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Click here for full display of Kiama by-election results
End of evening. Labor has comfortably won the Kiama by-election with what I’m projecting to be 59.2% of the two-party vote. This pushes Labor to 46 seats out of 93 in the Legislative Assembly, such that the government will now rely on the support of one independent rather than two. It will be noted that the two-party swing is nonetheless a seemingly healthy 10.8% in favour of the Liberals, but this is somewhat deceptive: far more ballots had Labor higher than Liberal at the 2023 election because much of the conservative vote had gone to Gareth Ward, and as with all voters in New South Wales, a good proportion of these would have given him a first preference and left it at that. It may be more instructive to compare the result with the result with Ward’s 8.7% margin as a Liberal on the same boundaries in 2019, such that this can be seen as a Labor swing of around 18% off that base.
8.57pm. The big Albion Park early voting centre is the first such to report, with 7771 formal votes, and it too records swings little different from the polling day votes.
8.27pm. There are now 2415 postal votes in the count, which have swung in an almost identical fashion to the polling day votes.
7.49pm. All but three out of 22 polling day booths are in on the primary vote, with the TCP counts starting to catch up. As yet there are no pre-poll booths in, but we will presumably see at least some of those later in the evening, and perhaps also some postals.
7.39pm. And now I’m calling it for Labor, with 15 booths in on the primary and three on two-candidate, the projected Liberal swing now down to 10.0%.
7.34pm. With 13 booths in on the primary vote and two on tw0-party, my system is now basing its projection on the actually observed preference flow so far, which is more favourable to Labor than my estimates. The swing is accordingly down 10.4%, and the Labor win probability up to 98.6% — the system will call it when it gets to 99%.
7.18pm. We’re now up to seven booths on the primary vote, and my projection of the two-party Liberal swing remains short of a required 19.7% at 13.8%. However, my system is applying a wide margin-of-error to this due to the absence of two-candidate results, getting Labor as far as a 78.9% win probability. If the two-candidate results confirm my preference estimates are broadly correct, it will probably start calling it for Labor.
7.14pm. A fourth booth, which was probably the Gerroa Neighbourhood Centre, moves the dial slightly to the Liberals, their vote there picking by a handy 22.5%. This pushes the two-party swing up from 12.0% to 13.8%, though that’s still well short of the 19.7% they need. It should be noted that this is based off my pre-determined preference estimates, there being still no two-candidate preferred results.
7.05pm. Three booths in now on the primary vote, and while I’m projecting a 12.0% two-party swing to the Liberals, they actually need more like 20% — the figure flatters them because much of their normal support base cast a one-only vote for Gareth Ward in 2023.
7.03pm. The first result in is 386 primary votes from Kiama High, and while the Liberal vote neatly doubles to 21.0%, the gain is less than what they would not from Gareth Ward’s vote from 2023. However, it looks like this was quite a weak booth for Ward, and my system is well short of calling it.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Kiama by-election, occasioned by the forced resignation of independent Gareth Ward, and generally considered a strong opportunity for Labor to get its representation up from 45 to 46 in a chamber of 93. There are a few small rural booths in this electorate, so we will presumably be seeing some sort of result well within the hour.
Speak man was one of the few liberals in the coalition govt who did not get into trouble
In qld opv may help Labor.
@Kirsdarke says: Saturday, September 13, 2025 at 8:30 pm
“If Speakman goes, I think it’ll be Alister Henskens”
~~
If I was going solely off that article someone posted in a similar thread about NSW Liberals possibly being reduced to 22 seats, then it seems like the top candidate for the next leader of the NSW Liberal party would be Kellie Sloane (MP for Vaucluse)
If they don’t go to Alister Henskens then, as Kellie Sloane has indicated iirc that she’s not interested in the Liberal leadership at the moment, then Tim James in Willoughby might put his hand up. I, personally would prefer the guy who has been working collaboratively with Labor on their Housing reforms, whose name I can’t remember just now.
”Most of [the NSW Constitution] can be changed by an ordinary amendment Act in Parliament, although some sections, including those relating to major changes to the Legislative Council, can only be amended through a referendum of NSW voters.”
https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/about/Pages/The-Constitution-of-New-South-Wales.aspx
I just read an absolutely bizarre interview with Kate Dezarnaulds where she had only good things to say about Gareth Ward. Hmm.
Steve I disagree……if some future govt were to amend the nsw constitution to change the voting system to full preferential voting I consider that would be a valid.
Change. They could even use the existing language
Woot!
Kiama byelection tonight means BludgerTrack 2028 tomorrow.
Get keen guys!! Thanks WB
The premier, Chris Minns, said the result was humbling.
“My government views this result as an invitation to work even harder for the entire state,” he said on Saturday night.
“I want to thank the people of Kiama for putting their trust in Labor. We do not take that trust for granted. Kiama now has that voice inside government and I know Katelin will be a fierce advocate for her community.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/13/labor-claims-win-in-kiama-byelection-with-katelin-mcinerney-to-replace-convicted-rapist-gareth-ward
Knives are out, but the cupboard is bare of any talent… though Mark Speakman would be well advised to follow his initial thought of how to respond.
By 9.30pm, the primary vote count had Labor on 37 per cent with the Liberals on 26 per cent.
“Where do we go from here? We could go around that corner there, curl up in a foetal position, rock backwards and forwards and feel sorry for ourselves,” Speakman told downtrodden supporters.
“But we are fighters, we are Liberals and we will stick to our values.”
