Federal polls: RedBridge Group and Freshwater Strategy (open thread)

Two similar sets of voting intention numbers, and an improved result for the government on its handling of the fuel crisis.

Two new federal poll results:

• The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group poll that finds the Coalition recovering from what was perhaps a too-bad-to-be-true result last month, with Labor down a point to 31%, the Coalition up five to 22%, One Nation down two to 27% and the Greens steady on 13%. Two-party preferred measures have Labor leading the Coalition by 54-46 and One Nation by 55-45 (in each case compared with 53-47 last time). A three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese at 33%, Pauline Hanson at 23% and Angus Taylor floundering at 14%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are improved by five points in net terms, with his approval rating at 34% and disapproval at 43%. Angus Taylor is up one to minus two, Pauline Hanson down two to minus one, Matt Canavan up one to minus two, Larissa Waters down two to minus four, Chris Bowen down two to minus 16, and Donald Trump down three to minus 58. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1014.

• The Sunday News Corp papers had a Freshwater Strategy poll with Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 23%, One Nation on 25% and the Greens on 12% — numbers identical to the last such poll a month ago. Anthony Albanese leads Angus Taylor by 44-38 on preferred prime minister. Net approval ratings are plus 10 for Angus Taylor, plus four for Matt Canavan, plus five for Pauline Hanson (down five), and minus nine for Albanese. The poll found 30% would be more likely and 24% less likely to vote One Nation if it entered a coalition with the Liberals and Nationals, while 34% would be more likely and 27% less likely to vote for the Liberals or Nationals. The poll also shows a marked improvement for the government on its response to fuel prices, with 31% now satisfied, up from 17% in last month’s poll, and 47% dissatisfied, down from 59%. Thirty-three per cent said they were satisfied with the government’s response to the Iran war, up three, with dissatisfaction at 37%, up four. The government’s announcement of cuts to the NDIS had 47% supportive and 25% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware and 31% not aware. Considerable further detail should follow reasonably shortly on the pollster’s website.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

579 thoughts on “Federal polls: RedBridge Group and Freshwater Strategy (open thread)”

Comments Page 12 of 12
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  2. Donald Trump’s own military intel says he’s failing to make any progress on the key goal he says his war in the Middle East is designed to achieve.
    Assessments by U.S. intelligence suggest Iran would currently need exactly the same period of time to build a nuclear bomb as it would have needed in the aftermath of Trump’s attacks on facilities in the country last June, Reuters reports.
    The president claimed after those initial assaults that he had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. His officials instead suggested the attacks had pushed any prospective timeline on building a bomb back by a year.
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/president-donald-trumps-own-military-intel-says-hes-failing-to-damage-iranian-nuclear-program/

  3. It is so peculiar that those typically loudest on the “do something” narrative are now amongst the first to latch on to the “broken promises” headlines.

  5. Bizzcansays:
    Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 9:18 pm
    It is so peculiar that those typically loudest on the “do something” narrative are now amongst the first to latch on to the “broken promises” headlines.
    =============================================

    You are damned if you do and damned if you don’t with some people. Which only goes to prove their total motive is to damn and has nothing to do with trying to promote good policy for the country.

  6. “Blow-ins can be pretty ignorant at times. No real harm done, but insensitive, nonetheless.”
    ========================================

    So the site is made up of either blow-ins or blowhards?

    I’m striving to bridge that gap by being both.

  7. Douglas and Milko are the names of two beloved dogs. Blow-ins can be pretty ignorant at times. No real harm done, but insensitive, nonetheless.

    ==================================================

    yabba (assuming that is your real name)

    blow ins can become malignant and establish trademarks of their own

  8. Yabba if you could write a post emphasising how much of a grub I am for disrespecting the memory of D&M’s dogs, that’d be great

  9. While cynically seeking a ‘truce’ in order to stage a militaristic propaganda parade, Russia is ramping up its killing of Ukrainian civilians:

    “Russian attacks on Ukraine kill 15 civilians, injure at least 72 over past day”
    https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-15-killed-injure-more-than-72-over-past-day/

    Here’s what President Zelenskyy had to say about it:

    The Ukrainian president said: “It is utter cynicism to ask for a ceasefire in order to hold propaganda celebrations while carrying out missile and drone strikes every single day leading up to it. Russia could cease fire at any moment, and this would stop the war and our responses.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/05/zelenskyy-russia-parade-truce-poltava-attack

  10. @Entropy
    “So it is an anti-Jewish conspiracy theory to suggest that the justice system discriminates more against Muslims than Jewish people?

    Also just saying it is a terrible slur against our justice system?

