Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)

Two polls point to a body blow for Labor in the wake of Bondi, but diverge on the impact for One Nation.

The second and third federal polls for the year have been published over the last few days, the more recent being a Roy Morgan result that has Labor down two on last month to 30%, the Coalition up four to 30.5%, One Nation down half to 15% (a distinctly different result from the other two recent polls) and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Whereas Morgan’s practice since the May election has been to publish large-sample monthly results compiled from its regular surveying, this result is limited to a 1676 sample over a one-week period from January 5 to 11, the former date marking the resumption of its surveying after a break that began in mid-December. Labor is credited with a 52-48 two-party lead using both respondent-allocated preferences and previous election preference flows, compared with respective leads of 55-45 and 55.5-44.5 last month.

The other comes from Fox & Hedgehog, a new outfit founded by former Peter Dutton staffer Michael Horner, and has Labor leading 53-47 from primary votes of Labor 29%, Coalition 25%, One Nation 21% and Greens 14%. Also featured are further two-party preferred match-ups showing Labor leading One Nation 56-44 and the Coalition leading One Nation 63-37, and a “three-party preferred” result with Labor on 46%, the Coalition on 29% and One Nation on 25%. Together with Anthony Albanese (33% approval and 48% disapproval) and Sussan Ley (19% approval and 32% disapproval), personal ratings were included for six further politicians, with Pauline Hanson scoring 38% approval and 41% disapproval. Albanese leads Ley 39-31 on preferred prime minister.

As well as extensive breakdowns on voting intention, the poll further offers the striking findings that 51% consider the Australian political system “fundamentally broken”, with only 22% disagreeing, and 55% in favour of “a pause to all migration to Australia other than tourists”, with only 22% disagreeing. Twenty-eight per cent favoured the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with 32% opposed. The poll was conducted January 5 and 6 from a sample of 1608.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,342 thoughts on “Federal polls: Roy Morgan and Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)”

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  1. So one that does not like people having freedoms they do not agree with. Oh I know what people will say, I want the freedom not to be killed by a gun. Funny how those same people seem to want to be killed by alcohol though.

    Sophistry.

  2. Gul Dukat single-handedly saved the entire Cardassian Detapa Council from bands of marauding Klingon invaders. If it weren’t for the Federation war criminal Benjamin Sisko and his illegal blockade of the wormhole the Cardassians would never have needed to join the Dominion.

  3. Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
    Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 11:44 pm
    Gul Dukat single-handedly saved the entire Cardassian Detapa Council from bands of marauding Klingon invaders. If it weren’t for the Federation war criminal Benjamin Sisko and his illegal blockade of the wormhole the Cardassians would never have needed to join the Dominion.
    ___________________
    What age did you lose your virginity?

  4. Introduce it, have it voted down twice for use as a double dissolution trigger.

    Then let the Greens and Teals and One Nation and the Nats and Libs fight each other over a new version.

    The LNP will never back down about having “the right to be a bigot”, wanting to ban saying Palestine should exist and want to ban calling out Christian church pedos and their cults. The Greens will want to ban anyone saying Israel should exist and ban being allowed to criticise Islam.

    If anyone complains Labor can say “we tried, the Parliament voted it down and the other parties can’t agree to new legislation, we are still involved in discussions but it will take more than Labor alone to get this done.”

    “What age did you lose your virginity?”
    I’ll have to check in with your mum to remind me what year it was.

  5. Ghost Of Whitlamsays:

    “What age did you lose your virginity?”
    I’ll have to check in with your mum to remind me what year it was.
    ______________
    eeek. I obviously hit a nerve.

  6. Well there is a fundamental difference between being killed in a MV accident and shot and killed by a deranged gunman. One is an accident which may have a number of non-planned contributing factors and the other is a deliberate act.
    Of course there are deliberate deaths involving a MV but these are a small minority of MV deaths.
    Not a valid comparison in my opinion.

