Federal polls: Essential Research and YouGov (open thread)

Two more pollsters find evidence of a surge to One Nation at the expense of an embattled Coalition.

Two new pollsters have just provided their first federal voting intention numbers since the election, one being Essential Research, which has Labor on 35%, the Coalition on 27% and the Greens on 11%, and goes further than any other pollster yet in having One Nation at 13% – together with an undecided component of 6%, so the numbers for each should be considered slightly higher in practice. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor leading the Coalition 51% to 44%, with the balance undecided. Leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese falling back to where he was pre-election, down five on approval over the past month to 44% and up three on disapproval to 46%, while Sussan Ley is down three on approval to 32% and up four on disapproval to 41%.

The poll also finds a four-point drop since last month in the view that the country is headed in the right direction to 34%, with wrong direction up three to 50%; 53% rating the immigration rate too high, 40% about right and 7% too low; 17% believing Australia should be more like the United States and 58% less; 39% rating the government’s 2035 emissions target too ambitious, 13% not ambitious enough and 48% about right; 34% supportive of Australia’s recognition of Palestine with 30% opposed (both unchanged on a month ago); and negative attitudes across the board to Donald Trump. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1001.

Amir Daftari of YouGov relates via X that the voting intention result from the pollster’s weekly omnibus survey had Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 27%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 12%, with Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred and Anthony Albanese leading Sussan Ley by 50% to 28% on preferred prime minister. Breakdowns by vote at the May election support the contention that the One Nation surge is coming largely at the expense of the Coalition. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1329.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,004 thoughts on “Federal polls: Essential Research and YouGov (open thread)”

Comments Page 18 of 21
1 17 18 19 21
  1. Welcome back daylight savings. As our little mister gets up at 5am every day no adjustments required in the household.

  2. #weatheronPB
    The magpie’s song floats,
    unerring in its mission,
    and into my dreams.

    Buoyed by the clean air,
    unhindered by the quiet,
    it finds me at peace.

  3. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Ukraine dismantles Russian assault on Lyman before it even begins, new artillery brigade turns river crossings into kill zones: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/04/frontline-report-2025-10-03/

    Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces strike Russian missile ship en route from Baltic to Caspian Sea: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/04/8001208/

    Ukraine confirms drone strike on one of Russia’s biggest, most modern oil refineries near St. Petersburg: https://kyivindependent.com/drones-hit-major-oil-refinery-in-russias-leningrad-region/

    Russia no longer exports but imports petrol and that’s our achievement: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/03/8001160

    Denmark reports systematic military provocations by Russian navy in its straits: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/04/8001180

    Tories pledge to remove 750,000 migrants under borders plan: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c708g5x2yqzo

    Israel agrees to Gaza withdrawal line, ceasefire will begin when Hamas confirms, Trump claims: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-869404

    Two million rally in Italy for Gaza as general strike halts key services: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/israel-hamas-war/article/two-million-rally-in-italy-for-gaza-as-general-strike-halts-key-services/

    Trump’s ICE Has Started Targeting Activists, Not Just Immigrants: https://truthout.org/articles/trumps-ice-turns-its-target-to-activists-not-just-immigrants/

    Federal agents shoot woman they say ‘boxed in’ authorities on Chicago’s Southwest Side: https://www.wbez.org/immigration/2025/10/04/federal-agents-shoot-woman-they-say-boxed-in-authorities-in-brighton-park

    Trump Goon Spills Bonkers Plan to Deploy 82nd Airborne to Blue City: https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-goon-spills-bonkers-plan-to-deploy-82nd-airborne-to-blue-city/

    University of Virginia students holding ‘antifascist’ ‘flag burning’ event to protest Trump order: https://www.foxnews.com/media/university-virginia-looking-flag-burning-tailgate-event-from-anti-fascist-group

    The FBI’s split with the Anti-Defamation League this week is the latest evidence that the Trump administration is moving away from targeting hate groups in favor of investigating what it deems left-wing violence: https://www.axios.com/2025/10/04/trump-fbi-kash-patel-adl

    S.C. confirms full-blown outbreak of measles: https://www.wrdw.com/2025/10/03/safety-alert-sc-confirms-full-blown-outbreak-measles/

    Israel accused of detaining Greta Thunberg in infested cell and making her hold flags: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/04/greta-thunberg-israel-gaza-sweden

  4. As I’ve said here before, I think that “globalist” is a right-wing swear word, like “socialist”, applied to anyone or anything they don’t like.

