Two new federal poll results:
• The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group poll that finds the Coalition recovering from what was perhaps a too-bad-to-be-true result last month, with Labor down a point to 31%, the Coalition up five to 22%, One Nation down two to 27% and the Greens steady on 13%. Two-party preferred measures have Labor leading the Coalition by 54-46 and One Nation by 55-45 (in each case compared with 53-47 last time). A three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese at 33%, Pauline Hanson at 23% and Angus Taylor floundering at 14%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are improved by five points in net terms, with his approval rating at 34% and disapproval at 43%. Angus Taylor is up one to minus two, Pauline Hanson down two to minus one, Matt Canavan up one to minus two, Larissa Waters down two to minus four, Chris Bowen down two to minus 16, and Donald Trump down three to minus 58. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1014.
• The Sunday News Corp papers had a Freshwater Strategy poll with Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 23%, One Nation on 25% and the Greens on 12% — numbers identical to the last such poll a month ago. Anthony Albanese leads Angus Taylor by 44-38 on preferred prime minister. Net approval ratings are plus 10 for Angus Taylor, plus four for Matt Canavan, plus five for Pauline Hanson (down five), and minus nine for Albanese. The poll found 30% would be more likely and 24% less likely to vote One Nation if it entered a coalition with the Liberals and Nationals, while 34% would be more likely and 27% less likely to vote for the Liberals or Nationals. The poll also shows a marked improvement for the government on its response to fuel prices, with 31% now satisfied, up from 17% in last month’s poll, and 47% dissatisfied, down from 59%. Thirty-three per cent said they were satisfied with the government’s response to the Iran war, up three, with dissatisfaction at 37%, up four. The government’s announcement of cuts to the NDIS had 47% supportive and 25% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware and 31% not aware. Considerable further detail should follow reasonably shortly on the pollster’s website.
A draft prediction of VIC based on vibes and what little knowledge I have rn. It does underestimate ONP a bit, mainly because I’m expecting Labor to drop out of the 2pp in Bass, Pakenham and Hastings, allowing the Liberals to win off Labor preferences. I’m also on the fence on whether Eureka, Melton, Sydenham and Sunbury will be ONP or Coalition gains.
Furthermore I’m uncertain about the fates of Morwell (NAT v ONP), Narracan (LIB v ONP), South Barwon, Bellarine (assuming ONP preferences flow to LIB will help them), Macedon, Bentleigh, Clarinda, Ashwood and Box Hill (I think the Chinese vote will align more with ALP over Coalition), Werribee (WEST v ALP), Preston (GRN v ALP) and Pascoe Vale (GRN v ALP).
https://yapms.com/app?m=kumj19ley6hvmaa
Since we’re doing ‘who covers whom more’, I asked AI.
Q: Which receives more coverage: Australian elections in Indian media, or Indian elections in Australian media?
Sorry, Ven. Australia pays more attention to India than vice versa.
Appreciate your acknowledgement and apology Arky, it was more than I was expecting.
Will the evolution of Labor’s left from firebrands to centrists define Albanese’s leadership?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/04/australia-labor-party-left-centrists-albanese-leadership
““The left parliamentary caucus used to reflect the views of the progressive rank-and-file; they acted as the party’s conscience,” Cameron said in the 2025 Carmichael Lecture, an annual oration given in honour of the trade unionist Laurie Carmichael. “Those days seem to be long gone.”
:::
Labor’s own constitution describes it as a democratic socialist party. So why is it so centrist?
:::
What emerges is a picture of a political grouping that no longer acts as an insurgent force within Labor, which believes that changing the country is achieved not through a Gough Whitlam-style rush to reform but patient, incremental progress.
:::
More than 95 local Labor member groups – including branches and state and federal electorate councils – have passed anti-Aukus motions, while motions condemning the US and Israel’s war in Iran have been endorsed by two dozen.
Debate is expected on both in the lead-up to the party’s national conference in Adelaide in July, as is the push for a 25% gas export tax – a policy supported in the Labor movement but so far resisted by the Albanese government.”
