Newspoll didn’t report this week on its normal three-weekly schedule, presumably to allow clear air for the Farrer by-election. But we do have the weekly result from the ever-reliable Roy Morgan, which had Labor up a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one to 25%, One Nation up half to 22% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on preference flows from the 2025 election. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1605.
Probably a good budget but could have done with some creative policy – Luigi Smith style 🙂
I’m reliably informed that Sarah Ferguson was seen walking around the corridors of the ABC with tears streaming down her face on the night of the last federal election.
The “broken promise” attack line on this will be another “Albo is doomed because of The Voice” mirage.
No-one will care in 2 years that he “broke a promise”. They will care how the Government has performed.
Now it’s little Timmy.
I believe people will care about broken promises during the next election campaign.
Timmy Wilson in for his tummy tickle interview
Freedom Boy more to the liking of Fergie
“I’m reliably informed that Sarah Ferguson was seen walking around the corridors of the ABC with tears streaming down her face on the night of the last federal election.”
Tim Wilson can’t even hit Sarah’s softball questions.
Also, why does Tim Wilson look like a racoon.
Ghost Of Whitlam
Sometimes they do, people remembered the LAW tax cuts two years later.
Fergie’s interruptions have been switched off.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 8:28 pm
I believe people will care about broken promises during the next election campaign.
_________________
Umm yeah nah, lets see the opposition go to an election promising to reinstate the neg gearing changes, cut taxes on family trusts and capital gains and reverse all the income tax cuts.
Inevitably Waters can’t be constructive and say something like “this is a good start and more is needed”, it’s toys out of the pram at sixteen paces like with Angus.
And this is why the Greens are at best treading water.
Little Timmy is on now making stuff up and Sarah just let’s him. Then again she just got toweled by Charmers.
C’mon, after Timmy talking to his phone, “when it comes to honesty, did you have to look at your notes?” was pretty funny.
So all the LNP have got is migration dogwhistles.
Timmy has a bit of the Malcolm Turnbulls about him
Let me guess, they’re also bringing back “spend your super on a deposit”.
I missed the Treasurer’s speech because, life. But it seems I didn’t miss much because it was mostly drip fed to the media over the course of the last week, as usual.
sprocket_says:
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 8:33 pm
Timmy has a bit of the Malcolm Turnbulls about him
– – – – – – – — – – –
No one, not even Leigh Sales, is going to swoon over Freedom Boy.
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 8:27 pm
The “broken promise” attack line on this will be another “Albo is doomed because of The Voice” mirage.
No-one will care in 2 years that he “broke a promise”. They will care how the Government has performed.
——————————————-
None of federal lib/nats and propaganda media units , propaganda has worked after the 2025 federal election , no matter how many times the propaganda has been repeated, no impact
People pouring into the streets, chanting:
What do we want?
Negative Gearing
When do we want it?
Now.
All over for Labor
The danger for the government is if rents jump and property prices don’t fall.
Why do so many of the ABC people have glasses.
UK in crisis:
The cost of government borrowing leapt to the highest level since 1998 as pressure grows on the Prime Minister to quit. The yield on 30-year gilts, which is sensitive to long-term inflation fears, jumped as much as 0.13 percentage points to just over 5.8pc on Tuesday morning. It marks a 28-year high and comes after 83 Labour MPs publicly demanded Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation.
Broken promises matter if people wanted the promise kept and don’t if they agree with the change in policy.
Last term Labor arguably broke a promise by changing the stage 3 tax cuts. Who got damaged by that? The Liberal Party. Who heard anyone giving Labor grief about that in the election campaign? Nobody.
So the question is, will Australian voters get behind this or not? If not then the broken promise matters, but if they do then it doesn’t.
L A W LAW tax cuts mattered because people wanted the tax cut as they usually do.
Read my lips, no new taxes same thing. People cared because they wanted the promise kept.
So we will see, won’t we.
What the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units , can not get into their political heads is
Voters want to see if the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units has alternative policies to labor , but they do not, they just re-used the same failed policies which the voters they need voted against , reason why they are not convincing non lib/nats voters to switch to them.
Howard: “There wont be a GST ever.” Took it to an election and won.
Honest Albo will sail through untouched – book it!
Oh, has an election been called?
The Debt situation in UK is going to get out of control a lot quicker than most people think. Although the markets have calmed down a little tiny bit (5.76% atm).
Also Japan’s 30 year bond rate is about to hit a high not seen since the 1990s. The era of cheap money is over.
Turned on the ABC to get the big whinge from SF.
Come to poll bludger to get an actually summary .
Thankyou
It is about time tax moved from salaries to capital, good stuff.
The real challenge is to work out, did labor do it because farrer showed the Liberals are stuffed, and no longer worth the worry, or did they do it because they realized doing nothing would leave room for one nation to continue their rubbish.
@Landlord of the Year
Sure.
Although greedy existing landlords who are unaffected by this and still go out tomorrow to try and jack up rent and blame the government and negative gearing – it will happen – will provide a terrific blame magnet for any such rent rises and an excuse for the government to crack down on such things.
(I remember commercial clients dealing with bad faith suppliers and contractors trying to blame the carbon tax for some outrageous try-on increases to the price of materials back in that era, including before carbon pricing had even taken effect).
WB
Of course it has. Pauline the battler is going to win don’t you know?
Landlords already invent reasons to illegaly boot out tenants so they can whack the rent up by hundreds of dollars, and already raise rents to the maximum they think they can get someone to pay.
Budgets don’t matter to that.
Sarah F salvaged herself a bit with Timmy, but let him get away with not answering some good questions toward the end of her interview. I especially liked the one about what his constituents would think about his performance tonight.
On balance, she’s certainly harder on him than Leigh Sales ever was. Always tummy rubs for Timmy from Leigh. But Sarah seems to be obsessed with the “broken promise” issue. Methinks she is substantively engrossed in real estate investment herself. Good on her. But it’s worth the effort to diversify and work out how best to manage all her investments and I suspect she can afford to get good advice.
And thanks for the policy accolade, SL. I’ll wait for Awkward Angus on Thursday to give my suggestions the recognition they deserve. It’ll be a big night for Angus. He can give us a glimpse of policies that might help the Libs win back the urban and suburban seats they’ve lost, or he can deliver an energy policy designed to sandbag National seats against the ON onslaught (henceforth, the ONslaught).
I’m tipping that Canavan has written his speech.
Arky @ #383 Tuesday, May 12th, 2026 – 8:46 pm
But property prices are already falling. Or at least they are in Sydney.
holy shit can the people at the ABC finally figure out what microphone they’ve got left on in the background and turn it off.
Tax cuts that don’t take effect until July 2027 are election fodder.
Every budget is important, but the last budget and budget reply before the election is the one which voters take notice of
Can someone remind Allegra Spender she represents a set of constituents, not “corporate start-ups”.
Labor now needs an anti-disinformation campaign. Hopefully it’s anticipated the lies and is ready to debunk them. And to call out the liars.
Here comes Larissa to take the credit for Labor doing actual work and then prepare her blocking NIMBY lines.
Arky
These changes could help first home buyers, some people have bought the idea removing NG and changing CGT will herald a collapse in house prices.
I really doubt the changes to CGT concessions and negative gearing will significantly impact a federal election in a couple of years time, which was clearly the calculation of the ALP, too. The grandfathering arrangements might provide some annoyance. The migration figures will cause some problems. The assumptions on Medicare fraud savings appear extremely optimistic. The direct funding of bulk billing clinics is long overdue, as the distribution of Urgent Care Clinics could have been a effective line of attack previously (just as the distribution of NDIS services and spending could have been used, too), just nobody politically ever picked the issue up.
William Bowe says:
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 8:27 pm
I’m reliably informed that Sarah Ferguson was seen walking around the corridors of the ABC with tears streaming down her face on the night of the last federal election.
There need to be a sarcasm tag.
Sorry, Barnaby, you can’t create new forms of energy.
Hey look – Melissa Clark!
nath at 7.36 pm
“But what a cowardly move re the gambling report. really really low.”
Yes, indeed. Did you see the distraught Collingwood supporter who had put himself (and no doubt others) through the gambling addiction whirlpool and is so traumatised that he can’t watch Pies matches live, lest his nether self gets the better of him and drags down his finances again? (ABC News)
“Tim Wilson: Well, welcome to Budget Day. Budget Day 2026 has started with the Treasurer confirming the betrayal of the Australian people. ”
https://www.timwilsonmp.com.au/doorstop_interview_parliament_house_canberra_budget_day_2026
Speak for yourself Tim he didn’t betray me. Do you actually believe we are all a nation of spiv landlords all negatively gearing or is that just only the demographic you and your party represent and you are blind to all others?