  7. After bucketloads of rain, with many totals well North of 100 mm, there’s an emergency flood warning for areas around Narrabeen Lagoon (Sydney Northern Beaches). There’s a Watch and Act flood warning for the Central Coast, Newcastle area, Manly Lagoon and parts of SW Sydney and the Illawarra.

  8. The Age 17/01
    On Saturday night, Australian tennis joined a growing number of major sports in staging an event before the event to mark its territory.
    Evidently professional competitions have noticed the vacuum of attention the Olympic Games creates at its kick-off every four years and are keen for a piece of the action.
    _______________________
    I don’t like it.
    Tennis grand slams go for two weeks not three.
    We don’t need a opening week and an opening ceremony, it’s all a bit wanky. Just let the tennis be the product.
    Opening week fooled me and many others.
    There were talk back callers to 774 the other day irate that they booked flights and accommodation expecting to see the 1st week’s matches and all they got were the qualifiers.
    Some successfully received refunds with TA admitting they could have handled the communication better

  9. Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
    Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 11:56 pm
    “eeek. I obviously hit a nerve.”
    Just a bit of banter no worries haha.
    ________________________
    Is that you Papa?

  10. Taylormadesays:

    I don’t like it.
    Tennis grand slams go for two weeks not three.
    ______________
    I hear ya. Look what they are doing to the footy. Opening Round instead of Round 1.

    And now the latest changes to the finals system.

  11. Saudi Arabia tells Iran it won’t join any military action and won’t allow its territory or airspace to be used, says source.
    —AFP.

  12. Vensays:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 12:09 am
    Saudi Arabia tells Iran it won’t join any military action and won’t allow its territory or airspace to be used, says source.
    —AFP.
    ____________________
    Which is ironic because I believe those US bases in Saudi Arabia were put there to guarantee its security from Iran.

  13. GoW ”Gul Dukat single-handedly saved the entire Cardassian Detapa Council from bands of marauding Klingon invaders…”

    Star Trek Deep Space 9 (what happened to 1 to 8?). Not quite sure where this fits in to the conversion but I’ll look in tomorrow morning and see if it gets resolved…

  14. Who hasn’t thought of putting their kids in a chicken coop and shooting at them with BB guns, but you just don’t do it:

    A Missouri couple are facing 12 felony charges each after police said they allegedly abused and neglected the woman’s two teenagers, as well as locking them in a chicken pen and forcing them to fight each other…..

    Hayford and Menees allegedly refused to feed or house the teens, locking a 13-year-old and a 14-year-old in a chicken coop and using BB guns to shoot at them. Evidence shows a pattern of abuse, including forcing children to fight each other during a birthday “fight night,” the sheriff’s office said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/duo-accused-of-locking-teens-in-chicken-pens-forcing-fight-nights/ar-AA1UmTlB?uxmode=ruby&ocid=edgntpruby&pc=HCTS&cvid=696b8a2d9e8b479791cda4a24a75ba5e&ei=12

  15. I agree with you there, TM. I caught the opening ceremony tonight and wondered (outside of making more money) what the point of it was. Just play the tournament.

  16. Star Trek Deep Space 9 (what happened to 1 to 8?)

    Weren’t 1-8 (and presumably 10 onwards) just different stations at the edge of Federation space? I dunno, it’s honestly been years since I’ve seen the show (which I loved for its realist take on the Trek universe and not always portraying Starfleet or Federation politics in a perfect light.)

  17. As somebody who has changed religion, how do you discuss that without free speech protections? Freedom of religion includes freedom to change religions, and that involves being able to discuss the reasons for that change – both the gaining of one set of beliefs, and the loss of the other. That’s not a gentle conversation, it’s one that requires strong free speech protections. How do you have freedom of religion without free speech?

    We haven’t all had the gentle upbringings that most of our MPs had. Some of us through no fault of our own were raised in cults. We need to be able to talk about that experience.