Thanks Diog.
The changes to the Cheaper Home Batteries program, which started this month, seems to have caused a rush on large batteries and also bigger solar systems to fill them up:
https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2026/05/05/rooftop-solar-surges-to-new-high-on-back-of-battery-boom/
Albanese won’t bring in a gas export tax next week – but he’ll struggle to hold off pressure forever
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/04/albanese-gas-export-tax-asia-energy-trades-fuel-crisis
“Albanese might be able to dismiss Pocock and others campaigning for a gas tax as “populists”.
But can he reasonably attach the same label to the AMWU, or their peak body, the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU)?
:::
“The union movement’s longstanding position is that multinationals should pay their fair share of tax, and that includes the biggest gas companies,” the ACTU president, Michele O’Neil, told Guardian Australia.
“Our current tax system disproportionately benefits professional landlords and multinational companies at the expense of working people, and that needs to change.””
WeWantPaulsays:
Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 6:04 pm
Appreciate your acknowledgement and apology Arky, it was more than I was expecting.
=====================================
Did I miss something or is this sarcasm?
Australia’s frighteningly unequal funding system favours private schools, argues Jane Caro. How can we fix it?
https://theconversation.com/australias-frighteningly-unequal-funding-system-favours-private-schools-argues-jane-caro-how-can-we-fix-it-280570
“Australia’s schooling system is among the most highly segregated in the OECD. Public schools educate the majority of disadvantaged students, while there is concentrated advantage in private schools.
This situation can be attributed, in large part, to our school funding arrangements. Recent research from the Australian Education Union shows “over half of Australia’s private schools now receive more combined government funding per student from both the federal and state governments, than similar public schools”.”
The Albanese government will slash decades-old $30 billion plans to build an Inland Rail running from Victoria to Queensland through regional NSW.
The Australian understands plans to build the new freight corridor across its entire proposed length of 1600km will be dumped ahead of the budget. The government’s revamped plans means priority will be given to finishing the line from Beveridge in Victoria, to Parkes in central-west NSW, which will enable double-stacked freight trains to run to Parkes and then west to Perth.
The government won’t proceed with funding the rail north of Parkes, where it was slated to go through Gilgandra, Narrabri and North Star, eventually linking to a port in Brisbane.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/inland-rail-albanese-government-slashes-30bn-plan-for-queensland-line/news-story/f20b24f2b66c11b579ae5677b9ca325b?amp
HH,
Thanks very much for your international round-up each morning, and your snippets of news during the day. They are very much appreciated.
https://yapms.com/app?m=ht0yvje4mewrz5i
Here’s a 2028 Federal Election forecast map that I made based on if Milthorpe wins the Farrer by-election, and if Labor’s primary vote gets worse and One Nation’s vote holds up. (It may or may not).
Labor’s Penny Sharpe suspended from upper house for a week
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-s-penny-sharpe-suspended-from-upper-house-for-a-week-20260505-p5ztz5.html
“The Minns government has been dealt a severe blow after its most senior upper house member was suspended from parliament for seven days for failing to produce documents relating to a decade-old allegation of sexual harassment against the former NSW Labor general secretary Jamie Clements which he denied.”
It’s funny people who want indigenous children refused bail, locked up for years before trial and where they will gladly lock up a 10 year old murderer for 90 years on a whole life order if his skin is black, suddenly want someone out on bail for murder & war crimes because it’s someone their political bosses are supporting and he’s white.
Beats me. I’m guessing sarcasm.
That was me being nice, because usually if I said you’re indulging anti Jewish conspiracy theories the refrain is “no, I’m anti Israel not anti Jewish!” and we would get bogged down there. But if you’re going to be open about it, then I don’t need to be nice about it. You’re indulging anti Jewish conspiracy theories and you should reflect on that.
What a beat up. The Liberals carrying water for Mark Latham’s delusions. Sickening.