  5. Cartoon Time!

    Simon Letch

    Matt Golding

    Alan Moir

    Cathy Wilcox

    First Dog On the Moon
    Dear computer boffins please stop trying to fix problems I don’t have

    Fiona Katauskas
    Is Trump producing the most popular reality TV show on Earth?

    The train journey from hell: the Edith Pritchett cartoon

    Schot

    Marco De Angelis

    Joep Bertrams

    Christo Komarnitski

    Malcolm McGookin

    Paul Duginski

    Mrs. Betty Bowers‬ ‪@mrsbettybowers.bsky.social‬
    The obscene face of Christian Nationalism: outlandish untaxed wealth in defiance of Jesus. Oh, and this time, slave laborers, too! Glory!
    Just remember, for any money you give to Heaven, there is always a 100% handling fee here on Earth.

  6. More than 100 guns have been seized by Western Australian police in raids on so-called “sovereign citizens” in an operation sparked by the shooting deaths of two Victorian officers. Gun owners known for espousing sovereign-citizen ideology were targeted in the five-day operation last week across metropolitan and regional WA.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/western-australia/more-than-100-guns-seized-in-police-raids-on-sovereign-citizens-20250930-p5mz2e.html

  7. Andrew_Earlwood @ #836 Saturday, October 4th, 2025 – 10:30 pm

    So, I’m back in my accommodation in Tarifa, having made landfall at Ceres 3:42 hours after touching the rocks at the entrance to tarifa harbour – a distance of 15.7km according to my Garmin. Perfect conditions. The water was crystal clear, cold at the beginning and end – the Atlantic current – and warm in the middle – the Mediterranean. Incredible views as the air was also perfectly clear for the first half. The sea traffic is astonishing:- seeing container ships – many larger than the largest aircraft carrier – bear down on you at speed, only to give way to our little flotilla seemingly at the last moment, is certainly an experience!

    I was tracking you for a good while. Huge effort from someone that was a junior and masters swimmer but could never handle open water.

  8. At least some in the Liberal Party don’t think Leach is the answer to their woes – they’re right!

    “If Freya is the answer, we are asking the wrong question,” one long-term Liberal operative said.

    “The party and the base gravitate towards her because she is the only young person who tells them that the party doesn’t have to change. She continues to provide validation to the views held in the party which have repeatedly demonstrated through multiple election reviews are the cause of the collapse in the primary vote.”

    The Liberals are not only losing ground on their primary vote, but they are also losing women voters. A Resolve Political Monitor survey for this masthead reveals that the Coalition has lost five points on their primary vote among women since 2022. The Liberals have identified that women aged 35 to 54 as the demographic that has deserted the party in droves.

    Leach campaigned alongside another darling of the conservatives during the Voice campaign, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, calling the Northern Territory senator “the Queen” and this month Leach will headline a Liberal fundraiser on Sydney’s northern beaches, once the party’s heartland until the teal takeover.

    The theme is “wokeness in education, and the best ways to counter its influence” and Leach will be joined by academic Kevin Donnelly, who describes himself as one of “Australia’s leading conservative public intellectuals and cultural warriors”.

    The organiser of the fundraiser, Kieran Morris, was contacted for comment but did not respond. A Liberal Party spokesman confirmed the fundraiser was still going ahead, despite the controversy involving Leach’s ill-fated Sky interview.