  18. “just different stations”
    Yeah. They came up with DS9 first, then backfilled in references to other numbered Deep Spaces in other series & episodes.

    “All you freaks still rubbing one out to Seven of Nine.”
    Or Jadzia. Or Evil Mirror Hoshi. Or Laan. Kai Winn if needs must.

  19. “nath: Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 12:15 am
    Who hasn’t thought of putting their kids in a chicken coop and shooting at them with BB guns, but you just don’t do it”

    For fuck’s sake, pal, did you seriously think this horrific report of child abuse was a source for humour!? Next time think before you post such vile filth!

  20. Do any of the polls give an option of voting for a generic/hypothetical community independent / teal candidate? Or are they just give an ‘other’ option?

  21. @Ven:

    Trump’s DoJ now claims no US Court can force release of Epstein files

    Didn’t Congress pass an Act stating that the files had to be released promptly? An Act which was signed by Trump himself?

    I’d hope that even this SCOTUS, as pathetic as it is, wouldn’t allow the “POTUS” to flat-out ignore an Act passed by the current Congress!

  22. Some shenanigans going on in ToyTown – could the Greens be revealing their true colours? Andrew Barr to get the chop?

    Multiple sources suggested Greens leader Shane Rattenbury and Opposition Leader Mark Parton were in talks to form a joint cabinet and remove ACT Labor from office, potentially as early as the first week of February when the Legislative Assembly next sits.

    Talks were described by multiple sources to have included details about the composition of cabinet and an agreed transfer of the chief ministership after a predetermined period.

    Labor and the Greens took the unusual step of issuing statements to The Canberra Times on Saturday amid continued talk of the supposed attempt to replace the ACT government less than halfway into the parliamentary term.

    An ACT Greens spokesperson on Saturday said it was the party’s duty to check whether a new Liberal leader meant new opportunities to get things done.

    “The Greens hold sole balance of power in the Assembly, meaning we can join with Labor or the Liberals on a case-by-case basis to pass or block anything that comes to the Parliament. It’s great to have options, and different avenues to apply pressure to get things done,” the spokesperson said.

    The Greens did not rule out ever forming a partnership with the Canberra Liberals to govern together, a position consistent with previous statements.

    Combining the Greens’ four seats in the Legislative Assembly with the Liberals’ nine would hand the two parties a majority in the 25-seat parliament.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9155028/act-greens-deny-coalition-with-canberra-liberals-amid-discussions/

  23. A Missouri couple are facing 12 felony charges each after police said they allegedly abused and neglected the woman’s two teenagers, as well as locking them in a chicken pen and forcing them to fight each other…..

    Hayford and Menees allegedly refused to feed or house the teens, locking a 13-year-old and a 14-year-old in a chicken coop and using BB guns to shoot at them. Evidence shows a pattern of abuse, including forcing children to fight each other during a birthday “fight night,” the sheriff’s office said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/duo-accused-of-locking-teens-in-chicken-pens-forcing-fight-nights/ar-AA1UmTlB?uxmode=ruby&ocid=edgntpruby&pc=HCTS&cvid=696b8a2d9e8b479791cda4a24a75ba5e&ei=12

    Send in the National Guard and ICE and Border Patrol to Missouri!

    Oh wait…it’s a Red State. 🙄

  24. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Trump says 8 European countries will face 10% tariff for opposing US control of Greenland: https://apnews.com/article/denmark-greenland-us-trump-4ad99ea3975a8b62d37bd04961feda55

    Keir Starmer says Trump’s threat to impose tariffs over Greenland ‘completely wrong’: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/17/uk-politicians-condemn-trumps-threat-to-impose-tariffs-over-greenland

    Nigel Farage cannot be trusted with national security, says defence secretary: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-healy-nigel-farage-national-security-reform-labour-b2902347.html

    Republican dissent as key figures warn Trump against Greenland pursuit: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/17/republicans-trump-greenland

