The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up three points to 30%, the Coalition up one to 21%, One Nation down three to 24% and the Greens steady on 14%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition is unchanged at 54-46, but is much improved against One Nation at 57-43, out from 53-47. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor is steady on 38% and down one to 42%. Albanese’s lead over Taylor on preferred prime minister is out from 44-39 to 45-36, and his lead over Pauline Hanson is out from 50-39 to 54-35. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample size unspecified in the report, which was likely around 1100 (UPDATE: It was actually 1500, as is typical for this series).
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor steady at 29.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down one to 21.5% and the Greens down one to 13%. Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is unchanged at 54.5-45.5, while its lead on previous election preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1681.
Yeah. The Senate is much much harder to flip than the House of Representatives because with the senate 70% of the states that are up for election are just straight up safe Republican/Trump states whereas with the House of Representatives you have 16 seats that were won by margins of under 6% that are Republican held seats.
Team Katich, Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 12:51 pm
TK – nice exposition of the premise of geopolitical realism. Here’s my response:
1. “International relations are essentially based on anarchy – it is the Wild West. You can use terms like ‘rules based order’. But it is meaningless.”
‘Anarchy’ doesn’t mean ‘chaos’ or ‘the law of the jungle’. Just as individuals in a frontier town eventually build a courthouse and hire a sheriff to protect their property, nations build normative frameworks to regulate their behaviour towards each other because stability is more profitable than constant conflict.
2. “Chose your friends and enemies carefully and be ready if either of those sets decides they want to eat you or let the other eat you.”
Sound advice, but for a smaller power, ‘being ready’ requires building and securing the capacity to persuade enough bystander nations to come to your aid if you are attacked by an enemy and your previously-declared ‘friends’ stand back and let them do so. Otherwise, if every country must rely solely upon its own military to defend itself from any conceivable aggressor, humanity overall will be consigned to devoting ever-increasing proportions of the world’s resources to military production – including nuclear weapons proliferation.
(EDIT: look up a list of countries sorted by % of GDP spent on military in descending order. Ukraine is first on 40%. Second is only 9%, third and fourth 8%. This is what happens when a country is left largely on its own to defend itself against an invader it cannot persuade to leave it alone short of complete capitulation. Countries in that position will become more common, as more powerful nations form the view they can ‘gobble up’ their smaller neighbours without existential consequences.)
3. “Now, sure, engage in security arrangements. But such arrangements resulted in WW1 from the spark of one person being shot. Sovereign nations are a little more hesitant to abide by promises since then.”
WW1 was triggered by a “chain-gang” of secret, bilateral treaties. Modern security arrangements, like NATO, are transparent and institutionalised, because they are designed for deterrence, not secret escalation. Further, while nations can break promises, the post-WW2 era has seen a massive increase in formal treaties. If nations were truly “more hesitant”, we wouldn’t have seen the expansion of the EU or NATO, or the growth of complex mutual defense pacts in the Indo-Pacific. International integration has made the cost of “going it alone” higher than it has ever been in human history.
I put it that it is the very decision to abandon a commitment to a normative framework for international relations on the part of rogue state actors like North Korea, Iran, Israel, Russia and the US which is what makes ‘non-self-defence’ invasions more likely. That is why I support efforts to buttress norms of international behaviour (especially Article 2(4) of the UN Charter) and oppose efforts to (either practical or theoretical) to undermine them.
Newy boy
Your heartfelt concerns are legitimate in relation to Ukraine, but as to who should do “something” about dealing with Putin and his regime, will have little impact in the US until something catastrophic happens in the US – a la Japanese bombing of PH or the destruction of the Twin Towers – before the US will take the “problem” of Ukraine seriously.
If you have been to the US and have been through the likes of Montana, North Dekota and Wyoming, you will know how beautiful they are. Wyoming is known as the “Big Sky State” because that is what it is like.
Perhaps if a drone landed in a place like Billings – from Russia – then, run-of-the-mill US citizens may get to know and care about what happens in Ukraine
Tricot, Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 1:25 pm:
Tricot – unless we’re prepared to have a future in which as much as 40% of GDP has to go to military defence (see my post above at 1:17pm), someone somewhere better start trying to persuade as much of the world as possible that all acts of military aggression are unacceptable and will be treated as such by enough of the rest of the world to deter it.
That is why I support efforts to buttress norms of international behaviour
——————————————————
So do I. But they can, and often do, count for very little.
It is amazing we havent had nuclear proliferation. That may be thanks to good regional partnerships. Or how hard it is to possess and maintain an arsenal. Or efforts to restrict it. Or thanks to pax USA (and NATO). But with the MAGAification of the US, I wouldnt be relying on either atm. As Ukraine is finding out.
