Two new federal poll results:
• The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group poll that finds the Coalition recovering from what was perhaps a too-bad-to-be-true result last month, with Labor down a point to 31%, the Coalition up five to 22%, One Nation down two to 27% and the Greens steady on 13%. Two-party preferred measures have Labor leading the Coalition by 54-46 and One Nation by 55-45 (in each case compared with 53-47 last time). A three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese at 33%, Pauline Hanson at 23% and Angus Taylor floundering at 14%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are improved by five points in net terms, with his approval rating at 34% and disapproval at 43%. Angus Taylor is up one to minus two, Pauline Hanson down two to minus one, Matt Canavan up one to minus two, Larissa Waters down two to minus four, Chris Bowen down two to minus 16, and Donald Trump down three to minus 58. The poll was conducted last Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1014.
• The Sunday News Corp papers had a Freshwater Strategy poll with Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 23%, One Nation on 25% and the Greens on 12% — numbers identical to the last such poll a month ago. Anthony Albanese leads Angus Taylor by 44-38 on preferred prime minister. Net approval ratings are plus 10 for Angus Taylor, plus four for Matt Canavan, plus five for Pauline Hanson (down five), and minus nine for Albanese. The poll found 30% would be more likely and 24% less likely to vote One Nation if it entered a coalition with the Liberals and Nationals, while 34% would be more likely and 27% less likely to vote for the Liberals or Nationals. The poll also shows a marked improvement for the government on its response to fuel prices, with 31% now satisfied, up from 17% in last month’s poll, and 47% dissatisfied, down from 59%. Thirty-three per cent said they were satisfied with the government’s response to the Iran war, up three, with dissatisfaction at 37%, up four. The government’s announcement of cuts to the NDIS had 47% supportive and 25% opposed, with 63% saying they were aware and 31% not aware. Considerable further detail should follow reasonably shortly on the pollster’s website.
One of the interesting things with the polls at the moment is Albanese winning on preferred PM measure but coming last on netsat (except for Trump). I guess the person at the top cops the blame for the general dissatisfaction in the electorate with the state of things, but that doesn’t mean it would elect Hanson or Taylor.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Ukraine hits key Russian oil-loading port and 3 ‘shadow fleet’ tankers: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-drones-strike-attack-oil-port-b686081ec3f3a9da07d380413067cfd6
Peru opens human trafficking probe over citizens lured to fight in Russian army: https://tvpworld.com/93051990/peru-opens-trafficking-probe-over-citizens-recruited-to-fight-for-russia
Israel approves purchase from US of 2 more squadrons of F-35I and F-15IA fighter jets: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-approves-purchase-from-us-of-2-more-squadrons-of-f-35i-and-f-15ia-fighter-jets/
Israel delivers Tamir interceptors to US Marine Corps for MRIC program: https://breakingdefense.com/2026/05/israel-delivers-tamir-interceptors-to-us-marine-corps-for-mric-program/
Iran has proposed a 14-point plan to the US to end the war within 30 days: https://unn.ua/en/news/iran-has-proposed-a-14-point-plan-to-the-us-to-end-the-war-within-30-days
The Israeli municipality of West Jerusalem forced a Jerusalemite citizen on Sunday to demolish his own home in the East Jerusalem village of Umm Tuba under the pretext of building without an Israeli-issued permit: https://english.wafa.ps/Pages/Details/170059
Reform: We’ll put migrant detention centres in Green council areas: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/03/reform-put-migrant-detention-centres-green-council-areas/
The Supreme Court just made it easier for Republicans to win elections & there is no solution: https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/05/the-supreme-court-just-made-it-easier-for-republicans-to-win-elections-there-is-no-solution/
‘This is just disarray’: alarm inside Pentagon after Hegseth staff purges: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/03/pentagon-pete-hegseth-us-military
President Trump’s allies are growing alarmed that GOP Rep. Nancy Mace — who infuriated him by calling for the release of the Epstein files — will defy expectations and win the South Carolina governor’s race: https://www.axios.com/2026/05/02/trump-mace-governor-south-carolina
2 US service members missing after military exercises in Morocco: https://apnews.com/article/morocco-us-africom-african-lion-exercise-missing-733658c155ce6d64a740a2abb9e59e52
Interesting to see both polls have One Nation ahead of the LNP again, seems a fair bet that will be reinforced in Farrer on the weekend although the One Nation candidate doesn’t seem One Nation enough for many
Could we see a surprise result with either the Liberals or Nationals sneaking into the top 2? Unlikely imo. Most voters won’t be following things too closely and will vote for the party rather than the candidate. This is their chance to the Libs and Nats a message. Labor dodges that bullet by not running
Either way, hopefully Milthorpe manages to get over the line
Same-same.