    Iranian Protesters Say They Were Betrayed By Trump: https://time.com/7347090/iran-protesters-trump-help/

    Intelligence indicates Russians are preparing for new large-scale attacks on Ukraine: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/01/16/8016570/

    Trump, 79, Appears to Forget Name of Woman Who Just Gave Him Her Nobel Peace Prize: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-79-appears-to-forget-name-of-woman-who-just-gave-him-her-nobel-peace-prize/

    Trump announces he will sue JPMorgan ‘over the next two weeks’ for allegedly ‘DEBANKING’ him: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-jpmorgan-debanking-lawsuit-00735544

    Carville predicts GOP ‘wipeout’ in 2026 midterms: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5694291-democrats-midterm-elections-james-carville/

    Judge rules feds in Minneapolis immigration operation can’t detain or tear gas peaceful protesters: https://apnews.com/article/minneapolis-immigration-operation-lawsuit-8805b301ff4a7bfb0058e085ffa8c034

    ICE is sweeping up Native Americans in Minnesota arrests, tribal leaders say: ‘Our citizenship is not negotiable’: https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/ice-native-americans-arrested-minnesota-citizens-b2901556.html

    83-year-old man convicted of killing Uber driver who he wrongly thought was scamming him: https://apnews.com/article/uber-driver-scam-shooting-4532b05caee0a17e5e9b02f5ede3cca5

  25. OpenAI plans to start testing ads inside ChatGPT in the coming weeks, marking a significant shift for one of the world’s most widely used AI products. The company announced Friday that initial ad tests will roll out in the United States before expanding globally.

    OpenAI says ads will not influence ChatGPT’s responses, and that all ads will appear in separate, clearly labeled boxes directly below the chatbot’s answer. For instance, if a user asks ChatGPT for help planning a trip to New York City, they will still get a standard answer from the chatbot, and then they also might see an ad for a hotel in the area.

    The first ads will appear for logged-in users on ChatGPT’s free tier, as well as its $8-a-month Go tier, which will begin to roll out to users in the United States on Friday. The Go tier—which is already available in India, France, and other countries—lets users send more messages and generate more images than the free version. OpenAI says users on its Plus, Pro, and Enterprise subscriptions will not see ads.

    https://www.wired.com/story/openai-testing-ads-us/

  26. Presumably this is intended to promote hatred because of the national origin of the target

    +++++
    You mean like Dutton and his African gangs?

  27. Thanks Sprocket, that would be quite the shake up in ACT politics, something it probably needs in some ways tbh

    It’ll be interesting to see if they can make it happen or not, the hardline Liberals could potentially take some convincing and the federal parties may push back

    See how it plays out

    Maybe they learnt the lessons from Tassie in that if you’re in a position to potentially form government, you should fully explore it

  28. Morning all, especially fellow Star Trek DS9 fans. I always thought that series got under rated. The plot lines are certainly relevant to the present day.

    HH thanks for the International roundup. This story is hard to miss.

    “ Trump says 8 European countries will face 10% tariff for opposing US control of Greenland:”
    https://apnews.com/article/denmark-greenland-us-trump-4ad99ea3975a8b62d37bd04961feda55

    The good news is that this suggests the recent military response of EU nations has been effective in deterring Trump from attacking Greenland.

    The bad news is that this suggests Trump actually wants Greenland. If this goes on it will split NATO. Extortion is not war, but its not the act of an ally either.

    I make no apology for saying again that the sooner Albo drops AUKUS, the sooner one of his sources of embarrassment ends. We should use the money to defend ourselves. Waiting to see if things get batter after Trump is weak and cowardly.

  29. C@tmomma @ 12 .50pm
    As an atheist, I always considered it strange that two fellas from Judea had a Spanish and a British name!

  30. Macca RB says:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 8:27 am
    C@tmomma @ 12 .50pm
    As an atheist, I always considered it strange that two fellas from Judea had a Spanish and a British name!

    And how people committed to being religious always pop up to explain it all away when you point it out.

  31. Flawlesssays:
    Sunday, January 18, 2026 at 8:15 am

    Peter Dutton has a reputation?

    A perfectly reasonable question!
    I suspect that the Liberal Party across Australia is as delusional and desperate as the Liberals response to the Bondi massacre has shown, the two drongos and their thought processes has shown and the failed “let’s get Albo” campaign has shown.
    The suggestion that the Canberra Liberals and Greens will begin to swap Christmas cards is in the same category.
    The financial exposure due the Tasmanian stadium is in the same category as is the attempt by the Liberals in Qld to turn back the fourth industrial revolution and restrict technological advances.
    Grasping Pauline and Barnaby’s hands will not result in long term reputational political panel beating nor will the cries for “all the way” with DJT.

  32. Sprocket- @ 2.21pm
    A positive move by the government.
    Splitting this legislation, with the support of the Greens Party may see stronger Firearm Legislation, across Australia.
    This, to me, was the vital part of this proposed legislation.
    The so-called anti-hate speech, thought crime provisions was never going to be practicable or enforceable and as many posters, with a greater legal facility than mine, have suggested that it could be contestable in the High Court.
    We, at both the State and Federal level, have sufficient “Anti” legislation to cover all the matters that this proposed Act, covers.
    A shrewd move by the Prime Minister and his Cabinet and it completely wedges the stupid bleating of the Coalition and their media allies.
    The Government can trash the Coalition, for not supporting anti-hate speech legislation, all the way to the next election.

  33. David Crowe (so many good points it’s hard to keep it to 10% but you gotta do what you gotta do):

    Trump may escalate the pressure, of course because he makes a point of being unpredictable. He is capricious by temperament, but also for a purpose. As his latest threat shows, he thinks he wins when he takes people by surprise.

    At this stage, however, the tough talk about Greenland uses the slow pressure of tariff threats and social media posts, not the fast and reckless option of a military deployment.

    This pressure is unlikely to work.

    Trump resorts to his usual bombast to convey the false impression of an immediate crisis. “World peace is at stake,” he declared. It is important to point out the obvious: there is no such crisis. Nothing is at risk if the US works with Greenland without annexation.

    There is more, of course. “This is a very dangerous situation for the Safety, Security and Survival of our Planet,” he said. Get real. The actual danger comes if he wrecks the NATO alliance with his territorial ambitions.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-four-reasons-trump-s-tariff-threats-won-t-hand-greenland-to-him-20260118-p5nutd.html

  34. Socrates,

    I make no apology for saying again that the sooner Albo drops AUKUS, the sooner one of his sources of embarrassment ends. We should use the money to defend ourselves. Waiting to see if things get batter after Trump is weak and cowardly.

    Not your greatest comment o’philosopher

  35. Imacca @ 3.26pm.
    Welcome to the “Macca Club”. I had the same experience on Friday morning.
    Rather than an infection, so far, it was two clogged ears, full of wax, as a result of my daily swimming regime.
    Foolishly, I used ear plugs – which had the effect of pushing said wax further down the ear canal.
    Second mistake, was to use Aqua Ear drops, which rather than cleansing the ear canal acted to solidify, rather than diluting, the wax.
    I attended our local, Erina EC Clinic, which is located, or has taken over, the medical practice which I have attended for over 15 years.
    My regular practitioner was booked out for the day, but within 10 minutes of my arrival I was treated by a duty doctor and the clinic nurse.
    Ears not completely flushed – but on a course of drops for 3 days and a return consultation with my regular GP and the nurse on Tuesday.
    Regular PB swimmers be cautious using Aqua Ear or similar drops to treat wax build ups – try using Wax Sol drops which dilute the wax rather than solidifying it.
    The EEC clinic is one of the better public health initiatives of this government, building on the great work of previous Labor Governments.

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