Live Commentary
10:48am Sunday With all 136 councils declared, the results are Reform 1,453 councillors (up 1,451), Labour 1,068 (down 1,496), Lib Dems 844 (up 155), Tories 801 (down 563) and Greens 587 (up 441). So Labour lost 58% of seats it was defending, a bit better than expected. Councils controlled are Labour 28 (down 38), Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), Tories nine (down six), Greens five (up five) and Aspire one (up one – Tower Hamlets), with 64 with no overall control (up 23).
12:09pm These elections were about as bad as expected for Labour in England and Scotland, and worse than expected in Wales. The party that had dominated Wales since the first devolved election in 1999 won just nine out of 96 seats. The pre-election polls were good in Scotland, but overstated Labour and understated PC in Wales.
11:36am After results from 130 of 136 English councils, Reform won 1,443 councillors (up 1,441), Labour 959 (down 1,395), the Lib Dems 834 (up 151), the Tories 773 (down 555) and the Greens 511 (up 370). Councils controlled are Labour 27 (down 35), the Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), the Tories nine (down six) and the Greens four (up four), with 61 with no overall control (up 22). I expect the remaining councils by Sunday morning AEST. While the Greens were runner-up to Reform with 18% according to the BBC’s PNS, their vote appears to have been too evenly dispersed to beat Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems in number of councillors.
11:25am In English mayoral elections, the Greens have also gained Lewisham from Labour to add to their gain in Hackney. These are the first two directly elected Greens mayors. The other four mayoral elections have all been holds for the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and Aspire in Tower Hamlets.
10:59am With counting complete in Scotland, the SNP won 58 of the 129 seats (down six since 2021), Labour 17 (down four), Reform 17 (up 17), the Greens 15 (up six), the Tories 12 (down 19) and the Lib Dems ten (up six). Vote shares in the FPTP seats were 38.2% SNP (down 9.5%), 19.2% Labour (down 2.4%), 15.8% Reform (new), 11.8% Tories (down 10.1%), 11.4% Lib Dems (up 4.4%) and 2.3% Greens (up 1.0%). In the list seats, the SNP won 27.2% and the Greens 14.0%.
7am The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) for these council elections gives Reform 26% of the vote (down four since the 2025 council elections), the Greens 18% (up seven), the Tories 17% (up two), Labour 17% (down three) and the Lib Dems 16% (down one). In 2022, the last time most of these seats were elected, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Tories with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS is a figure for what would have happened had council elections been held nationally, and can be compared from one year of elections to the next.
6:44am In Scotland, 115 of the 129 seats have been declared, including all 73 FPTP seats. In the FPTP seats, the SNP won 57 seats (down six on 2021), the Lib Dems seven (up three), the Tories four (down one), Labour three (up two) and the Greens two (up two). Reform didn’t win any FPTP seats. The SNP and Greens are already at a combined 69 seats (57 SNP and 12 Greens), above the 65 needed for a majority.
6:31am Saturday Counting in Wales is complete, with the BBC showing seat changes from 2021 using a redistribution (as there were 60 total seats in 2021 vs 96 now). The nationalist Plaid Cymru won 43 seats (up 20), Reform 34 (up 34), Labour nine (down 35), the Tories seven (down 22), the Greens two (up two) and the Lib Dems one (up one). PC is six seats short of a majority, with Labour their most plausible partner. Vote shares were 35.4% PC (up 14.7%), 29.3% Reform (up 28.2%), 11.1% Labour (down 25.1%), 10.7% Tories (down 14.3%), 6.7% Greens (up 2.4%) and 4.5% Lib Dems (up 0.1%).
11:15pm And that’s all from me until tomorrow morning.
11:14pm In Scotland, after seven of the 73 FPTP seats have declared, the SNP has won six and the Lib Dems one, a gain for the SNP at the Lib Dems’ expense. There are still no Welsh results, but the Labour Welsh First Minister is expected to lose her seat and Labour is expected to only win ten seats out of 96 (they won 30 out of 60 in 2021).
11:06pm In English councils after 63 of 136 results, Reform has won 561 councillors (up 559), the Lib Dems 336 (up 28), the Tories 305 (down 249), Labour 292 (down 380) and the Greens 106 (up 58). Councils controlled are Labour 13 (down 11), the Lib Dems eight (up one), the Tories six (down two) and Reform three (up three), with 33 NOC (up nine). Labour’s proportional seat losses have increased on counting tonight.
