Two days to go until the Farrer by-election, which as always is the subject of a Poll Bludger election guide and will be covered here on election night and beyond with live results and projections (see the Nepean results page for an idea of how that will look) and attendant commentary.
The only opinion poll to have emerged during the campaign came from independent Michelle Milthorpe’s camp, and in showing her almost level with One Nation candidate David Farley on the primary vote it suggested she was not quite where she needed to be, given that Liberal and Nationals preferences will assuredly favour Farley. As for the Coalition’s own prospects, the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column spoke last week of “anecdotal reports” of Liberal polling that put its support “in the low teens and falling”, while former Nationals leader David Littleproud said in March that he expected the party to finish last (which he presumably meant out of Farley, Milthorpe and the Liberals).
A Liberal source quoted by Sky News struck a still more encouraging note for Farley in saying he would win “even without preferences from the Coalition”. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports the Liberals’ decision to favour Farley over Milthorpe on their how-to-vote cards has “Labor hardheads stumped”, given the imperative for the Coalition to deny One Nation a foothold in the lower house. In her column in Nine Newspapers today, Niki Savva notes two explanations: that conservatives in both parliament and the party membership “would have gone nuclear” if they did not favour One Nation (also the view of Campbell’s Liberal sources), and that Milthorpe once elected would prove impossible to dislodge, “whereas One Nation MPs tend to implode and quit”.
For all the high expectations surrounding his prospects, Farley has had a troubled campaign. Reports over the past few weeks have noted he made a donation to Milthorpe’s campaign for the 2025 election, describing her at the time as a “straight shooter”, and had expressed interest in running as a Labor candidate at the 2022 election. Farley has departed from key points of his party’s script, telling a candidates’ debate last week that the number of migrants coming to Australia was “not too high”, and saying one advantage of better economic management would be in allowing for “more generous” foreign aid.
For her part, Michelle Milthorpe has sought to distance herself from the “teal” label, invoking as her model Cathy McGowan and her successor Helen Haines, independent members for Indi on the other side of the Victorian border. Milthorpe told The Australian earlier this week that net zero by 2050 was “untenable”, that coal and gas must “play their part”, and that Australia should consider opening more oil refineries. The Australian last week reported that Milthorpe’s claim that Climate 200 had provided only 2% of her campaign funding was complicated by the $60,000 she has received from Regional Voices Fund, whose donors largely overlap with Climate 200’s. She has also indirectly benefited from the more than $500,000 raised by progressive campaign group GetUp! to target One Nation during the campaign.
“How is making a point about how the Labor votes will flow as a result of the objective fact that Labor did not run a candidate and “attack on Labor”?
Hard being Green’s point was clearly psychological. One is allowed to use objective facts in a public forum. ”
@Darcy
He’s trying to imply that if Labor had run a candidate and preferenced the independent, which they would have, One Nation wouldn’t have been elected. It’s a dubious claim considering the Liberals and Nationals are both preferencing One Nation. And it has the right to be scrutinised when part of Teal’s success has been Labor voters strategically voting for them at the general elections. The leakage of Labor votes going to One Nation deciding this contest isn’t an objective fact; it’s an opinion. And even political analysts would suggest it’s debatable at best.
Not sure how to post images here but there is another image one of those corflutes of issue at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-09/farrer-by-election-voters-head-to-polls/106657078
One Nation ahead 53/47 in the limited polling
Rural seat
ONP up ~20 points across the country
Libs losing Sussan Ley’s personal vote
Seats like Farrer shifting heavily to ONP based on demographics
How is that just “Based on vibes”?
I’d like to see a list of reasons the Independent could win that doesn’t include anecdotal evidence or anything based on vibes.
Arange
One nation being up 20% , get their primary vote to 26% , is unlikely enough for a total of 2-5 federal seats , in Lib/nats held seat.
One nation primary vote of 26% in this by-election , is a fail for One nation , One nation needs over 30% in the primary vote , all of swing against the liberal party primary vote , if its over 25%
Hello all. Testing. Logging in for tonight. I presume a new thread will go up presently.
Presumably the early votes to report tonight will favour One Nation – Milthorpe’s best vote is likely to be in the big booths in Albury.
Arange
Helen Haines holds Indi, a similar seat and ON candidate hasn’t run a good campaign against a well known independent. I tipped ON to win but wouldn’t be surprised if the independent won.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31633-118.htm
TCP Candidates
Milthorpe (Indepedent) / Farley (One Nation)
Farrer by-election Service Plan
https://www.aec.gov.au/farrer/service-plan.htm
Count speed expectations
TCP likelihood
Counting on by-election night
Counting after polling night
Scrutineers
Reporting the vote count
https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2026/05-09.htm
Look legit. But no, dirty tricks impersonating AEC signage
New thread.
The signage failed to mention Big Gina’s $1.5 m plane donation to Hanson, nor the same donor’s all expenses junket for Hanson and Ashby to Mar-a-Lago to suck up to Trump
Nadia
Put me down for Milthorpe.