    Leach, who ran unsuccessfully for the Liberals in the NSW seat of Balmain in 2023, is married to Young Liberal president Cooper Gannon. Gannon works for upper house MP Chris Rath, a powerbroker in the moderate faction.

    A senior Liberal Party member did not want to criticise Leach personally, but took a swipe at the party’s promotion of her ideas. “Dutton promoted a cast of characters who were focused on ideological culture wars,” the Liberal, who requested anonymity to speak freely, said. “It was not a winning strategy.

    “We need to be talking about the things that actually matter to families like growing wages, housing affordability, cost of healthcare and access to quality childcare and schools.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/if-freya-is-the-answer-we-are-asking-the-wrong-question-20251002-p5mzku.html

  9. The highest ever battery discharge occurred yesterday evening, with a roughly equal contribution from each of the four mainland NEM states:
    https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.battery_discharging.power.interval.high?datetime=2025-10-04T18_15_00&offset=10_00&focus=1759565700000

    NSW’s coal generation inched a little lower:
    https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.nsw1.coal.power.interval.low?datetime=2025-10-04T10_45_00&offset=10_00&focus=1759538700000

    Back in the day, Victoria almost went nuclear:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQqP7pxZqQk

  10. I’m sure this story is repeated a multitude of times across our country.

    The talent pool in Hobart (lets call it a regional city rather than a capital) of staff capable of operating in a complex administrative organisation like the one I work at is quite shallow. Interview panel after interview panel I’m always surprised and a little disappointed at the applications.

    A year ago I had a small fractional job for an entry level role. A Bhutanese lady applied and I employed her, the other applicants just didn’t cut the mustard.

    She did this role for 6 months, and performed well, a full time vacancy came up at the same level and I directly appointed her into it.

    Fast foward another 6 months and a junior leadership role opened up. Once more the applicant pool was poor and she was the best person for the role.

    She’s now running a satellite part of my organisation. A complex place with many difficult stakeholders. Her wage is $100k, she supports her kids here in Hobart. Her role back in Bhutan was running the business and economics faculty of the largest university in Bhutan.

    I’d rather employ someone talented, dedicated, and hard working from overseas than settle for substandard people locally.

  11. Two more Liberal MPs are calling for the Coalition to have the “guts” to walk away from the “economically catastrophic” policy of Net Zero emissions by 2050. Speaking to The Sunday Telegraph, backbenchers Ben Small and Henry Pike say it’s time for the Coalition to pick a fight with Labor by formally opposing the Albanese government’s commitment to Net Zero.
    Small and Pike – who hold their seats in Western Australia and Queensland on slim margins – join conservative Liberals Andrew Hastie, Jacinta Price, Tony Pasin, Alex Antic and Garth Hamilton in forcefully speaking out on the issue.
    While both MPs previously voiced support for the Morrison government’s commitment to reach Net Zero emissions, their intervention will likely stir tensions within the Coalition, which is undertaking a review of its energy policy led by Opposition energy spokesman Dan Tehan. Warning the consequences of Net Zero would be “economically catastrophic”, Mr Small drew a parallel between picking a fight on the policy and the Liberal Party’s campaigns against the carbon tax and Voice to Parliament.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/nsw/economically-catastrophic-more-liberal-mps-call-for-coalition-to-ditch-net-zero/news-story/a673b887dae7797965616f86b20fc88f

  12. The theme is “wokeness in education, and the best ways to counter its influence” and Leach will be joined by academic Kevin Donnelly, who describes himself as one of “Australia’s leading conservative public intellectuals and cultural warriors”.

    It’s not ‘wokeness’, you bunch of Cro Magnon Conservative numpties! It’s an enlightened way of thinking, acting and teaching our children!

  13. Ahhhh yes globalists first locals second but what is happening is locals marginalised do not spend for years now in Australia and elsewhere so unless you get global income your company will not make much from locals.
    The amount of people from overseas Temp visa etc here that are not working in the area they are qualified in and came here for is massive also displacing locals .

