The latest monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers has Labor down three points on the primary vote to 29%, as One Nation moves back ahead of the Coalition after the latter drew level in the poll conducted amid last month’s leadership change, respectively being up a point to 24% and down a point to 22%. The Greens are up one point to 12%. No two-party preferred result is provided, but my own estimate based on previous election preferences has Labor’s with a lead over the Coalition of somewhere between 52-48 and 53-47.
This is the first Resolve Strategic poll to gauge personal ratings for Angus Taylor, who has a combined very good and rating of 35% compared with 26% for poor and very poor, compared with 27% and 50% for Sussan Ley in the last poll. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 36% and down three to 52%. He leads Taylor 35-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 38-22 over Ley a month ago. The poll had a sample of 1803, and was presumably conducted last Sunday through to Saturday.
Ferguson should’ve immediately put her hand on her ear and said “I’m being told that’s crap and you’re a liar … we’re out of time”
In Victoria construction workers work.
Jacinta ‘s problem is she doesn’t treat the press with the contempt they deserve.
Yeah, the problem as I see it with Jacinta Allan is that when she took over after Dan Andrews in 2023, it looks like her strategy was basically to coast along with his momentum. Keep up the whole “Building Victoria” brand, do press conferences in construction zones, etc. But that just is not enough.
After the doldrums of the Werribee 2025 by-election she looked like she was a goner, but recovered after Albo won the Federal election 3 months later. But now she’s slipping again, unable to get a poll above 30% this year. And her approval ratings are almost as bad as Keir Starmer’s.
Now over a year later, what’s her ‘draw’ factor for voters? Perhaps that’s something the Victorian Labor communications team can work on, quite urgently.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/03/17/illinois-senate-house-pritzker-stratton/
PP
You know that you are talking absolute rubbish or you are a total and complete idiot.
US guaranteed Ukraine safety and security for Ukraine to forgo their nuclear arsenal I 2993, which Ukraine did. It is not just USA, who did that but guarantors include Russia and UK. So, Europe never guaranteed Ukraine safety and security as such. But it is Europe, which is doing rearguard action.
Trump did not tell or take permission from Europe and or UN to invade and bomb. So, Europe is under no obligation to help US because it is not a NATO operation. Trump is actually helping Russia by this war.
Jacinta Allan’s leadership was under a cloud on Wednesday night as members of the Premier’s own Left faction began citing internal party research to destabilise her position just eight months before the next state election.
Multiple MPs pointed to growing instability within Labor’s ranks, with attention focused on elements of the South East Left sub-faction, where doubts about the Premier’s position have been quietly building for weeks.
Should the South East Left withdraw its support – and align with the Right – the numbers would be there to move against Ms Allan, who has been premier for 2½ years since Daniel Andrews resigned.
Labor will seek a fourth term in office when Victoria goes to the polls on November 28.
Any leadership contest would likely crystallise around two figures: senior minister Gabrielle Williams, from the South East Left, and Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, representing the Right.
The internal manoeuvring has sparked anger within the party, particularly over the citing of supposed internal research used to prosecute the case against Ms Allan. The development is significant because the instability is seen to be coming from sections of the Premier’s Left faction, rather than from the Right. Multiple sources from other parts of the Socialist Left on Wednesday said their support for the Premier was solid and blamed the instability on the South East Left. They accused members of the faction of wanting to “pull the trigger”. Sources from both the Left and Right expressed anger at the fact that internal party research about Ms Allan’s popularity was on Wednesday night being cited, and cast doubt about its validity. The intense leadership chatter follows an outbreak of speculation over the past week that one scenario at the November 28 election could be Ms Allan losing her seat of Bendigo East, Labor holding the most seats, but not enough to secure a majority. This could leave a leaderless Labor negotiating with the Greens to form a minority government, if the Greens pick up enough seats. Labor concerns about this nightmare scenario have fuelled the leadership talk over the past few days.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/jacinta-allan-rocked-by-leadership-talk-among-anxious-labor-mps/news-story/8adfbfc78b7f9fa664451fe4fbab7cf1?amp
@Confessions at 9:04pm
Yep, I’m happy with that result. Stratton is probably the best choice between herself, Krishnamoorthi and Kelly in this narrow primary race.
It also may be a sign of things to come in the 2028 Presidential primaries if Pritzker decides to run, since Stratton was his Lt. Governor.
C@t writes:
As you should, after spreading the bullshit story, even after being corrected half a dozen times, over nearly a decade. Forgive the lack of good grace on this, but you have been a real pest, spreading this stupid fantasy.
OK. I apoligize.
I therefore urge you to DEFINITELY NOT get help.
