The first voting intention poll of the new year has been conducted by DemosAU for Capital Brief, and it offers the remarkable finding that One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition at 23% of the primary vote. The further surge to One Nation has also taken its toll on Labor, whose 29% is three points lower than in any published poll since the election. The Greens are on 12%, leaving 13% for “any other candidate”.
A two-party preferred result has Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 uses preferences flows from last year’s election, which means the 74.5-25.5 split of One Nation preferences in favour of the Coalition is doing exceptionally heavy lifting. The pollster further stirs the pot with a highly speculative Labor-versus-One Nation two-party result of 50-50, which applies Coalition preferences 83-17 in favour of One Nation based on the result in Hunter, splits Greens preferences 88-12 by assuming the same split as between Labor and the Coalition, and the rest 50-50.
Anthony Albanese’s performance is rated positively by 29%, neutrally by 30% and negatively by 41%, while the respective numbers for Sussan Ley are 17%, 55% and 28%. Albanese leads 42-29 on preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 1027 – based on the amount of weighting involved, the pollster estimates an effective sample size of 586 and a margin-of-error of 4%. Demographic breakdowns will be provided in a full report to be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.
davidwhsays:
Monday, January 12, 2026 at 10:49 pm
Entropy it’s not as simple as that. If Europe can produce an item at equal or better quality at the same or lesser price than the US supplied item then why aren’t they? If they are sourcing from the US then it’s likely they are getting something they want at an economic rational price.
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More to do with USA technology and not having to develop the technology yourself. Which was fine when USA was partner they could trust. It is getting less and less like that now. Possibly better developing their own technology and manufacturing in Europe. Ukraine drone technology is in some areas as good or even better than USA. This is an area I would start developing and putting money into first.
Entropy that is global economics. Basically it is comparative advantage in economics.
Entropy the European countries would probably be wise to look at increasing their own military production but it would likely come at a cost particularly in the short/medium term. Same for Australia.
You can’t leer or stare at someone who isn’t there.
Given the direction of some of these polls, it can’t be long until Jacinta Price contemplates jumping ship to ON.
C@t ”There’s no way the Coalition will be split in their vote for the Gun Reforms, so let them wear the opprobrium for not wanting gun reform after December 14.”
This will be about the 973rd time that the Country/National tail wagged the Coalition dog.
They should wear the oppropium, but the legacy media will be screaming at Labor for not splitting the bill. The SMAge will publish daily petitions of plumbers, manicurists and delivery drivers who want the bill to be split.
Douglas and Milko at 6.29 pm
“By the end of Feb 2025, I was steeling myself for PM Dutton.”
With respect, that sounds like the (perhaps apocryphal) Max Twain quote:
‘“I am an old man and have known a great many troubles, but most of them have never happened.”
― Mark Twain’
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/78239-i-am-an-old-man-and-have-known-a-great
Your methodology re what to expect when the scrutiny of a campaign arrived did not factor in a sufficient change from summer polling, based on a combination of most voters starting to notice an election was imminent, and Dutton facing the unfamiliarity of a press conference.
The shift occurred from around mid-February, according to Dr Bonham’s tracker:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-federal-election-pollster.html
As Scott pointed out umpteen times, the Lib primary was never high enough for government.
You Gov had the Lib primary at 39% in the silly season, and down to 37% by late February.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Australian_federal_election
When ProMo Morrison scraped home in the surprise of 2019 the Lib primary was 41.4%.
The other methodological error was not doing a seat run, i.e. assuming the electoral system was a form of PR. In that misleading counterfactual, the Teal seats weren’t a Lib millstone. Yet Dutton was all bluff and bluster, lacking details and bereft of any sensible electoral strategy.
He was so misguided that he did not see his seat as in danger, despite having a “very ordinary” historical record of campaigning (as they say in Victoria). Reportedly, Albo privately told a journo at the first debate (8 April) that he thought Labor had a good chance of gaining Dickson.
shellbell at 8.57 pm
“Greetings from Cape Leeuwin”.
Head E young man, to William Bay National Park, specifically Greens Pool, 15 km W of Denmark.
11.21 am
Re the topic du jour: the removal of the foreskin.
I once knew a retired doctor who did private circumcisions for $200, plus tips.
An oldie but a goodie.
Arky at 5.58, 6.05 and 8.39 pm
Your emphasis on domestic factors in the 2025 federal election applies even more to almost all Presidential elections in the US, at least since the US stopped being primarily isolationist, for the basic reason that the US electorate is even more parochial than the Australian one.
The one exception is the 1980 election loss by Carter, because of the hostage crisis in Tehran.
If Obama had been bolder in realising the expectations of the Nobel committee when they gave him their peace prize, based on a few aspirational statements by him, that would have been a very minor factor in the 2012 election.
The neo-conservative “surrendering US sovereignty to a foreign court” argument against the International Criminal Court is nonsense, as Obama (a lawyer like you) knows. US civilians who travel to foreign lands are usually subject to their laws, unless they are US soldiers who perpetrate serious crimes against women in Okinawa for example.
In a fundamental sense the ICC is no different. It simply establishes a fall-back mechanism for the prosecution of war crimes and crimes against humanity when the state of which the alleged offender is a citizen is unable to prosecute a crime grave enough to interest the ICC.