    The progressive left aka fed labor gov more interested in Gaza/China than Aussies!

    The welfare bill is massive in Australia and the fed labor government has in its budget 10 years of deficits coming so not employing marginal Aussies via immigration has lots of costs including crime etc.

    Labor Minister Tony Bourke welcomes Gaza citzs at the airport!

  14. Warning the consequences of Net Zero would be “economically catastrophic”, Mr Small…

    Instead of just using hyper-emotive buzzwords, could Mr Small provide some, um, actual evidence for this statement?

    Mr Small drew a parallel between picking a fight on the policy and the Liberal Party’s campaigns against the carbon tax and Voice to Parliament.

    Ah, pining for the glory days of Abbott.

    I think the Australian people have woken up to that scam though.

  15. The progressive left aka fed labor gov more interested in Gaza/China than Aussies!

    Absolute crap. As per usual. With zero proof. Also, as per usual.

  16. The consequences of Net Zero would be “economically catastrophic” at a personal level if you are owned by and have a stake in the activities of Mining Firms.

  17. Mostly Interested,
    Kudos to you! <3

    Imagine if it was mandated that you had to employ someone, like pied piper for example, simply because they were a WASP!?!

    Sadly, it's looking like that's the way America is going.

  18. Mostly Interested you accidentally left off “…at the $100k price point” from the end of several of your sentences.

  19. The moderate and centre right Liberal factions continue to whinge off the record, while the Nats and conservatives take the lead by saying stupid things on the record.

    The media also need to do better. Net zero is an outcome, not a policy. If a politician starts banging on about net zero, journalists should be asking about which policy they object to.

  20. ‘Populist billionaire and Trump supporter Babis cruises to Czech election win

    Billionaire Andrej Babis’s ANO party cruised to victory in the Czech Republic’s parliamentary election on Saturday, raising the prospect of a government that would boost Europe’s populist, anti-immigration camp and reduce support for Ukraine.

    An ebullient Babis told supporters that ANO would seek a one-party cabinet but would talk with two small parties – including the far-right SPD – for support as his party will lack an outright majority.

    He again rejected accusations that his win would make the central European nation a less reliable European Union and NATO partner.’

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/04/europe/czech-parliamentary-election-babis-ukraine-latam-intl

  21. Morning all. Thanks for the International roundup HH and Cat for the cartoons.

    Of late my own attitude to technology (or at least IT) is close to that expressed by the First Dog in the Moon. In practical terms we seem to be going backwards in IT. So much software is released as bloatware, not debugged, manuals are a thing of the past, and actual productivity improvements are scarce. I also hate Adobe and its pricing practices. Consumer regulations go unenforced.

  22. Ukraine have made excellent use of drones targeting energy sites in Russia.

    As the saying goes, Russia is a glorified petrol station. Now they have to import the stuff.

    Good times

  23. ‘NSW Court of Appeal Justice Dina Yehia awarded strip search class action lead plaintiff Raya Meredith $93,000 on Tuesday, while lawyers estimate her more than 3,000 co-plaintiffs could be awarded “potentially millions”, which will be the final outcome of a case that was the product of the NSW police shift towards excessively strip searching the public at ever-increasing rates in the late 2010s.

    Run by the Redfern Legal Centre and law firm Slater and Gordon, the strip search case was the largest class action ever run against an Australian police force, and it served to draw attention to the situation that involved, as Slater and Gordon associate William Zerno put it, the “industrial scale” strip searching of young people at festivals late last decade, with many subjects merely teens.

    Justice Yehia is yet to release her findings or make the final determinations on damages and costings, but she was clear on delivering the outcome for Meredith on 30 September 2025, that there was a lack of training, education and supervision provided to the armed NSW police officers who were charged with ordering civilians to strip down in front of them on the off-chance they’d find drugs.

