Three big new poll results, a recurring theme being a surge in support for One Nation at the Coalition’s expense:
• The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead out from 56-44 to 58-42, with the Coalition recording its worst primary vote in the history of the series, which goes back to 1985. Labor is steady at 36%, with the Coalition down three to 27%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation up one to 10%. Both leaders’ personal ratings have deteriorated: Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 45% and up four on disapproval to 50%, while Sussan Ley is down three to 32% and up five to 49%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister unchanged at 51-31. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1264.
• Nine Newspapers has the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from a blowout 59-41 to 55-45. The primary votes are Labor 35% (down two), Coalition 27% (down two), Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 12% (up three). Anthony Albanese is up one on approval (or to be precise, good plus very good on “performance in recent weeks”) to 44% and steady on disapproval (poor plus very poor) at 45%; Sussan Ley is up three on both, to 41% and 32%; and Albanese leads 38-26 on preferred prime minister, in from 41-26. The biggest movements on the breakdowns are by gender, with Labor down seven among women to 31% and up three among men to 39%, last month’s result being clearly the more orthodox of the two. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1800.
• The Financial Review yesterday brought its second RedBridge Group poll since the election, the first having been in late June, which has Labor at 35% (down two), the Coalition on 30% (down one), the Greens on 11% (steady) and One Nation on 11% (up two). Labor’s headline two-party lead of 53.5-46.5 is their weakest in any poll since the election, but it’s partly down to respondent-allocated preference flows: applying flows from the election would have it at about 54.5-45.5. The poll had a long field work period, from August 19 to September 8, and a big sample of 5326. Breakdowns by age cohort, gender and location consequently have some meat on their bones: the biggest movement is a seven-point shift form Labor to the Greens among “Gen-Z”, which I take to mean 18-to-34, putting them at 38% and 31% with the Coalition on just 18%. UPDATE: Full report here, including breakdowns for the four biggest states.
The other big story on the polling front of late has been the emphasis placed by now former Coalition front-bencher Jacinta Price on a suggestion by Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group that Labor’s two-party vote among the Indian dispora might be as high as 85%. Samaras later clarified that a “more appropriate characterisation” would have it in the “mid-60s”. This would seem consistent with some more robust data points that have been doing the rounds since:
• The Co-operative Election Survey from before the May election gave Labor a primary vote advantage over the Coalition of 45% to 34% among those of “south Asian” ethnic identity.
• A survey of Indian-origin residents conducted by YouGov for the Carnegie Institute before the 2022 election had it at 43% to 26%, translating to about 47% to 29% upon exclusion of the 9% uncommitted. The former had a national sample of 4012, which presumably encompassed a south Asian sub-sample of about 300, while the latter had a sample of 800.
• Roy Morgan has aggregated its polling among respondents born in India and China going back to mid-2023, which finds both distinctive as major party voters as well as leaning to Labor. Compared with a Morgan average over the period that I calculate at Labor 31.9%, Coalition 36.2%, Greens 13.1% and One Nation 5.5%, the result among Indian-born respondents is Labor 45%, Coalition 39%, Greens 8% and One Nation 2%, which I estimate to be about 56-44 to Labor on two-party preferred; and among Chinese-born respondents, Labor 48%, Coalition 34%, Greens 11% and One Nation 1%, which I make at 61-39. There were 1332 respondents in the Indian-born sample and 738 in the Chinese.
Trump wants to extort $100k from employers of high-skilled foreign workers. This will encourage firms to locate their newest recruits in centres outside the U.S. What’s not to like about this? Trump is downsizing the knowledge economy in the US, in the same way as he’s downsizing everything else other than the repression of dissent.
Countries that want to build their tech-heavy industries are being given a free kick by Trump. Amazing. We should be recruiting among this firms hurt by the exclusionary rationing of valuable labour in the US.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 9:22 pm
25% in Australia’s largest state is nothing short of catastrophic
Yes. It’s a delight to behold. The Reactionaries are determined to alienate themselves from voters almost completely. I’m jubilant. The treacherous, the dim-witted, the hollow-hearted imbeciles that have possession of the Lib-Nat dress-up box will soon be offering everything at a garage sale before dissolving themselves. Wonderful. Absolutely wonderful.