Landlord of the Year says:
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 8:48 pm
Dr Fumbles McStupid
Jacinta isn’t a bad premier, more she’s had the misfortune of following a dominate leader, Daniel Andrews, and she hasn’t differentiated herself from him and that isn’t easy.
_______________
Yes is the Brumby curse, who objectively didnt do a bad job at all but had to follow a big personality- one thing jacinta has going for her is a much bigger seat buffer going into an election than brumby had. Next election will be interesting comparison wise, going for 4th term, new premier, 2010 had RGR and 2026 has ON and RWNJs.
I remember 2010 real well as, in the Department everything was a bit more prepared for a COG, quite a contrast to the 2006 election when it was more a yah nah exercise with the red and blue books. There were some unbelievers though – in 2010 the final day had polling with the LNP in front and I said to my Dep Sec the Libs will win, they were, well it will never happen – two weeks later there was a exodus of staff who ‘couldn’t work with the Liberals’ going off to the feds and FWA. Just shows how ‘frank and fearless’ the VPS was.
I mean career VPS – one thing Labor did well during the Bracks era was the jobs for labor mates – those who rose to Dep Sec then went off to the upper house or Canberra. The rest of us normals stayed, did our best as professional PS. In fact the best bit of job satisfaction was a call from the Liberal minster with praise about a submission I drafted – just doing a professional job not that I politically agreed with it but drafted the right way for a new Govt.
And what happened in the end, those of us who stayed, and after the COG in 2014 when Andrews was on state declaring no more PS cuts were made redundant through a ALP/CPSU deal to allow the VSP pay rise by letting though the liberal era VPS redundancy deal – oh and those who deserted the ship magically reappears in various EO1/2 roles.
Am I angry, Oh yeah but angry that I didn’t work out the ALP mates rort, the get chummy with ministers and decided to just do the job in objective/impartial way and no be afraid to call out bad policy.
@Holdenhillbilly at 9:11pm
Nice catch. Hopefully it won’t come to a leadership challenge because that’d just break the whole thing, but it’s not looking good if Allan tries to hold on.
Also as a former moderator on The PUB, the domain expired around Christmas, and I’ve received no communication from the other staff as to why.
I think it may be that the owner was unable to pay the upkeep, so it lapsed.
So that’s about it. I regret that it’s come to that, but, it was a great place to hang out for 13 years when it got too unbearable here.
@Kirsdarke
Problem is the current Vic Government is a bit long in the tooth, I was there from pre Bracks and saw the innovation/energy/policy drive pretty much dry out pre 2010 more going through the motions then/nothing new.
I fear the same thing is happening now, a good businesslike operation but nothing new to sell, even 2022 was more a ‘trust me not the other guys, we will deliver’ election.
Spectator: Israeli military has killed Iran’s Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib
They’re killing all the possible negotiators. It looks like they want this war to go on forever. It’s just murder for its own sake now. Israel has become a law unto itself, killing and invading, destroying and demolishing at will.
All over an imaginary god who made an imaginary promise to an imaginary sheep herder.
Just checking the Doomsday clock for an update it now says
“On January 27, 2026, the Doomsday Clock was set at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest the Clock has ever been to midnight in its history. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board (SASB), which sets the Clock, called for urgent action to limit nuclear arsenals, create international guidelines on the use of AI, and form multilateral agreements to address global biological threats.”
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
Bit of a lag from 27 Jan, I figure it is even closer now. If ever there was an administration that would use Nuclear weapons as an no thinking, knee-jerk get-out -of -jail free card it is Trump.
It’s actually quite pitiful how every American event has just become a joyless celebration of pointless death and violence. It sickens me to my stomach.
@Bushfire Bill
Trouble is they all think god in on ‘their’ side. What is the saying, “if Gods on our side who the hell is on theirs”
@Dr Fumbles
Newt Gingrich made a post proposing to use nukes to open a canal that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. It’s since been deleted but memes have already been made of it.
@Bushfire Bill
“They’re killing all the possible negotiators.”
Others have been pushing the barrow that all these assassinations are useless because Iran has replacements and replacements for the replacements and they’ll be just set against Israel and the US even more (though I doubt that part is even possible).
I don’t think that’s entirely true, but I think “killing all possible negotiators” is even less true or possible. All the most experienced negotiators maybe.
At least I understand what they’re trying to do – decapitating the leadership of the Iranian military and intelligence services to make them less of an immediate threat (what long term? Netanyahu never does anything long term). The US doesn’t seem to have a coherent goal or strategy, almost as if they are run by a dumbass in cognitive decline.
Dr Fumbles McStupid, Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 9:43 pm:
I agree. Trump is much more likely than Putin to deploy nukes. I believe Putin would only deploy nukes if hostile conventional ground forces made serious inroads into Russian territory (actual Russian territory, not BS claims on Ukraine) and most likely not even then.