I take it that these are percentages of all voters? The numbers I’d want to compare if I was advising either of these parties aren’t these, but rather:
% of all voters who are ‘ON voters and less likely’ versus % of all voters who are ‘all other voters and more likely’;
% of all voters who are ‘Coalition voters and less likely’ versus % of all voters who are ‘all other voters and more likely’.
HH DP
Not acceptable: Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to end war, says he’s not satisfied
Donald Trump rejected Iran’s 14-point peace proposal after reviewing its terms. Iran, for its part, has confirmed it received a US response via Pakistan and is reviewing it.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-rejects-iran-14-point-peace-proposal-to-end-war-says-hes-not-satisfied-2906025-2026-05-04
Trump unveils Project Freedom to escort stranded ships through Hormuz
Donald Trump said the US will escort foreign ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom. He described the move as humanitarian but warned against interference as talks with Iran continue.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/strait-of-hormuz-stranded-ships-trump-project-freedom-2906029-2026-05-04
Russia continues its ongoing, four-years-long campaign to kill every Ukrainian civilian it can reach:
“Russian strikes kill 10 as Zelensky says Ukraine hits oil tankers and terminal”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyp41v1n1go
“Russian attacks kill 10, injure over 70 in Ukraine over past day”
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-8-injure-71-in-ukraine-over-past-day/
Losing!
Because world has to pay much higher price to buy that oil.
But will they act to impeach the traitorous Putin agent occupying the Oval Office?
“Germany troop cuts send wrong signal to Russia, say two top US Republicans”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cewpx5yvwyxo
I would prefer “further east” meant Ukraine, but “Poland and the Baltics” would be better than ceding the field to Russia.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/05/03/trump-iran-strait-hormuz/
Just in time for the opening of the stock market! Someone or someones in the administration must be making a killing off of Trump’s well-timed announcements.
Sadly the West unlike Trump neglected fossil fuels for renewables .
Example Australia after 4 long years labor now is begging for fuel and also driven electricity prices on average up Massively.No gas tax either as that will upset our fuel supplying neighbours.
Losing.
Trump is going for regime change in Iran he knows the regime will never agree to no nuke formation.Hes going for payback as he should after 45 years of Irans war on the West etc.
Winning!
Labor to give young people ‘a fair crack’ in budget.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says young people should be given a “fair crack” at buying their own home amid growing expectations Labor will pare back tax perks for property investors.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers will hand down his fourth federal budget on May 12, with the government poised to break its election promise that negative gearing was “off the table”.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/2026/05/04/budget-tax-changes?
Expectations building that there will be some decent reforms in the budget but it’s sad that we already know that the biggest saving will come from slashing the NDIS and that gas companies have dodged extra tax
In the meantime Minns is dragging the chain re renewables and promising new gas. Is he actually a Labor Premier?
Back to work Monday, enjoy your day
If only Howard, Australia’s worst ever prime minister, had started the complete decarbonization of the Australian economy…
Are the Teals and the Greens being cooked by the Cookers?
… and now, entering stage rabid right… we have Trump the Humanitarian.
Six months out from November’s midterm US elections, Donald Trump’s disapproval rating has reached 62% – the worst of his two terms in office – according to a new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
The US president received his worst ratings on the cost of living and other economic issues since launching his deeply unpopular war against Iran in February, which has plunged the global economy into an oil crisis and sent gas prices rocketing to a four-year high.