@Holdenhillbilly
I am completely unshocked.
It will never be built. But it’s probably not the last time someone will promise it.
Defining the intifada and testing Australia’s racial hate laws
https://www.smh.com.au/national/defining-the-intifada-and-testing-australia-s-racial-hate-laws-20260505-p5ztww.html
“What the word intifada means to Australian Jews and whether it offends will determine the outcome of a landmark case against two Sydney academics for their social media posts about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Federal Court heard on Tuesday.
Dr Nick Riemer, a linguistics expert, and Professor John Keane, a political scientist, are being sued over a series of posts to X, formerly Twitter, in a case that will test the nation’s hate speech laws.
The duo maintain that they were criticising Zionism, which they purport is not antisemitic.”
Definitely sarcasm.
Rahter than apologise your last post Arky implies I made comments about a religious legal tiered system, and I believe my only comment was about bail and murder, which clearly did not involve the religious dichotomy at all.
The foundation for my claim being well evidenced in criminology.
Although I will observe the NSW police are arresting, putting on really ridiculously strict bail conditions, people who wear t-shirts that might upset strong supporters of Israel while at the same time dual Australian Israeli citizens could go to Israel do national service and literally use children for target practice and come home without much fear at all of the prosecution and life without parole such a person richly deserves.
“The Minns government has been dealt a severe blow after its most senior upper house member was suspended from parliament for seven days”
I know nothing about the situation and I’d still bet someone being suspended from Parliament for 7 days is not a severe blow to anybody.
All parties except a couple of regional parties like Shiv sena are or to the left of Liberal wets.
The main party of India, BJP, occupies broad spectrum of Liberal wets ALP right wing, centre and centre-left.
The second largest party, Congress, now is to the space of Greens on some matter (atleast Australian Greens have some principles and Congress almost none), Australian socialist and incorporated a lot of Communists ideology. Every other, which includes a lot of regional parties, party is further left to Congress.
Modi has adapted a lot of policies of Left, right an Centre when compared with Western democracies.
His government has stream lined benefits to the poor by paying their benefits to their bank accounts.
Public sector banks, which were huge loss making enterprises, before he became very profitable now. Indian government spends a substantial portion on defence of country.
I think Indian debt ratio to GDP is around 66%, which is thus for a long time. Modi government implemented GST across all items at varying rates.
India has fastest growing economy in the world.
Currently, Modi is the most popular leader in the world with a net positive rating of around 40% as per leadership of world leaders ratings polled by Morning Consult
@WWP – I didn’t say a thing about religion in the handful of words I addressed to you, and the rest was clearly tagged as addressed to Entropy. If you’re so vain you have taken my entire post as about you anyway that’s your problem (and there’s a Carly Simon song you need to check out).
“It marks the third time Sharpe has been found in contempt by the chamber and suspended over the issue. She was suspended twice in March, including once for three days. It will leave the government a vote short in the upper house for the week, and Sharpe accused Latham, the opposition and the Greens of risking the delay of “critical bills” including changes to hate speech laws.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-s-penny-sharpe-suspended-from-upper-house-for-a-week-20260505-p5ztz5.html
@Ven at 6:44pm
Okay, I guess that checks out. The most I know about Indian politics is that during the Cold War they tended to have to straddle between the USA/NATO and USSR for trade and technology so it’d make sense that some Communist traditions remain with some of them.
Thanks for your knowledge.
In the one post you referred to me and your religious stuff without distinguishing.
I couldn’t careless what you meant but an intelligent person reading your post could easily have drawn the wrong conclusion.
But don’t worry about it I’m.done. Have a great evening.
Have to give Labor credit, subject to the final policy changes, for tackling capital gains, negative gearing and trust changes. They seem to be doing this in a sensible manner unlike the proposed changes in 2019. I’m looking forward to what will be the actual policies changes particularly those in relation to trusts, any grandfathering provisions and any limits.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/05/politics/trump-approval-rating-analysis-vis
It’s doubtful that Trump really cares about his burgeoning unpopularity. He’s got the job until noon on January 20, 2029. He’ll most likely lose the House, and there’s an outside chance of losing the Senate, too. But the midterms have nearly always been a referendum on the incumbent president. Yet he will still have the power of veto and can issue Executive & Regulatory orders that don’t require congressional approval.