It really depends upon where those deserting the Liberals are going. If they are going to Labor, Greens and Teals then all the climate denial, dogwhistling and bluster about patriotism, migration, Australia Day, trans people and “free speech” will help not one whit. If the vote has mostly gone to One Nation, however, maybe some of them will come back, but that wouldn’t be enough. The numbers given above don’t show the One Nation vote.
It seems as though the Coalition are pinning their hopes on some sort of rerun of the 2010-2013 playbook.
Why staggers me, tbh, is that 25% of people would vote for the LNP? Who are these people? What do they want for this world?
And, sadly, I do think their record low vote has something to do with Ley’s gender. RWNJs are incredibly sexist, and they are all the support they have left.
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On a different note, the latest George Brandis in the 9Fax paper is more appalling than usual. George needs to let it go!
Coalition losing big time with young people and big cities with asian populations (and combinations of both groups). Have managed to destroy trust in last 5 years in a big way.
The OZ headline is saying the LNP has a primary of 18% amongst < 35's.
And in NSW, the overall primary is 25% – These figures are disaster territory. NSW is Australia's largest state.
Smells a bit like a hit job on Ms Ley.
We've had the CPAC thing up here in Brisbane this weekend, where the future Lib policies were ironed out. Half the Skynews presenters were here too apparently.
They obviously now need a leader to implement what came out of CPAC. Ley is not part of the CPAC club – I understand she wasn't even present. She probably wasn't even invited.
Now, coincidentally, we have some devastating polling revealed, of which the headline is 25% for the Libs, in her home state.
I think it may be a well orchestrated hit job.
The message is very simple – "Ley out".
I hope the LNP take inspiration from Campbell Newman 2012 and invite Tony Abbott to return as opposition leader from outside the parliament.
Clearly that is what LNP supporter wants.
Hack says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 9:34 pm
nadia88 says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 9:22 pm
25% in Australia’s largest state is nothing short of catastrophic
Yes. It’s a delight to behold. The Reactionaries are determined to alienate themselves from voters almost completely……..
========
Hack,
Off the top of my head, I don’t know whether the Indian diaspora is bigger in Sydney or Melbourne.
I’m not too sure why that Junior Coalition Shadow Minister {Price} chose to “speak out of portfolio” and alienate this group of voters. Going by the poll number of 25%, I’m guessing the Indian diaspora may be larger in Sydney. The Libs deserve this primary figure in Australia’s largest state.
“Now, coincidentally, we have some devastating polling revealed, of which the headline is 25% for the Libs, in her home state.”
Are you claiming the polling was rigged or was push polling to get the desired outcome?
Note: I have no problem with your argument that some at CPAC are doing a hit job on Ley. Just the bit about the Newspoll Quarterly release data having anything to do with it.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 9:56 pm
The OZ headline is saying the LNP has a primary of 18% amongst < 35's.
And in NSW, the overall primary is 25% – These figures are disaster territory. NSW is Australia's largest state.
Smells a bit like a hit job on Ms Ley.
The Reactionaries are doing a hit job on themselves. They believe, very very deeply, that they are born to rule. They imagine they are politically infallible. Others might make mistakes. Voters might make mistakes. But they are never wrong. How could they be? By their lights they are born to exercise power.
They are infatuated with Reactionaries in the US and the UK….quite blinded by their passion for all things reactionary. As it happens, I know more than a few of them. They are besotted. They have talked themselves into believing the straight-out idiotic. Because they are vain, proud, stubborn, phobic and know-all hypocrites they will not inquire into their plight. They will continue to blame the world for their decline.
Their political demise cannot come too soon. Be gone, say I. Be gone.
These are quarterly Newspoll breakdowns (released around the time they usually are) so most of the surveying would have been done before recent events. It’s not new polling.
Entropy says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 10:09 pm
“Now, coincidentally, we have some devastating polling revealed, of which the headline is 25% for the Libs, in her home state.”
Are you claiming the polling was rigged or was push polling to get the desired outcome?
===========
Either push polling, or the aggregate numbers were knowingly bad and they decided to release them, post CPAC.
They’re trying to tip her out.
Piastri crashes out of Azerbaijan GP on lap 1
nadia88 says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 10:07 pm
Price’s imbecilic and dishonest remarks about Indians were only a part of September’s events. More tellingly Price and others have refused to support Ley and have been tearing each other down. They’ve chosen to fight over migrants. That is, they have disclosed their empty, vile, racist reactionary hearts on a Trumpist point. They are echoing Trumpist hate and the violations that enable it. They have aligned themselves with the Nazis. Voters will have none of this. Not the Indian diaspora. Not the Chinese or African diasporas. Not the young. Not the roughly 90% of voters who have always spurned One Nation.
The Reactionaries have disgraced themselves. Voters will not soon forget this latest reactionary betrayal.
nadia88says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 10:14 pm
Entropy says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 10:09 pm
“Now, coincidentally, we have some devastating polling revealed, of which the headline is 25% for the Libs, in her home state.”
Are you claiming the polling was rigged or was push polling to get the desired outcome?
===========
Either push polling, or the aggregate numbers were knowingly bad and they decided to release them, post CPAC.
They’re trying to tip her out.
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While I have no doubt some at CPAC are trying to do a hit job on Ley. The idea that quarterly Newspoll release data was timed to coincide with this hit job. Is a conspiracy theory to far for me. I back what BT at 10:13 pm says on the polling release timing and content.
People are more interested in joining sporting teams than joining political parties these days.
The Newspoll Quarterlies are timed to come out… every quarter.
Perhaps after being deposed Ley might don Teal colours. At least that way she might continue her Parliamentary career. There must be a few possible defectors. Climate 200 should talk to them.
I’m not sure she has another 3 years in her if she gets turfed out as opposition leader.
Would you want to bum around Narrandera & Albury with your performantive Akubra hat as a fake independent in the deep south-west of NSW when you could be living it up in the glorious Gold Coast beach property taxpayers helped fund, when your retirement is one of the few left that still runs under the old parliamentary pension system?
It’ll be more interesting to see if the Nationals or Libs can beat Michelle Milthorpe. Going way back, Ley won the seat against the Nationals by just 0.28% 2PP, they’ll be itching to have it back after giving it up when Tim Fischer resigned.
Sussan Ley turns 64 in December. She’ll be 66 when the next election is due. If she is deposed from the leadership, she’ll be leaving Parliament, probably the next day and at any rate before the election.
nadia88says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:53 pm
Boerwar says:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 7:49 pm
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AI ! …. All will around in another form and manifest itself as need be.
Can’t see Ley sticking around, and while Ferrer is similar to Indi, and has elected independents to state parliament, but unless enough of the local Liberal Party backed Ley it’s hard to see her holding it as a teal independent. Oddly, for all the noise Ley could survive until the next election because does Hastie want to lead to a curtain defeat ending his political career.
Bravo, Prime Minister!
“Australia joins UK and Canada in formally recognising Palestinian state:
Move comes as Anthony Albanese tries to secure meeting with Donald Trump and amid warnings that recognition could spark ‘punitive measures’ from the US”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/21/australia-joins-uk-and-canada-in-formally-recognising-palestinian-state
This is a fair minded and open hearted decision by our Government. Thank you!
Nadia88,
That’s been the trend much before the contemporary use of the concept of “keyboard”
“hyperventilation” remains a popular menu item as before the popular use of “keyboard”, with the real change being no “subscription” but rather a variety of condiments and a broad selection of “me first” additives.
“Australia formally recognises state of Palestine as Anthony Albanese arrives in US”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-21/australia-formally-recognises-state-of-palestine/105799238
Spiteful conduct from the US there.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 9:43 pm
The pace of change of technology in the next ten years will leave the concept of “coalition” floundering.
The voters currently representing the agricultural sector will be main recipients of the prodigious gains from technology.
The voters currently representing last century’s Liberals will have departed to a “better” place for their beliefs.
Then there’s AI!
Our Government’s official statement, recognising Palestine:
Susan Ley may have the pilots license but will opt for a career change, move to helicopters, and opt out at the first available chance.
The CPAC list a set of ideals most would be unable to be eligible to claim.
The Coalition has become the “bubble and squeak” available for a cohort, dreaming of past glories.
The coalition, a amalgam no longer in demand, as a result of technology change, the new reality and tight blinkers , is hankering for past glories.
“The one true church” has evolved thankfully with some coalition believers pining for a return of Tridentine Mass and an assumed authority.
I hope I’m around to observe the changes coming in the next ten years.
Profound somewhat understated!
New thread.
Tk
Did she have her handcuffs?
You really missed out there
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I just hope it was a gun in her pocket.
Been on a walk with the eldest on a Tassie mountain. It snowed. Doesn’t get better. Thanks Tassie.