Newspoll didn’t report this week on its normal three-weekly schedule, presumably to allow clear air for the Farrer by-election. But we do have the weekly result from the ever-reliable Roy Morgan, which had Labor up a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one to 25%, One Nation up half to 22% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on preference flows from the 2025 election. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1605.
Not a bad suit and tie combo Jim – well cut, nice relaxed fit, no creases best on the screen so far today. Not in the PJK league of course but worth a mention.
From July next year, negative gearing for residential properties will be limited to new builds, but anyone who has bought an investment property before 7.30pm AEST tonight (12 May) will be exempt from the changes. On 1 July next year, the capital gains tax discount will also be replaced with cost base indexation and a minimum 30% tax rate.
If you’re buying a new property you’ll still get some negative gearing tax incentives, and you’ll be able to choose between cost base indexation or the 50% CGT discount.
The budget deficit for 2026–27 is $31.5 billion, an improvement of $2.8 billion compared to
MYEFO. The budget is projected to return to balance in 2034–35 and a surplus of
0.8 per cent of GDP in 2036–37, supported by structural savings and reforms to the
tax system.
As at 30 June 2027, gross debt is $1,051.0 billion, $18.0 billion lower than at MYEFO and
$173.0 billion lower than the estimate the Government inherited. As a share of GDP, gross
debt is expected to peak 1.2 percentage points lower and two years earlier than at MYEFO
Labor only winning 94 seats instead of 150 and a Senate majority is such a shame. The reactionary parties are utterly incompetent in comparison.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/may/12/budget-2026-live-updates-federal-treasurer-jim-chalmers-speech-time-tonight-latest-news-ntwnfb?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-6a02f5478f0894ddcedce371#block-6a02f5478f0894ddcedce371
4m ago19.40 AEST
What are the changes to negative gearing, CGT and trusts?
From July next year, negative gearing for residential properties will be limited to new builds, but anyone who has bought an investment property before 7.30pm AEST tonight (12 May) will be exempt from the changes.
On 1 July next year, the capital gains tax discount will also be replaced with cost base indexation and a minimum 30% tax rate.
If you’re buying a new property you’ll still get some negative gearing tax incentives, and you’ll be able to choose between cost base indexation or the 50% CGT discount.
The government says the tax changes will help about 75,000 Australians (and particularly young Australians) own a home.
Jim Chalmers did a stop in the Guardian bureau during the lockup and said:
A lesser government would have used the developments overseas as an excuse to do less, and what we’ve tried to do is accelerate the reform and not just absorb the shock.
There are also big changes coming for discretionary trusts from July 2028, which will also incur a minimum 30% tax rate. While that won’t necessarily have an impact on house prices or help young people get into the market, it will help to stop wealthy families over-leveraging the tax system.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-12/why-chalmers-reined-in-the-property-tax-lurks/106671254
Why Chalmers reined in the property tax lurks in federal budget
By Ian Verrender
12m ago
It’s unusual for a federal budget to look too far beyond the next election.
Traditionally, the annual gabfest is an opportunity for treasurers to update their promises of distant surpluses — even if they rarely eventuate — before dangling the prospect of a tax cut if you vote for them at the next national poll.
This year is different.
……………….
One of the more striking elements from the now well-entrenched program of pre-budget leaks is the lack of outrage from the population or even the opposition.
Broken promises aside, the blowback from critics has been decidedly muted, mostly restricted to complex arguments about the potential for a shortage of rental properties.
“Anyone who has bought an investment property before 7.30pm AEST tonight (12 May) will be exempt from the changes.”
Well fuck I was about to spend 2 billion dollars on houses tomorrow morning.
Ciggies up! Grog up.
(Channeling the Nerscorp journos of yesteryear!)
They better not touch the wine tax, it’s why cider is cheap.
We also have some updated immigration numbers. The government has previously announced that the permanent migration intake would remain steady at 185,000 a year, while net overseas migration (the number of people arriving in Australia minus those leaving) is forecast to drop. The last financial year of 2024-25 saw the Net Overseas Migration at 305,000; this financial year it’s expected to drop to 295,000, and the 2026-27 financial year it’s forecast to drop even further to 245,000.
(The Coalition is planning to cut Australia’s annual net overseas immigration levels to 150,000-200,000 and ON to 130,000 per year)
Sounded like Angus Taylor was trying to object for something.
Debt to be back down below the LNP’s Trillion Dollar Debt.
The Government will introduce a minimum tax of 30 per cent on discretionary trusts from 1 July 2028 with some exceptions. Rollover relief will be provided for three years from 1 July 2027 to assist small businesses and others that wish to restructure.
What is being addressed in this Budget sets future parameters
But, simply, the addressing will not and can not correct the impacts wreaked on the population over the last 2 decades since Howard and Costello
We can not go backwards
The damage is writ large before us – noting the outcome of the 2019 election so the electorate must also accept fault
And I speak as a fully self funded retiree, unknown to government including not being liable to pay tax
But, since 2019, I have been the recipient of Franking Credits (why not?)
I reconcile that whist in the workplace I paid significant amounts of tax, to an upper marginal rate of 60 cents in the $1-, so I am owed something
One of the greatest budget speeches in the history of this country. An incredible Labor budget in a horrendously difficulty period of time.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/young-australians-faced-a-dark-future-now-the-treasurer-has-cued-the-sun-20260508-p5zv1v.html or https://archive.is/2xOHY (J. Maley)
Havent seen a politician leave the chamber as quick as Angus Taylor did
I hear the world’s smallest violins playing for the landlords.
