YouGov: Labor 30, One Nation 26, Coalition 19, Greens 13 (open thread)

Separate polls find the Coalition and Labor primary votes at new depths, plus a Farrer by-election poll suggesting a race between One Nation and an independent.

The fortnightly YouGov Sky News Pulse poll has what might be the most dispiriting poll result yet for the Coalition, showing them running a distant third behind One Nation even after the leadership change intended to staunch the flow. The Coalition is down three points on last fortnight to 19%, matching their worst result under Sussan Ley the fortnight before, while One Nation is at 26%, up two from last fortnight though still down two on the fortnight before. Labor is up a point to 30% and the Greens are steady on 13%. A Labor-versus-Coalition two-party preferred reading has Labor leading 55-45, out from 53-47 a fortnight ago.

Angus Taylor’s personal ratings are nonetheless little changed on a fortnight ago, up one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 38%, while Anthony Albanese is down two to 38% and steady on 54%. Albanese’s lead on preferred prime minister is 45-33, out from 45-34. Asked how well Jim Chalmers’ policies had dealt with the cost of living, 16% responded very well or well compared with 53% for not very well or very badly and 31% for neither. The poll was conducted last Tuesday through to yesterday. The sample size is not provided, but would have been about 1500.

UPDATE: The sample size was 1425. Also included was a Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result, which also had Labor leading 55-45.

Also out yesterday was the weekly Roy Morgan poll, giving Labor its worst primary vote yet from this series at 26.5%. However, most of this seems to have been taken up by a three-point lift for the Greens to 14.5%. One Nation was up one-and-a-half to 23.5%, with the Coalition down one to 22.5%. Labor leads the Coalition 54.5-45.5 based on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 54-46, and 53-47 based on previous election preference flows, in from 53.5-46.5. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1532.

The first published poll for the Farrer by-election has emerged courtesy of progressive think tank the Australia Institute, conducted by uComms last Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1281. It featured questions inclusive of Labor and undecided component, and further questions asking how Labor voters would vote if there were no Labor candidate, as looks to be the case, and a forced response for the undecided. Working all these results together, I make it 31.6% for One Nation, 30.3% for independent Michelle Milthorpe, 22.0% for the Liberals, 7.6% for the Nationals and 5.8% for the Greens. Respondents were also asked who they would least like to win out of One Nation, Milthorpe, Liberal and the Nationals, with respective results of 37.1%, 29.5%, 22.2% and 11.2%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,943 thoughts on “YouGov: Labor 30, One Nation 26, Coalition 19, Greens 13 (open thread)”

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  1. Perhaps if we are not a free sovereign nation, and we have no choice but to support the war crimes of Israel and the USA, we should perhaps just say that out loud.

  2. Yes Bizz, why would the Iranians lash out at the Gulf States.

    “Looks at gulf states that enable us strikes from their airpsace, host US forces, or provide support to US forces”

    It is a mystery.

    Also would hardly say the Spanish frigate is what the yanks wanted from the Spanish, considering how they responded. And there is a world of difference between European states with existing relationships sending limited naval assets vs Australia sending cutting edge intelligence hardware to “supposedly” help the Gulf states, and not the yanks (the intelligence material in question designed to be utilised by US assets is just a coincidence”

  3. @WWP

    Yeah, we could do that and declare ourselves enemies of MAGA and let the Coalition rule the roost for another decade that’ll probably make our country as shitty as them anyway.

    Or we play the quiet long game, let MAGA burn itself out first, then hopefully make things better in the 2030’s.

    I really don’t like either option and I honestly wish deep down we could do something like that and be as audacious as Ireland or Spain in opposing Likud-MAGA, but we don’t have the geopolitical capability of doing that at the moment.

  4. And regarding Pine Gap, recognising it’s central role as the headquarters for the MJ12 and the Helios project … considering it’s a bit over 1000km further away from Tehran than Washington DC is, I’m a little sceptical as to its centrality to current affairs.

  5. I notice that PP avoids my question about One Nation abortion policy and its effect on the women’s vote.

    He/she also reckons that an interest rise will help One Nation. I’d bet London to a brick that PP can’t explain how a One Nation government would stop an interest rate rise while Hanson’s idol Chumpnis preventing the delivery of petroleum products from the Middle East.