    Yet it is also perfectly all right for Jewish people to complain the justice system is failing them, which some at the RC seem to have expressed?

    Yet if you claim it is failing Muslim people even worse, then that would be both an anti-Jewish conspiracy and a slur against that same system?

    That is a lot of hypocrisy to take in but I think I’ve probably covered it all ”

    For one, I do disagree our justice system discriminates against Muslims more.

    For the second, my reference to your slur on the justice system was on this line of yours –

    I also suspect in either the UK or Australia someone was suspected of alleged terrorist or war crimes murdering Jewish people they would certainly be investigated and if charges laid they would not be out on bail either.

    This is an outright claim that if someone in the position of BRS had murdered Jews instead of Afghans he wouldn’t be out on bail. That the courts in Australia gave BRS bail because of the religion of who he killed.

    That is an incredible slur to throw at the judge who granted bail based on nothing more than your feelpinions. I stand by slamming it. How you call it hypocritical for me to do it I have no idea. I am extremely consistent on my defence of the rule of law and disdain for populist complaints from all sides, always have been. Everyone is entitled to complain – and that goes for Jewish lobby groups and Palestinian protesters both, because you personally are definitely hypocritical in your complaints about lobby groups complaining – but that doesn’t extend to slandering judges making honest decisions in accordance with the law.

    I have set out the legal principles of why BRS was granted bail. I am no friend of BRS. I believe he dunnit and I’m glad he lost his defo case and I’m glad they’ve put together the case to charge him and bring him to trial. And I’m also glad that he’s going to receive a fair trial and not be potted or freed based on anybody’s political views whether yours or mine or Kerry Stokes’.

  12. Ok, Hegseth is currently giving a press conference. “Project Freedom” is separate from “Operation Fury”. And therefore, Iran is the aggressor. Also that gets the Trump Admin to get around the 60 day rule on the war powers act.

  13. Bring back The King, his entourage and the renewably sympathetic horse drawn carriages.
    The economic impact would be considerable.
    The pollsters should target the voting public for a response and demand the existing political parties declare their allegiance.
    It could be the beginning of a trend says King Donald of the Americas.
    King Vladimir, King Benjamin, King Winston,
    Emperor Xi Junping or Queen Sanae!
    They could spend their time organizing feasts and leave the famines to the unwashed.
    How would potential royalty like Queen Pauline and King Barnaby, a truly royal match, feel about King Anthony and his commoner wife.
    King Katter needs to be considered and the monarchial role of the dowager queen Gina ?
    How would the anti gambling contingent feel about a “dowager”?
    And enough of this pretence of knowing all the answers!
    Just let the fourth industrial revolution get about its progression.
    Bring back the stumpjump plough, the flat earth, unpasteurized milk and real money!
    Repeal the he concept of climate change, its targets and recycling!
    The world would be a better place on some of Nath’ s hooch.

  14. Hegseth is at great pains to explain that “Project Freedom” is a temporary measure, alongside the larger “Operation Epic Fury”.

    At least they don’t bullshit us with where their priorities lie these days…

  15. Kronomex says:
    Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 10:05 pm

    A few suitcases full of cash and Donnie is all yours. To quote PP: Winning.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/05/big-tech-wants-to-punish-australia-over-albaneses-media-bargaining-code-and-trump-might-be-inclined-to-listen

    ________________________________________

    The Aussie media are going out of their way to generate drama. This has all happened before just a few months ago – USA was “pushing back” on streaming quotas:

    https://www.capitalbrief.com/article/behind-closed-doors-trump-administration-pushes-back-on-labors-streaming-quotas-76f80770-a7bc-4792-a4d1-f9c07347d902/

    They happened anyway:

    https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/news/new-australian-content-laws-streaming-services

    And in aftermath, the whole affair was such a non-issue that people writing “Google is mad” headlines now have totally forgotten about the “Netflix is mad” headlines from only a few months ago.

  16. Mavis from last page: that would be pretty courageous (in the Humphrey Appleby sense) of the Alberta UCP government. Despite the ridiculous streak of conservative governments there, they didn’t actually win the last election by all that much – UCP 52.5 NDP 44 (49 seats to 38) isn’t a walkover like the ones they had before the NDP broke through for their one term in 2015. Polling for next year’s election seems pretty similar to the last election, with UCP ahead of NDP and a few minor right-wing parties buzzing around the edges. If this secession stuff manages to split the right-wing vote between relatively normal and Trump types, they could end up with a repeat of 2015.