“The budget is stronger. The deficit are smaller. The debt is lower.”
Brilliant management of the economy from Labor.
Under the LNP the budget would be worse, the deficits larger, the debts higher.
Looking forward to the WATO, if we get it that is.
Only afr has picked up 30% minimum tax rate on capital gains.
was busy elsewhere….one or two word response to the budget from the bludgers
This budget will cost me considerably.
I support it whole heartedly.
Good Speech. So far, sounds like an overall reasonable Budget to me.
Emphasis on working taxpayers welcome. Me, i would still like to see
welfare payments increased and a gas tax. They have at least a couple more
chances to have a go at those.
There’s a reason I’ve kept sanguine about polling all year and kept pointing out over and over that Labor is keeping their powder dry for the budget and just tanking the criticism until the budget.
Reckon this will do very well.
The “lack of courage” merchants can all fuck off now.
Guardian: The government is also adding a minimum 30% tax on capital gains starting from 1 July 2027, which is designed to discourage people from waiting to sell a property until their other income, like a salary, decreases, which they might do to lower their tax bill.
To continue to incentivise construction of new housing, investors building new residential properties will be able to choose either the 50% CGT discount or the new cost-base indexation and the minimum tax. The changes to negative gearing and CGT are expected to raise about $3.6bn over the four-year forward estimates period.
“Only afr has picked up 30% minimum tax rate on capital gains.”
I like it.
Has anyone worked out if this budget will cost Gina daH Hut enough to make it squeal??
I think that’s a good proxy for “did the govt go far enough?? “
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 4:36 pm
…
An El Nino would not help.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Speaking of which, BOM are forecasting El Nino conditions to develop in August(-ish) and persisting at least to the end of the year.
NOAA (in the US) are forecasting the same (>90% likely by September), with a ~50% probability of it being considered Strong (28%) to Very Strong (24%). Good slideshow summary of all the data and modelling here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf.
And here goes the LNP loving stooge Sarah Ferguson to present gotcha lies in an attempt to tear down the Government.
“Has anyone worked out if this budget will cost Gina daH Hut enough to make it squeal??”
Gina won’t stop squealing until she’s dead because there’s no amount of money that will ever satisfy her greed. If it wasn’t tax, it’ll be wages being too high, or safety measures being too costly, or not being able to destroy indigenous land rights, or not being given free money to provide her with infrastructure.
Seems mostly good. Lots of changes are a few years off. It’s not a lazy budget. Haven’t heard but I think they are still strangling research and v underinvesting in AI which is the only negative for me.
“But but but the election but but but promise but but but.”
Sarah is getting towelled up, she’s so rattled she can’t interrupt and land some LNP talking points.
“Trust in politics”.
The last refuge of the interviewer who can’t find a reason to attack the policy.
Did Sarah ever give a shit about “trust in politics” over Howards non-core promises? Or Abbot’s no cuts to abc, no cuts to medicare? Or Scomo’s robodebt?
Yep. There is quite a range of possible el nino outcomes. The biggest and baddest is if a massive slug of heat makes its way east across the Pacific by way of Kelvin Waves.
This budget may be the only budget reply Angus Taylor makes as leader of the federal liberal party
Chalmers easily batting away Sarah Ferguson’s repeated attempts at gotchas over the broken promise. The way she’s going, this will take up all of the time for the interview. How very wasteful!
Ferguson reminds me of P1.
whinge. whine. moan. snark.
Ghost Of Whitlam says:
Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 8:09 pm
And here goes the LNP loving stooge Sarah Ferguson to present gotcha lies in an attempt to tear down the Government.
___________________
She is doing an audition for the next Sky News opening by the sounds of it
What happened to the Super changes?
Rex! You can celebrate, the hoard remains secure!
Ferguson just reminding me of why I have dropped the 7.30 Report.
This is going so badly for Sarah she should be letting Jim ask her questions instead.
Fergusson has done a Speers. And failed totally to better inform us about th budget as a whole.
Sarah pulling out the One Nation propaganda figures on migration.
Is she now arguing for a housing market crash?
Pick a lane Sarah.
Honestly, this has been a really foul performance from the unlikeable Ferguson.
Bizzcan says:
“Only afr has picked up 30% minimum tax rate on capital gains.”
———
This is fundamentally different to the educated guesses before the budget. There seemed to be a consensus that the 50% CGT discount would just be reduced. A flat 30% tax (on the indexed CG increase) will raise a lot of money in the fullness of time.
We have moved from a big tax avoidance lurk to a big tax regime.
Jim in good form, as always. Sarah being Sarah.
Sarah inventing hypotheticals for a slippery slope argument. Pathetic.
And now she’s attacking Chalmers by pretending he didn’t say exactly what he said at the start of the interview.
The usual suspects will go hard at Albanese and Chalmers over the so-called broken promises on tax.
I have come to the view that election commitments are a bit like marriage vows.
Worthy sentiments that don’t usually stand the test of time, regardless of who is uttering them.
@nath
The ones that passed in March?
The super taxes already legislated – Rex has his hoard trimmed.
On negative gearing and CGT, if you really want the detail…
https://budget.gov.au/content/factsheets/download/tax-explainers-negative-gearing-capital-gains-tax.pdf
In short, quite fair. Negative gearing on property effectively abolished from 1 July 2027 – prior to that, largely grandfathered. CGT back to the Keating formula.
Ferguson has had a real towelling! Pathetic.
Sarah choking back tears having to congratulate him for delivering the budget.
Jim for PM