Team Katich, Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 1:33 pm:
TK – to some extent, we have had nuclear weapons proliferation since 1991: India, Pakistan, North Korea and (probably) Israel (not sure when exactly they developed theirs). And Russia has placed nukes in Belarus since 2022 (something many ‘realists’ haven’t objected to, despite its proximity to Poland and the Baltic States). But I think this spread will only accelerate, if it becomes accepted that security guarantees in exchange for nuclear disarmament/nonproliferation like the promises by Russia, the US and the UK to Ukraine in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum) are a dead letter. And if that happens, just watch the world’s spend on military defence explode. How that happens without devastating cuts to other expenditure, I can’t see.
My point is: why not choose a better way, that doesn’t require countries to do this for their own existence?
My point is: why not choose a better way?
—————————————
Choose life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaP7qmsQbSI
The relative lack of nuclear proliferation hasn’t been accidental. A lot of people who recognised the huge risk if nuclear weapons proliferated across many countries did a lot of work to achieve that. Gareth Evans was among the Australians who did so. His website has some good articles he wrote about it.
Israel appears to have developed nuclear weapons in the 1970s. There was evidence of secret tests in the South Altanic in conjunction with South Africa in 1979. South Africa also gave up its nukes after apartheid ended in the 90s. See
https://www.npolicy.org/article_file/The_1979_South_Atlantic_Flash__The_Case_for_an_Israeli_Nuclear_Test.pdf
Nuclear weapons are costly both to develop and maintain in safe working order. Many military theorists believe that most countries are better off with a larger conventional defence force. I share that view for Australia.
Nuclear advocates often fail to consider the dangers of the responses they cause. Israel v Iran is a good example. Would Iran be any more able to defeat the IDF if Israel did not have nukes? I doubt it.
Until terrorist state and corrupt regime Iran affirms Israel’s right to exist then Israel will just keep on winning and Iran, and the sick lefties and the labor left who support Iran will just have to suck it up.
There has been no rules based international order as Iran for45 years has not adhered to it with the support of the sick lefties.
Iran militarily is in ruins and its economy as well, Trump made sure along with Israel that they payed a massive price.
Winning!
Dems in USA also love Iran regime.
I wonder how much hopium, and copium the Liberals will get from dodgy polling and mythical 10% swings in prepolls that don’t happen this time in 2028.
Socrates at 1.57 pm
“South Africa also gave up its nukes after apartheid ended in the 90s.”
The key decision was made be De Klerk in 1989 before the end of apartheid, though made in the context of his attempt to overcome the apartheid regime’s belated pariah status. Thus:
“South Africa’s nuclear weapons programme can be regarded as the “initial conditions” stage, followed by two periods of South Africa’s disarmament: the critical juncture or (trans)formative moment, 1989 to 1993, and the period from 1993 to the present as the self-reinforcement stage.”
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/25751654.2024.2368297?needAccess=true
Article by J. Pretorious, ‘Staying the Course: Lessons from South Africa for Irreversibility of Nuclear Disarmament’ (2024), p 43 (see also 46-47).
pied pipersays:
Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 2:24 pm
Dems in USA also love Iran regime.
============================================
That’s because they both are really Lizard people and this war is actually over whether Lizard people or Trump control the worlds adrenochrome supply. As a power vacuum emerged in the adenochrome supply chain after the death of Trump’s good friend Epstein.
So did I out Qanon you or not PP?
Not sure if it’s been posted, but there’s an Economist/YouGov poll out for the US Midterms.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_i4K4elJ.pdf
Generic Congressional Vote (with Registered voters)
Democrat: 44%
Republican: 41%
Donald Trump approval,
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 57%
Military Action against Iran,
Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 61%
Geez, only +3 for the Dems? What the heck is their leadership doing? They should in theory have a massive lead with all this crap going on on.
Dr Doolittle 2:59
Thanks, I didn’t know that that was when the decision was made.
I think the point remains- States can give up nukes if the political climate is right.
Sadly for countries like Ukraine, next to powers like Russia, it’s not so easy.
Thankfully Australia is nowhere near that vulnerable. Hence IMO we don’t need nukes.
Dems in USA also love Iran regime.
——————————
Sure. But did you see the documentary that unearthed video of Trump and Satan in bed together?
Friendlyjordies on the Victorian election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJ65Q1ObHXY
Plenty of good points against Pauline.
“She’s like a McDonald’s franchise of MAGA now, she used to have a fish and chip shop, she’s brought a franchise.”
Geez, only +3 for the Dems? What the heck is their leadership doing? They should in theory have a massive lead with all this crap going on on.
