Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)

Two polls point to a body blow for Labor in the wake of Bondi, but diverge on the impact for One Nation.

The second and third federal polls for the year have been published over the last few days, the more recent being a Roy Morgan result that has Labor down two on last month to 30%, the Coalition up four to 30.5%, One Nation down half to 15% (a distinctly different result from the other two recent polls) and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Whereas Morgan’s practice since the May election has been to publish large-sample monthly results compiled from its regular surveying, this result is limited to a 1676 sample over a one-week period from January 5 to 11, the former date marking the resumption of its surveying after a break that began in mid-December. Labor is credited with a 52-48 two-party lead using both respondent-allocated preferences and previous election preference flows, compared with respective leads of 55-45 and 55.5-44.5 last month.

The other comes from Fox & Hedgehog, a new outfit founded by former Peter Dutton staffer Michael Horner, and has Labor leading 53-47 from primary votes of Labor 29%, Coalition 25%, One Nation 21% and Greens 14%. Also featured are further two-party preferred match-ups showing Labor leading One Nation 56-44 and the Coalition leading One Nation 63-37, and a “three-party preferred” result with Labor on 46%, the Coalition on 29% and One Nation on 25%. Together with Anthony Albanese (33% approval and 48% disapproval) and Sussan Ley (19% approval and 32% disapproval), personal ratings were included for six further politicians, with Pauline Hanson scoring 38% approval and 41% disapproval. Albanese leads Ley 39-31 on preferred prime minister.

As well as extensive breakdowns on voting intention, the poll further offers the striking findings that 51% consider the Australian political system “fundamentally broken”, with only 22% disagreeing, and 55% in favour of “a pause to all migration to Australia other than tourists”, with only 22% disagreeing. Twenty-eight per cent favoured the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with 32% opposed. The poll was conducted January 5 and 6 from a sample of 1608.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,342 thoughts on “Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)”

Comments Page 44 of 47
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  1. Confessions @ #2134 Sunday, January 18th, 2026 – 7:46 am

    Yesterday there were comparisons with Trump and Caligula.

    US commentator Mike Madrid is also comparing…

    https://greattransformation.substack.com/p/the-last-days-of-caligula

    Americans may continue to hope – as this article does – that their institutions are “bent but not broken”. But what Trump has done is expose that those institutions were built entirely on sand. And it turned out to be quicksand.

    Other countries will continue to deal with the US because they have no choice. Individuals may flatter him, give him peace prizes, hand over territory, or simply pay money (as we do) in the hope that he will spare them and their countries the worst of his Caligula-like excesses.

    But no-one will ever really trust the US again. After the gold is stripped out of the White House and his ballroom has been demolished, this alone will remain as Trump’s legacy.


  2. Mattsays:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 2:05 am
    @Ven:

    Trump’s DoJ now claims no US Court can force release of Epstein files

    Didn’t Congress pass an Act stating that the files had to be released promptly? An Act which was signed by Trump himself?

    I’d hope that even this SCOTUS, as pathetic as it is, wouldn’t allow the “POTUS” to flat-out ignore an Act passed by the current Congress!

    Please note the above legislation was unanimously by US Congress except for one Republican HOR, which is extraordinary in itself because of sharp political divide between Republicans and Democrats

  3. simply pay money (as we do) 

    ++×+

    Why does ‘the world’s richest country’ and by far the ‘richest’ president need other country’s money?

    Something doesn’t add up.

    Surely if there is a 3.5% rule it applies to countries not just people.

  4. Ben Raue of Tally Room has had enough.

    “Comments have been a problem for a while, with a large volume of comments, often off-topic and not of high quality.

    As a solution to this problem, I have implemented a new policy. Only logged-in users can comment, and only those who are Tally Room members can log in. That’s people who donate $8 (+GST) per month, plus some grandfathered users who give $5 per month and have been doing so since before the price rise.”

    https://www.tallyroom.com.au/63729

  5. A 20-year-old man who allegedly left an influential West Australian political and business figure in a coma at the end of last year also allegedly assaulted another man on Christmas Day.

    Armadale Magistrates Court was shown confronting footage of both incidents when Lesmurdie man Brodie Jake Dewar, 20, appeared for a bail hearing on Friday.

    The court was told Dewar had already been charged with grievous bodily harm after allegedly assaulting Mineral Resources director and former WA Labor secretary Tim Picton in the early hours of December 27 outside a Northbridge club.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/court-shown-shocking-footage-of-wa-labor-figure-s-assault-as-alleged-attacker-faces-new-charges-20260116-p5nul9.html

  6. Macca RB @ #3247 Sunday, January 18th, 2026 – 9:04 am

    Imacca @ 3.26pm.
    Welcome to the “Macca Club”. I had the same experience on Friday morning.
    Rather than an infection, so far, it was two clogged ears, full of wax, as a result of my daily swimming regime.
    Foolishly, I used ear plugs – which had the effect of pushing said wax further down the ear canal.
    Second mistake, was to use Aqua Ear drops, which rather than cleansing the ear canal acted to solidify, rather than diluting, the wax.
    I attended our local, Erina EC Clinic, which is located, or has taken over, the medical practice which I have attended for over 15 years.
    My regular practitioner was booked out for the day, but within 10 minutes of my arrival I was treated by a duty doctor and the clinic nurse.
    Ears not completely flushed – but on a course of drops for 3 days and a return consultation with my regular GP and the nurse on Tuesday.
    Regular PB swimmers be cautious using Aqua Ear or similar drops to treat wax build ups – try using Wax Sol drops which dilute the wax rather than solidifying it.
    The EEC clinic is one of the better public health initiatives of this government, building on the great work of previous Labor Governments.

    Aqua ear is meant to dry the ear after swimming. I think it has alcohol in it.
    Long time swimmer with major ear problems who had yo stop


  7. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 9:06 am
    Confessions @ #2134 Sunday, January 18th, 2026 – 7:46 am

    Yesterday there were comparisons with Trump and Caligula.

    US commentator Mike Madrid is also comparing…

    https://greattransformation.substack.com/p/the-last-days-of-caligula

    Americans may continue to hope – as this article does – that their institutions are “bent but not broken”. But what Trump has done is expose that those institutions were built entirely on sand. And it turned out to be quicksand.

    Other countries will continue to deal with the US because they have no choice. Individuals may flatter him, give him peace prizes, hand over territory, or simply pay money (as we do) in the hope that he will spare them and their countries the worst of his Caligula-like excesses.

    But no-one will ever really trust the US again. After the gold is stripped out of the White House and his ballroom has been demolished, this alone will remain as Trump’s legacy.

    Totally agree P1.
    Also, we are seeing an extraordinary spectacle, where European countries like France, Germany, UK are sending troops to Greenland to defend agression by not Russia and not China but by USA.
    NATO is on the brink of collapse.

  8. The so-called anti-hate speech, thought crime provisions was never going to be practicable or enforceable and as many posters, with a greater legal facility than mine, have suggested that it could be contestable in the High Court.

    Agree

    We either go all in on regulating religion like Singapore (which our constitution would appear to specifically prevent) or we educate people including Jews that there is always going to be a certain amount of hatred out there, the key is stopping those who intend to act on it.

    And the Abrahamic religions have ALL made threats of mass death against the others, either by human or supernatural agency, and elevated these to scriptural authority.

    And there is no point debating this as some people here seem to think you can.

  9. Honorius, lived in Milan rather than Rome. Famously misunderstood the news of Rome’s fall, thinking it referred to his pet chicken named “Roma”.

  10. In the “what on earth” category:

    Some policy discussions’: Greens say they have no deal with Libs to oust Labor

    By Jasper Lindell

    The ACT Greens say there is no agreement to oust Labor from government and form a partnership with the Canberra Liberals, following a widespread rumour the two parties had hatched a plan to end Chief Minister Andrew Barr’s premiership.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9155028/act-greens-deny-coalition-with-canberra-liberals-amid-discussions/

  11. Americans may continue to hope – as this article does – that their institutions are “bent but not broken”. But what Trump has done is expose that those institutions were built entirely on sand. And it turned out to be quicksand.

    ++++

    This is why liberalism is dead. Cheer its demise. Liberalism is the rules to a duel. But the only rule at a duel is shoot first. The fascists turned up to the duel with a gun and shot first while the US democrats danced, embodied by Clinton playing his saxophone while the US burned.

    And suddenly we needed a Resistance movement and none was to be found.

  12. SL says:

    “The release of the Liberal Party’s review into its disastrous 2025 election campaign has been delayed because former opposition leader Peter Dutton claims elements of the report are defamatory to him and his staff.”

    ———————
    This creates an ideal opportunity for Sussan Ley to step in to resolve the impasse and stamp her mark on the party leadership. 🙂

  13. I woke up today and surveyed the damage, and then read this article …

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-whiplash-we-can-no-longer-pretend-this-isn-t-a-crisis-20260115-p5nufh.html

    What will it take for policymakers to take this more seriously?

    That’s the question a desperate-sounding Jeremy posed on local ABC talkback radio as he drove through central Victoria, which has been ravaged by bushfires for the past week, while his family was on the Great Ocean Road trapped by floodwaters.

    It’s a question we should all be asking.

    These are not just “weather events”, and it’s not like we haven’t been warned. Climate scientists have been sounding the alarm for decades about the devastation that unchecked fossil fuel production and consumption, and the resulting warming, will bring.

    Perhaps we need a Royal Commission? We seem to have them for far less compelling issues.

  14. Its no ‘suddenly’, trump has been part of the US poltical scene actively now for more than a decade.

    +++++
    Obviously. Why do you think suddenly refers to the some different period?

    Obama should have declared trump non grata and used emergency powers but hey…gotta do that liberalism shite

  15. So we have an alternative timeline where Obama became the first US dictatorship?

    The US had some pretty bad presidents towards the end of the 19th century. They got over that, they’ll get over this.

  16. citizensays:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 9:29 am
    In the “what on earth” category:

    Some policy discussions’: Greens say they have no deal with Libs to oust Labor

    By Jasper Lindell

    The ACT Greens say there is no agreement to oust Labor from government and form a partnership with the Canberra Liberals, following a widespread rumour the two parties had hatched a plan to end Chief Minister Andrew Barr’s premiership.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9155028/act-greens-deny-coalition-with-canberra-liberals-amid-discussions/

    I guess The Greens can no longer deny being Little Libs.

    However, wouldn’t you have thought that a party that styles itself on being ‘to the Left of Labor’, would have no truck with a party far to the Right of Labor?

    Not to mention Liberals behind the scenes but still influential in the party in the ACT, like Zed Seselja and that Vicki woman who funded the ‘David Pocock is a Green in disguise campaign’? Not to mention the Conservative Christian baggage that would come with the Liberals. But the ACT Greens’ lust for more powerful positions in a Greens/Liberal government appears to be blinding them to all these realities.

    And HardBeingGreen/EasyBeingLiberal agrees with it. In news that surprises no one.

  17. HH DP

    Carville predicts GOP ‘wipeout’ in 2026 midterms: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5694291-democrats-midterm-elections-james-carville/


    Mostly Interestedsays:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 9:46 am
    So we have an alternative timeline where Obama became the first US dictatorship?

    The US had some pretty bad presidents towards the end of the 19th century. The got over that, they’ll get over this.

    This ‘naive’ belief that
    1. US political system will work (aka mid term elections will happen) when Trump explicitly said he wants to cancel mid terms
    Or
    2. US Political system work ‘suddenly’ will spring back to vitality

    is very touching.

    Don’t you know the reason MI?
    Because one side of the politics, aka Republicans, are completely rotten.

