A new poll from RedBridge Group/Accent Research for the Financial Review is the strongest yet for One Nation from any pollster, recording a four-point increase on last month’s result to 31%. This puts them well clear of Labor, who are down three to 28%, and particularly the Coalition, who are down two to 20%, while the Greens are down a point to 12%. Respondent-allocated two-party measures have Labor with leads of 51-49 over both One Nation and the Coalition, which are respectively in from 55-45 and 54-46 last time.
Anthony Albanese’s combined very favourable and mostly favourable rating is down five to 29%, with unfavourable and very unfavourable up five to 48%, and neither down two to 18%. Pauline Hanson is steady on 40% positive, down one to 40% negative and down one to 14% neutral. Angus Taylor is up one to 21% positive, up three to 25% negative and down four to 23% neutral. Whereas Albanese and Hanson have near total name recognition, 21% say they have never heard from Taylor, down only one on last month. Jim Chalmers’ positive rating is down five to 17% and his negative rating is up eight to 35%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Anthony Albanese down two to 31%, Pauline Hanson up two to 25% and Angus Taylor steady on 14%. Questions on the budget have 23% rating it good for the country as a whole and 53% bad, with 11% saying it would be good for them personally and 48% bad. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1005.
Also just out is a Fox & Hedgehog poll in the News Corp tabloids, which has Labor on 29% (down a point on the last such poll in late March), One Nation on 27% (up four) and the Coalition on 25% (up two), with no result provided in the report for the Greens (UPDATE: Down three to 10%). Respondent-allocated two-party preferred results have the Coalition leading Labor 51-49, reversing the result from the last poll, and Labor leading One Nation 54-46, in from 56-44. The poll also finds 40% agreeing that Pauline Hanson and One Nation are ready for government, with 45% disagreeing. The sample for the poll was 1700, with field work dates not disclosed – hopefully more detail will be provided shortly by the pollster.
UPDATE: Full report from Fox & Hedgehog here. Angus Taylor notably holds a lead on 38-36 lead over Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, after Albanese led 39-35 in late March. Albanese is down one on approval to 29%, steady on 19% neutral and up two on disapproval to 51%; Taylor is up five on approval to 29%, down two on neutral to 32% and up five on disapproval to 29% (“never heard of” is down from 18% to 10%). A hypothetical question inclusive of a teal party had it on 6%, with Labor three points to lower at 26%, the Greens one point lower at 9% and the others essentially unchanged. Voluminous further questions on the budget include an overall finding of 19% favourable, 47% unfavourable and 25% neutral. Thirty-two per cent said they had seen the much-hyped social media memes on the budget tax policies, with 60% saying they had not.
Seems the pollsters are jumping around a bit on where One Nation and the LNP are sitting. Labor pretty consistently sub 30 on average now. Greens look to be stuck around 12
Hopefully Zack’s address to the Victorian Greens campaign conference sparks a change in their approach. I think it’s a good call for them to take on One Nation more directly than they have been. It’s hard to argue they can be ignored because they aren’t a legitimate threat anymore
Although trying to keep the government in check is still the most important thing
Thanks WB
Not quite earth-shattering, but clear down-trends and across the board. The non-VI questions are actually more damning for Labor than the VI ones themselves.
Mirrored, thinking about it, by significant up-trends for ON, in their case esp on VI.
Though also surprised to see that 40% of Australians apparently now see ON as ready for government – had you asked me to hypothesise on that, I’d have assumed that’d be a weak spot for them. Given the history of ‘ON vs. everyone else’ almost, you’d have to be pretty pleased with that if you are ON/Pauline Hanson.
Hard Being Green says:
Monday, June 1, 2026 at 6:23 am
Seems the pollsters are jumping around a bit on where One Nation and the LNP are sitting. Labor pretty consistently sub 30 on average now. Greens look to be stuck around 12
———————————————
There is normally 1 or 2 opinion polls each week, which are opposite with other opinion polling show
Safe to say, opinion polling companies narration are not learning much from pre 2025 federal election.