  6. Miskal

    Perhaps read up on the difference between Shia and Sunni Islam, and which ME countries build mosques and run Madrassa in Indonesia.

    Only Pauline lumps all Muslims into one homogenous mass

  7. Apropos about nothing much:

    Is it possible to cancel the US midterms? Taking into account the US constitution and state laws?

    Short answer:
    No — under the United States Constitution it is not realistically possible to cancel U.S. midterm elections nationwide. The Constitution fixes when federal elections occur, and neither the president nor Congress has a straightforward legal power to cancel them.

    Below is the constitutional and legal reality.

    1. The Constitution requires regular congressional elections

    The Constitution mandates elections at fixed intervals.

    House of Representatives

    Under Article I, Section 2, members of the House are elected every two years.

    Senate

    Under Article I, Section 3, senators serve six-year terms, with one-third of the Senate elected every two years.

    These provisions effectively require midterm elections because they occur halfway through a presidential term.

    2. Congress sets the election date in federal law

    Federal law establishes a single nationwide election day:
    • 2 U.S.C. §7

    This law states that federal elections occur:

    “on the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November.”

    Changing or cancelling the election date nationwide would require Congress to pass new legislation.

    3. The president cannot cancel elections

    The U.S. president has no constitutional authority to cancel or postpone elections.

    Even in national emergencies or wartime:
    • elections have still occurred (e.g., during the American Civil War and World War II).

    Emergency powers do not override the constitutional election schedule.

    You’re welcome..

  8. One good thing to come out of Operation Epic Failure… Trump has guaranteed the GOP will endure a crushing defeat in the upcoming midterms… Even if the war ended right now, the economic reverberations of high inflation and low growth are set for the next 6 to 12 months. The American voter will hammer them for this economic betrayal. House of Reps certain to go to the Dems… Senate (not really a possibility 6 months ago) also a real chance to go to the Dems now…

  9. @Bizzcan at 5:54pm

    Pine Gap’s main advantage is that it’s attached to geo-stationary satellites that maintain their position within Earth’s planetary rotation at all times, so that it can cover the side of the world opposite of the USA, and also be too far inland for opposing naval forces to be in range of it.

    There’s pretty much no other location on Earth that’s friendly to the USA that can provide such a satellite communication base.

  10. The only legal way to eliminate midterms permanently would be:
    1. Pass a constitutional amendment.
    2. Ratify it by three-quarters of the states.

    This process is extremely difficult and historically rare.

    The structure of the U.S. Constitution was deliberately designed to prevent any government from cancelling congressional elections, making the midterm cycle one of the most legally entrenched parts of the U.S. political system.

    Even under extreme circumstances elections have still been held:
    • American Civil War – national elections continued
    • World War II – congressional elections still held
    • COVID‑19 pandemic – elections occurred with adjusted voting methods

    This historical precedent shows how strong the institutional pressure is to hold elections regardless of crisis.

    So please avoid random ‘Trump is planning to cancel the midterms’ commentary

  11. Kirs

    @WWP

    While admirable, that would have made the “more stronger PM” look weak when Trump’s USA would likely respond “Lol, go fuck yourself, Aussies, Pine Gap is ours.” and then work toward installing a conservative Coalition government that would thus be all-in on their Iran adventure.

    It’s happened before 😉

  12. First one to call bulltwang on the Resolve poll. Looking at the state breakdowns

    ALP
    NSW 27
    QLD 29

    PHON
    NSW 29
    QLD 24

    Q.E.D

  13. Watch labor on Tuesday create a couple of media diversions to distract from the interest rate rise.Just sayin…..
    Joyce is prominent in NSW media all one nation need is a competent lead candidate in each state…

    Bernadi had a good week cutting through in SA this week.Brand recognition.

  14. Resolve.. can’t even use one of several assumptions other pollsters do.

    This masthead has chosen not to publish the two-party-preferred vote between the Coalition and Labor because the huge surge in support for One Nation makes any preference vote potentially misleading.