————————————————–
I posted earlier that I think 40(odd)% of US peeps are, deep down, quite happy with all this crap going on. They may disapprove of it when polled, but will vote for the GOP and Trump regardless.
Team Katichsays:
Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 3:36 pm
Dems in USA also love Iran regime.
——————————
Sure. But did you see the documentary that unearthed video of Trump and Satan in bed together?
=============================================
You mean this one?
It seems legit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1xR3Xidq84
@TK
I read a comment recently (forgot where, I should really keep a collection somewhere of ones that stick with me) that US Democratic voters on the whole want a different thing to what they’re being offered.
Essentially that the average Dem is absolutely livid about the status quo and hate what Trump is doing to the country, but the Democratic establishment is like “It’s fine, it’ll pass, just keep on donating to us and we’ll bring everything back to normal” and when this is objected to then they’ll get nastier to their own voters than they are to MAGA Republicans.
Sure, the case might pass that the Democrats get the House (narrowly) in 2026 and then the Senate and Presidency (also narrowly) in 2028, then what? A repeat of the Biden 2021-25 term where nothing substantial changes and the voter base rallies for change and they’re just told to “shut up and vote Blue” by the DNC Consultants, then someone even worse than Trump wins all three houses in 2032?
I’m seeing it play out on other US blogs, there’s still Democratic Centrists livid that Graham Platner knocked Janet Mills out of the Maine Senate primary.
At an ABC radio forum today, Andrew Hastie said:
It’s the most intelligent thing I’ve ever heard him say even though the last part about gas and electricity prices is wrong. I’m highlighting this not because it is remarkable that he is factually challenged – that is to be expected of the Liberal party.
What is remarkable is how east coast domestic gas prices have decoupled from global prices:
(DWGM and BRI are the Victorian and Brisbane spot markets and the ACCC Netback is the export price minus production and shipping costs.)
Note that when the war started, domestic and export prices diverged. Further, the average price in all domestic markets dropped to $9.22/GJ in March – the lowest average price for any month since January 2022. Those low prices have continued – the DWGM price is currently $7.71/GJ and Brisbane $9.63/GJ.
Whether this is due to reduced demand because of record low east coast gas-fired electricity generation or gas producers being on their best behaviour as the govt finalises the Gas Reservation Scheme, it is impossible to tell. Regardless, low gas and electricity prices limiting Trump’s inflation is a good thing.
Data sources: https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2026/qed-q1-2026.pdf and https://www.aemo.com.au/ for current prices.
Yeah and even the pod save guys who are centrists to the core of little democrat hearts were annoyed with the DNC chair (I think) who got elected saying he would release the election look back and then decided not to.
Some claim it is because the report shows Israel / chasing Cheney republicans while ignoring democrat base cost them the election. Until it is released people are gonna speculate.
His pod save interview should become a ‘how not to’ interview guide in serious media training.
Ah, bang on time. Final YouGov seat projection polls for Scotland and Wales.
Scotland: (paywalled from the Times so going off wikipedia)
SNP: 62 (-2 seats from 2021 election)
Reform: 19 (+10)
Labour: 17 (-5)
Green: 16 (+8)
Lib Dems: 8 (+4)
Conservative: 7 (-24)
Looks like the SNP will continue in government there.
Wales:
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2026-05-05/plaid-cymru-on-course-to-be-largest-party-in-the-senedd-according-to-latest-poll
Plaid Cymru: 43 (+30 seats from 2021 election)
Reform: 34 (+34)
Labour: 12 (-18)
Conservative: 4 (-12)
Green: 2 (+2)
Lib Dems: 1 (=)
In this one, PC would only need Labour to form a majority, but the Greens would probably be welcomed in the coalition regardless.
Kirs, tbh, the average Dem voter is going to vote Dem no matter if it is AOC or Schumer running the place. And with Trump there, they will turnout to do so.
What of the disengaged, the disinterested, distracted, downtrodden and the independent voter? Some will look for shiny things, others will look for charisma, some looking for hope, others for hate. They are a mixed bunch and my gut is that your average old fashioned Dem candidate isnt attracting any of them.
It’s early days yet, but I reckon Tucker Carlson is lining himself up for a serious go as the Republican candidate for the 2032 Presidential election.
Will the Democrats be able to stop him? Especially if they run with Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris again in 2028? Doesn’t look likely.
That is of course unless they go so badly in 2028 that they lose to JD Vance, that would probably be the humiliating wake-up call that they need to shun leadership from people like Jeffries and Schumer and that arrogant hollow DNC chair and rebuild themselves as the Republicans did after Romney lost to Obama in 2012.