Where they were underestimating Labor primary vote , by majority of time having Labor primary vote under 30% , after the voice referendum, is one nation the pre 2028 federal election version
No AI bailout. We’re all going to eat dog food this time.
https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/9-trillion-collapse-machine/
Scott there was a dramatic switch in the polling and sentiment after Christmas 2024, something flipped. It could be that people just focussed more on the election and realised Dutton was a dud but the mood definitely changed. That could well happen again this time around, we’ll see
I wonder if Labor gets to 94 seats if the election was in March rather than May as originally predicted though. Cyclone Alfred cleaned out the Liberals, Pauline looks like finishing the job
Interesting to hear a Reuters podcast yesterday on New Zealand house prices, down 16% overall and 27% in Wellington. Wouldn’t be a bad outcome if the same thing happened here imo
Surprise there has been no opinion polling out for the Victorian state election which is under 6 months
The King Donald Brainfart of the Day ™
WSJ
Hard Being Green says:
Monday, June 1, 2026 at 7:08 am
Scott there was a dramatic switch in the polling and sentiment after Christmas 2024, something flipped. It could be that people just focussed more on the election and realised Dutton was a dud but the mood definitely changed. That could well happen again this time around, we’ll see
———————————————————————-
Agree , the federal lib/nats are following the same path as Dutton, so is One nation , trying to divide and propaganda With no new polices or alternatives.
And there are 2 more federal budgets before the 2028 federal election, which again will put pressure on lib/nats and one nation to come up with alternatives
I’m not sure we’ll get 2 more budgets, personally I’d prefer a March 28 election. May elections throw things out in terms of budget timing
Seems pretty obvious that Labor will ramp up WATO if they’re in trouble politically and inflation is under control, although they might do it anyway
Interesting to hear Pauline on AM, replayed from Sky I think, won’t rule out being PM because she thinks she can do it. More interesting though, suggests she has something in mind re tax that she won’t announce yet. Barnaby has floated a flat tax. One Nation has talked turnover taxes in the past
See what they come up with. I was disappointed the tax flow tax wasn’t in the budget, hopefully it’ll be there next time
If 40% think that PH is ready for government it suggests that those of that opinion lack the knowledge of what to be in government is. #dunningkruger
The Government is still ahead of each of its opponents on BludgerTrack, on both primary votes and TPP, although with a slight downward drift. Two years away from the due date for the next election, and right after a reforming Budget aimed at disrupting a property status quo which is being fiercely defended (albeit indirectly, through the CGT and trust changes) by those who’ve benefited from that status quo, I think this is not too bad right now for the Government. Certainly, the Government would be returned on these figures. And the Government has two more years to tweak the Budget, sell fairness better and make decisions to rectify its standing with voters who are sceptical.
SMH Letters today…
I agree about the politics of anger. The rise of One Nation and Reform UK; the unfettered destructive forces of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu in their Middle East wars; and Vladimir Putin’s berserk response to his failed war in Ukraine epitomise anger’s apocalyptic effect on our civilisation. Anger begets anger. As Seneca wrote in De Ira (On Anger) some 2000 years ago: “Mankind is born for mutual assistance, anger for mutual ruin: the former loves society, the latter estrangement. The one loves to do good, the other to do harm; the one to help even strangers, the other to attack even its dearest friends.” Peter Clarke, Turramurra
I bet she’s annoyed she didn’t quit the senate and run herself in Farrer.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has come under fire over her parliamentary attendance after declaring she had the ability to be prime minister and was unafraid to oppose a real increase to the minimum wage, with the Queenslander being absent from 88 per cent of Senate estimate hearing days over the past decade. After she skipped Canberra last week to prioritise meeting voters in regional Queensland, which included spending her birthday with billionaire Clive Palmer, parliamentary library analysis showed Senator Hanson attended at least one Senate estimates hearing on just 28 out of 239 days they were held since she returned to parliament in 2016.