9:58pm The SNP have held Dundee City West by 49-25 over Labour with 13% for Reform. That’s a 12.5% drop in the SNP vote.
9:49pm The first Scottish result is in, with the Lib Dems retaining Orkney Islands by 70-16 over the SNP, an 8% swing to the Lib Dems and 13% against the SNP since 2021.
9:07pm There are no counts available yet, but the Greens have gained Hackney mayoralty from Labour. That’s a former Labour stronghold in London. Update: the Greens defeated Labour by 47.2-35.5 with 8.4% for the Tories and 5.3% for Reform.
8:34pm Counting in Wales and Scotland started at 6pm AEST, with first Scottish results expected at about 9pm.
8:25pm After 46 of 136 English councils, Reform have won 401 councillors (up 399), the Tories 256 (down 174), Labour 253 (down 260), the Lib Dems 251 (up 37) and the Greens 53 (up 28). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down eight), the Tories six (down one), the Lib Dems five (up one) and Reform two (up two), with 23 for NOC (up six).
4:50pm There’s going to be a lull in counting until tonight, when we’ll get Welsh and Scottish results and 96 further council results.
4:06pm The Tories have regained Westminster in London from Labour after losing it in 2022. In inner London councils, it’s just Tories vs Labour. The Tories won 32 of the 54 seats, a nine-seat gain.
3:51pm Reform takes its first council, gaining Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Tories. All 44 seats were up, with Reform winning 27 (up 27), the Tories 15 (down ten) and Labour two (down 17).
3:44pm (three paragraph entry) After 38 of 136 councils, Reform has 317 councillors (up 317), Labour 219 (down 240), the Lib Dems 236 (up 35), the Tories 190 (down 117) and the Greens 48 (up 26). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down seven), Lib Dems five (up one) and Tories three (steady), with No Overall Control (NOC) 20 (up six).
While Labour has lost over half the seats they held, they’re doing better so far than some projections that had them losing 70% of their current seats. Curtice said the Greens are getting about 18%, but this isn’t quite enough in FPTP to win large numbers of seats.
In 2022, Labour gained Wandsworth from the Tories, ending 44 years of Tory dominance in this London council. This election (an all-out election), the Tories regained seven seats, but didn’t quite win a majority, finishing with 29 of 58 seats, to 28 Labour and one independent.
2:21pm Curtice says Reform is averaging 40% where at least 60% voted for Brexit, but only 9% where fewer than 40% voted to Leave. In contrast, the Greens are at 26% in pro-Remain areas but 12% in pro-Leave areas.
1:35pm BBC election analyst John Curtice says in key wards, Reform have 30% of the vote, Labour 16%, the Greens 15% (up ten since 2022). The Tories are down 14% since 2022 and the Lib Dems down 5%.
1:31pm Wigan is a good example of the one-third up for election rule helping the former major parties retain control. Of the 25 seats up for election, Reform won 24 with Labour losing all 22 seats they were defending. But Labour retains control with 42 of the total 75 seats.
1:19pm After 26 of 136 councils, Reform has won 224 councillors (up 224), Labour 84 (down 162), the Lib Dems 68 (down three), the Tories 67 (down 65) and the Greens 34 (up 22). Councils controlled are Labour seven (down five), Lib Dems three (up one), Tories two (steady) and no overall control 14 (up four).
11:59am The Lib Dems have gained control of Stockport in Greater Manchester (previously no overall control). The damage to Labour and the Tories in councils controlled has been limited so far by only having one-third of councillors up at this election. London councils to come in later will have all-out elections.
11:19am After 11 of 136 councils declared, Reform has 93 councillors (up 93), the Tories 13 (down 20), Labour 12 (down 67), the Lib Dems 12 (down three) and the Greens six (up four). Councils controlled are Labour four (down three), the Tories one (steady) and no overall control six (up three). In councils in so far, only one-third of seats have been up for election, so Labour’s controls are from the two-thirds that are not up.
10:46am Reform has won 46 councillors (up 46), Labour six (down 37), the Lib Dems five (down two), the Greens four (up three) and the Tories two (down five).
10:04am Councillors won so far are Reform 12 (up 12 since 2022), Labour two (down 12), Lib Dems two (up one), Greens one (up one) and Tories zero (down two).
9:52am The two councils that have been called Labour holds are because only one-third of seats were up for election, and Labour held nearly all the seats not up for election.
9:45am Slow going so far, with only four ward results in. The BBC says we should get results from ten councils soon.