Trump achieved majority disapproval on his management of every issue measured, including Americans disapproved of his handling of that war by 66% to 32%, while a staggering 76% disapproved and only 23% approved of his handling of the cost of living. Two-thirds of Americans now feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/03/trump-disapproval-rating-poll
Does the worlds most putrid pustule care about his ratings? Not really, all he obsesses about is being worshipped, loved, adored and being boot licked by every world leader and, well basically, the entire population of the planet (even dog almighty should be bowing and scraping to him). Oh yes, and all the untold millions of dollars the Trumpafia family can get their mitts on.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/03/trump-disapproval-rating-poll
I imagine the repug book of fantasy reasons will be getting a good work out at the moment.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/03/james-comey-indictment-instagram-post-seashells
When/if Trump tries to break Iran’s blockade then Iran will be forced to respond militarily… or lose the war…
… I don’t know where the latest ship attack by Iran sits in the timeframe of when.if Trump’s humanitarian phase becomes operational.
The current phase involves both Iran and the US using force to enforce their own blockades. Neither side has thus far used force to try to break the other side’s blockade.
The Trump’s announcement, if followed up by action, is therefore an escalation. Iran has thus far met every US escalation with an Iranian escalation.
Trump can slow down the inevitable by paying off offshore wind developers and ordering coal power stations to stay online, but he’s fighting a losing battle with economics:
Note, almost all of the growth came from renewables and the main reason that coal grew was because Trump made gas expensive.
However, there is one area that Trump is winning!
Despite the worst effort of the Horseshoe of Slaggers, it should by now be obvious to every Australian voter that Albanese is a safe pair of hands during a crisis.
The dubious analysis of market economists always disturbs me:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/04/rba-interest-rates-cash-rate-hike-predicted-reserve-bank-australia-inflation
Core inflation lifted to 3.3% in December on the back of some washed out cricket matches and has stayed there since (Remember, the RBA focuses on the Trimmed Mean. right? LOL!). And there has already been 2 hikes and we are in the middle of an oil shock which have historically been deflationary.
Yet by not moving this week, the RBA would apparently be “doing nothing”….
A couple of months ago I spent some time in what might be called a traditional Victorian rural town. From its beginnings, its prosperity came from service delivery to several industries: gold, wool, timber and beef with a smidge of tourism.
The gold is long gone. The timber mill has shut. The last contractors have been paid out following the closure of Victoria’s native forestry. Regional governance and delivery mechanisms – along with the jobs – have shifted to competing towns.
Real farmers, as opposed to the Toorak Tractor Melbourne mob of weekend pretend farmers, are struggling with amped up capital costs for land, dwindling irrigation water supply, increased input costs and increased restrictions on managing ferals and destructive natives. Wombats, Eastern Grey Kangaroos, several species of deer, feral pigs and wild dogs are all increasing in numbers and impact. And that is before they have to deal with the ever-increasing array of agricultural weeds.
The main street is gap-toothed with empty shop fronts. The population is ageing. It has below average education and below average income. School student numbers are in a declining trend.
In one of the empty shop fronts there were posters exhorting locals to sign the petition against a solar farm proposal.
This echoes local efforts a few years ago by some NIMBY locals to drive out one of the world’s leading Wagyu breeders.
Tragic, IMO.
This is the sort of economic and social inward and downward spiral that ON feeds on. The core of it is that ON energy policy fly in the face of economic reality.
ON supporters are both their own victims and and their own perpetrators.
Real farmers, as opposed to the Toorak Tractor Melbourne mob of weekend pretend farmers.
——————————————–
Dont forget the other type of farmer – big, cut-throat, buying out failed farms at nicks, modern fully automated equipment, successful, speculator. They come in two company sizes – multinational and local lads made good. Neither give a fig for the regions unless it benefits the profit margin.
A farmer bought a property nearby for 3mill and is spending another mill on it. Doesn’t even live there – one of his kids does. Another farmer, a client, is still slowly paying off my heavily discounted invoice of $10k after 6 years. He lost everything (including his wife) but getting back on his feet with the one small acreage he still owns.
TK
Yep.
The unequal competition between mum and dad farmers and corporations which can tax shift is part of what is killing the warp and weft of rural and regional economies/communities.
That said, the vast majority of really productive rural economies work off the profit motive.
I would say that government assistance (financial, advisory etc) has greatly helped this client of mine. The hypocrisy of the RW agrarian socialists knows no bounds.
That said, the vast majority of really productive rural economies work off the profit motive.
——————————————————
There is profit motive and pure nasty bastardry. It is dog eat dog in some of the regions I work in. And that is before you include the multinationals.
Another interesting Tweet from this Evan poster
—————-
EvanWritesOnX
After looking closely at market responses to UAE’s OPEC exit,
I can comfortably make the prediction that when OPEC ceases to exist,
a new cartel is going to form between KSA, UAE, and other regional oil producers.
This cartel will establish on the basis of achieving what OPEC was meant to set out to achieve for the Middle East,
before it got hijacked and co-opted by the West.
It will very likely be formed in coordination with BRICS, or the very least,
China.
This is coming.
I said back in January that the KSA had already written OPEC off as irrelevant.
Like clockwork, everything remains on track.
There’s no rift between UAE and KSA.
They’re coordinating more than ever.
And it’s slowly killing off the US.
And there’s nothing they can do about it.
Because the capital allocators want the same thing.
Haha. It is the reason why ON is vitriolic on government spending except when it comes to spending on health…
Surely fuel price hikes have already done what an interest rate rise would do. The latter seems superfluous, especially given that we are almost certainly heading into a serious recession.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/desperate-leadership-moves-raise-stakes-for-starmer-farage-in-uk-elections-20260503-p5zt6o.html
Starmer’s on the nose, but Farage is too. This could be interpreted as if Labour were to find a more palatable leader, its stocks might rise. Perhaps a new leader should promise Starmer a seat in the Lords.
Seeing the Greens and their supporters deathride the privatised, profit driven NDIS is fascinating, but ultimately an act of self-sabotage.
Im guessing they are gunning for a 3 per cent of GDP deficit outlook at the next election costing.
https://www.pbo.gov.au/elections/2025-general-election/2025-election-commitments-report
Morning all. Thanks for the International roundup HH. As Boerwar said, any attempt to get civilian shipping through the SOH, even with USN escort, will reveal the truth about whether Iran can continue the war.
If USA has depleted or destroyed Iran’s weapon stocks then it could work. If not some ships are going to get sunk. Aussie defense economist Perun dealt with this in his usual well informed style in his video last night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlVENOEZlyk&dp_isNewTab=0&dp_referrer=youtubeOverlay&dp_allowFirstVideo=0
Meantime Japanese PM Takaichi is meeting our hard working PM. It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall.
PP delights in the killing of innocent brown people. What Trump doing is
Murdering!
Is there no sherrick of humanity in Trump lickspittles?
pied pipersays:
Monday, May 4, 2026 at 4:18 am
The educated left so called have been shown to be morally bankrupt
==========================================
At least nobody can accuse you of being left or educated. A fully card holding member of the moronic right, where stupidity is seen as a badge of honour.
Are we lucky Albanese and his government are in power instead of Trump lickspittles like Dutton, Hanson, Taylor?
The most infuriating thing about the regions is that the less profitable land (even the borderline profitable) is all still needed to meet the needs of the humans on the planet. As such, the farming sector is ripe for either centralised government control or massive corporations – both with an understanding that they need to keep these less profitable areas cropped/stocked. The people who run the farms do the same work – and should be paid the same (less profitable farmers probably work much harder). You shouldn’t be getting squillions just because you are in a region that has better soil and weather.
We talk about efficiency through competition – and yes, many old school mum/dad farmers are going out of business for this reason, but some farmers are on needed farms battling harsher conditions (lower production etc). They dont struggle because they are inefficient. They struggle because they cant hedge like a big company with farms scattered across the continent and they cant easily invest like a large company.
Yet, in the US, we have seen how bad things can get under a multinational farm ownership system, locally run by mum/dad farmers.
No, no, I am not saying we look at Collectivisation. But I do wonder about the loss of the Cooperatives.
Gemma 4 can be ran on your hardware. You are not forced to run on a data center.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXgZhGzqPmU
On the lead in polls, the Greens treading water suggests they are making some wrong choices. It really is curious that the Greens argued so hard to retain the NDIS as is. It seems to be based on the self interest of their leaders rather than the interests of their mostly young voters who will be paying back the debt.
As Bizzcan points out, an unreformed NDIS has large budget implications- bigger than AUKUS. Where is the Greens plan to pay for retaining the NDIS? Dumping AUKUS is not enough.
The Vast Thwaites Glacier is melting… we’re rooned…
“This summer, the vast Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica had so much meltwater running down its face, it looked like it was weeping.
Dr Yixi Zheng, a climate scientist at the British Antarctic Survey, describes standing on board the South Korean icebreaker Araon in the Amundsen Sea, looking at the Thwaites ice shelf towering 40 metres above her.
“It’s like a 10-floor building in front of you, and it is melting so fast the water is dripping fast down – between dripping and a waterfall,” Zheng says.”
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/a-crying-glacier-and-a-shivering-ice-shelf-a-beautiful-tragic-story-20260428-p5zroz.html
I agree that Trump doesn’t care about opinion polls or ratings anymore. He only care about himself. His family is making tonnes of money by uttering proximity to him.
I am not saying there was no corruption in US earlier and quite a few Democrats and Republicans indulged in corruption. But it was all mostly hush hush. But Trump and his regime corruption is conducted in open as if mock Democrats.
And SCOTUS is responsible for this by giving him complete immunity from law for all his actions in power.
TK
Interesting thoughts on farming today…with a Superfine Wool background where I grew up, it was an industry based on poor pastures/soils that was always borderline exploitation leading to overgrazing , erosion and nutrient depletion despite superphosphate being sucked out of Naru.
Deforested hills with erosion are commonplace along with severe gully erosion is endemic.
Older farmers have told me wind farms are a boon because they allow lower stocking rates and steady income yet there is active push- back from those who I suspect don’t have the hills (poorer country) yet those who are complaining probably own most of the better country and want the poor buggers on shitty land to think of them and the ( imaginary) land devaluation of their properties due to renewables.
Yep the Jap prime minister will ask the appeasing labor Aussie prime minister why is he a sellout for the human rights abusing west hating Chinese.
Farming regions are supposed to be doing well because Labor sold out to China but the Labor luvvies on here claim they are broke.Make ya minds up.
Btw playing the race card the last refuge of leftie scroundrels.
Alarmingly it looks like the Aus and USA markets have decoupled another loss predicted today in Aus the ninth in past ten days meanwhile in progrowth USA they boom.
Breaking news -Glaciers melt.
Maybe Greens political party, its leaders and members think that money grows on trees or running up huge trillions of dollars of debt and deficit is okay.
Even when Labor did not contest in by-elections, Greens PV did not go up. That means progressive voters, who vote for Labor don’t trust Greens.
RQ, overgrazing can come from desperation or short term greed or simply poor management. You would think a little regulation could sort that out but we know how farmers love regulations like that.
There was a government funded program called paddock trees where an NGO tendered and won to plant Adelaide Hills redgums (etc) in paddocks where the existing old trees were dying and stock were eating the seedlings. They planted and protected and watered and returned to maintain and rewater these plants. Great program. Many farmers saw the benefit (stock need shade and they likes the trees and the birds the trees homed) and joined in. It was free, after all.
Some said ‘no way are we letting greenies onto our farms, f the trees’.
It’s becoming more and more obvious the Coalition made a dreadful error electing Angus Taylor. Those RedBridge 3-way leadership numbers are completely dreadful.
The leggo videos have now been picked up by the USA utube makers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ugn9NzPELDQ
Gas consumers in Albany, WA are furious they ill be forced onto a cheaper power source. They cite high conversion costs from gas to electric.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-04/gas-decommissioning-atco-australia-high-cost-albany-businesses/106635912
Really? Will there be no savings compared to constantly getting bottled gas delivered? Is it really $150k to $300K to convert a restaurant to electric??
Sounds more like struggling businesses have an idea for demanding compo from government.
I wonder how many of these struggling “small business owners” are Liberal/ON voters?
So the latest Trump plan to get ships out of the Persian Gulf, “Project Freedom”, is to escort merchant ships out. But without using naval ships. So it is effectively giving the Ships a path and saying “good luck”. It fooled the markets early on, but as the details have become known Oil has started heading north.
Meanwhile, several ships have been attacked in last hour or so.