out of the way first
Jolly Jumbucksays:
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 10:44 pm
GrannyAnny says:
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 10:33 pm
I have just blogged in. I note that Jolly Jumbuck had a few posts before being challenged as to whether or not he supported the wage increase for low paid workers.
——————————————
Australia has one of the highest minimum wages anywhere in the world then there is the superannuation on top with lots of worker entitlements. Perhaps we should be asking ourselves why is this country so stupidly expensive to begin with that you struggle on $1000 a week when that amount of money in other countries means you are doing OK. Especially when Australia ranks so extremely low in important things like economic complexity.
========================================
So just another boomer not wanting young salaried Australians to get the fair go your generation got.
This guy’s over the top, but the evidence suggests that the GOP should have other interests:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMUutMyCB30
Entropy
Labor has been improving its vote in wealthier middle class areas to now hold middle class seats across suburban Australia.
What nonsense on minimum wages! As if the minimum wage has anything to do with our economic complexity?? Building more economic complexity and value adding is about adding more high tech manufacturing that requires highly skilled workers that earn good wages.
As for the minimum wage, it’s crocodile tears from corporate Australia. Many minimum wage workers are in retailing and fast food etc. In these businesses wages are less than half of costs. The biggest cost increase in recent years has been in building rentals. Many big supermarkets only pay 20§ of costs or less in wages.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 10:51 pm
Entropy
Labor has been improving its vote in wealthier middle class areas to now hold middle class seats across suburban Australia.
============================================
The middle class doesn’t have huge amounts of assets it is the upper class that do.
“AI Overview
In Australia, the wealthiest 20% of households own approximately 63% of the nation’s total private wealth.”
Like seriously, One Nation want to double AUKUS, completely shut down the NDIS, and consider all public institutions as a personal attack on Pauline. Hows their vote doing? Are more backflips and broken promises really the answer?
And every progressive commentator, claiming that changing negative gearing and CGT would usher some lefty utopia where the implementing party would be greeted with gilded streets and an instantaneous jump in the birth rate, have since proven to be lunatics. Clearly the “mild and timid” approach is what most Aussies wanted, minimal change and “someone else” pay for it.
The deed is done now and should focus on passing CGT and NG quickly. If the LNP block NDIS changes, so what, nobody cares about the deficit any more.
The ones who Labor actually needs to win back now are those marginal One Nation voters – LNP die-hards are no chance, Greens voters are split between wannabe teals and the socialist alliance, and the teals are just “don’t tax meee” types too.
The main game for Labor is to convince the nation that it has a credible migration plan, no more excuses about “bounce back” or catchup growth. I mean fuck me, I’ve been specifically warning about this over a year now, i showed people the numbers yet no one believed me.
This and a credible tax cut plan in 2027 to show that the CGT change was worth it.
Its really simple- cost of living is intrinsically linked to migration now, and everyone is feeling overtaxed. The popular pivot is there, it just needs to be taken.
Israel and Russia have both been deservedly added to the UN blacklist for use of sexual violence in conflicts.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/05/29/israel-and-russia-added-to-un-blacklist-on-sexual-violence-in-conflicts_6753926_4.html
Let nobody say that Israel is our ally! We should be taking actions more like this.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2026/06/02/french-government-restricts-israel-s-official-participation-in-the-eurosatory-defense-trade-show_6754035_19.html
If Defence won’t do it out of any sense of morality, perhaps the government might consider the chance of winning back a few votes.
@Quentin Rountree says: Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 10:32 pm
“Jolly Jumbuck the problem Pauline Hanson has is sure at the moment she’s popular but what happens when she has to make some decisions she’s going to be in the same situation Peter is remember we’re the only ones keeping tabs on it at the moment like say 10% once it hits election campaign and let’s be honest about Hanson she’s a grievance party also I think it people giving Anthony s*** he’s pretty smart I think go through rough patch now and not worry about doing the hard stuff two years before an election.”
~~
Despite the various controversies and gaffes by Bernadi (or even ONP candidates like Aoi Baxter) and more recently, David Farley in Farrer, ONP has still managed to bring home the bacon and achieve a relatively good night for them. In the case of Farley in Farrer, he really romped it home in 2pp and Primary Votes.
I’ve seen people try to calm others down by saying once the campaign nears election day and more scrutiny is placed upon them, they will crumble like Xenophon’s SA BEST or Dutton’s Liberals. Yet, it doesn’t seem like it has happened so far in any of the major electoral tests for ONP.
Like Trump, ONP is like Teflon at this point. Nothing will stick regardless of how stupid, corrupt or morally repugnant one thinks a gaffe is.