    Only a seat-by-seat two-candidate-preferred vote count could indicate which seats One Nation could potentially win, given the party’s support is typically concentrated in a smaller group of seats than that of major parties.

  15. sprocket_

    I am aware of the many, many varieties of Islam.

    I am also noting that Indonesia, while predominately a different strain of the faith, has put forward support for peace in the region, as opposed to targeting the Iranians.

    And oh look, its the softening of the Labor vote to ON, as warned but mocked by quite a few people here.

    Whats that; a status quo centrist government boosted by a joke of an opposition now being seen to do little during cost of living concerns being vulnerable to populist sentiment?

    This rerun is getting boring.

  16. @sprocket

    Maybe, but US institutional guardrails are pretty brittle these days. MAGA pretends that January 6 never happened for instance. And while sometimes the Supreme Court goes against them, for the most part, they let Trump win.

    While I don’t think it’ll be enough for the Republicans to hold a majority in the House, I think they’ll hold the Senate in November with MAGA ratfucking.

  17. Meanwhile in F1 Oscar’s car is OUT: “We also identified an issue on Oscar’s car, which means we were unable to start the car from the grid. We have now returned the car to the garage to further investigate the issue there.”

  18. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/24/federal-green-light-bulldoze-tropical-savanna-northern-territory-threatened-species

    The environment minister, Murray Watt, has given the green light for the bulldozing of nearly 3,000 hectares of tropical savanna in the Northern Territory without an assessment under Australia’s nature laws.

    Top End Pastoral Company’s development would clear 2,723 hectares of woodland – an area 10 times the size of Sydney’s CBD – on Claravale farm and station in the Daly River region for crops, including sorghum and cotton.

    The region is home to threatened species such as the vulnerable ghost bat, Australia’s largest predatory bat.

    These being the laws and processes BW brags about all the time.

    When it comes to the environment, Labor is better then the Liberals because the Liberals are in hell, not because Labor gives a damn

  19. Meanwhile, we are watching les municipales in France.

    The booths have just opened for the first round.

    We have a particular interest in the results our little commune of Sainte-Foy. We have donated the use of our front room (former boutique) to the “Teal-like” candidate and his team, a few of them are friends of ours.

    They are running an a ticket of providing something for the young people of the town (among other things) who otherwise have idle hands. I was gobsmacked last year when the prefecture and the Gendarmerie tried to shut down the gaming cafe, on the grounds that it was attracting teenagers. And all they sold were snacks and soft drink.

    Said yoof we’re otherwise spending their nights in the parks drinking beer, smoking funny baccy and vandalising stuff!

    A couple of our friends are on the ticket.

  20. Miskal says:
    Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 6:16 pm
    sprocket_

    I am aware of the many, many varieties of Islam.

    I am also noting that Indonesia, while predominately a different strain of the faith, has put forward support for peace in the region, as opposed to targeting the Iranians.

    And oh look, its the softening of the Labor vote to ON, as warned but mocked by quite a few people here.

    Whats that; a status quo centrist government boosted by a joke of an opposition now being seen to do little during cost of living concerns being vulnerable to populist sentiment?

    This rerun is getting boring.

    _________

    The question is, do extreme left/right wingers chipping away at centrist governments make the government more or less resilient to popularism.

    Playa 😉

  21. One Nation is by far the biggest “do not change negative gearing/capital gains tax arrangements” cohort, so hardly the home for people who think Labor is not left enough on things like tax.

  22. “The question is, do extreme left/right wingers chipping away at centrist governments make the government more or less resilient to popularism.”

    I imagine the “chipping away” by left or right wingers could be countered by the government doing things.

    What big reforms is Labor doing? I mean the NACC used to be something bragged about but boy did that turn to shit quickly.

    The environmental reforms? Well they are hardly doing well.

    Housing? Foreign policy? Inflation?

    Where is Labors big ticket items these days.

    If people dont like the status quo, then parties supporting the status quo crash and burn.

    Simple as that

  23. I’m not saying Resolve’s findings are accurate – and state-based samples in federal polls should always be treated with a hefty grain of salt – but I see no reason to dismiss them either.