9:10am Friday The BBC’s live blog says counting in Wales and Scotland won’t begin until Friday UK time (tonight AEST).
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 7am Friday AEST for Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections. Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. At this election, there will be 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates by proportional representation. This reform scraps the first-past-the-post seats.
The Election Maps UK aggregate gives the left-wing Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru 29.8%, followed by the populist right Reform at 27.5%, Labour 14.1%, the Conservatives 10.2%, the Greens 9.4% and the Liberal Democrats 5.7%. Seat projections give Plaid 37 seats, Reform 34, Labour 13, the Conservatives six, the Greens five and the Lib Dems one. If this occurs, Plaid and Labour combined would be able to govern.
Of the 129 Scottish seats, 73 are elected by FPTP and 56 are list seats, with the list seats used to maintain overall proportionality, so that parties that dominate FPTP seats win few list seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011.
In the Election Maps UK aggregate, the SNP has 36.1% of the vote in the FPTP seats, followed by 18.2% for Labour, 17.7% Reform, 11.4% Conservatives, 11.0% Lib Dems and 3.2% Greens. In list seats, the Greens have 13.7% and the SNP 28.0%. Seat projections give the SNP 56, Reform 19, Labour 17, the Greens 14, the Conservatives 12 and the Lib Dems 11. If this occurs, the SNP will hold government with the Greens’ support.
A total of 5,066 coucillors will be up for election in England today. The large majority of councillors were last elected at the 2022 local elections. At those elections, Labour won the Projected National Share (PNS) by 35-30 over the Conservatives with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS calculates a national vote share for council elections. At the 2025 local elections, the PNS was 30% Reform, 20% Labour, 17% Lib Dems, 15% Conservatives and 11% Greens.
Current national vote shares are 26.8% Reform, 18.7% Labour, 18.4% Conservatives, 15.5% Greens and 11.7% Lib Dems. If these vote shares occur at the local elections, Reform and the Greens will gain massively at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives.
Some results from the local elections will be available Friday morning AEST. The large majority of results from England, Wales and Scotland should be in by Saturday morning. Since my April 27 preview of these elections, polls have moved slightly towards Reform.
US updates
In gerrymandering news, Florida’s legislature has passed new maps that may help Republicans gain four seats for a 24-4 Republican split of Florida’s 28 federal House seats. However, this gerrymander may put Republican seats in danger. It’s also subject to legal challenges.
On April 30, the US Supreme Court issued a ruling that will let southern states scrap their Black majority districts. These districts are Democratic bastions in otherwise solidly Republican states. Democrats are likely to respond by diluting Black votes in states which they control – Nate Silver has analysis of how this would work.
With this decision coming six months before the November midterm elections, it will be much more important in 2028 gerrymandering than 2026, although Louisiana postponed its May 16 primary so it can redraw boundaries to scrap at least one Democratic seat.
California will hold a jungle primary on June 2. At a jungle primary all candidates compete together, and the top two, regardless of party, advance to the November general election. Since Democrat Swalwell dropped out, Democrat Becerra has surged from 3.9% to 14.6% in the Fiftyplusone aggregate. There’s still a faint possibility that Republicans Hilton and Bianco both make the runoff, but Becerra and Democrat Steyer are just ahead of Bianco.
Bulgarian election
The 240 Bulgarian MPs are elected using 31 multi-member electorates by proportional representation with a national 4% threshold. There had been seven elections since April 2021. At the April 19 election, the new left-wing populist but somewhat pro-Russia Progressive Bulgaria (PB) won 44.6% of the vote and 131 seats, above the 121 needed for a majority. Nearly 20% was cast for parties that failed to meet the threshold, helping PB to its majority.
Yeah I’m not a fan of first past the post
It’d be fascinating to know where that would have landed 2PP but we never will
John Swinney – SNP First Minister – wins his seat but with a 4% drop in his share of the vote
Yikes, but as expected for Essex.
10 seats for Welsh Labour is grim. They have 16 6-seat regions, basically our senate with a different counting system, so that’s one seat at most per region. Imagine Aus Labor not managing a single senate seat in multiple states.
Welp, heading to bed now, guess I’ll have to wait until morning to see the full extent of the catastrophe for UK Labour.
If any Labour members were losing their rust and thinking of jumping ship, now will be a good time.