Obama faced a hostile Congress after the 2014 election but still managed to govern, albeit with difficulty.
Trump has never given a rat’s arse about the GOP: he’s just used it as a vehicle to gain power & increase his wealth. Many of those who have followed him to the precipice will likely rue the day they jumped aboard the Trump Express, including a majority of US Supreme Court judges, who have caused great reputational harm to this once-admired court. And if US service men and women are killed as a result of his very ill-advised war with Iran, he’ll surely be recorded in history as the worst president since the US came of age.
David
They would possibly get more credit if they went to the election with the platform rather than saying they wouldn’t change it.
From Gemini AI, on the prospects of a Farage Reform government in the UK being pro-Russia or anti-Ukraine:
Food for thought – for Putin. Europe – left, centre and right – can still fight back against his malign influence.
AI Slop.
Farage will support whoever pays him the most money.
Unfortunately after October 7 , 2023, Israeli people massacre, when Biden went to Israel to console Jewish people and said “we are all Zionists now”, the Global left suddenly went silent on criticising Zionism in the process equating and acquiescenced criticism of Zionism to anti-Semitism. They were reluctant to criticise Biden definition of Zionism partly because POTUS elections are round the corner and partly they considered him to be leader of Global left.
Netanyahu gladly grabbed that opportunity, rammed home the advantage and grounded Gaza to dust and went to war with Iran.
GOW – not barracking for Farage there, but just saying that, at the end of the day, he is trying to win power in the UK, and that requires a very different attitude towards Ukraine and Russia than what you need in Hungary or such places.
View from The Hill: the art of political spin – defending a broken promise as ‘building trust’
https://www.nationaltribune.com.au/view-from-the-hill-the-art-of-political-spin-defending-a-broken-promise-as-building-trust/
Arkysays:
Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 6:35 pm
Did I miss something or is this sarcasm?
Beats me. I’m guessing sarcasm.
========================================
. My claim was the justice system in both Australia and UK would give better treatment of Jewish people (also Anglo people) than it gives to Moslem victims of crime.
Show me the post where I even mention Israel.
———————————————-
That was me being nice, because usually if I said you’re indulging anti Jewish conspiracy theories the refrain is “no, I’m anti Israel not anti Jewish!” and we would get bogged down there. But if you’re going to be open about it, then I don’t need to be nice about it. You’re indulging anti Jewish conspiracy theories and you should reflect on that.
==============================================
So it is an anti-Jewish conspiracy theory to suggest that the justice system discriminates more against Muslims than Jewish people?
Also just saying it is a terrible slur against our justice system?
Yet it is also perfectly all right for Jewish people to complain the justice system is failing them, which some at the RC seem to have expressed?
Yet if you claim it is failing Muslim people even worse, then that would be both an anti-Jewish conspiracy and a slur against that same system?
That is a lot of hypocrisy to take in but I think I’ve probably covered it all.
Well there’s always the possible (or IMO likely) case that Farage is lying and will immediately turn over the UK to Putin’s interests once he has the power to do so.
As we can see right now, roughly 2/3rds of the UK’s voters hate what Keir Starmer is doing right now, but they can’t stop him from being a worthless piece of waste for the next 3 years.
So what happens in 2029 when Farage wins a majority and he cheerfully allies the UK with the global fascist cabal? Nothing can be done until 2034.
Kirsdarkesays:
So what happens in 2029 when Farage wins a majority and he cheerfully allies the UK with the global fascist cabal? Nothing can be done until 2034.
_________________
Then the King exercises his reserve powers and removes him. The armed forces will never betray the monarch.