  18. I’m glad the ACT Greens are in talks with the Liberals, even if it comes to nothing. In politics all that really matters should be getting things done, locking in wins for those who voted for you, if that means working with those you normally despise, so be it.

    If nothing else, it will hopefully make ACT Labor think more about their approach

    No surprise to see Albo split the bill yesterday, it was always going to happen. It will be good to see the gun law changes go through, although I’m not sure all the states will get onboard with the buy-back

    See what happens with the rest of it

    Looking forward to seeing some polls tonight, well hopefully

  19. We went to the pub for our evening meal last night with a group who I reckon have always been apolitical. I was surprised when the conversation ended up about feelings of horror of ICE activities in Chumpistan and jokes and laughter about Chump. I avoided comment and it was obvious the source of their opinions was social media.

    There is no doubt in my mind that across the world people are laughing at Chump and alarmed at what is happening there.

    Irrespective of the general attitude towards all politicians, the way they see US events would be the same as everyone else, feelings of horror at what is happening and great mirth at the meanderings of Chump. Surely many US citizens can sense what most of the world is thinking.

    Surely the Chump experiment won’t last another three years.

  20. Aqua ear is meant to dry the ear after swimming. I think it has alcohol in it.

    Fire and brimstone to punish evildoers that use cotton buds.

  21. The Poll Bludger will go on regardless

    I don’t know why William doesn’t charge money for this site. 10c a post i would be up for. He’d rival trump for wealth.

  22. C@tmomma @ #2170 Sunday, January 18th, 2026 – 9:48 am

    I guess The Greens can no longer deny being Little Libs.

    However, wouldn’t you have thought that a party that styles itself on being ‘to the Left of Labor’, would have no truck with a party far to the Right of Labor?

    Why not? Labor does. But then Labor is far closer to the Liberals than the Greens are. In which case, I guess you have made a fair point.

    Should we then call Labor “little Libs”? How about “wannabe Libs”?

  23. Grannyanny

    What interests me is all the appeases like the 1930s. The reconquest of the Rhineland. Munich.

    We have that Venezuelan reminding me of Hungary going along with Hitler to avenge trianon but only gave Stalin what little justification he needed to take them over anyway.

    And farage playing Mosley.

    And all the wannabe quislings like pollievre

  24. Further to my last, I reckon the Europeans troop deployments to Greenland are insignificant and it is unlikely that we will see a buildup.

    The deployment was to send a signal to Chump and that appears to have worked. 

    As usual the real harm from his imposition of tariffs will impact US consumers far more than anyone else. I expect another TACO with regard to these tariffs real soon.

    I would love to be a fly on the wall to see what really happens when the European leaders get together. A mixture of laughter and horror most likely.

  25. So we have an alternative timeline where Obama became the first US dictatorship

    In the purest Roman sense of dictatorship maybe. As I said, liberalism is dead and we need to craft its replacement.

    Trump has become indistinguishable in our timeline from a putin puppet doing russias bidding to destroy the west. And putin has it easy, he has trump worshipping him.

  26. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 9:46 am
    So we have an alternative timeline where Obama became the first US dictatorship?
    ————————————-

    “In a Mirror, Darkly” reworked?

  27. But then Labor is far closer to the Liberals than the Greens are.

    The Greens siding with the Coalition to block the Hate Speech Bill puts the lie to that stupid assertion right away.

  28. Mostly Interested says:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 10:44 am
    Corleone, its easy enough to set up a periodical payment.

    Which I have been doing monthly for yonks. 🙂

    This blog is worth its weight in gold. But I can’t afford that. 😉

  29. Anyone remember the 1977 comedy “Quark” with Richard Benjamin as Adam Quark?

    C@tmomma,

    You definitely can’t beat Red Dwarf for SF comedy.

  30. Matt says:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 2:05 am
    I’d hope that even this SCOTUS, as pathetic as it is, wouldn’t allow the “POTUS” to flat-out ignore an Act passed by the current Congress!

    SCOUTS being ultra right wing catholic have already determined that POTUS is as infallible as the POPE & has been sent by Dog to destroy the planet so the Rapture can proceed.

    AI..
    Catholic teaching emphasizes that all believers will be transformed at Christ’s second coming, which occurs after a period of tribulation,

  31. The Trump administration is asking countries that want a permanent spot on his new Board of Peace to contribute at least $1 billion.
    According to a draft charter for the proposed group seen by Bloomberg, President Donald Trump would serve as its inaugural chairman and would decide on who is invited to be members. Decisions would be taken by a majority, with each member state present getting one vote, but all would be subject to the chairman’s approval.
    “Each Member State shall serve a term of no more than three years from this Charter’s entry into force, subject to renewal by the Chairman. The three-year membership term shall not apply to Member States that contribute more than USD $1,000,000,000 in cash funds to the Board of Peace within the first year of the Charter’s entry into force,” the draft says.
    Critics are worried that Trump is trying to build an alternative, or rival, to the United Nations, which he has long criticized. The board is described in the charter as “an international organization that seeks to promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict.” It would become official once three member states agree to the charter.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-17/trump-wants-nations-to-pay-1-billion-to-stay-on-his-peace-board

  32. The leaked three page letter from Mali to the Festival board chair does everything but command her to ditch Abdul-Fattah.

    It was one of those “I can’t tell you to, but if you know what’s good for you letters.”

    I met the Labor candidate for Unley yesterday at the shops. She was lovely. A legal aid lawyer for mental health patients so she has a great background.

  33. If you are looking to blame liberalism for the US being cooked, you’re looking in all the wrong places.

    The simple fact of this matter is that 40% of the US voting population are gung-ho for destroying democracy (well, any democracy that leads to a Democrat win). That the institutions are too weak to stop this is a feature of the US. And…. Politics in the US is identity. A culture and a political foundation like that only ever needed one party to go rogue to tear down any semblance of a true democracy.

    It doesn’t matter what platform the Democrats had. Liberal, Green, socialist, pastafarian. It is not about policy. It is about us vs them. Hate. Win at all costs. Their identity rests on winning this game. If you follow that thread – only autocracy or civil war can result.

    When Biden won I posted that democracy wouldn’t save the US and I still hold that. The Democrats
    Might win the midterms and they might win back the White House in 3 years and they may do that with liberal policies. But they can’t govern with a GOP like this. And the GOP aren’t going to be enlightened. The only hope was to loosen the federation to protect Blue states from the GOP. Give the red states control over civil rights, abortion, guns even immigration enforcement etc in exchange for similar sovereignty for blue states.

  34. “The Trump administration is asking countries that want a permanent spot on his new Board of Peace to contribute at least $1 billion.”

    Gee, I wonder who will control after the cash?

  35. I have now had a chance to check out the online papers.

    From the Guardian, old Chumpy is imposing tariffs on European allies pending agreement for the purchase of Greenland. Very recently it was going to be an invasion so there’s the first TACO. Elsewhere the reported offer price is $700 billion but I am not sure who that gets paid to.

    The Guardian also mentions a boycott of the soccer world cup. Now wouldn’t that be a poke in the eye after that magnificent initiative, the FIFA Peace Prize. (sarcasm alert) We already know that many international spectators won’t be attending, either because they are not game to go there due to ICE activities, or their country is on the banned list. A boycott of teams or better still, playing the matches elsewhere would indicate to Chump what the rest of the world really thinks of him.

  36. SMH/The Age have allowed moderated comments again on Propaganda Parnell’s diatribe. The comments don’t look good for her. Particularly the most respected ones.

    “TonyH 3 hours ago
    Dear Parnell I am fairly certain that the majority of right minded Aussies wanted this government to control illicit vape and tobacco markets run by criminal organisations. In 2024, 77% of Australians supported the social media ban for under 16’s. As usual your biased opinion piece is light on facts and heavy on hyperbole.
    Respect 109”

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