Federal polls: Essential Research and YouGov (open thread)

Two more pollsters find evidence of a surge to One Nation at the expense of an embattled Coalition.

Two new pollsters have just provided their first federal voting intention numbers since the election, one being Essential Research, which has Labor on 35%, the Coalition on 27% and the Greens on 11%, and goes further than any other pollster yet in having One Nation at 13% – together with an undecided component of 6%, so the numbers for each should be considered slightly higher in practice. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor leading the Coalition 51% to 44%, with the balance undecided. Leadership ratings have Anthony Albanese falling back to where he was pre-election, down five on approval over the past month to 44% and up three on disapproval to 46%, while Sussan Ley is down three on approval to 32% and up four on disapproval to 41%.

The poll also finds a four-point drop since last month in the view that the country is headed in the right direction to 34%, with wrong direction up three to 50%; 53% rating the immigration rate too high, 40% about right and 7% too low; 17% believing Australia should be more like the United States and 58% less; 39% rating the government’s 2035 emissions target too ambitious, 13% not ambitious enough and 48% about right; 34% supportive of Australia’s recognition of Palestine with 30% opposed (both unchanged on a month ago); and negative attitudes across the board to Donald Trump. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1001.

Amir Daftari of YouGov relates via X that the voting intention result from the pollster’s weekly omnibus survey had Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 27%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 12%, with Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred and Anthony Albanese leading Sussan Ley by 50% to 28% on preferred prime minister. Breakdowns by vote at the May election support the contention that the One Nation surge is coming largely at the expense of the Coalition. The poll was conducted Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 1329.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,004 thoughts on “Federal polls: Essential Research and YouGov (open thread)”

Comments Page 14 of 21
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  2. The social contract is destroyed by the fed and state Labor governments population Ponzi globalist scheme that has created massive rent and prop price increases and homelessness.

  3. At least on the face of it, the politicalisation of the D of J continues unabated. Garcia has been targeted because of the embarrassment he has caused Trump & his lackies:

    ‘A federal judge says he believes the immigrant defendant Kilmar Abrego Garcia, whom the administration wrongly sent to El Salvador, may have been targeted with a criminal charge by the Justice Department this year out of vindictiveness.

    “The Government had a significant stake in retaliating against Abrego’s success” suing the Trump administration after his wrongful removal to El Salvador in March, Judge Waverly Crenshaw Jr. of the Middle District of Tennessee wrote on Friday. “The Court finds Abrego has sufficiently presented some evidence that the Government had a stake in retaliating against him for exercising his rights in the Maryland suit and deterring him from continuing to exercise those rights.”

    The finding sets up another round of court proceedings where Abrego Garcia’s lawyers will be able to dig into the Justice Department’s decision-making this year. They are attempting to have two criminal charges he faces in the Tennessee federal court dismissed and seek evidence that may show the Trump administration’s approach has been improper.’

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/03/politics/kilmar-abrego-garcia-judge-rules-vindictive

  4. TK and Newy

    I also dip into Times Radio every so often, and find it only really useful when they have top drawer guests – like today with Kurt Volker https://youtu.be/TVjPa3AACH0?si=NwD1xMPApqSWWB1w

    My goto sites for Ukraine news are mostly on Telegram, which I can recommend for unfiltered commentary from both sides. As per the maxim, the first casualty in war is truth, so viewer discretion applies. On the Ukrainian side, Noel Reports, Denys Davydov and RFU News are good news aggregators – whilst on the Russian side, Rybar in English.

    My own view is that Putin has fucked his own country, his armed forces, his legacy and obviously the people and cities of Ukraine – through his delusional megalomania. And strengthened NATO to boot. Why the country with the biggest landmass on the planet would need or want more is beyond me.

    As for how it ends, most likely Putin and his core team of yes men are removed – how and when remains to be seen.