Diogenessays:
Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 7:04 pm
David
They would possibly get more credit if they went to the election with the platform rather than saying they wouldn’t change it.
_______________________
Too right.
@Nath
The armed forces may not, but the press can and will.
Have you watched the House of Cards miniseries “To Play The King”? Francis Urquhart did exactly that, forced the King to abdicate after opposing him politically and made sure his son and heir knew who held real power there.
If it comes down to a showdown between King Charles and Nigel Farage, I reckon the press would side with Farage.
Diogenessays:
Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 7:04 pm
David
They would possibly get more credit if they went to the election with the platform rather than saying they wouldn’t change it.
==============================================
If you don’t like what they are doing. I’m pretty sure a LNP/ON coalition Government will unwind those changes if you want to vote them in.
If it comes down to a showdown between King Charles and Nigel Farage, I reckon the press would side with Farage.
___________________________
The Grenadier Guards should sort them out.
Curtin’s Cast podcast…
https://youtu.be/K3oBblDPkOo?si=xSVgLhkFzvq-mdKl
It might be time for Charles to bring back the Star Chamber.
If this is right then the US side is offering to get ships out… but not necessarily back in.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/04/strait-of-hormuz-donald-trump-us-navy-iran-shipping
Douglas and Milko (assuming that is your real name) @ 6:24p
They are good but they’re not the real deal
pp, your Uncle Phil says:
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/hanson-s-support-for-trump-a-drag-on-one-nation-vote-poll-20260505-p5ztuj or https://archive.is/QZJ0h
Sprocket
I’m listening to the podcast you linked.
I’ve been saying for ages that Pauline Hanson is a trump grifter and a Gina Reinhart groupie who recently gifted her a plane.
I am confident that Hanson and One Nation will be a fizzer at the next federal election.
Bludgeoned Westie,
Labor’s demise in the outer north western suburbs have been long predicted and fairly short on any evidence beyond vibes. The Liberals campaign is already off to a rough start by promising to cut services on the overcrowded Melton and Wyndham Vale lines to run more/longer trains to Warrnambool and their genius move in the federal election to cut scope of the upgrades to Sunshine station in favour of electrifying to Baxter (i.e., nowhere). Labor have it’s weaknesses in the west and the Liberals are chronically unwilling to suggest anything meaningful to address them.
I’d be particularly sceptical of Melton given the commissioning of major infrastructure there and it’s demographic makeup, along with Sydenham and Kororoit, being particularly unfriendly to the brands of politics the Liberals and One Nation are going for. Maybe an independent/west party, but they also have a history of seriously underperforming the media hype.
Six Greens also seems optimistic given they don’t seem to have benefited at Labor’s expense in the polling, and it being very difficult to seriously put forward the argument Footscray has been “neglected” by the Government. The perennial failure to make ground in Northcote is also worth noting, but maybe generalised discontent around planning reforms might bite Labor.
That said, based on the polling we have it is quite challenging to see how things will play out. Labor have not got any of their hoped kudos over the completion of the Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel, nor their various cost-of-living measures. I do hear them discussed anecdotally. I’ve never heard it clearly articulated what their problem is with Allan but she is undoubtedly unpopular, while removing her also faces the risk of being a major strategic error on the scale of every other time a party has tried the same thing and still lost.
It’s also hard to say how people will respond during as an election nears. Wilson doesn’t have much to say beyond 3AW talking points at the moment while indulging in the usual “we’ll axe this because it’s a Labor policy” without much further thought to it, and One Nations presence is largely media driven over anything they’re actually contributing to the discussion, in addition to their primary policy focus not being something the state government has any influence over. We live in interesting times, hey.
@SL at 8:10pm
Interesting set of numbers there.
Trump will likely still be President at the time of the next Australian election, and I doubt things would be better for him with Australian voters at that time.
Why a significant number of Albertans (over 300k have appended their signature to a petition) want to separate from Canada:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/alberta-separatism-would-harm-both-canada-and-united-states
The population of the province of Alberta is around 4.2m.