    It might seem incongruous at first that One Nation are doing better in NSW than in QLD and vice versa for Labor, but just remember a few things:

    NSW currently has an incumbant ALP government while QLD doesn’t, and this probably isn’t a great time to be an incumbant government anywhere right now.

    The Minns government went all in the hate laws that One Nation supporters so detest, while the Miles opposition have come out swinging against Crisafulli’s own version.

    Sydney has been hit hardest by the housing crisis that is – in part – fuelling the surge to One Nation.

    Finally, Sandilands Country has historically been One Nation’s strongest area outside of Queensland… it doesn’t surprise me that they are performing well there in the present climate

  24. “One Nation is by far the biggest “do not change negative gearing/capital gains tax arrangements” cohort, so hardly the home for people who think Labor is not left enough on things like tax.

    Bold assumption that enough voters either know or give a damn about policy beyond “the status quo sucks, burn it down”

    Case in point, Trump and Farage for “people voting against self interest because they would rather burn the village down”

  25. Kirsdarke says:
    Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 5:53 pm

    @WWP

    Yeah, we could do that and declare ourselves enemies of MAGA and let the Coalition rule the roost for another decade that’ll probably make our country as shitty as them anyway.

    Or we play the quiet long game, let MAGA burn itself out first, then hopefully make things better in the 2030’s.

    I really don’t like either option and I honestly wish deep down we could do something like that and be as audacious as Ireland or Spain in opposing Likud-MAGA, but we don’t have the geopolitical capability of doing that at the moment.

    Great comment! And Even in constitutionally neutral Éire it is not so straightforward:

    “This time, however, feels different. When the taoiseach, Micheál Martin, presents Donald Trump with a bowl of shamrocks in the Oval Office next week, he will be walking a tightrope.

    The US president’s mercurial nature and tensions between Dublin and Washington over foreign policy, corporate tax and immigration have turned the Irish-American showcase into a potential debacle.
    ………………
    “I hate plámás,” said Vargo, using an Irish term for ingratiating flattery. “But it’s what the president responds to. I suspect the taoiseach will pitch golf big time in hopes of keeping him sweet.”

    But if Martin only lauds and charms Trump, he will anger Irish people who want him to deliver rebukes over US actions against Iran, Greenland, undocumented immigrants and other targets.
    …………..
    Leo Varadkar, a former taoiseach and coalition partner, said Martin had a responsibility to avoid saying or doing anything that might provoke Trump and damage Ireland, but that he also had an obligation to articulate Irish concerns. “I do think Irish people will want him to use the opportunity to say something,” Varadkar told RTÉ.

    Dan Mulhall, a former Irish ambassador to Washington, said there was no point in trying to challenge or confront Trump. “You’re not going to convince him that he’s wrong and you’re right. I’m sure Micheál Martin’s speechwriters are working away to craft a message that will reflect our concerns but not beard the lion in his den.”
    …………..
    But sentimentality about Ireland has receded with demographic realities, leaving it potentially vulnerable, said Vargo. “President Trump’s gaze just hasn’t turned to Ireland, yet. Ireland has to hope it doesn’t.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/13/taoiseach-st-patricks-day-visit-washington-trump

  26. President Donald Trump on Saturday urged countries to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz, in an attempt to force Iran to reopen the waterway as oil prices surge, and the United States reiterated calls for Americans to leave Iraq immediately after an overnight attack damaged its embassy in Baghdad.

    Later Saturday, the Pentagon identified the six service members who were killed when a U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft crashed over friendly airspace Thursday in western Iraq while supporting operations in Iran.

    Tehran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the key choke point for the world’s oil, amid sustained aerial attacks by the U.S. and Israel, which have moved Iran to retaliate across the region.

    Trump wrote on Truth Social that “Many Countries” will send “War Ships” to the Strait of Hormuz to keep it “open and safe,” though he did not name any specific nations. He urged Britain, China, France, Japan and South Korea to join such an effort. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for more specifics.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/14/trump-urges-world-help-open-strait-hormuz-us-embassy-baghdad-hit/

    This is insane. Only the other day Trump told everyone the US had obliterated Iran’s military capabilities, but now they can’t get ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the US needs assistance from others?