A landslide victory for the SNP in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru winning in Wales. I guess when Labour fails, separatist nationalism succeeds.
The DNA of the Coalition is on full display in Victoria
Simply they decry investment into public transport, public schools and public health
Society to them is if you can afford you get (assisted by tax cuts) and if you can not afford well go whistle Dixie because there is no place for you
Hence IPA Wilson’s (the female not the what ever he/she is at federal level and also of the IPA) attack on government “spending billions on roads, hospitals and schools” as reported at The Guardian yesterday
And she left out rail!!!
And public housing
Chalmers confirms there will finally be serious investment in fuel storage (plus fertiliser). $10 billion for a national storage facility that will contain several billion litres.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-06/government-commits-10-billion-for-australian-fuel-supply/106582514
Previous governments have been warned about this problem dating back to Howard. Good to see it finally being done seriously.
Surely nobody will argue this one now?
It’s interesting that petrol seems to be the last fossil fuel that is actually useful for daily life as it is primarily used for long distance travel. I’m guessing the increasing intake of EVs will help relieve the fuel supply for truck drivers and farmers, and would also save a huge amount of CO2 from entering the atmosphere.
It’s over!!
Trump has declared victory!!
Who could have guessed?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/us/politics/trump-iran-war-political-crisis-rhetoric.html?smid=url-share
Has he told Israel?
It certainly looks like he is building, but wouldn’t he want to have a go at 2028, surely dispatching Vance would be trivial and really who could the demo run? Mayor Pete, Gov Newsome, it will be a shambles on the democratic side.
themunzsays:
Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 4:31 pm
It’s over!!
Trump has declared victory!!
Who could have guessed?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/us/politics/trump-iran-war-political-crisis-rhetoric.html?smid=url-share
Has he told Israel?
======================================
Has anyone told Iran they have lost?
As I suspect it will be news to them too.
@WWP
Carlson probably wants to bide his time, the electorate in 2028 would be pretty pissed off at Trump and his lot and it would be a hard election for a Republican to win.
The one after would be a safer bet for him, especially if the Democrats win 2028 with one of their invertebrate milquetoast do-nothing consultant-reliant frontrunners. He’s only 56 at the moment, and he’d be 63 in November 2032, and also his humbling by Rupert Murdoch would be largely forgotten by then.
A witness at the Royal Commission today is quoted as saying:
“She says students in her classes fail to make a distinction between Israel and the Jewish people”.
And yet whenever something happens to a Jewish person in Australia, the media – including the ABC – seeks the views of the Israeli government about it, and when questioned why they do this, they reply “that as the world’s only Jewish state, the views of Israel are relevant to these significant domestic Australian matters”.
So who exactly is to blame for many in the community struggling to always “make a distinction between Israel and the Jewish people”???
Just sayin…..
Thomas Brian Mutter
Ignoring impacts of burning fossil fuels on climate change, oil is still a very space- and weight-efficient way to store energy. This makes it hard to beat for transport.
To illustrate by example, in car design you need a battery weighing around 500kg to replace a 50 litre diesel fuel tank weighting 60kg. So yes, for some niches, petrol and diesel are hard to replace.
EVs are now getting efficient and cost competitive. Combined with their elimination of the fuel bill they should become the preferred choice for most urban travel and freight delivery. Petrol engines are definitely replaceable for those purposes.
Uses like mining and agricultural equipment already have effective electric options available. Fortescue is switching to a battery electric haul pac fleet in its mines.
Long distance freight and air travel are the hardest uses to replace with BE.
Plus even if we sold 100% EVs and no new petrol or diesel powered vehicles from tomorrow, it would still take almost 20 years to replace our car and truck fleets.
So we are still going to need the fuel storage for a few decades, fertiliser indefinitely.
The genocidal maniacs on both sides have a vested interest in dissolving national boundaries.
Sane, rational, decent people on both sides know that an Australian jew is not the same thing as an Israeli jew.
But hey! If globalizing the Intifada is good enough for Netanyahu and for Khamenei II and their respective echo chambers in their homelands and abroad, who are we to argue?
Altogether now, shout it loud and shout it proud: From the River to the Sea!
They should probably watch this clip with Kyle’s Mom from South Park to understand the difference between Israel and the Jewish people.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PRSIx29iwN0
Polanski’s anti-police attack and the rampant anti-Semitism from their candidates that has been unveiled since they started to see actual scrutiny has massively dampened the UK Greens support outside of the Muslim vote.
If that Gorton by-election was being held today I suspect they would have lost it to Reform.
“It’s interesting that petrol seems to be the last fossil fuel that is actually useful for daily life”
LPG.