Sovereignty is a complex concept. See S. Krasner:
http://www.columbia.edu/itc/sipa/S6800/courseworks/sovereignty_krasner.pdf
Even J.H. Howard (Mr “We who decide etc”) was belatedly persuaded that Australia should join the ICC in 2002, within a year of falsely constructing asylum seekers as a threat to sovereignty.
As for waiting for Trump to cancel AUKUS, he won’t. His ideal is others pay the US for nothing.
Just what planet is Albo on…..
Extracts of the draft bill obtained by Guardian Australia show it will be illegal to publicly promote or incite hatred, or disseminate ideas of superiority or hatred towards of another person or group of people based on their race, colour, or national or ethnic origin.
But within the draft bill is a proposed legal defence to the rule that states the legislation does not apply to an individual directly quoting a religious text.
So it’s Ok to be a religious bigot … idiotic
Former prime minister Kevin Rudd will step down early as Australia’s ambassador to the US at the end of March, a year earlier than expected. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/kevin-rudd-stepping-down-as-ambassador-to-the-us-20260113-p5ntjp.html
Meanwhile Trump dementia symptoms are becoming more pronounced.
When are his evil posse going to deal with this reality?
Mind you Trump was a demented, diabolical, deranged, deviant even before his symptoms of actual dementia became an issue.
Kevin Rudd resigning one year earlier as Ambassador to USA.
Right when things are really heating up. Wonder why?
Kevin Rudd resigning one year earlier as Ambassador to USA. Right when things are really heating up. Wonder why?
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump posts picture of himself as ‘Acting President of Venezuela’: https://www.livemint.com/news/world/trump-posts-picture-of-himself-as-acting-president-of-venezuela-11768182741051.html
Russian air defence systems in Venezuela were not connected to radars during US operation: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/01/12/8015770/
Malaysia and Indonesia block Musk’s Grok over explicit deepfakes: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg7y10xm4x2o
UK developing ballistic missiles for Ukraine capable of striking deep inside Russia: https://kyivindependent.com/uk-developing-ballistic-missiles-for-ukraine-capable-of-striking-deep-within-russia/
Israeli police issues arrest warrant against former Netanyahu aide: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/israeli-police-issues-arrest-warrant-against-former-netanyahu-aide/
Sen. Kelly sues DOD Sec. Hegseth, says he was punished for ‘disfavored political speech’: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/kelly-hegseth-lawsuit-video-pentagon.html
Judge is asked for emergency hearing after Congress members blocked from ICE facility in Minneapolis: https://apnews.com/article/minneapolis-shooting-congress-visit-ice-6076e28eab9201d33e2140a593228e60
Republican Senator Calls for Investigation Into Donald Trump’s DOJ: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-jerome-powell-speech-doj-investigation-11347278
Trump ‘has committed 10 times more impeachable offenses’ in this term: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5684495-chris-murphy-donald-trump/
They Want You to “Quit Demonstrating”: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/01/trump-renee-good-ice-roger-williams-wesley-hunt-first-amendment/
Trump warns the nation is ‘SCREWED’ if the Supreme Court rejects his tariff plan: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-tariff-refunds-supreme-court-threat-b2899114.html
Thanks Holden for today’s reports
Anthony Albanese calls national day of mourning for Bondi victims on January 22: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-13/national-day-of-mourning-january-22-bondi-victims/106222976
New thread up.
Socrates says:
Monday, January 12, 2026 at 8:49 pm
Hack
“ Can we not build reactors? We do have ( a very small) one.”
No we can’t. Building up the cadre of skilled nuclear scientists, engineers and technicians plus specialist manufacturing facilities would take ten years.
10 years? Then we should start straight away.
We should wake up. The US has been captured by fascists. A similar political coup is evolving in the UK. France is not immune to a fascist victory. We absolutely cannot place our security in the hands of fascists.
Sceptic says:
Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 7:30 am
Just what planet is Albo on…..
The clerics always seem to negotiate a loophole. The proposed legislation should be amended.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, January 13, 2026 at 7:47 am
Kevin Rudd resigning one year earlier as Ambassador to USA.
Right when things are really heating up. Wonder why?
Because he has seen with his own eyes the evolving chaos – the illegalities, the megalomania – within the US Government. Rudd is not an idiot. He must know that Australia should break with the US rather than persist in the fraud that now passes for AU/US co-operation. The way here is being led by Canada. Rudd will be well aware of this. Even if the Australian Government is not yet ready to call time on the US relationship, Rudd clearly has decided it’s time to quit.
The way to help the resumption of Constitutional government in the US is to suspend the pretence that everything is normal in that country. Trumpocracy is fascist. It is time to call it for what it is and to dispel our illusions.
TPOF The Old Testament is only an issue if people take it all literally. Most, not all, have moved on from doing that. It was written in and for a time long in the past.
Davidwh,
Christianity had this thing in the 16th century where people came to the opinion that taking the Bible literally is the whole thing.
And that included the Old Testament, a document correctly described as the ‘Book of the Battles of Our Lord’.
The view “It was written in and for a time long in the past.” will find very little support among, for example, the Anglican diocese of Sydney.
So you can understand why these people object to quoting from scripture becoming a civil crime.