First result from Wales for Casnwydd Islwyn
Reform – 2 – 31.6% of vote
Plaid – 2 – 29.7%
Labour – 1 – 13.7%
Tories – 1 – 11.4%
And in Scotland SNP lose Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) to Labour by 154 votes. SNP vote down 14% Labour Up 10%
Apparently it is democratic to sweep an entire council with only half the vote. The Lib Dems swept all seats in Richmond. All 52 seats in the council are now Lib Dem members so no opposition.
FPTP or STV needs to go as it’s essentially easy to win every single seat when your opponents split the vote and do poorly.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad the Lib Dems did well, I like them. But if we put this on the flip side and imagine if it was reform sweeping a council with 50% of the vote. Fairness goes both ways.
Clearly time for that right wing piece of shit Starmer and all his factional mates to fuck right off!
Daniel: If you think that’s bad, try FPTP with multi-member regions, like this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Enfield_London_Borough_Council_election
Labor beating Conservative 45.5-36.8 on votes and 38-25 on seats looks OK, until you dig into how it works. Every single ward had all 2 or 3 seats go to the party that came first, to hell with proportionality. Just… why?
The Australian senate used to work like this before 1949. We wised up a long time ago.
But look at Brighton & Hove where I live
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brighton_and_Hove_City_Council_election
A number of seats with various combinations of winners.
But you need to remeber that our elections are run based on individual wards and not the council as a whole so always unlikely to be proportionate.
And just look at the Australian Parliament, Labour took 62% of the seats with 35% of the vote.
“Scotland SNP lose Na h-Eileanan an Iar”
Toora loora toora loo rye aye!
Chris: I get that it’s based on wards, but if you’re going to have multi-seat wards you might as well try to make it roughly proportional at ward level. Imagine only two parties (red and blue team) running neck and neck in a 2 seat ward – it would probably go either 2-0 or 0-2, with very little possiblity for 1-1, even though that would be the more sensible result.
ChrisC, How certain are you under current circumstances the Green party would sweep your council back into power next year with a majority on the council?
It’s actually weird that Labor holds a plurality despite Brighton Pavilion being safe green. I know Hove is also part of it, but even Hove would be a Labour/Green tossup at westminister level according to the electoral calculus prediction website.
Also if I can point to just 1 area in the country Reform did not do well in despite being a safe tory area, would be Broxbourne. i’m confused. Why does Broxbourne always go Tory even against Reform? Are they Daily Telegraph readers? I know it’s very affluent and comes from old money but you would think reform would have washed the council away last night, it didn’t happen.
Oof. Labour leader Eluned Morgan got bounced in Ceredigion Penfro and it wasn’t even close. Plaid 3, Reform 2, Conservative 1 there; Labour got 7.3%, barely ahead of the Greens.
BBC reporting final result (with change from 2021):
Plaid Cymru – 43 (+20)
Reform – 34 (+34)
Labour – 9 (-35)
Tories – 7 (-22)
Greens – 2 (+2)
Libdem – 1 (+1)
PC 6 short of majority.
I need more sleep but oh what a night and the numbers still climbing for the Greens, so many firsts
BBC has a predicted vote share that has, from memory
Reform 26
Greens 19
Labor 18
Conservatives 18
Lib Dems 17
Amazing numbers
I was almost right, numbers were 26, 18, 17, 17, 16
Not bad off just a few hours sleep
I suspect Sir Keir might now regret his decision to pursue politics over a judicial career, for which he was well on track as DPP.
It’s easy to forget that UK Labour still has more than 3 years remaining of its term in office and a comfortable Parliamentary majority.
With the fragmentation of support across Reform, Labour, Tories, and Lib Dems, associated with the ongoing strength of SNP and PC in Scotland and Wales, it’s anyone’s guess at this stage as to how the next Parliament elected in 2029 will look. Relatively small shifts in support will have a significant impact on Parliamentary numbers given the FPTP voting system in place. Has Reform peaked with support now at 26%?
So for UK Labour the question is what it does for the next 3 years. It’s easy to be mesmerised by Farage, but he’s a more sophisticated version of our Pauline – a lot of noise, a bit of wrecking, but what would a Reform government actually look like? Labour remains firmly in control of its destiny.
For Labour to start turning around it’s fortunes, Starner has to go. Then there’s 3 years to rebuild under a new PM.
Logically Starmer should resign immediately, but is there an alternative that would do any better right now? Andy Burnham can’t get back into parliament, because Starmer stacked the NEC against him. Angela Rayner’s area just voted Reform, Wes Streeting holds his seat in London by only a few hundred votes.
UK Labour are screwed pretty much, maybe they’ll cease to exist in a few years, and the left vote will be fought over by the Greens and the Liberal Democrats.