    Zerno added that the likely outcome of the ruling will be that thousands of past strip searches that were the subject of the case – those occurring at festivals from 2016 to time of case lodgement the 21 July 2022 – will now be rendered illegal. Some of the worst cases Sydney Criminal Lawyers recalls involved officers touching teen genitals and young people made to partially disrobe in public.

    The successful outcome to the strip search class action, while not unexpected, does provide the opportunity for NSW to bring this “shameful episode” to a close. However, the understanding is that after the brief hiatus to the NSW police mass strip search initiative was brought to an end by the COVID pandemic, it’s understood NSW police are back to degrading and traumatising civilians.’

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/strip-search-class-action-confirms-numerous-nsw-police-strip-searches-illegal/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-41

    This was a shocking example of NSW police acting ultra vires. And while it’s only right that those affected will be compensated, what disciplinary action has been taken against the police who exceeded their authority?

  24. Every day I wait with anticipation for the house of cards that is the US administration .

    And every day the shit show gets worse. Surely the time is now.

    Sigh…….

  25. C@t posted

    It’s not ‘wokeness’, you bunch of Cro Magnon Conservative numpties! It’s an enlightened way of thinking, acting and teaching our children!

    It’s certainly a new way of teaching our children. Whether it is enlightened or not remains to be seen.


  26. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 8:39 am
    I’m sure this story is repeated a multitude of times across our country.

    The talent pool in Hobart (lets call it a regional city rather than a capital) of staff capable of operating in a complex administrative organisation like the one I work at is quite shallow. Interview panel after interview panel I’m always surprised and a little disappointed at the applications.

    A year ago I had a small fractional job for an entry level role. A Bhutanese lady applied and I employed her, the other applicants just didn’t cut the mustard.

    She did this role for 6 months, and performed well, a full time vacancy came up at the same level and I directly appointed her into it.

    Fast foward another 6 months and a junior leadership role opened up. Once more the applicant pool was poor and she was the best person for the role.

    She’s now running a satellite part of my organisation. A complex place with many difficult stakeholders. Her wage is $100k, she supports her kids here in Hobart. Her role back in Bhutan was running the business and economics faculty of the largest university in Bhutan.

    I’d rather employ someone talented, dedicated, and hard working from overseas than settle for substandard people locally.

    MI
    Shhh! Don’t say the quiet part loud.

  27. Bystander says:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 10:27 am
    C@t posted

    It’s not ‘wokeness’, you bunch of Cro Magnon Conservative numpties! It’s an enlightened way of thinking, acting and teaching our children!

    It’s certainly a new way of teaching our children. Whether it is enlightened or not remains to be seen.

    I meant, what they call ‘wokeness’ I call ‘an enlightened way of acting, thinking and teaching our children’.

  28. MI

    “ I’d rather employ someone talented, dedicated, and hard working from overseas than settle for substandard people locally.”

    There are parallel problems in engineering. A lot of locally born students have not done the units of physics and advanced maths at high school level to enter an engineering degree. A much higher proportion of the Asian born kids (especially from Korea and India) have. So we can train the latter group to be engineers. The others we can’t.

  29. Mostly Interested

    “ I’d rather employ someone talented, dedicated, and hard working from overseas than settle for substandard people locally.”
    —————-
    Haha …. The perpetual laments of the ruling class:

    1. These days One just can’t get “good staff”; and

    2. One is condemned to live amongst “substandard people”.

    Will no one recognise One’s appalling underprivilege!!

  30. ‘A federal judge in Oregon has granted a temporary restraining order blocking the Trump administration from deploying the National Guard into Portland after the president announced he would send in troops to protect what he calls a “war-ravaged” city.

    The ruling by the Trump-nominated judge marks the latest setback to White House efforts to crack down on Democratic-led cities it claims are stricken by crime and disorder, often in part by citing the need to protect ICE facilities from riotous protesters.

    The temporary restraining order expires in 14 days on October 18, US District Judge Karin Immergut, a Trump nominee, wrote in her order Saturday.