Entropy
Labor has been winning over people in the top 20%. It’s how Labor won Menzies, Sturt, Boothby, Tangney, and lead TPP against the Liberals in Sydney’s Teal seats.
The top 20% isn’t exclusive, it’s professionals, it’s mid to senior level public servants, it’s senior teachers and nurses.
“The top 20% isn’t exclusive, it’s professionals, it’s mid to senior level public servants, it’s senior teachers and nurses.”
Yeh would love to see the stats of the top 20% teachers and nurses…
Jolly Jumbuck, you didn’t actually say whether or not you support the rise.
Yes, we should look at the reason the cost of living is so high. One obvious reason is housing, partly because the system was skewed to benefit landlords instead of homeowners and we have a shortage of tradesmen because no one wants to pay for their training, and if we import tradesmen from elsewhere the right wingers threaten to deport them.
Food prices are also high, partly because the profits taken by retailers are substantial. Freight costs are a significant contributor to the cost of living because have to import most of our fuel.
And the top few percent produce 90% of the noise.
Bludgeoned Westie I’m just going to keep it short the problem is sure they win some seats as one nation I said this on Reddit our voting is not America or UK and also with how one nation defections they need to be an Opposition Party before anyone could consider running government and that’s where I said Labor has 94 seats how the hell can one nation get them. Also yeah Pauline does have a sensitive skin she gets butt hurt real easily. I mean it’s also being a year Momentum doesn’t last you do know that in politics 1 minute you have think that you’re leading you’re going to get into government next minute you’re giving your concession speech
If anyone wants to understand what Labor needs to do to turn things around they need to implement some real tax reform and stop the tax gouging. They are out of control. The CGT and NG tax grab is one thing but it is all take and then take some more. Consider this when they first came to power a full time worker on minimum wage paid 9.71% of their income in tax. Next year it is going up to 12.37%. The cost of living crisis is a cost of tax crisis. Stop blaming the media, the ALP need to build their economic credentials and if they don’t do that real soon they will deserve to lose the next election in a land slide.
GrannyAnnysays:
Food prices are also high, partly because the profits taken by retailers are substantial.
__________________
Coles and Woolworths have slightly higher profit margins than comparable supermarket chains overseas. The margins have increased a little since COVID but they are not significantly higher.
Jacobin I mean at the moment it Labor is pretty comfy but all how can one nation get into government when they’re starting from two seats and I don’t want to hear this s*** one nation needs more than 30% of their own base pick up some Labor and some liberals but I’m starting to get sick of people here that one pole makes an election two years you know what I hope is news poll comes out at its 70 to 30 to the one nation party it’s with how some people acting they seem to think it is
It is more than one poll it is a clear trend and it is only going to get worse if the ALP don’t stop the out of control taxation, I like a lot of people feel let down but their economic management. Bob Hawke must be rolling in his grave at what the ALP have become.
@Quentin Rountree says: Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 11:09 pm
Bludgeoned Westie I’m just going to keep it short the problem is sure they win some seats as one nation I said this on Reddit our voting is not America or UK and also with how one nation defections they need to be an Opposition Party before anyone could consider running government and that’s where I said Labor has 94 seats how the hell can one nation get them. Also yeah Pauline does have a sensitive skin she gets butt hurt real easily
~~~
Preferential voting accounting for the 2nd choices/preferences of all voters does make it harder for Populists to win seats compared to FPTP. However, pouring your hopes of stopping ONP on Preferential alone is unwise. Iirc ONP vote is high enough to the point where they’re first on primary votes, they’re in a good position to win a seat. Also, this might be an unfounded assumption of mine but if the LIB to ONP preferences strengthens, ONP could scrape in enough outer suburban seats to get close to 70 seats.
On another one of your points, yes, historically, there’s a ~75% chance a ONP MP quits the party within their first term, we’re living in times where the orthodox view of Australian politics is breaking. It used to be thought that ONP can’t win a Federal Seat at an election/by-election, but Farrer broke that assumption. Given ONP’s meteoric rise, the newly elected MPs in SA and Farley might think twice before choosing to resign from the party to sit as an independent; they may find themselves benefitting more with ONP than going separate ways.
For now the 94 seat buffer means that I think Labor can at least scrape through 1 more term. However recent polling gives me a gut feeling that this buffer may not be as strong as it’s hyped up to me. 2031 is going to be a doozy.
Re Jacobin
Oddly precise. Two significant figures would be more than enough. Source?
No it isn’t. What, war are disruption of oil supplies had nothing to do with it?
Bizzcan
I haven’t heard Hanson’s policy on AUKUS. Do you have a link to it? Overall I still see AUKUS as a second order factor on voting. Tax and cost of living are obviously the biggest. Immigration varies depending on where you live. Here in SA I don’t think it’s as critical as elsewhere.
Jacobin says:
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 11:10 pm
If anyone wants to understand what Labor needs to do to turn things around they need to implement some real tax reform and stop the tax gouging. They are out of control. The CGT and NG tax grab is one thing but it is all take and then take some more. Consider this when they first came to power a full time worker on minimum wage paid 9.71% of their income in tax. Next year it is going up to 12.37%. The cost of living crisis is a cost of tax crisis. Stop blaming the media, the ALP need to build their economic credentials and if they don’t do that real soon they will deserve to lose the next election in a land slide.
_____________
Exactly. It is awful that minimum wage earners pay more tax than ever before. It is not like the minimum wage increased over 25% since the government was elected. That has no bearing on how much tax one pays proportionally.
Hang on….
Steve
Agreed re tax and cost of living. In fact we have seen a large reduction in fuel tax to reduce the cost of living.
Two thoughts. Firstly it’s quite a ways out from the election and anyone with half a brain should be aware of the ALP’s political play here. They’re burning political capital now in the hopes that it’ll wash out of the system before the next election and also people have enough time to get used to the changes. And I expect in the next couple of budgets they’ll assist in people getting over it by doing the reduction in income taxes side of the taxation equation
Secondly, One Nation are volatile. At this rate it seems very possible that they win as many seats as the Coalition at least. Possibly entirely wiping the Coalition out in some states. But they’re a party of grievance, they attract candidates who don’t trust the “system”. Those kinds of people historically don’t play nicely in party structures. It’ll be like Palmer United in 2013, on steroids. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if some ended up defecting to the ALP, or even the Greens. It’ll be a shitshow
Crocodile tears. It’s the guy with nine or ninety investment properties, the guy with $5 million in their super, the guy who disguises income as capital gains that you’re upset about.
A Coalition Government would have opposed every increase. Now that we are making a start on making the rent-seekers, the speculators, the evaders, the avoiders pay their tax, and hopefully at some stage the multinationals, maybe we’d be in a better position to do something about it.
Jolly Jumbuck( an activist not a typical voter) couldn’t see past the sledge to answer the question- how do you win government with 30 or even 40% primary when the majority hate ON? Even more so when the vote is inefficiently concentrated beyond the black stump. In Farrer ON didn’t win Albury. So how is it going to win urban seats?
Socrates says:
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 11:27 pm
Bizzcan
Like seriously, One Nation want to double AUKUS, completely shut down the NDIS, and consider all public institutions as a personal attack on Pauline. Hows their vote doing? Are more backflips and broken promises really the answer?
I haven’t heard Hanson’s policy on AUKUS. Do you have a link to it? Overall I still see AUKUS as a second order factor on voting. Tax and cost of living are obviously the biggest. Immigration varies depending on where you live. Here in SA I don’t think it’s as critical as elsewhere.
_______________________________________
I’m of course being flippant in the “doubling” out of exasperation – here is her view as most recently stated:
https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Hansard/Hansard_Display?bid=chamber/hansards/28816/&sid=0046
“Under AUKUS, America will hand over to Australia the most closely-guarded military technology on the planet, nuclear propulsion. Yet our current Labor government is publicly appearing less than grateful for this generous support from the arsenal of democracy. Labor is ghosting our most important ally, the United States, and, to all appearances, is sucking up to Communist China, Australia’s most potent adversary. China routinely commits acts of aggression against Australia as if it’s entitled to do so, and it is not hiding its intentions to militarily and economically dominate our region.”
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/hanson-outlines-one-nation-agenda-at-surprise-mar-a-lago-address/fyjltejve
“Hanson said One Nation backs the AUKUS security partnership and supports increasing Australia’s defence spending to 5 per cent.”
Jolly Jumbuck doesn’t have to say that they oppose the minimum and award pay rise. Their party leader has done that for them. For good measure, she is also on record opposing the Budget’s income tax cut – the WATO.
PAULINE HANSON OPPOSES YOUR PAY RISE.
PAULINE HANSON OPPOSES YOUR TAX CUT.
Yeah I also think people need to realise Pauline Hansen’s voting record against the workers you only need to peel a couple of percentage points off one nation and for Labor that’s to do then the coalition. So I read some of the policies well I read the Medicare one which is weird Labour’s already doing what one nation wanted also apparently we’re going to have coal power stations yeah that’s gonna do wonders considering in two years time there’s going to be more renewables
Well known grifter Donald Trump is all on board with AUKUS.
So what more evidence is needed to show that it’s a terrible idea?
nadia at 5.37 pm
“* Taylor demands early election” (Sky News)
That is funny when you know the context. The reason Taylor wants an early election, which obviously won’t occur, is to delay his inevitable loss to Hastie.
Taylor is the Claytons-Lib leader, more useless than any Lib since Snedden.
QR, the bedwetters have been out in force tonight on the thread. Stay dry!
nadia at 8.54 and 9.11 pm, Entropy at 9.02 pm
The NZ budget was delivered last Thursday. There have been no major polls reporting so far. Morgan sample size is only 870 and spread over a month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
newy boy my problem with the people here it’s like one nation has Momentum it’s like yeah it does but it’s like Momentum can change like I read some of the policies on one nation and it’s like how are you going to sell them to Urban areas like you can’t win an election with regional and outer suburb it seems that everyone forgot that and we’re looking at a one nation forever party Hell by the time the election happens she’s going to be 74 years old
Bludgeoned Westie at 1.56 and 11.24 pm
Did you read the analysis from Ms A. Rambles that Leroy linked 11.01 pm Mon?
“It’s certainly probable that One Nation will win some regional seats, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see some Nationals win from behind, by virtue of cleaning up on preferences. To win in the Victorian regions, One Nation will need more than to simply overtake the Nationals or the Coalition. They will need a landslide.”
https://alisonrambles.ghost.io/can-one-nation-wipe-out-the-victorian-nationals/
Her detailed analysis of the SA results in the context of the Vic election contradicts your assumption that the “ONP vote is high enough to the point where they’re first on primary votes, they’re in a good position to win a seat.”
It is much more complicated with preferential voting, as Quentin and others have pointed out. E.g. when much of the Tory rump of the electorate has migrated to the Hanson cult, don’t assume that the remaining Lib preferences will pass to the cult at a very high rate.
You need some more weeks of polling to get a clear trend. Remember what P. Brent (Mumble) has often said: polling a long way out from an election is hardly predictive of future trends, as distinct from being a clear echo of a current crisis (e.g. Libs’ decline).
As B.S. Fairman pointed out earlier, those people telling pollsters they would vote for the Hanson cult have not bothered to think at all about her policies, parliamentary attendance, staff selection, chronic rorting etc.
Hanson herself makes the Nat shooter, B. McKenzie, look an honest woman, rather than someone chronically addicted to excess gravy-boating.
Quentin Rountree
Polling isn’t terminal and is predictable, impact of higher inflation, higher interest rates, a rough budget and tough jobs market.
Flights cancelled sweeping Europe.
https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/yb9tvs3r7no5/
Landlord using polling results this year and expecting it to be the same in 28 is stupid
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, June 2, 2026 at 11:39 pm
Crocodile tears. It’s the guy with nine or ninety investment properties, the guy with $5 million in their super, the guy who disguises income as capital gains that you’re upset about.
A Coalition Government would have opposed every increase. Now that we are making a start on making the rent-seekers, the speculators, the evaders, the avoiders pay their tax, and hopefully at some stage the multinationals, maybe we’d be in a better position to do something about it.
____________
Just to be clear, I should have added a sarcasm emoji in my response to Jacobin 🙂
New thread.
An interesting podcast with David Frum..
Basically the mafia behavior of Trump, Trump not the just most corrupt POTUS ever.. probably the most corrupt leader of any “ democracy” anywhere at any time..
Take away.. the English lopped of Charles I head for trying what Trump is doing.
“Now, if there’s one principle, one foundational constitutional principle the United States has insisted on since the beginning and inherited from England beforehand, it is that any money the executive has must come from the legislature.
No taxation without representation. If the executive has money, the legislature has to approve it, or there has to be some legal mechanism, like a legal settlement. The last head of government of an English-speaking country to try in a serious way to create revenue that the legislature had no say over was Charles I of England, and the English cut his head off for it.
And ever since the English cut off the head of Charles I, it’s been well understood, if the executive wants money, it has to ask the legislature, or you can win maybe because of a court settlement. But Donald Trump said not that, so I think this is as unconstitutional thing as a president can do. I arguably, I mean, more than creating a state religion where we have to bring sacrifices to ball and worship, bring golden calves to sacrifice.
That’s a violation of the first amendment, but the amendment is just an amendment. This is
”
From Talking Feds: David Frum’s Unified Thesis of Trump’s Failings, 4 Jun 2026
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/talking-feds/id1456045551?i=1000771134843&r=1591
This material may be protected by copyright.
The full Redbridge/Accent Report has turned up on the Accent website
Link: https://www.accent-research.com/projects/afr%2C-redbridge-group-and-accent-research-may-2026-federal-poll
Probably of note is the calculation of their respondent allocated preferences on page 12.
No state breakdowns unfortunately.