  5. Kos Samaras nails it here:-
    The progressive vote grew after the immigration rallies. So why is Ley being targeted because she is rejecting such policy ideas?
    Our post-immigration rally polling revealed that, so did many other polls. The only demographic shift tracked older voters moving from the Coalition to One Nation. Older voters living in the regions.
    Younger voters didn’t follow. They moved further away. Hence, 87% of Gen Z women do not support the Coalition, no matter where they live.
    This matters because it exposes what’s driving the challenge to Sussan Ley. It isn’t about electoral strategy. The politics targeting her has no relationship to winning elections. It’s about control over a shrinking space, the increasingly isolated corner where echo-chamber nationalists reside, a world dominated by bots, and fake online accounts, providing a false impression of support that looks more like a night at the pokies, flashing lights, manufactured excitement, and the certainty of a win that actually never materialises.
    Ley is being destabilized not because she’s ineffective, but because she refuses to validate politics that empirically repel the electorate the Coalition needs. The data is unambiguous: divisive policy doesn’t expand the Coalition’s voter base. It shrinks it.

  6. Orban is an arsehole:

    “Ukraine is a country with a very difficult fate. Why should we share in this difficult fate? We have our own fate, which is much easier than that of the Ukrainians,” Orban said in an interview with state-run Kossuth Radio.

    Orban argued that EU membership would force Hungary to assume Ukraine’s burdens, including the war with Russia.

    “If you are in a federal system with someone and they are attacked, you have to send soldiers. And we do not want that for our young people. We do not want to die for Ukraine,” Orban said.

    https://kyivindependent.com/we-dont-want-to-share-their-fate-orban-says-ukraine-membership-would-drag-eu-into-war-with-russia/

    There you have it. He said it. He’s happy for Hungarians to die for fellow EU members, like Slovaks, Czechs, Romanians, Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, and Finns. But he’s not happy for Hungarians to die for Ukrainians. Tell me this is not targeted hatred towards Ukrainians.

    He himself admits Hungary’s position is much easier than Ukraine’s. But he acts without any mercy towards Ukraine, but rather never ceases to complain about them.

    Orban acts as a 100% enemy towards Ukrainians.

  7. The other difficult issue in care are those who need residential care but are under the age limit for the aged care program. This is where NDIS was seen as the solution but its failure is worthy of a royal commission.

    The most difficult group are violent, young adults with high level autism. The places able and available for these patients are extremely limited.

  8. Sprocket_, Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 12:58 pm:
    ————————-

    Moscow Times is also a good non-Kremlin-aligned Russian source, which I use. They are barred from Russia itself as a so-called ‘agent of foreign influence’, and so they now operate, since 2022, out of The Netherlands, but their provenance is from Moscow since 1992.

  10. laughtong says:
    Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 12:43 pm
    meher baba @ #644 Saturday, October 4th, 2025 – 12:37 pm

    “There are plenty of specialised dementia units in aged care in Tassie, some public and some private. They’re of variable quality, but they exist. I visited quite a few looking for somewhere to take care of my Mum in her final months. Funding doesn’t seem to be a particular problem.”

    While not affected by dementia I have a little skin in this game atm.
    I am in hospital for the 2nd time this year with pneumonia.
    I have a nursing home for respite, but not until Friday.
    They will probably keep me here in a single room until then.

    ________

    Sorry to hear laughtong and get well soon.

  11. UN ‘peacekeepers’ w we re supposed to prevent Heshbollah from militarizing southern Lebanon. They failed so to so badly that UN camps and the like were so adjacent to Heshbollah positions that it was inevitable that they were caught in various crossfires. Ditto civilians among whom Heshbollah had thoughtfully emplaced themselves. Did Israel show restraint? It all depended. Some commu cities in southern Lebanon have a visceral hatred of Heshbollah.

  12. ”
    TPOFsays:
    Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 11:02 am
    Ven: But about 2/3 Jewish people now unfortunately turned against ALP

    ————————-

    Source?
    ”

    Will provide

  16. pied piper says:
    Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 12:50 pm
    The social contract is destroyed by the fed and state Labor governments population Ponzi globalist scheme that has created massive rent and prop price increases and homelessness.

    Absolute crap.

    This isn’t facebook, pp.