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 4:49 pm
They should probably watch this clip with Kyle’s Mom from South Park to understand the difference between Israel and the Jewish people.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PRSIx29iwN0
==========================================
Which is a fair point about Jewish people who don’t support Netanyahu’s genocide, like Kyle’s mum obviously didn’t. What attitude should we take to Jewish or other people who are supporters of Netanyahu’s genocide, even here in Australia?
What’s this based on, may I ask?
This is an interesting dialogue about what China might, should or won’t do in relation to the Iran War.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Jo2YJ8dr84
Also I’d like to take back the doomposting crap I said in 2025 about MAGA being the Fourth Reich.
Early 2025 was bad, there were definitely parallels to 1933 Germany there, what with DOGE and ICE and all that crap, but at some point later on last year, they blinked and lost their momentum.
Now while they’re still doing horrible evil shit, they just don’t have the sauce anymore to do what Hitler did in 1934 and beyond. And if they even tried, Trump’s too much of a coward to step over that line and go full totalitarian.
I think that turning point happened earlier this year when ICE was intimidated out of Minneapolis. There’s not really any coming back from that for the fascists to win like they wanted.
No problem William
It was in an e-mail received directly by me last January from the Acting International Commissioning Editor of ABC News, in response to a complaint I made. I can forward it to you, if you like. I have referred to it before on the blog.
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-in-frame-for-top-liberal-party-job-20260506-p5zu85.html
archived no paywall version: https://archive.is/C5xwC
Former prime minister Tony Abbott is in the frame to become president of the Liberal Party and join ally Angus Taylor in the fight to reclaim the party’s status as Australia’s dominant right-wing force from One Nation.
In what would be his most high-profile political role since leading the nation, Abbott is expected to put his hand up to lead the party’s organisational wing, which runs campaigns, fundraising and strategy, before a vote to appoint the position in late May.
It may turn into a contest between Abbott and another former party leader, Alexander Downer, who has also been mooted as a candidate.
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 5:03 pm
Polanski’s anti-police attack and the rampant anti-Semitism from their candidates that has been unveiled since they started to see actual scrutiny has massively dampened the UK Greens support outside of the Muslim vote.
====================================================
Any actual polling evidence that their vote is decreasing or is this just what you want to happen?
Certainly holding the view that Israel’s action are tantamount to genocide in Gaza. Is pretty much the majority view in the UK. So candidates who say just that are unlikely to become unpopular. Obviously there is always a few go to far and probably would be punished at the ballot box for it. As long as the UK Greens distance themselves from these odd extremists they should be fine in my opinion.
“AI Overview
A June 2025 YouGov poll indicates that 55% of British adults oppose Israel’s military actions in Gaza, with 82% of those opposed viewing the actions as genocide, totaling 45% of the total UK population holding this view. The polling also shows 87% of opposing Labour voters classify the actions as genocide.”
@Entropy
Probably something like “Enjoy it while it lasts. Your rubber-faced BiBi faces an election in October and the numbers say he’s going to lose and will probably spend the rest of his life in prison for war crimes and corruption where he belongs.”
You know, talk to them how One Nation supporters talk to us on the progressive side of politics. Only in this case we have truth and evidence.
Thanks.
They’re fucked.
If we label someone as “a supporter of genocide” then we should globalize the (potentially illegal phrase partially redacted) paraglide into their backyard and murder them! They’re literally Hitler! We can’t have Hitlers in our city!
It’s very easy to justify whatever you want to anyone anywhere when you frame someone on the other side of the planet, as being on the other side of a war of people you support, as “supporting genocide”. Murder, burning down their house, throwing red paint onto their house, blowing up their car, it’s all deserved because the moral authorities have decided that person loves genocide!
The correct answer of course, is you can hold whatever attitude you like towards anyone. For any reason, good, bad, or stupid, or apathetic. Just don’t expect people to:
1) Accept potentially defamatory framing of that person just because you think it.
2) Follow your desires of how everyone else should treat them.
3) Allow you to attack them or interfere in their lives, especially in a criminal manner.
“I think that turning point happened earlier this year when ICE was intimidated out of Minneapolis. There’s not really any coming back from that for the fascists to win like they wanted.”
========================================
Any suggestions for what we call this event:
“The night of the _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ?
My fill in suggest is ” Iced VoVo”
Entropy, mine is ‘moist balaclavas’.
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 5:21 pm
======================================
It is the majority view in most countries in the world, even in the USA it is pretty close to being that.
“AI Overview
As of August 2025, approximately 47% of US adults believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, a figure that has increased from 39% in April 2024.”