Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)

In a quiet week for federal polling, Roy Morgan records only modest changes on last week’s result.

Newspoll didn’t report this week on its normal three-weekly schedule, presumably to allow clear air for the Farrer by-election. But we do have the weekly result from the ever-reliable Roy Morgan, which had Labor up a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one to 25%, One Nation up half to 22% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party lead narrows from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5 on preference flows from the 2025 election. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1605.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

383 thoughts on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. I’m reliably informed that Sarah Ferguson was seen walking around the corridors of the ABC with tears streaming down her face on the night of the last federal election.

  2. The “broken promise” attack line on this will be another “Albo is doomed because of The Voice” mirage.

    No-one will care in 2 years that he “broke a promise”. They will care how the Government has performed.

  3. “I’m reliably informed that Sarah Ferguson was seen walking around the corridors of the ABC with tears streaming down her face on the night of the last federal election.”

  4. Tim Wilson can’t even hit Sarah’s softball questions.

    Also, why does Tim Wilson look like a racoon.

  5. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 8:28 pm

    I believe people will care about broken promises during the next election campaign.
    _________________

    Umm yeah nah, lets see the opposition go to an election promising to reinstate the neg gearing changes, cut taxes on family trusts and capital gains and reverse all the income tax cuts.

  6. Inevitably Waters can’t be constructive and say something like “this is a good start and more is needed”, it’s toys out of the pram at sixteen paces like with Angus.

    And this is why the Greens are at best treading water.

  7. Little Timmy is on now making stuff up and Sarah just let’s him. Then again she just got toweled by Charmers.

  8. C’mon, after Timmy talking to his phone, “when it comes to honesty, did you have to look at your notes?” was pretty funny.

  9. I missed the Treasurer’s speech because, life. But it seems I didn’t miss much because it was mostly drip fed to the media over the course of the last week, as usual.

  10. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 8:33 pm
    Timmy has a bit of the Malcolm Turnbulls about him
    – – – – – – – — – – –
    No one, not even Leigh Sales, is going to swoon over Freedom Boy.

  11. Ghost Of Whitlam says:
    Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 8:27 pm
    The “broken promise” attack line on this will be another “Albo is doomed because of The Voice” mirage.

    No-one will care in 2 years that he “broke a promise”. They will care how the Government has performed.
    ——————————————-
    None of federal lib/nats and propaganda media units , propaganda has worked after the 2025 federal election , no matter how many times the propaganda has been repeated, no impact

  12. People pouring into the streets, chanting:

    What do we want?
    Negative Gearing
    When do we want it?
    Now.

    All over for Labor

  13. UK in crisis:
    The cost of government borrowing leapt to the highest level since 1998 as pressure grows on the Prime Minister to quit. The yield on 30-year gilts, which is sensitive to long-term inflation fears, jumped as much as 0.13 percentage points to just over 5.8pc on Tuesday morning. It marks a 28-year high and comes after 83 Labour MPs publicly demanded Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation.

  14. Broken promises matter if people wanted the promise kept and don’t if they agree with the change in policy.

    Last term Labor arguably broke a promise by changing the stage 3 tax cuts. Who got damaged by that? The Liberal Party. Who heard anyone giving Labor grief about that in the election campaign? Nobody.

    So the question is, will Australian voters get behind this or not? If not then the broken promise matters, but if they do then it doesn’t.

    L A W LAW tax cuts mattered because people wanted the tax cut as they usually do.

    Read my lips, no new taxes same thing. People cared because they wanted the promise kept.

    So we will see, won’t we.

  15. What the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units , can not get into their political heads is

    Voters want to see if the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units has alternative policies to labor , but they do not, they just re-used the same failed policies which the voters they need voted against , reason why they are not convincing non lib/nats voters to switch to them.

  16. The Debt situation in UK is going to get out of control a lot quicker than most people think. Although the markets have calmed down a little tiny bit (5.76% atm).
    Also Japan’s 30 year bond rate is about to hit a high not seen since the 1990s. The era of cheap money is over.

  17. Turned on the ABC to get the big whinge from SF.
    Come to poll bludger to get an actually summary .
    Thankyou

    It is about time tax moved from salaries to capital, good stuff.

    The real challenge is to work out, did labor do it because farrer showed the Liberals are stuffed, and no longer worth the worry, or did they do it because they realized doing nothing would leave room for one nation to continue their rubbish.

  18. @Landlord of the Year

    The danger for the government is if rents jump and property prices don’t fall.

    Sure.

    Although greedy existing landlords who are unaffected by this and still go out tomorrow to try and jack up rent and blame the government and negative gearing – it will happen – will provide a terrific blame magnet for any such rent rises and an excuse for the government to crack down on such things.

    (I remember commercial clients dealing with bad faith suppliers and contractors trying to blame the carbon tax for some outrageous try-on increases to the price of materials back in that era, including before carbon pricing had even taken effect).

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