    The Trump administration has been pointing to renewed unrest in both Chicago and Portland to justify a deployment of federal troops to the two Democrat-led cities, seizing on new rounds of protests and the recent arrest of a conservative influencer.’

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/04/us/what-we-know-portland-chicago-national-guard-deployments

    Trump will appeal the decision, and if he doesn’t get the decision he wants, the matter will be fast-tracked to the US Supreme Court, where his cronies will approve the deployment of the National Guard to Portland.

  31. As the saying goes, Russia is a glorified petrol station. Now they have to import the stuff.
    ————————————————————–
    It will be short term unless they keep it up. And Russia will find measures to counter this threat. Ukraine wont rest on their small wins. Europe mustn’t either.

  32. Trump will appeal the decision, and if he doesn’t get the decision he wants, the matter will be fast-tracked to the US Supreme Court, where his cronies will approve the deployment of the National Guard to Portland.
    ——————————————–
    There is a silver lining. SCOTUS, in their dubious use of emergency dockets on significant constitutional matters, are basically asking to be expanded with other major reforms to make it more efficient (and less partisan).

  33. Liberal frontbencher Melissa McIntosh has acknowledged the “dismal state” of the Coalition, but has defended Sussan Ley’s leadership following the exit of high-profile WA MP Andrew Hastie from the front bench. Mr Hastie announced he would resign from the front bench after the Opposition Leader confirmed in a series of charter letters that he would not oversee immigration as the former Coalition spokesman for Home Affairs, with those matters set to be overseen by immigration spokesman Paul Scarr.
    Ms McIntosh, the Coalition’s communications spokeswoman, continued to back in Ms Ley and her “collaborative” leadership, and watered down the public party infighting and disharmony during what she said was a “really tough” time for the party.
    “(Ms Ley has) come in at a very tough time. We’re really scraping the bottom, aren’t we?” she told Sky on Sunday.
    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/liberal-frontbencher-melissa-mcintosh-says-party-disharmony-expected-after-the-coalition-left-in-a-dismal-state/news-story/30bfabebb2256972883582d28a3e6c3a

  34. Freya Leach got sacked from her Sky after dark program because her program was too right wing and when she ran for the Liberal party in the last NSW state election she received 19% of the vote which was even lower than the Liberal party received at the previous election.
    Freya Leach is totally out of touch with 21st century voters and will probably end up like the last female sacked from Sky TV Erin Molan who is now fronting a little watched extreme right wing US based program called “69 minutes”.

  35. All I hear is the grievances of the right, why won’t anyone give the talent free people a job? They’re almost communist in their view points.

  36. It was mentioned on Insiders that Jane Hume may be returning to the frontbench to replace Andrew Hastie. It would likely be a mini reshuffle, and she wouldn’t be taking Hastie’s shadow Home Affairs portfolio. It’s probably a combination of how little talent there is in caucus and securing the numbers for Sussan Ley, why Hume is returning. Hume voted for Angus Taylor in the original leadership ballot. I doubt she will be returning to finance or anything workplace-related, though.

  37. Political Nightwatchman,
    Jane Hume
    Bridget McKenzie

    A 2-headed hydra of those two would send shivers 😉

    Fixed it I see. 😉

  38. Diogenes says:
    Sunday, October 5, 2025 at 11:51 am
    It’s amazing how similar the problems of Federal Libs and SA Libs are. Apart from the cocaine conviction.

    There’s a common denominator. Alex Antic

  39. Mostly Interested:
    All I hear is the grievances of the right, why won’t anyone give the talent free people a job?

    Speaking from my own perspective, I am weary of high school drop-outs who were ‘too cool for school’ who now complain bitterly that immigrants are taking “their” jobs.

  40. Hastie playing the ‘divide and conquer’ approach to eventually seize the leadership.

    It’s been the favoured approach by most Lib and Labor leadership aspirants across state and federal politics for the last 20yrs.

Comments Page 18 of 21
1 17 18 19 21

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *