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Click here for full display of Kiama by-election results
End of evening. Labor has comfortably won the Kiama by-election with what I’m projecting to be 59.2% of the two-party vote. This pushes Labor to 46 seats out of 93 in the Legislative Assembly, such that the government will now rely on the support of one independent rather than two. It will be noted that the two-party swing is nonetheless a seemingly healthy 10.8% in favour of the Liberals, but this is somewhat deceptive: far more ballots had Labor higher than Liberal at the 2023 election because much of the conservative vote had gone to Gareth Ward, and as with all voters in New South Wales, a good proportion of these would have given him a first preference and left it at that. It may be more instructive to compare the result with the result with Ward’s 8.7% margin as a Liberal on the same boundaries in 2019, such that this can be seen as a Labor swing of around 18% off that base.
8.57pm. The big Albion Park early voting centre is the first such to report, with 7771 formal votes, and it too records swings little different from the polling day votes.
8.27pm. There are now 2415 postal votes in the count, which have swung in an almost identical fashion to the polling day votes.
7.49pm. All but three out of 22 polling day booths are in on the primary vote, with the TCP counts starting to catch up. As yet there are no pre-poll booths in, but we will presumably see at least some of those later in the evening, and perhaps also some postals.
7.39pm. And now I’m calling it for Labor, with 15 booths in on the primary and three on two-candidate, the projected Liberal swing now down to 10.0%.
7.34pm. With 13 booths in on the primary vote and two on tw0-party, my system is now basing its projection on the actually observed preference flow so far, which is more favourable to Labor than my estimates. The swing is accordingly down 10.4%, and the Labor win probability up to 98.6% — the system will call it when it gets to 99%.
7.18pm. We’re now up to seven booths on the primary vote, and my projection of the two-party Liberal swing remains short of a required 19.7% at 13.8%. However, my system is applying a wide margin-of-error to this due to the absence of two-candidate results, getting Labor as far as a 78.9% win probability. If the two-candidate results confirm my preference estimates are broadly correct, it will probably start calling it for Labor.
7.14pm. A fourth booth, which was probably the Gerroa Neighbourhood Centre, moves the dial slightly to the Liberals, their vote there picking by a handy 22.5%. This pushes the two-party swing up from 12.0% to 13.8%, though that’s still well short of the 19.7% they need. It should be noted that this is based off my pre-determined preference estimates, there being still no two-candidate preferred results.
7.05pm. Three booths in now on the primary vote, and while I’m projecting a 12.0% two-party swing to the Liberals, they actually need more like 20% — the figure flatters them because much of their normal support base cast a one-only vote for Gareth Ward in 2023.
7.03pm. The first result in is 386 primary votes from Kiama High, and while the Liberal vote neatly doubles to 21.0%, the gain is less than what they would not from Gareth Ward’s vote from 2023. However, it looks like this was quite a weak booth for Ward, and my system is well short of calling it.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Kiama by-election, occasioned by the forced resignation of independent Gareth Ward, and generally considered a strong opportunity for Labor to get its representation up from 45 to 46 in a chamber of 93. There are a few small rural booths in this electorate, so we will presumably be seeing some sort of result well within the hour.
I’ll put myself down for a “rare-ish” ALP pickup in a by-election when they are in gov’t.
Minns is currently sitting on 45 seats.
47 = outright majority.
Possibly a tight final 3 between the ALP-Libs-Dezarnaulds. Perhaps the preferences of candidate “Mr Beer” may decide the outcome.
I think Minns will be sitting on 46 seats within a couple of hours.
I reckon this by-election will either be very quick or very slow. It depends if Kate Dezarnaulds (IND) gets more votes than Serena Copley (Liberal).
If it turns out to be a Labor-Liberal contest, I think it’d be an easy Labor win. If not, it’ll probably be a narrow result between Labor-Independent.
Probably a Labor win.
I think so too Arange. It’s got a bit of a feel like the Black (SA) by-election about 10 months ago.
Minns seems to be on top of his game, whereas I don’t really hear much about Speakman.
Everything suggests Labor should win this… you don’t need a “system” to figure it out.
jt1983says:
Saturday, September 13, 2025 at 6:33 pm
“Everything suggests Labor should win this… you don’t need a “system” to figure it out.”
I never said you did, mate
I’ll just clarify that “rare” comment too, as labor has picked up several seats – when in gov’t – at by elections.
Black (SA-State) and Aston (Vic Federally).
So it’s not so “rare”.
Anyway, I’m thinking the ALP may pull a primary in the high 30’s, maybe tipping over the 40 mark.
Looks like no results as yet, but can only be minutes away.
Thirteen candidates slows things up.
Dezarnaulds should pick up the majority of Green preferences.
Might make that interesting?
All good WB.
Reminds me a bit of the NT election last year. Took ages for the first few votes to come through.
Can’t be too far away.
Bullbar says:
Saturday, September 13, 2025 at 6:52 pm
Dezarnaulds should pick up the majority of Green preferences.
Might make that interesting?
==========
She’s got to get a good primary to begin with. Having said that she did OK at the Gilmore (Fed) election.
I think this will be a classic ALP v LIB tussle with her coming in 3rd… and Mr Beer coming 4th
Minns seems to be a fairly popular and competent bloke, similar to the S.A. Premier.
I think it will be a solid ALP win.
Greens outpolling Dezernauld?
Fantastic start.
Bullbar @ #9 Saturday, September 13th, 2025 – 6:52 pm
Possibly, but NSW has Optional Preferential Voting, so there’ll probably be a large number of Greens voters that just vote “1” Greens and that’s that, their vote exhausts.
Looking like a “stonking” ALP win to me!
Agree that NSW optional preferential system drains the flow of preference however Greens how to vote card does preference the community independent, so that depends on how many Green voters take notice.
Nevertheless , agree that this is a very likely Labor win.
Greens are running 4th at the moment.
The Kangaroo Valley booth – inland with a bunch of tree changers and old settler families is v.interesting primaries
GRN 87
LIB 99
SFF 94
IND/TEAL 100
ALP 170
Is this the future of regional Australia?
Vlad – Dezernaulds has just overtaken the Greens.
Reset your device and read the comments from WB at the top of the thread in the intro page, as he explains the booth swings etc. The rest of us don’t really know the booth swings from the 2023 state election, but his computer does. He’s just reset it at 7.14pm. Sorry, can’t explain any better.
nadia88 @ #14 Saturday, September 13th, 2025 – 7:15 pm
Yep, looks like that. At the moment Labor is leading the Liberals by 9% (34-25%) and Kate Dezarnaulds is trailing way behind on 12%.
.. and it looks like the SFF will overtake the Greens soon too.
Geez, Albion Park Rail – encroaching south Wollongong suburbs showing their colours..
GRN 80
Legalise Canabbis 122
IND/TEAL 65
And SFF 81 – these were a threat to the Coalition base some NSW elections ago, and maybe have a shot again?
Sounds like the legal weed party is the real threat.
I’m starting the think that the Greens need to have a period of introspection.
I don’t think these numbers for them are looking too flash.
William, with your swing calculations – they are masking the de-frocked Liberal Gareth Ward vote from last time.
The 14.5% swing away from Labor and to Liberal is misleading. If that is all people saw, the impression would be a great night for Liberal.
Not sure what you could do with this type of situation?
You calling it sprocket_?
The current numbers, I gather, are today’s vote. We should start getting the pre-polls soon.
It looks to me like a fairly solid ALP gain.
Preference flows
# % Swing
Preferences to Labor 79 33.9% +3.1%
Preferences to Liberal 32 13.7% -1.4%
Exhausted 122 52.4% -1.7%
For those who don’t appreciate what Optional Preference Voting means – this table of the early 2PP count is telling
I’m calling it for Labor too, they’re too far ahead in primary votes and most of the other votes are exhausting anyway.
I can’t work out why it’s showing a swing to the libs of 10.4%
Nadia
William’s projection is 98.6% to ALP – but he has been known to be wrong 🙂
15 booths now reporting, with major party leads
ALP 13
LIB 2
The Liberal two-party vote is coming off an artificially low starting point, because Gareth Ward got 38.8% last time and the Liberal only got 12.0%, and a lot of the former were just-vote-one votes from people who normally vote Liberal. With Ward’s voters drifting back to Liberal this time, you would expect the Liberal two-party vote to improve, and it has — but only by half as much as they need.
Ok thanks Mr Bowe. I forgot he sat as an indie last time.
I’m following your updates in the thread header too.
Great! My home town returns to the Labor fold. I’m sure Speakman’s position is secure.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/61914
WB’s computer has called it. An ALP gain.
Primaries… at 7.54pm
ALP 36%
LIB 25%
GRN 9.5%
Dez 11.7%
Fairly solid ALP pick up.
And I was thinking candidate “Mr Joshua Beer” would come in 4th, only going by his surname.
He’s come in 8th. Must be wine drinkers in Kiama.
The preferences exhaust rate is crazy. I’ve never really paid much attention to it, but currently 27.8% Labor, 10.8% lib, 61.4% exhausted with roughly 4k counted.
While general consensus has always been it hurts labor as greens preferences can’t always go to them, but will that change next election as teal/independent/PHON/UAP/SFF don’t go back to libs?
Tom @ #35 Saturday, September 13th, 2025 – 8:02 pm
That is an interesting question, and is probably holding heavy on the minds of the Queensland LNP who wanted to turn back their voting system from Full Preferential Voting to Optional Preferential Voting.
Their next election isn’t due until October 2028, but this result might give them some pause, especially if non-LNP right-wing parties get a lot of popularity.
Tom, it depends on the discipline of the voters.
I agree though, the exhaust rate of 61% is not ideal.
We’re going to have OPV re-introduced in QLD soon.
Without knowing for sure, I believe OPV is embedded in the NSW constitution and was inserted there by Labor many decades ago.
The result is not a huge surprise given the last elections result – the bigger surprise was actually that result which re-elected Ward.
Given the fairly poor showing by the Liberal candidate, will Speakman’s leadership be on the line? They are not going to be winning elections pulling in 25% of the primary vote.
B. S. Fairman @ #38 Saturday, September 13th, 2025 – 8:09 pm
For what it’s worth, Sky After Dark absolutely despise Mark Speakman, so his leadership is definitely on the line after this.
Who is next in line in NSW if Speakman goes? There was a Murdoch article last week about the lady in maybe Woolahra where she calls herself the next premier but I’d never heard of her. Is there anyone else? Most of the high profile libs from covid era seem to have gone.
Tom
Unfortunately, Unlike QLD regarding preferential system, NSW Optional preferential system can only be changed by referendum.
In QLD, the government can change the preferential system if their Unicameral House votes to change it.
So, NSW Optional preferential system cannot be changed that easily. It is a own goal bu Wran Labor government.
”Without knowing for sure, I believe OPV is embedded in the NSW constitution and was inserted there by Labor many decades ago.”
It was legislated in 1980, being added to the section of the NSW Constitution that requires a referendum to change, so NSW is stuck with it.
The change was made in 1980, before the rise of the Greens, when preferences from the historic DLP helping the Coalition win election after election was recent memory.
Just goes to show, poorly thought out decisions can bite you on the bum 45 years later and beyond.
https://antonygreen.com.au/tag/optional-preferential-voting/
Speakman didn’t seem that keen to take the leadership; there was an inordinate amount of time before he accepted it after the last (general) election.
SAD will despise any moderate who becomes leader. They’d probably be happy with Latham as premier.
Tom @ #40 Saturday, September 13th, 2025 – 8:20 pm
If Speakman goes, I think it’ll be Alister Henskens, but I say that with no knowledge of who is in the field at the moment. Just that he seems to be the most senior NSW in the lower house after Speakman at the moment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alister_Henskens
Is it still an own goal though?
Looking at 2025 federal election 1st preferences in NSW.
Non ALP left parties – Greens 11%, Legalise Cannabis .9% and AJP .2% for a total of 12.1%
Non LNP right parties – PHON 6%, ToP 1.8%, FF 1.3%, Libertarian 1.1% and SFF 0.5% for a total of 10.7%
Then throw in independents with 9.7%, which obviously aren’t all right wing voters but would be a big block of the teal vote, there would be more right wing votes going to minors than left.
Pretty similar in Kiama tonight it seems.
I think the main message from Kiama today is that where it was previously an IND-LIB vs. ALP seat that was held by less than 1% that it seems to be swinging to ALP vs. LIB by at least 60-40% that the NSW Liberals are doing badly while NSW Labor seems to be going along well.
I wouldn’t read too much into tonight’s results. I suspect a large part of the electorate are embarrassed about voting for Ward (who they identify as a Lib) last time and today switched to a non-Lib/Ward candidate. Next time, who knows?
I would question whether it is possible to entrench opv in the constitution without a prior referendum. But no one plans to change it anytime soon
Gap alp /lib approx 11%
2pp ” ” ”
Which means the preferences were largely neutral counting exhausted votes
Although Speakman always looked like a placeholder leader, I can’t see a natural clear choice of leader amongst the others.
Always have to wonder if the result is not mentioned in backrooms at the federal level too.