  18. Hastie ran in this year’s election as Not-a-Lib. He’s now running for LOTO as Not-a-Lib. He is dissociating himself from Orthodox Reaction. Wow. What could possibly motivate any Lib to support him? Perhaps they have lost confidence in the Menzies Brand…like everyone else.

  19. The most difficult group are violent, young adults with high level autism. The places able and available for these patients are extremely limited.

    They are a problem. My son has been attacked twice already. He ended up in hospital on one occasion.

  21. Article from The Guardian about the preselection saga in the Victorian Liberals.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/oct/04/victorian-liberal-party-reselections-unusual-step-extending-deadline-search-for-future-mps

    When the Victorian Liberal party’s state executive met last Thursday, just days before preselections closed in seats held by four retiring MPs, they looked at the list of candidates before them, underwhelmed.

    “The view was, ‘yeah, nah’,” said one Liberal source, who requested anonymity to discuss internal party matters.

    Another Liberal was more blunt. Some of those who had put their names up, they said, were “party hacks” and people who, because they had been around for years, felt “entitled to a seat in parliament”.

    Even though nominations weren’t due to close for another five days, the executive took the unusual step of leaving them open indefinitely to allow for more candidates to come forward.

    Preselections – an internal process all parties undertake to determine who gets to represent them on the ballot at the November 2026 state election – are usually a formality in held seats. In the Liberal party, incumbents may occasionally face a challenge but the serious jostling is usually reserved for the upper house seats, which don’t open until the start of next year.

  22. Hey laughtong, I know from experience that pneumonia is no laughing matter. I wish you a full, speedy recovery and for you to be as comfortable as possible in the meantime.

  24. Fastwheels – Those figures by generation are quite interesting. The Liberals/National message is only resonating with the older generation and is quite masculine too. You can’t win an election with only the retired or soon to be retired. A reasonably large percentage of those voters will not be voting at the next election (2 to 3 percent die each year).

    Amazing different in the male and female vote for the Greens too. Their appeal to young females is twice that of male.

  25. pied piper says:
    Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 12:50 pm

    The social contract is destroyed

    The Reactionaries have never subscribed to the idea of a social contract. They are intent on destroying the social estate and will tell any lie, break any law to do it.

    The fundamental facts about our demography are:

    Our endogenous birth rate is well below replacement level. Without immigration our population will certainly fall.

    We do not have “mass immigration”. It is, in fact, relatively difficult to migrate to Australia. This is a very grave mistake on our part. Population decline is entrenched in nearly all affluent countries, including in this one. We should be actively recruiting migrants from all parts of the world. People are our greatest natural resource and we should welcome them here. The more, the better. They more variety, the better. The very last thing we should do to isolate ourselves and die off together. This is not Easter Island.

    Australia’s total fertility rate (TFR) is at an all-time low of 1.50 births per woman as of 2023, a significant drop from 1.93 in 2012 and well below the replacement level of 2.1.

  27. Fastwheels says:
    Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 1:02 pm

    The Reactionaries have forgotten that they need voters more than voters need them. They campaign to each other, as if the electorate doesn’t exist or, if it does exist, its affiliations do not matter. In this respect they remind us of our latter-day Trots, the Greens, the defunct CPA and of the S_L of the 1970s.

    The Reactionaries deserve electoral obliteration. This surely awaits them

  28. PP likes to take headlines, often from the West Australian, that suggest a certain business activity is improving and give old Chumpy the credit, or if the opposite is the case, blaim the ALP Government.

    He/She seems to have missed this West Australian article.

    “Technology, healthcare help drive ASX 200 higher despite President Trump threat”.

  29. In my immediate family tree – my own children and those of my siblings – there are 6 women of child-bearing age living in this country. Between them they have had 9 children. So their fertility rate is 1.50….spot on to the national average. The oldest of the children is 8. They are absolutely representative of families I know.

    They are also very broadly politically representative of the female electorate. They despise the Reactionaries and all who sail with them.

    Ley has her work cut out trying to hold on to the slim share of the electorate that still subscribe to the rapidly-wasting Menzies Brand.