Members of Speakman’s party speaking anonymously this week told the Herald a primary result of anything less than 30 per cent of the vote would most likely be the death knell of his leadership.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/tense-wait-for-labor-frontrunner-as-polls-close-in-kiama-byelection-20250913-p5murq.html
A solid win for Chris Minns and NSW Labor.
As for Mark Speakman, yes, the knives will be out for him now, but what are the alternatives? None of them are that startling or amazing – Alistair Henskens, Natalie Ward, James Griffin.
There are huge problem issues for the government in Macquarie Street – housing, public transport, health are the 3 main ones. But I think I’d back Minns to win again in 2027 and probably get a majority in his own right too, by picking up seats like Ryde or Winston Hills.
Democracy Sausage 8:22am
+1. 60/40 is a very solid result at any time, let alone in a bi-election that normally swings against the government.
The Liberals are as short on new ideas as they are on new leaders.
Nick Dole of the ABC’s take – ‘Where to now?’ Liberals soul searching after heavy loss in Kiama by-election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-14/holder-nsw-kiama-by-election-analysis/105768772
Alistair Henskens has been undermining Speakman for months, leaking to the media. He clearly wants the top job, but should an obvious white ant be rewarded?
And for the constant critics of Chris Minns on Poll Bludger, they wouldn’t have liked this byelection result either.
Are there any hard right Libs looming as possible replacements after the almost inevitable removal of Speakman?
”
Democracy Sausagesays:
Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 8:22 am
A solid win for Chris Minns and NSW Labor.
As for Mark Speakman, yes, the knives will be out for him now, but what are the alternatives? None of them are that startling or amazing – Alistair Henskens, Natalie Ward, James Griffin.
There are huge problem issues for the government in Macquarie Street – housing, public transport, health are the 3 main ones. But I think I’d back Minns to win again in 2027 and probably get a majority in his own right too, by picking up seats like Ryde or Winston Hills.
”
”
Democracy Sausagesays:
Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 9:50 am
Alistair Henskens has been undermining Speakman for months, leaking to the media. He clearly wants the top job, but should an obvious white ant be rewarded?
And for the constant critics of Chris Minns on Poll Bludger, they wouldn’t have liked this byelection result either
”
DS
What am I not seeing about Minns leadership that other New South Wales people are seeing?
Or
is it that NSW Liberals are so pathetic?
Or
Kiama electorate voters have shown us that they are willing to vote differently to others. Therefore are they showing the same streak now?
Given the events being reported on globally, including in Australian streets, it is a sense of relief to see a 2PP vote of 60% in the NSW government
Those commanding media coverage are in a minority
They hide behind flags and religion
I do not understand; the press are saying a swing to labor, this is showing a swing to the Liberals?
As you can see here, the “notional two-party preferred” result in 2023 — i.e. the number of votes that expressed a preference for Labor over Liberal as opposed to vice-versa, excluding those which did neither — was 69.73% Labor, 30.27% Liberal. That wasn’t what decided the result though, because of Gareth Ward. This time it was though, and Labor’s margin was narrower — about 60-40. Hence the Liberal swing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2023_New_South_Wales_state_election_(Legislative_Assembly)#Kiama
Thanks William. I see now, very different election.
Labor claim the win because it went from independent (who was a Liberal) to Labor.
If you treat Gareth Ward as the real Liberal candidate, the swing to Labor was 49.24 to 60
A very comfortable Labor win.
Perhaps it is time to move to two candidate preferred to represent swings.
It would seem Ward has found where the Liberals draw the line.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gareth_Ward
“The moderates, Speakman’s faction, have the numbers in NSW, and lay claim to the leadership, often with the support of the centre right, unless there is a real star, like the former premier Dominic Perrottet, waiting in the wings.
On Sunday, there was no real appetite for an immediate spill, and Speakman made it clear he was not going anywhere. “Absolutely not,” he said when asked if he would resign.
Kellie Sloane, the shadow health spokesperson and member for Vaucluse, has ruled out moving a spill, and James Griffin, the shadow environment spokesperson and member for Manly, is also not eager.
If there were to be an imminent challenge, it would likely come from the right faction, as a way of testing the waters or stirring the pot. Its most ambitious member, the shadow attorney general, Alister Henskens, is said to lack the numbers to clinch the leadership.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/14/the-question-for-the-nsw-liberals-after-the-kiama-drubbing-is-can-anyone-do-better-than-mark-speakman
Before people get too keen to knife Speakman, it’d be a good idea to have a look at the not so recent history of the ALP in NSW, and ask if a continual knifing of opposition leaders did them any good.
This AAP article says nothing, but it does include a video clip of Katelin’s victory speech:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/liberals-federal-woes-blamed-for-by-election-thrashing/ar-AA1Muoxb
The sloan zones take on it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHNkmwOwkrY
The NSW Liberals have suffered a major hit from the toxic brand damage engulfing the federal party as well as ongoing leadership scuttlebutt, with the state opposition’s primary vote plummeting to just 28 per cent.
The result will heap pressure on NSW Liberal leader Mark Speakman, who will need to calm a jittery partyroom on Tuesday after the byelection loss in Kiama at the weekend, where Labor claimed the seat once held by convicted rapist and ex-Liberal MP Gareth Ward.
Resolve
ALP 38
lNP 28
GRN 10
IND 11
OTH 12
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-liberals-vote-plummets-as-brand-damage-hits-state-party-20250915-p5mv30.html