    They clearly have no idea what they’re doing.

  27. Miskal says:
    Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 6:31 pm
    “One Nation is by far the biggest “do not change negative gearing/capital gains tax arrangements” cohort, so hardly the home for people who think Labor is not left enough on things like tax.

    Bold assumption that enough voters either know or give a damn about policy beyond “the status quo sucks, burn it down”

    Case in point, Trump and Farage for “people voting against self interest because they would rather burn the village down”

    ___________

    Do you even realize you are arguing against your previous post? Thanks for the laugh 🙂

  28. One Nation is by far the biggest “do not change negative gearing/capital gains tax arrangements” cohort, so hardly the home for people who think Labor is not left enough on things like tax.

    That’s certainly the case when it comes to One Nation MPs and their doners and inner circle, but I suspect the that many in the far broader demographic of people currently considering a vote for One Nation are on much lower incomes and much more mixed opinions on the matter.

    Mind you, I don’t think reforms to CGT and negative gearing by themselves are what could potentially win those people over so much as actually affecting genuine change on the housing crisis that is causing so many desperate people to turn to One Nation – and the former is one such move that would help in accomplishing the latter.

  29. Miskalsays:
    Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 6:31 pm
    “One Nation is by far the biggest “do not change negative gearing/capital gains tax arrangements” cohort, so hardly the home for people who think Labor is not left enough on things like tax.

    Bold assumption that enough voters either know or give a damn about policy beyond “the status quo sucks, burn it down”

    Case in point, Trump and Farage for “people voting against self interest because they would rather burn the village down”

    _______________________

    Fox & Hedgehog polled specifically on CGT several weeks ago:

    (Posted on PB earlier)

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HH88HR1Gwa9keIiIYiBbiSWTAANkKRS9/view

    One Nation is the party of “I wish John Howard was back, but wished he’d shot those Tampa refugees”. And as per my earlier noting that significant improvements in housing affordability in Vic did nothing to stop ON rise (because they are the landlord and property inheritors party).

  30. Case in point, Trump and Farage for “people voting against self interest because they would rather burn the village down”

    Ah, So people voting for the “Leopards eat my face Party” having leopards eat their face and whinging about it, well fuck ’em.

  31. Resolve has been a reputable poll, so the results are concerning.

    The State-based numbers are less reliable because the small samples have larger margins of error.

    The poll had 1803 respondents, so an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent. About 600 would have been from NSW (MOE ~4.1%), while about 360 would have been from Qld (MOE ~ 5.3%).

  32. Miskal says:
    Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 6:20 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/24/federal-green-light-bulldoze-tropical-savanna-northern-territory-threatened-species

    The environment minister, Murray Watt, has given the green light for the bulldozing of nearly 3,000 hectares of tropical savanna in the Northern Territory without an assessment under Australia’s nature laws.

    Top End Pastoral Company’s development would clear 2,723 hectares of woodland – an area 10 times the size of Sydney’s CBD – on Claravale farm and station in the Daly River region for crops, including sorghum and cotton.

    The region is home to threatened species such as the vulnerable ghost bat, Australia’s largest predatory bat.

    These being the laws and processes BW brags about all the time.

    When it comes to the environment, Labor is better then the Liberals because the Liberals are in hell, not because Labor gives a damn

    meh. You left out ‘Gouldian Finch habitat’ which was also one of the reasons the Greens wanted to kill the development. The clearing represents slightly more than 1% of the CURRENT extent of Australia’s tropical savannah woodlands.

    The WHOLE of Australia is within the distribution of multiple listed species. If the same rationale as M is peddling above, then there would be no new wind farms, no new solar farms, no new transmission lines.

    The Greens are THAT stupid.

  33. I do hope “Hamnet” does well at the Academy Awards. The bard’s universality should be instructive in the times of Trump, who has shades of Richard III’s characteristics, albeit he (Richard) has probably been unfairly maligned (hi laughton). The way to confront a bully is to confront him/her, not to acquiesce – to wit Blair’s hot-mic comment during the Iraq invasion: “I will be with you whatever”.

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