  30. Thanks for all the good wishes.
    I am doing well with the pneumonia under control and the virus almost beaten.
    I keep getting different stories on that.
    The good thing is that I now have my ACAT but sadly my little hearing dog will be retired. My sister in law should take him after a quick trip.

  33. “Birth rate” is an incredibly disingenuous issue for right- or left- wing weirdos to bitch about.

    There are no combination of preferred headline policies that either side champion that increases it – in all circumstances, higher GDP per capita trends with lower birth rate regardless of surrounding policies.

    – Vienna and Singapore with their “glorious revolution” public housing have birth rates near or below 1.
    – The USA with its McMansions has seen the rate fall every year over the past 20 years.

    It is a bad faith issue to politicize. Below is a good vid on the global trends.

    https://youtu.be/ispyUPqqL1c

  35. “Mass Migration” is such an open ended term. We don’t have an open door policy where absolutely anyone can come in. Nor do we have a closed door policy where nobody comes in.

    The latest net Migration figure was 315,900 in the 12 months to the end of March 2025. What level is not considered “mass migration”? Is 200k? 100k? Are we also emigrating the right skill sets?

    There is plenty of room for a sensible debate about migration. But anyone using the term “mass migration” is not serious and using typical nativist tactics. These won’t work when a huge chunk of the electorate are either migrants, children of migrants, in relationships with migrants or have family members who are.

  36. I don’t think Trumps policies will help the US economy, but the loss of one plant valued at 143 million is less than consequential.

  37. nath – That is true. But the message that it sends to other foreign investors is hardly encouraging. Especially, when one of his key policies is returning manufacturing to America.

  38. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 3:21 pm
    nath – That is true. But the message that it sends to other foreign investors is hardly encouraging. Especially, when one of his key policies is returning manufacturing to America.
    _______________________________
    The trade deal the US did with Japan will see 500 billion invested in the US. Mars recently announced a 2 billion plant investment. There are plenty of announcements from companies. None of this means a whole lot, although if the Japanese investment actually goes ahead that would be somewhat significant.

  40. Fastwheelssays:
    Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 3:30 pm
    Nath it would be consequential enough for the Heywood County in Tennessee where it would have been built.
    ______________
    Your concern for Heywood County is commendable.

  43. Nath it is probably a typical hillbilly county full of gun carrying, red MAGA hat wearing Chump supporters, so my concern was probably misplaced.

  45. MI at 3.55pm.

    “I fully expect Trump to be nominated for the 2026 Nobel peace prize.”

    I’m pretty sure he was nominated by a few ratbags for the 2025 peace prize as well. I can’t wait for the reaction when he misses out, especially if the recipient is not caucasian.

  46. 2.1 million non residents with work rights are in Australia and a massive number are international students and labor will not boot them when their appeals fail.

    Watch Gen Z etc swing away from labor when the penny drops that labor has priced them out of ever buying a house but a shoebox unit and not use their super for a deposit.

    Obama won a Nobel prize because he was woke.

    77 million plus voted for Trump!

    Massive investment into the United States now!

  48. lol cope harder pp, today is just a day of living under ALP 94 for you buddy, but guess what – I’ll see you tomorrow for another episode of “ALP governs Australia with historic majority while PP desperately smashes the hopium pipe and cries like a pathetic loser”. Catch ya.

  49. Birth rates are political because they have profound resource implications. Some impacts are generational. Others are quick. Thousands of preschools are closing in China for example.

  50. Controversial former Labor leader Mark Latham has been escorted by police from a members-only restaurant at Royal Randwick Racecourse. In a photo obtained by the Daily Telegraph, Latham is seen leaving the Grand View Restaurant flanked by two police officers about 1.45pm on Saturday.
    It’s understood the 64-year-old politician was allegedly asked to leave by management, who then contacted police. The Grand View restaurant is managed by the Australian Turf Club (ATC), who had previously issued Latham with a suspended sentence.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15161365/Mark-Latham-escorted-police-Grand-View-restaurant-Royal-Randwick-Racecourse.html

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