They would need to be substantial ground forces making significant headway towards Moscow, too. After all, in northern autumn 2024, Ukraine invaded Russia’s Kursk oblast with ground forces, which was a pretty clear red line for Russia. We’re still waiting for the apocalyptic response.
Herald Sun 18/03
Labor sources revealed that voters were raising Ms Allan in doorknocking campaigns and at booths at events.
_______________________
Come and knock on my door.
1st question – Where the hell’s our $15 billion.
Is there anybody sane enough around Trump to dissuade him from pressing that little red button marked nukes, on his desk. “You mean I could destroy Tehran in 30 seconds with this? Why don’t we try that”. If Peter Thiel is looking for his illusory anti Christ, he could look pretty close to home.
@Kirsdarke
Wow, the ‘Atoms for Peace’ thing is still alive. I saw something earlier about encouraging Israel to fire off a few nukes. Trouble with the TACO and Hegesth they will just up the ante looking for a quick way out. If all goes to crap and the nukes are flying, then when shit happens it is the whatssinname when the righteous are lifted into heaven. The one thing going against this is I dont think Trump believes in any of that crap just uses it to get the fundamentalist vote.
@Dr Fumbles McStupid
She took over from Andrews under the cloud of the absolutely massive CommGames debacle and never did anything much to win people over as anything more than “the next Labor person after Dan”. Dan had a large personal vote (was probably already sinking with the CommGames thing) which hasn’t carried over.
For years Allan had a reputation as a very good operator as a Minister behind the scenes, that’s why she was the heir apparent to Andrews.
But being a Premier requires being a good frontman or frontwoman, not just being good behind the scenes. It is not for everyone.
The AFL has the same problem at the moment. Andrew Dillon had a great reputation for years in AFL circles as a reliable backroom fixer and negotiator, and the AFL is doing fine financially under his reign, but he’s a disaster area with the fans as the public face of the AFL and the main decisionmaker.
@newy boy
Putin wont deploy nukes, despite what has been hinted before, he is playing the long game, let the US fall apart and become the international pariah then pick up the pieces.
@Arky
Totally agree, trouble with Allen started with the whole selection to be leader. An election without contest done by deals. It so summed up the ALP way of doing things that it is her ‘turn’ to be leader as she had done the hard work as opposed to anyone with actual ability/charisma to appeal to voters.
I have seen it done many times where others would ‘step aside’ and let the chosen get a run for jobs, committee positions and so on.
Dr Fumbles writes:
Even more laughable…. IT’S THE SAME GOD!.
Bushfire Bill says:
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 10:16 pm
Dr Fumbles writes:
Trouble is they all think god in on ‘their’ side. What is the saying, “if Gods on our side who the hell is on theirs”
Even more laughable…. IT’S THE SAME GOD!.
_______________
What if there is no God at all……….
The way some people here behave, you’d think it was actually China who was firing missiles at schools full of kids in other countries.
Obviously if China had murdered 165 schoolgirls in the opening volley of a war of aggression, it would be regarded as the crime of the century. Let alone a “double tap”. We would never stop hearing about it from now until the end of time.
But Epstein’s gang does it and it’s literally not even a thing.
It’s the last days of Atlantis
I’m sure Israel will let Donald know when they’ve finished.
Israel just as stupid as Trump if they think they are going to finish it either.
Imagine if Iran used white phosphorus on a suburb in Israel it would be front page news, but as one poster here demonstrated the people of Lebanon aren’t even really people, it is why we haven’t heard about Israel doing it to the people Lebanon.
Speaking of Israel, a new poll has dropped for them from 11 March.
This one from Midgam polling firm published by HaHadashot
Government: 51 seats
Opposition: 59 Seats
Unaligned: 10 Seats
Election is due in October.
One problem with cutting a canal across the Musandam Peninsula* is that it would probably have to go through two countries.
Another problem is that there’s a perfectly good and much wider strait just to the north, so it would be completely uneconomical except for those rare occasions when some idiot decides to attack Iran with no plan for victory.
And in the event of such an idiotic attack, it would probably be close enough to Iran for the Iranians to mine the areas at each end anyway.
So such a canal would be a really bad idea. Which means it will almost certainly be taken up as a vanity project by some oil-squillionaire any day now.
* Amazingly, Google’s AI let me down. I typed in ‘the peninsula near the straight of Hormuz’ and it didn’t have an answer. But I found it on Wikipedia.
@Dr Fumbles
This is the part where I have to remind you that Daniel Andrews was chosen unopposed to be leader as well, at a time nobody outside the ALP knew who the fuck he was, and that obviously worked out.
This is also the part where I have to remind you that Steve Bracks was chosen unopposed after Brumby resigned.
In theory, the parliamentary party knows who is going to be good at the game and it usually works out. It just hasn’t worked for Allen.
@Arky at 11:03pm
Yeah, the main problem is that we now know who Jacinta Allan is and that she can’t even get 30% of the primary vote so far this year, so, not really working out there.
Daniel Andrews was chosen to keep the opposition leader’s seat warm while Labor spent the inevitable two terms in opposition.* Which shows that being competent and hard working is good, but it’s better to be lucky.
* Although it always seemed bleeding obvious to me that Labor would be favourite to win in 2014, because first-term governments rarely gain seats and the Liberals only needed to lose two to be out.
And Bracksie was also chosen to keep the seat warm not many thought Kennet would lose in 1999
In theory, the parliamentary party knows who is going to be good at the game and it usually works out. It just hasn’t worked for Allen.
_______________________________
Agree with that time to ditch the rules that need a member vote on the leader.
@Dr Fumbles
Bracksie’s performance at the 1999 election was amazing. I remember it because even though I was 11 at the time, my Conservative-voting family told me to shut up whenever Victorian Labor commercials appeared on the TV.
“Who cares? Labor Cares!”
And they defeated Kennett.
I can remember the 1999 election too.
I sat myself in front of the teev with a fridge full of beer and a stack of VHS tapes to turn to when even the beer couldn’t stop the depressing results becoming unbearable.
And the VHS tapes sat there unused as I watched, and watched, and watched …
And then my sister rang for some completely unrelated reason, and I asked if she was watching the election.
Her : “No, it’s too depressing.”
Me : “It might not be as depressing as you think.”
The best bit was the live crosses to the Liberal celebratory dinner, where the atmosphere was like a morgue. The second best was Peter Reith going on and on about it just being a protest vote.
Kirsdarke: I’m not even from Victoria and I remember that dripping tap advert. Possibly the most effective political ad of the last few decades.
Kirsdarke at 4.44 and 5.04 pm re NZ election video
Mr Sloan Zone made three errors, unnoticed by any of the many comments on his site. Two are historical, and one is a misinterpretation of a polling graph that he displayed.
1) The big error concerned the origin of the Maori seats. He said it was about enhancing social cohesion. Wrong. Most Maori lived in the N Island, Aotearoa, not in the S Island, Te Wai Pounamu. The Maori seats were instituted in 1867 by Pakeha in the N Island. The reason was simply to ensure there were relatively more N Island seats, at a time when Dunedin was the biggest city by population due to the gold rush in the S Island.
Here is the key passage from the relevant source, Alan Ward, A Show of Justice, Auckland Uni Press, 1973, p 209:
“The exact form of the representation—four seats, three in the North Island and one in the South—and its successful passage through the Assembly was determined largely by the fact that it preserved the distribution of seats between the North and South Islands which would otherwise have been unsettled by the grant of increased representation to the West Coast goldfields. On the other hand it was largely because the South Islanders were unhappy at the prospect of three additional Pakeha members in the North that the Government accepted an amendment making
it mandatory that the Maori representatives should themselves be Maori.”
Available at: https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstreams/1c2fa4f3-fc19-4ed4-b9dd-60eb0cab4cd7/download
2) He suggested Ardern was popular until she resigned in early 2023. She had already become unpopular, partly due to media attacks (the NZ media is worse even than the Australian media). That was a factor in her resignation. Hipkins, her successor, did well initially, then faced four disastrous Labour own goals from March 2023 onwards, committed by others, which led to the Labour defeat in 2023.
Hipkins is significantly less unpopular than Luxon or Seymour, and level with Peters:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
3) The error of polling misinterpretation was to claim National’s polling has got worse in the past 8 months. No. Look at the top graph at the above link. It has stabilised since about August 2025.
It is very likely that National’s polling will get worse in the next 8 months before the election, because of its belligerent austerity policies during a recession, compounded by the global downturn caused by Trump’s war, but Luxon has not lost the election yet.
@Dr Doolittle at 11:44pm
Oh dear. Well, thanks for clearing that information for us.
NZ Labour would probably be happier with just the Greens to wrangle for government. Relying on the Maori Party for numbers with their current infighting would be… interesting. (Imagine half a dozen Lidia Thorpes all in the same party.) A Labour/Green coalition with an agreement that Maori won’t support Nat/ACT/NZF confidence votes would be less hair-raising.
Why is it always the media and never the politician’s fault for their loss of support.
Because right wing media are propaganda units spewing lies in conjunction with right wing political parties. Lies that convince people to wrongly vote for right wing politicians.
New thread.
I suspect any diplomatic solution will involve buying oil or gas using Chinese Yuan or possibly another currently other than the US dollar. Trump is too stupid to realise he’s destroyed the petro dollar.