Senator Hanson told The Australian she did not want to regularly attend Senate estimates hearings because bureaucrats do not answer her questions, labelling Coalition and Labor MPs “bastards” for criticising her attendance record. “These bastards, all they are worried about is trying to kick me in the guts to make out that I’m not doing anything,” she said.
Earlier on Sky News, Senator Hanson said she had the capacity to become prime minister and was open to running in a lower house seat at the next election. “Do I want to be prime minister? Well, I tell you what, I won’t knock the job because I believe that I have the ability to do it,” she said, amid a surge in support for her party since last year’s federal election.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/pauline-hanson-skipping-88-per-cent-of-senate-estimates-hearings-despite-claiming-an-ability-to-be-pm/news-story/b812b8be68efd32a15b0a8ab5558cf07?amp
Hard Being Green says:
Monday, June 1, 2026 at 6:23 am
Seems the pollsters are jumping around a bit on where One Nation and the LNP are sitting. Labor pretty consistently sub 30 on average now. Greens look to be stuck around 12
Hopefully Zack’s address to the Victorian Greens campaign conference sparks a change in their approach. I think it’s a good call for them to take on One Nation more directly than they have been. It’s hard to argue they can be ignored because they aren’t a legitimate threat anymore
Although trying to keep the government in check is still the most important thing
________
Goodness! Is that a shift in the espoused #25in25 desire? Does the horseshoe no longer fit? 🙂
The Pauline for PM campaign is ramping up, hopefully it goes as well as the Joh for PM one did previously
Tim Wilson on RN Breakfast trying hard to tell Tony Abbott, indirectly, that he should stay in his lane as party president. Good luck with that lol
Interesting that PK and Fran didn’t talk about polls much when they ran the show. Redbridge is getting a big run this morning, not just on RN Breakfast though, Kos was on AM as well and it’s featuring in the news segments
Tony Abbott on at around 8.45am
We live in interesting times. Have a great day folks
p.s. bring on the Morgan
Edit. I missed the good line from Sally to Tim Wilson re the poll. You’re closer to the Greens than One Nation lol
Edit 2, #PlentyIn28
I have argued fairly consistently prior to this Budget that the reason the Labor Government would not touch the tax treatment of housing was that 66% of Austalians own their houses and perhaps another15-20% had reasonable prospects of inheriting considerable wealth from those houses.
In other words, my opinion was touching housing was electoral suicide.
I also noted that those urging Labor getting a spine etc, etc, etc… were not the ones who were going to suffer the political pain.
I also argued that fixing housing tax was a fundamental issue for getting the Australian economy fixed, structurally.
Further, I argued that it was a wicked problem. There were no good choices. If you promised reform you got Shortened. If you did not promise them and went ahead and did them once in office, you risked losing government at the next election.
Labor may or may not survive this reform. I reckon it is touch and go. Housing prices will fall over the next couple of years for various reasons. Regardless of those reasons home owners will blame Labor.
The ‘go’ bit of the touch and go will arise as the inevitable consequences of the SoH being locked up to date. The likely further consequences will arise as a result of the SoH being locked up for longer. Global inflation and a reduction in global growth are in the can.
Regardless, Albanese will go down as the best ever Australian prime minister. He tackled electrifying the nation. He enacted the single biggest structural tax reform since Howard set about destroying the Australian economy.
Hanson/Taylor will try to reverse all of the above. With respect to electrification… they will, like Chrisafulli, be partially successful. IMO, they will be able to slow it down. They will not be able to turn it around.
Some of the Greens are finally twigging that it is time to stop trying to destroy the Albanese Government and it is over due to start focusing on Hanson.
But only some of them. The Trots playbook is that Labor must be destroyed for the Revolution to happen.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Iran’s president offers resignation, citing total takeover by IRGC commanders: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605312204?source=share-link
Russia Can No Longer Take More Land Than Ukraine Liberates, Zelenskyy Says: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/russia-can-no-longer-take-more-land-than-ukraine-liberates-zelenskyy-says-19353
US to pull jets, destroyers and submarines from NATO as part of European drawdown: https://www.politico.eu/article/us-to-pull-jets-destroyers-and-submarines-from-nato-in-a-broader-european-fallback/
‘Disturbing Graves’: Vietnam Moves the Dead to Make Way for Trump’s $1.5B Golf Course: https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/disturbing-graves-vietnam-moves-the-dead-to-make-way-for-trumps-15b-golf-course-198482/
France requests emergency UN meeting amid Israeli advance in Lebanon: https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20260531-france-requests-emergency-un-meeting-amid-israeli-advance-in-lebanon
Neighbour from hell: Pensioner who threw dead moles into garden and used lawnmower to ruin dinner party faces jail after 15-year feud: https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/wiltshire-neighbour-jail-lawnmower-restraining-5HjdZn9_2/
Trump Admin Renames Iran’s $300 Billion Reparations Demand an ‘Investment Fund’ to Avoid a Political Firestorm at Home: https://www.ibtimes.com/trump-admin-renames-irans-300-billion-reparations-demand-investment-fund-avoid-political-3803535
Trump says ‘cancel’ America 250 concert: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5903008-trump-america-250-concert/
Donald Trump Says James Talarico Is a Vegan With “Six Genders” in Bizarre Rant: https://www.them.us/story/donald-trump-says-james-talarico-is-a-vegan-with-six-genders-in-bizarre-rant
Democrats’ concerns grow over Senate candidate Graham Platner amid sexual texts: https://www.ms.now/news/democrats-senate-maine-graham-platner-collins-sexual-texts
Lead prosecutor on former FBI Director Comey’s ‘seashells’ case withdraws without explanation: https://abcnews.com/Politics/lead-prosecutor-former-fbi-director-comeys-seashells-case/story?id=133437435
BW I started reading your comment but I never got to the actual comment because I zoned out during the preamble.
That’s no coincidence!
Hh, thank you.
[Trump Admin Renames Iran’s $300 Billion Reparations Demand an ‘Investment Fund’ to Avoid a Political Firestorm at Home: https://www.ibtimes.com/trump-admin-renames-irans-300-billion-reparations-demand-investment-fund-avoid-political-3803535%5D
With Trump it was never from the sublime to the ridiculous. Ever. Now the ridiculous is getting ridiculouser and ridiculouser.
OC
The preamble is about me being wrong so I can see why it was a difficult read.
NSW and Qld set new monthly records for (big) battery charge and discharge, in May. These contributed to overall NEM records for charge:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.battery_charging.energy.month.high?datetime=2026-05-01T00_00_00&offset=10_00&focus=1777557600000
And discharge:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.battery_discharging.energy.month.high?datetime=2026-05-01T00_00_00&offset=10_00&focus=1777557600000
-> Both of these are 3x that of May 2025.
There’s been a few articles about batteries of late. The ABC focused mainly on WA; GA’s effort was typically poor. The AFR included some good historical context:
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/how-batteries-transformed-australia-s-power-grid-in-one-year-20260423-p5zqkr or https://archive.is/jRKpk
The full Fox & Hedgehog federal poll is now online.
Primaries: ALP 29 (-1) ON 27 (+4) L/NP 25 +(2) GRN 10 (-3) OTH 9 (-2)
below are all respondent allocated
3PP: ALP 43 ON 30 L/NP 27
TPP: ALP 49 L/NP 51
TPP: ALP 54 ON 46
TPP: L/NP 58 ON 42
Intro
https://www.foxhedgehog.com.au/news-den/the-daily-telegraph-may-2026-national-voter-sentiment-survey
Full report
https://drive.google.com/file/d/13CXxW2Ojuq8E7pJRVEEh9fO80SIiEikp/view
lol BW, plot twist!
Redbridge is deadbridge to me, I’ve placed them on my list of suspected satanists along with DemonsAU. Fox and Henhouse is off the list for now though.
Leroy, Monday, June 1, 2026 at 8:28 am:
Interesting. The 19% of GRN + OTH went:
ALP 14; ON 3; LNP 2.
The Coalition is being squeezed right out of contention from both left and right.
I refer to my last post from the previous thread.
The Murdoch/Sky mob are providing the “opposition” in Federal Parliament and specifically refer to the latest attack on Albanese and his CGT experience.
The Murdoch/Sky mob are not even attempting to provide the concept of “balance” in their Federal government reporting. (did they ever)
The Murdoch/Sky mob are being ably assisted by the likes of the Pocock utterances, the Greens strutting in the Senate and the Teals desperately seeking relevance.
The Murdock/Sky mob essentially find the Liberals to be as useless as a canoe in a desert and have cranked their efforts to be the “opposition” in Federal Parliament.
The Nationals have been dismissed.
The re-emergence of Abbott has only added to the “call” for ON.
It’s occasionally mentioned by some that electoral success for ON is the only way a significant cohort of the Australian will discover the reality of ON the hard way.
The “inequality” memes provided by the media have many believing that “it is they” who are missing out.
Abbott as a News Ltd representative should have been enough?
The upcoming name change from Sky news to News 24 is another is another significant “pincer movement”.
Racism via immigration is positioned to be “a comet’s tail” leading to 2028.
“White Nation” has great appeal to a broad range of Australian voters and the Murdoch media intend to “get their way”.
The escalation of the media’s role two years from an election boldly screams the intention that “the right” has set a campaign perhaps not seen before in Australia.
“The Voice” showed “the right” the success that can be had!
The polling, the polling trends are real and “are a worry”.
This all happening in a time of relative prosperity!
The old LNP are similar to the “Greek cafes” in every town and suburb in 1950/1960s and has been replaced the News Ltd owned “fast food” ON political takeaway.
Earlier on Sky News, Senator Hanson said she had the capacity to become prime minister and was open to running in a lower house seat at the next election.
_________________________
There we are. Self-delusion writ large!
Hanson has the capacity to become prime minister. Whether she has the capacity to be a competent prime minister is a whole other question.
I look forward to her first meeting with the president of Indonesia who is a muslim and therefore bad.
Simples.
I’m sticking with the popularity of One nation being purely a rejection by the public of immigration.
We shouldn’t forget that the voice referendum that failed in 2023
gave us a clear picture of where we are at.
Sigh….
I can say confidently that in Melbourne town, children of migrants are the very ones complaining about the influx of Indians.
Sad but true.
GOP blew $100 million to take down Ken Paxton. Now they endorse him.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/5/31/800047214/series/gop-blew-100-million-to-take-down-ken-paxton-now-they-endorse-him/
Ven
Paxton will still probably win against Talarico in November.
Reason being is that the state of Texas is run by the GOP and they will use every dirty trick in the book to make sure that the Dems vote is suppressed.
Morning all. William thanks for the lead-in article explanation of both polls.
The polls are still shocking to me, but can’t be ignored. Important to note though that, even if as reported, they would result in Labor losing its majority, not Hanson becoming PM. Those saying that they would make Hanson PM are revealing their membership of the right wing cheer squad.
I have been trying to understand Hanson’s appeal and looked at the One Nation website. After ignoring their appeal to become a One Nation candidate, I looked at their policies. It is a slick lie. It appeals to every right wing impulse – anti climate action, small business tax, LGBTIQ rights, abortion, immigration, and environmental protection. In return it promises more jobs, pay, housing, all at zero cost. Taxes magically get lower despite the cost of all this. Its a giant lie.
https://www.onenation.org.au/issues
Labor has got two years to dismantle this right wing political scam.
L-NP are writing their own obituary by out Pauline, Pauline and preferencing ON above ALP.
And I will say that here in Melbourne town, we have been beset with the fallout of middle eastern organised crime relating to the tobacco wars and now with alcohol.
They employ young people and pay them peanuts to firebomb businesses and establishments.
And who are the young people they usually get to do these terrible firebombings? Young boys from Sudanese backgrounds.
You can see why a picture emerges of the public pushing back on immigration, as they conflate issues of crime and unrest with those who disrupt the peace of the society.
Sad but true.
It’s clear that Pauline’s position about the PM job is only that she while she could do it, it’s far from her settled view that she would (if that were ever possible).
It’s designed I think to improve on ON’s trajectory to electoral dominance. Many who now support ON would desert if she eschewed ambition to be PM.
Victoria
There are two extremes here. I am against punitive policing or criminal profiling by ethnicity. But ethnic background should not be used as an excuse for violent crime either.
I have some friends who came here from countries in conflict with appalling background history. Yet they never did anything like this. So if people commit violent crime, they should be arrested.
Also, crimes like this only happen if somebody is paying them. Obviously, arrest the somebody too.
US and UK are getting destroyed because of election of far-right fascists due to self-destruction of right wing parties in order to win and remain in power.
The same is about to happened/ happening/ will happen in Australia if you observe L-NP in the last 25 years. They may even cease to exist after next election. It is so stupid that it is beyond words.
I will urge people on Left not to underestimate ON and assume that Australia is different and Hanson will not come to power.
As per current polling, 1 in 6 ALP voters of 2025, want to vote for ON after just one year of 2025 election, where ALP PV was 34.6% and which is not high.
Greens political party should stop playing stupid games and behave like a responsible political party. Their shenanigans of trying to show that ALP government is some sort of monster, is allowing the real monster to come to power.
Two questions hang in the air above the now-decaying federal budget, like condors waiting for carrion.
First, why is Labor spending the political capital of a 50-seat majority on a minor change to capital gains tax on businesses?
Second, will housing become more affordable, and therefore be a bad investment and no longer a way to build wealth?
For the first time since I started covering housing affordability as a national disaster, I’m optimistic that the tide has turned and that residential real estate will indeed be a poor investment, possibly for decades, which means affordability will gradually improve.
But there is a dark side to this. A generation of young families who bought a house recently using too much debt, but hoping, fully expecting, to build equity and wealth, will be devastated.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-01/capital-gains-tax-negative-gearing-housing-chalmers-albanese/106742204
In New Zealand net immigration has dropped to near zero as house prices have dropped 15% in nominal terms and 30% inflation adjusted in last 5 years. But housing construction is pretty high.
Conservative govt still 50 50 to get re-elected later this year
Victoria says:
Monday, June 1, 2026 at 8:46 am
I’m sticking with the popularity of One nation being purely a rejection by the public of immigration.
——————————————
For some it would be an issue, for others not so much.
That is the problem with the politically left. They have to put groups into neat boxes and say if such and such votes y way it because they all think x way.
I can guarantee you, there are a million reasons to vote ON and for everyone it will be a personal thing.
The worst thing that could possibly happen at the moment would be for the Greens to start campaigning against One Nation. It would effectively convince 88% of the electorate that One Nation was OK.
We need the Greens to campaign FOR One Nation.
Socrates
Those I know in law enforcement, have said repeatedly over the years, that there is an ongoing concerted strategy to maintain cohesion in the society. There are many ways in which they do this.
Crimes are of course dealt with, but the emphasis is just straight reporting on the crime. They don’t want a narrative to take hold that there is a serious problem is certain cohorts.
The concern is that the society can fragment very easily if a narrow focus takes hold.
JJ: “That is the problem with the politically left. They have to put groups into neat boxes”
So…. labeling someone from ‘the politically left’ isn’t a ‘neat box’? Goddam you people are dumb. The term to describe this is called ‘projection’.
Shaking my head in disbelief emoji.