  17. The yields on UK Gilts (Bonds) are soaring tonight. 10 year rate is 0.12%, 30 year rate is up 0.15%. That is like half of todays official rate rise in one day. The bond market does not normally move that fast.
    The coming British political crisis is causing a monetary crisis in front of it. This could get out of hand really quickly….

  18. On the decision to cut the Inland Rail link, now $45 billion, I have no criticism.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-05/albanese-government-slashes-funding-inland-rail-project/106644902

    This boondoggle started being approved under Abbott with no public business case and no clear idea of how the route at the Brisbane end would be finished. Even worse, at one point Barnaby Joyce tried to deviate the route to the west to run past a property he owned!

    The Inland Rail Link joins Snowy II among the LNP projects that were potentially viable, but ruined by lack of planning and hasty political decisions to proceed.

  22. steve davis – could be some of that, and partly just that ON seem to have plateaued across all polls, but I think the YouGov poll 2 weeks ago was an unusually poor sample for Labor, so this poll is a bit of a correction in the primaries. Also, the TPP calculations are respondent allocated, so they tend to jump around more than TPPs done via a preference flow based on the last election.

  23. When even a poll commissioned by Sky News shows Labor at 54% 2PP, that’s when you know that they have definitely gained back support in the last 2 months.

  25. If One Nation has indeed peaked, it feels like their rise and plateau has occurred way too quickly, so I’ll err on the side of caution for now. How will this current polling trend affect their chances in Farrer given that their support as stagnated at best and is beginning to decline at worst?

  26. Bludgeoned Westie

    If you look at this graph the plateau for the Hanson cult broadly overlaps with Trump’s war:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Australian_federal_election#/media/File:Opinion_Polling_for_the_next_Australian_election_primary_vote.svg

    That is the broad picture but it will have changed steadily over time, as more of the Australian electorate cottoned on to the fact that Trump is actually a strategic loser despite his boasting.

    The SA election occurred before many analysts had worked out that Trump is a strategic loser, let alone the marginal voters. The Hanson cult had lots of publicity, Labor was a shoo-in, and the SA Libs should have pipped the Vic Libs, the WA Libs and Tassie Labor as especially woeful.

    We are now 6 weeks since the SA election. There are few Trump spruikers left in Australia, the most obvious being Hanson and her puppet-master Gina R. Most of the marginal voters have worked out that Trump is a big cause of their economic woes, if they can work out anything.

    Those are the broad factors. Specific to Farrer there is the widespread perception that this is a two-horse race, between Milthorpe and Farley (Hanson). At issue is not just where will the former Labor voters go, as Griff asked, with the answer being probably around 80+% going to Milthorpe. So that is an extra 12% for Milthorpe on top of her 2025 primary of 20%.

    The bigger issue is where will the erstwhile Lib voters go, especially the educated (in the sense of some professional independence) women. The Lib candidate is a local lawyer who is out of her depth in her responses to questions. Where will the hitherto Lib voting women lawyers and real estate spruikers go? To the Hanson man with his misogynist views, or to an independent woman who has, in her own polite way, had a go? Goll was pertinent in suggesting the latter.

    The Lib primary is likely to drop by around 20 to 25%, which will give Ms Ley some pleasure.

    Where will most of that go? It depends not on the vibe but on the local campaigning. How has Farley (Hanson) been going? After being outed by the SMH as a rejected Labor aspirant, has he or his minders given any coherent response? Hardly. He and they are just relying on the vibe.

    If the Lib primary drops by 25% and at least half of that goes to Milthorpe, then that (on top of 80+% of the 2025 Labor vote) puts her up above 40% primary, or close to it, given the long field and the likely increase in the informal vote (contra Mr Mackerras, as Bird of paradox pointed out), which is where she needs to be to win on preferences.

    Many have assumed that the Libs’ foot-in-mouth decision to recommend preferences to the Hanson cult will gift the seat to Farley. What has received less attention is the likely size of the drop in the Lib primary (the early April poll had it around 16%, compared to 43% for Ms Ley).

    Logically, the bigger the drop in the Lib primary the less decisive the Lib preference move will be, because there will be fewer Lib votes. And the fact of recommending preferences to Hanson and the inability of the Lib candidate to convincingly explain that could significantly increase the size of the drop in the Lib vote, as many more hitherto Lib women voters go 1 to Milthorpe.

  29. Entropy

    “If you don’t like what they are doing. I’m pretty sure a LNP/ON coalition Government will unwind those changes if you want to vote them in.”

    I agree with the changes but Labor shouldn’t have ruled them out and then flipped. That’s pretty shitty behaviour. The voters don’t like that and as you say it makes it easy to overturn coz it never had a mandate.

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