As for Reform – Farage is just another Trump, he’s a con man, I doubt he cares at all about working class British people who have voted for his party in droves. You’d assume the average Reform voter blames immigrants and dark skinned people for their own economic woes, and they think a mass deportation of these people will magically improve their lives and take Britain back to some 1930s type era when everyone was white.
Probably selective by the various stations I watched but most vox pops asking former Labour voters why they switched came back with “Starmer”
Steller performance by Reform is Council elections winning 1310 seats up 1308. Labour lost 1179 seats, Tories lost 482 seat, Lib Dems about same, Greens representation up by 2/3 to 418(not earth shattering).
With the Council elections, Labour has staged something of a clawback.
Tally of (council seats) so far, with six more councils to count is:
* Reform 1428 (up 1426 seats)
* Labour 955 (down 1380)
* LibDems 832 (up 152)
* Tories 773 (down 551)
* Greens 508 (up 367)
Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c1428pev1n0t#election-england
Clearly a very good night for Reform and the Greens.
Cautionary note too that the major movement has been from Labour to Reform.
Posters who say this will never happen in Oz (ie: Labor to One Nation), probably need to note this.
Moving fwd:
We’ll see how the Reform Councillors handle decision making and whether they start squabbling and become a rabble. This could all play into the hands of the Greens in a couple of years time if both Labour and the Tories remain on the nose.
Per Starmer – I believe he’ll be challenged at some stage before the end of May.
I don’t think U.K. Labour can continue with this any longer.
The challenge process is quite messy, in that if there are two candidates then the Labour Party rules require the membership to have a vote, which takes time (I believe a minimum of 30 days).
“I need more sleep but oh what a night and the numbers still climbing for the Greens, so many firsts”
—
Massive gains for the Greens overnight! Awesome to see the rise of the real progressive left.
“London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan has issued a lengthy statement calling for a change of direction for Labour where he pointedly did not endorse prime minister Keir Starmer.
:::
He warned that this was not a normal mid term protest vote.
“Mid-term elections can sometimes be difficult for the party in national government, but this is different. These results speak to a far-reaching disillusionment and fracturing in our politics, which cannot be downplayed, spun or dismissed,” the mayor said.
“Labour has lost votes in London to a variety of different parties, but the biggest change has been Labour voters switching to the Greens.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/local-elections-2026-uk-live-updates-results-b2972615.html#post-2364047
Well, not as bad as I expected for Labour with the council seats, but barely scraping over 1000 total after holding over 2500 (after the last few councils start counting tonight Australian time) isn’t something to boast about.
They were smashed in Wales meanwhile, Pasokification indeed. And in Scotland it looks like the SNP and Greens can continue as they are for another term.
Remember the recent discussions about who gets to be official Opposition in South Australia?
It looks like the Scots will now face the same dilemma, with Labour and Reform tied for second on 17 seats.
Yeah, Starmer’s cooked. He might go down kicking and screaming. I think it’s up to his closest supporters in the party to maybe break the news to him (it wouldn’t surprise me if some are already maneuvering but are trying to make sure their thumb is on the scale for the process of choosing his successor to make sure a Sensible Centrist™ gets elected over Rayner.)
@Wat Tyler
Yeah, I agree on that. Starmer’s current position of “I’m doing nothing wrong, I’m not going anywhere, I’m not going to change anything” is unsustainable.
Trouble for the Sensible Centrists™ is that Labour party rules state that the party membership gets the ultimate say in who becomes leader, and I reckon most of them will vote for Rayner.
It might actually be a Mark Carney-style turnabout for Labour if she’s leader and plays her cards right. I can picture her against the hostile press when they try to bring up her blunders and respond with something like “Nigel Farage is an actual fucking traitor for the Russians and you’re treating me as the criminal?!”
(Maybe not like that, I’m currently a bit busy with dinner to come up with a better line, but my point is that she could possibly bring on a political reset that works).
We have had the first resignations of newly elected councillors causing by-elections which will cost approx £ 25,000 a pop.
One is a teacher and elected as a Green who didn’t expect to win and only stood as a paper candidate. He’s employed by the council he was elected to and had to choose between his job or being a councillor. He chose his job as council employees can’t be a member of the council that employs him.
The other, from Reform, also didn’t expect to win and didn’t want to be a councillor in the first place and only did it to help them out.
They’ll be more soon as once they realise the work involved is more than attending a couple of meetings a month and the pay really isn’t that good.